Nice mathup for Luck: The Saints have given
up the second most fantasy points to Quarterbacks.
Grab a Helmet
Carson
Palmer vs BAL (Mon): As the bye week crunch hits for
real this week, I’m not going to apologize for going to drink
from the Palmer well two weeks in a row; such is life for a fantasy
writer doing his best to get more right than wrong. Palmer had an
up and down week against the Steelers last week throwing for a million
yards (ok it was 421), but only one score and two befuddling interceptions.
This passing game has mismatches all over the place with John Brown
a legitimate deep threat, Fitzgerald having a renaissance season,
and Michael Floyd showing signs of life. Like Palmer, I’m
going to target Baltimore’s secondary relentlessly in this
column, and with good reason. They are surrendering a league high
26 FPts/G to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, and Colin Kaepernick
looked like a Hall of Famer against them last week. Look for a big
game Monday night from Palmer and his pass catchers.
Andrew
Luck v. NO: Buoyed by some garbage time points, Luck
had easily his best statistical game of the season last Sunday vs
the Pats. His shoulder looked relatively healthy, and best of all,
he didn’t turn the ball over. Luck is ripe for a big follow-up in
a game the Colts have to win. The Saints come to town giving up
the 9th-most passing yards in the league. They’ve also allowed quarterbacks
to throw for 11 touchdowns while picking off only 2 passes. Look
for a heavy dose of 3 and 4 receiver sets to help the Colts get
out to a big lead and lean on Gore to bleed the clock. It’s been
a rocky road for Luck owners this season, but he’s a must start
QB1 in this match-up.
Matt
Ryan @ TEN: Despite being at the helm of an ultra-effective
offense, Ryan hasn’t quite been the fantasy darling we might
expect. The yardage has been good, but fantasy money is made with
touchdowns, and this is where Ryan has fallen short. With only eight
touchdowns in six games, he’s on pace for his lowest touchdown
total since his rookie year. The reason doesn’t much lay in
the lap of Ryan, but more on the legs of Devonta Freeman. Freeman
has been the stud of studs, especially with red zone rushing touchdowns.
Look for a pedestrian yardage day from Ryan because of potential
big lead game flow issues, but I expect Tennessee to stack the box
inside the 20, where Ryan can take advantage of single coverage.
A multi-touchdown day, and a low end QB1 finish could be in the
cards.
Grab a Headset
Blake
Bortles v. BUF: Undoubtedly improved from a year ago,
Bortles has been a legitimately viable fantasy QB. Heck, he’s
been more than viable, as he currently sits as the overall QB4
in most fantasy leagues. With numbers clearly inflated by several
blowout losses, Bortles continues to throw touchdowns to the wrong
team, and has completed 60% of his passes only once this season.
The 1-5 Jags head across the pond to face a dysfunctional Bills
defense. The griping from Bills defensive players has started,
and the bloom is fading from the Rex Ryan rose. Look for the Bills
to come out aggressive and oppressive as they make Bortles’s life
miserable. With star in the making receiver Allen Robinson banged
up, and running back T.J. Yeldon still hobbled with a groin injury,
the Jaguars will be looking at a long afternoon.
Matthew
Stafford v. MIN: Why did it take six games for the
Lions to open up the pass offense and take some shots downfield?
For the first time in a few years, Stafford and Megatron played
some schoolyard football, and the result was Stafford’s highest
yardage game since a 488-yard outing in 2013. The 4 passing touchdowns
were the most since 2013 as well. Joe Lombardi, the Lions OC,
needs to realize that Stafford isn’t and will never be as cerebral
as his former quarterback Drew Brees. Stafford is going to win
games with arm talent and challenging the defense down the field.
Maybe Stafford returns to his gunslinger roots and this offense
opens up and becomes as deadly as it should be. My guess is the
big game came against a shoddy Chicago defense, and the stink
on this Lions offense isn’t washed away. Minnesota is fairly strong
against the pass, yielding only 6 touchdowns through the air,
2nd best in the NFL. I’d need to see Stafford protect the ball
better, and follow last week’s game up with another quality outing
before I start him will full confidence.
Sam
Bradford @ CAR: Inaccurate, immobile, and turnover
prone is no way to succeed in the Chip Kelly scheme. Blame on
it on two years of rust if you want, but if you are a Bradford
owner hoping to see some return on the risky investment you paid,
it might be a long wait. Bradford’s middling fantasy numbers
are boosted by volume, rather than solid play. He’s thrown
more interceptions than touchdowns in three of the first six games,
and other than a hot half or quarter here or there, has simply
not been able to move this offense. Let’s forget the fact
that he’s such a non-threat to run that defenders totally
ignore him on the read options and crush the running backs behind
the line of scrimmage. If the Eagles hadn’t invested a 2nd-
and 4th-round pick in him, I’m fully convinced he’d
be on the bench by now. To top it off this week’s match-up
is miserable on the road against Carolina. It’s time to
seriously consider other options if you were all-in on Bradford,
but if you have to roll with him, anything more than mid-level
QB2 numbers would be a surprise.
