After months (years?) of drama, Jackson finally got his “bag”
this offseason, securing the financial windfall of a lifetime.
Now the story for Jackson turns to the next chapter, as the Ravens
have rebuilt the offense, forgoing the “exotic” run-based
offense of Greg Roman, and instead turning to former Georgia and
Tampa Bay Buc offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s pass heavy
scheme.
The Ravens seem intent on using Jackson’s arm more than his legs,
and it remains to be seen what that will look like. He hasn’t
always been the most efficient or effective passer, especially
in the playoffs where things become magnified. He certainly won’t
have the lack of receiving talent excuse to lean on, as Baltimore
spent major cash and draft capital signing Odell Beckham Jr. and
adding Zay Flowers in the 1st round. Throw in 2021 1st round pick
Rashod Bateman, and elite move tight end Mark Andrews, and Jackson
will easily have the best weapons he’s had since entering the
NFL.
I do know that Jackson remains one of the most athletically gifted
players to ever play quarterback, and the Ravens will make good
on the attempt to lower the number of designed runs for him. Jackson
might have the highest volatility of the top-5 quarterbacks as his
range of outcomes spans “best fantasy player on the planet” to “looking
up at Geno Smith”. Look for Jackson to set career highs in pass
attempts and career low in rush attempts. While his 2019 video game
numbers remain legendary, his legs, and passing upside make him
worth it.
After missing the entire 2021 season and more than half the games
in 2022 with lingering issues, this is a big year for the 4th
year back. There is no denying that Dobbins oozes talent and big
play ability. He averaged well over 5.5 yards per carry in his
career, and after getting a clean-up procedure done in Week 7,
Dobbins returned in Week 14 to dominate the rest of the season,
averaging 88 yards on the ground in the final five games. His
combination of power and speed is similar to Nick Chubb, and with
the added threat of the passing game, Dobbins will never see a
stacked box.
Dobbins has also been the darling of the offseason, and seems
to be everyone’s breakout candidate at running back. As a coordinator
at Georgia and the Tampa Bay Bucs, Todd Monken’s system seemed
to favor a lead back. This would be a huge break from the Greg
Roman days of a 3-headed backfield, and just another reason to
be high on Dobbins. With a check box in the talent, scheme, and
health category, what’s not to like about him? If Jackson and
Gus Edwards steal a few less touchdowns down at the goal-line,
Dobbins should easily threaten double digit touchdowns, and has
nowhere to go but up in the receiving category.
Every arrow seems to be pointing up for the former Buckeye, but
like that annoying tag on a new t-shirt, something is nagging
at me. His contract situation could be an issue, but this will
likely be a non-story come late July as he has absolutely no leverage.
For me, it’s still the volume. In order to truly enter elite
(Chubb) territory, he’s going to have a see 50-75 more touches
than he’s ever had in his career and STILL maintain that
elite efficiency, or have a boatload of touchdowns. While there
is certainly a path to an RB1 finish, I think he should be treated
as a high end RB2 with a RB1 upside.
Edwards looked rusty at times in his return from his own torn
ACL, and was a near fantasy non-factor after Dobbins returned
fully healthy in Week 14. Despite averaging at least 5.0 yards
per carry in every season of his career, Edwards has always felt
like a marginal player. While he fit perfectly in the run-based
Greg Roman scheme, and likely got more carries than he would have
on most other teams, I think his time as a standalone fantasy
player are over. Edwards has averaged a little over four receptions
per season, and is a one trick pony in an offense that’s
trying to evolve. He’ll undoubtedly play an important role
for the Ravens in a practical sense, but in fantasy, his value
rests solely as a handcuff to Dobbins.
The last time we saw Beckham on the field, he was on his way
to winning Super Bowl MVP. But a 2nd torn ACL ruined that Cinderella
ending and Beckham Jr. spent 2022 rehabbing and seeking out his
next payday. Inexplicably he found that in Baltimore this spring,
signing a 1-year deal to prove to the NFL that his game still
lives up to his name.
Unfortunately for the mercurial OBJ, I think those days are long
gone. Since reaching the stratosphere during his first three years
in the NFL, injuries and ineffective play have made him an afterthought.
He hasn’t been a fantasy relevant player since 2019, and
even then, he was barely a WR3. But he hyped his way to the Ravens,
and slots in as the WR1 on a team that has no doubt loaded the
receiver room with talent. How quickly he can build chemistry
with Jackson, as they all learn a new system is not the only question
Beckham Jr. faces. The specter of two torn ACLs, and a host of
other leg injuries loom large. Despite what he thinks of himself,
he’s not the player he was in his last elite season with
the Giants in 2016, and is more of a complimentary player at this
stage of his career. If he can stay healthy and play 14 or so
games, he’ll have a nice season, and maybe win you a week,
but the bar for starting fantasy receivers has risen greatly over
the last few seasons, and the position and his own team is flush
with young talent.
2022 was mostly a wash for Bateman as a promising start was dashed
by a broken foot in Week 8. Health has been an issue for the former
1st rounder, as he’s only played 19 games in his two seasons.
Even more concerning is that even after seven months of rehab,
Bateman still needed a “cortisone type shot” in his
foot and missed several days of minicamp earlier this month. While
Bateman and the Ravens hope that will be a non-issue by Week 1,
the signing of OBJ might have a bigger impact on Bateman’s
role than his foot. Finances and hype have knocked Bateman down
a peg in the pecking order, and that’s not a great place
to be on a team transitioning into an entirely new offense.
At best Bateman is the third passing option between Andrews and
OBJ, and will stay there until he proves otherwise by being healthy
and efficient. I haven’t even mentioned the addition of
22nd overall pick Zay Flowers, and how he’ll be another
mouth to feed. I do think one of these receivers is going to be
a surprise fantasy value, but like lots of players on this offense,
the range of outcomes varies wildly. For now, add Bateman at the
end of your drafts and hope the foot holds up.
It will certainly take a few things to work in his favor, like
the Ravens becoming a top 5 passing team, or injuries taking out
Bateman and OBJ, but there is a world where Zay Flowers becomes
a fantasy steal. With multiverses being so popular at the box
office lately, imagine a scenario where Flowers is thrust into
an every-down role because of nagging injuries to the starters.
He’s uncoverable in the slot, looks like his role model
Steve Smith Sr., and Jackson has evolved as passer. He uses his
slippery wiggle to make plays after the catch and becomes a reliable
weekly WR3.
Unfortunately, there is an equally possible scenario where the
receivers stay healthy, or the passing game struggles to gel and
Flowers is deployed sparingly as he develops as a young player
(much like Steve Smith Jr.). If you’ve noticed a boom/bust
sort of theme to this Ravens outlook you aren’t wrong. Draft
them in the right spot and they could contribute to a championship
run. Overdraft, or rely too heavily on any one guy, and disaster
could loom. Either way, I think Flowers is a year away from being
a bigger part of offense, but don’t be afraid to make him
a priority waiver add.
Quarterback injuries and his own painful shoulder injury contributed
to a “down” season for Andrews last year. Despite
the struggles, his 73 receptions easily led the team, and were
the 2nd most of his career. He was one of only four tight ends
in the NFL to see over 100 targets and despite the addition of
OBJ, and the change in offensive scheme, Andrews remains in the
top-3 conversation at tight end. While his epic 2021 season will
be an aberration in his career, he’s still the most talented
and refined pass catcher on this offense, and has the most rapport
with Jackson. He’s a good bet to once again lead the team
in receptions, and offers the highest positional floor of all
the Ravens skill position players.
