At this point in the fantasy season, sometimes all you need is
a healthy body. With Devonta Freeman banged up, and Ito Smith in
I.R., Hill ascends into the starting role for the Falcons. Decent
in relief of Freeman last week, Hill piled up 21 touches in three
quarters of work, so you know the volume is going to be there this
week against the Panthers. Fresh off getting flattened on the ground
by the Packers, Carolina’s 14 rushing touchdowns surrendered to
running backs is by far the most in the league. Hill, a former 5th
round pick, won’t jump off the page physically, but he’s a three-down
grinder. With opportunity and the match-up in his favor, you could
do worse this week.
With Breida out and the Niners likely to put it in the guts of their
running backs 40 times this week because of a banged up receiving
corps, Mostert could be staring straight into the eyes of FLEX value.
When he’s been the 1B runner this season Mostert has produced,
piling up a few big plays to go along with two touchdowns. In a
home game they should be able to control the tempo of, look for
Mostert to get 10-12 touches. With a penchant for big plays, he
should be able to produce enough to make him fantasy relevant.
First the good news. With LeSean McCoy a healthy scratch, Williams
was the clear bellcow last week against the Titans, touching the
ball 24 times for over 110 yards. The bad news is a 2nd quarter
fumble that was returned for a touchdown was a giant swing in a
game the Chiefs ended up losing. I’m still not sure what was up
with the McCoy benching, and I’ve got Williams in this spot because
I think he remains at least the 1A in this backfield should McCoy
return. Despite the fumble I think he’s a better overall player
than Shady right now, and gives this backfield a big play presence
that must be respected. No matter what happens with the roster shuffling,
Willams should be a good bet as a RB2 with upside.
Listen, I get that Jones has seemed to leapfrog Peyton Barber
for the top spot in the Tampa backfield, and he even doubled his
season reception total with his 8 catches last week, but I think
if you rely too heavily on Jones this week you regret it. Still
the better option in the passing game, Barber figures to have a
more prominent role against an aggressive Saints defense. Jones
has found the endzone in two straight games, but Barber was involved
last week as well. I need to see a repeat performance in the passing
game before I hitch my wagon to Jones, as I’m just not a fan of
chasing points on a player who has chronically underachieved for
the better part of two seasons.
Lions RBs vs DAL
A few seasons ago I had a running gag in this column where I had
repeat offenders in this sit spot. It might be time to rekindle
that with the Lions backfield. Over the last three games Detroit
is 5th worst in the NFL with only 82.3 rushing yards a game. With
Ty Johnson set to miss Week 11 with a concussion, Detroit turns
to the likes of J.D. McKssic and Paul Perkins to carry the load.
That’s a yikes for me dog. With Stafford struggling to stay
healthy, this offense is becoming predictable and defenses simply
don’t have to respect the running game. It’s anyone's
guess exactly how these waiver level guys are going to be utilized,
so just avoid this situation altogether.
For a guy who was “healthy” last week, Johnson sure
did a great impression of someone who wasn’t. Possibly pressured
to get back on the field after Kenyon Drake ran wild against the
49ers, Johnson was barely noticeable with 10 total yards on 6
touches in a painful Week 10 loss to the Bucs. The team keeps
saying he's healthy, and last week’s totals can be attributed
to gameflow, but I don’t buy it. His work in the passing
game has salvaged his fantasy season, as his ground efficiency
(3.7 yards-per-carry) hasn’t been good enough. The addition
of Drake and the looming return of Edmonds could turn this backfield
into a committee nightmare. The matchup and murky role of Johnson
makes this a situation to avoid.
