Last Week’s Question: Do you have a kicker horror story to share?

I received more kicker horror stories than I can possibly squeeze into one column—in part because fantasy owners (much like NFL coaches) appear to hold grudges for years against the kickers who disappoint them when it matters most.

Since my primary motive for posing this question was to explore the extent to which the new PAT rule affected fantasy leagues this year, I’ll be focusing on the anecdotes that come from 2015. But since some of the older stories are simply too painful to be ignored, I want to share one of those first. Here’s a heartbreaking tale from Daniel:

A few years ago, I rolled through my regular season to finish with the best record in my league (12-2) and the high point total by a long margin. My week 15 playoff game was an ugly one, but by the time [the 4 p.m. games started], I trailed by [17.5] with Knowshon Moreno [and Sebastian Janikowski left to go on my team] while the other team was done. Moreno got hurt on the first drive, and his day was finished with 0.6 points scored. I was going to need 17 points from my kicker to win.

At the half, Seabass had two extra points and a long field goal [for a total of] 6 points. But then he hits a 3-point field goal and a 4-point kick in the third quarter. Suddenly, he's scored 13 of the 17 points I need and there's hope!

The Raiders score a long TD early in the fourth and now I just need three more points. One lousy field goal. The Raiders punt on their next possession and after a safety, my Raiders get the ball up by 9 with seven and a half minutes left. They march into field goal range, and with 4 and a half minutes left, it's 4th-and-2 from the Denver 22 yard line. [The field goal would be] an easy kick for Janikowski, and [would put the game out of reach for the Broncos, since it would give the Raiders a 12-point lead.] I stare at my laptop waiting for the update telling me about the field goal. But for some reason I'll never understand, the Raiders went for it. Up 9, they went for it on 4th and 2 instead of taking the easy three points. They scored a touchdown on the drive and my guy added the extra point, but he ended up 2 points short of sending me to the finals. I'll never understand the decision to go for it. I sent an angry letter to Tom Cable, but I never heard back.

I think we can all feel your pain, Daniel. One of the most emotionally draining experiences possible in FF is to cover almost all the ground we need, only to fall short at the end. The anguish of these situations is especially hard to bear when that last little bit of scoring was RIGHT THERE FOR THE TAKING by our player.

As for the stories from this season, the shortest and sweetest comes from Al, who needed a replacement for Steve Hauschka’s bye in Week 9. “I picked up Nick Folk the night before he injured himself in pregame warm-ups. Lost 107-106.” Ouch! I remember that “stealth” Folk injury because I had him in one of my leagues (though I forget which one), and word of his injury reached me too late for me to change my lineup.

Although the yips had nothing to do with Folk’s injury, they could arguably have played a role in almost every other 2015 kicker story I received, such as this one from Dennis:

[When Roethlisberger first got hurt,] I picked up Josh Scobee, figuring Mike Vick would be good enough to move his team downfield, but that PIT would come up short and have to kick field goals. While my assessment was on target, unfortunately Scobee was NOT!

I lost my matchup [that week] by 2 points. Of course I was the one last season to propose a rule change that missed kicks count as -1. Ouch!

Dennis’ regular season loss is painful to consider, but not as painful as a semi-final game in the playoffs coming down to a single missed field goal, as Bill reported:

In our semis last weekend, Team A was up by a point towards the end of the game between New Orleans & Detroit on Monday night. He has Prater, who missed a late FG resulting in a loss of 2 points for Team A. Team B ends up winning by a point, moving on to the championship round.

Bill’s sympathies seem to be with Team A, but Scott tells a similar story from the perspective of Team B:


I faced a must-win game in Week 14 to grab the final playoff spot. Going into Monday night, I was up by 9, and [my opponent] had Josh Brown going.

End of the 3rd, Brown MISSES a 48-yd field goal that would've tied it up. Kicks the XP in the 4th that would've booted me from the playoffs....instead, Brown scores 7 and I'm in the big dance!

I hate when people say that fantasy shouldn't use kickers - they play a huge part of the actual NFL game & games should be won or lost on missed kicks!

Scott makes an excellent point. The story from Bill’s league about a missed field goal costing a team a ticket to the playoffs is EXACTLY like what we’re accustomed to seeing in the NFL. It’s just hard to get excited about an outcome like that unless the kicker in question is playing for your opponent.

One of the clearest examples of the fantasy fallout from the 2015 kicker carousel came from Marty:

My $$ league only allows 5 pickups per year and each one costs $15. We have to roster 2 kickers. I drafted McManus [of Denver] and Hopkins [of New Orleans]. Hopkins was cut the same day I drafted him. Same thing happened to 2 other of my league mates. Da Commish (he's from Chicago) graciously let us redraft replacement kickers at no cost, so I picked up Bullock, who was also promptly cut. [I had to choose between] taking a zero on McManus' bye or paying $15 to rent a kicker for a week. Ugh........

I want to close this section with Todd’s response—not because it was the most nightmarish of all the stories I received, but because it engaged the question relating to Jay Feely’s assessment of the PAT rule change (mentioned last week and in Week 6) most explicitly:

I would definitely agree that this new PAT rule has affected kickers’ ability to get in “the groove.” As a soccer player all my life, I recognize the importance of practicing the short stuff before trying some longer kicks. To come out cold and have to knock in a 30+ yd field goal SHOULD be easy…these guys are professionals. But nonetheless, without some chip shots to build confidence, I could see how there might be a negative effect. I’d be interested to see the research on FG % BEFORE any PATs were attempted vs. AFTER some PATs under the old shorter rule…

How does this affect FF owners? I think this new PAT rule has created more importance for the kicking position in that owners who have found a rock solid kicker have a definite advantage. Yes, it’s still just a kicker, but when your kicker can go 7 for 7 in a game or hit 50 yarders with regularity, then a 33-yard PAT isn’t as big of a deal and there is less likelihood of a -2 from that kicker. It’s worth having a good kicker now…I might just draft my kicker AHEAD of my defense next year! J…nah.

I think Todd’s final remark really puts the kicker question in the proper perspective. Maybe ten years from now, we’ll look back on 2015 and see that the PAT rule change made having a good kicker more important than ever . . . but still not important enough for anyone to give serious consideration to snagging a kicker ahead of their defense.

This Week’s Question: Did “Zero-RB” drafters enjoy a disproportionate amount of success in 2015?

The final question that Q&A will have a chance to address this year comes from a reader named Tom, who suggested (way back in Week 5) that we should try, at the end of the season, to see whether the “zero-RB” draft approach was especially effective in 2015 because so many of the most popular RB choices looked as if they were going to end up as busts. He examined the FFToday Staff League to make his case:

I went WR heavy in my keeper league and in redrafts, and I'm doing well across the board so far.

One relevant point to note--I was looking at the "Steals and Busts" feature on MyFantasyLeague, for your Staff league in particular (although your league didn't draft unusually--it's just the only league I have looked at, not being a MFL user myself).

Not sure how they are rating 'busts'--based just on expected points scored?--but check out your first three rounds from that league.

Round 1: only 3 of 12 picks not labeled as Busts. #1, 3, and 7. Antonio, Charles, and Julio.

Round 2: only 5 of 12 picks not labeled as Busts. 1, 4, 5, 7, and 9. AJ, Gronk, Jordy, Cobb, and Rodgers. (Nice of the system to leave Jordy out of “Bust” consideration, even though it turned out to be an unfortunate pick.)

Round 3: 7 Picks (2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12) were not busts. That's Hilton, Benjamin, Sanders, Gore, Edelman, JMatt, and Hopkins.

Of those first three rounds, the only non-WRs that MFL doesn't consider busts are Charles, Rodgers, and Gore. Maybe we can consider Bell to not be a bust because we knew he'd miss two games, maybe Blount the same. But even without them, that's 18 RB 'Busts' in the first five rounds.

This year, RB value really has come from the mid to bottom rounds. So going WR heavy has so far kept you from not striking out--and isn't that the plan of zero-RB?

A lot is clear to us in Week 16 that wasn’t clear to MFL or Tom in Week 5. Most obviously, injury prevented Jamaal Charles from delivering on the promise he showed in the first month of the season. But perhaps more importantly, it’s clear that if fantasy owners could redraft for 2015 today, nobody would grab Randall Cobb or Aaron Rodgers (both non-RBs) in the second round.

However, the point of Tom’s question remains worthy of our attention even if some of the details of his evidence have shifted since Week 5. I used boldface to emphasize his most important point, which is that an incredibly high number of RBs taken in the early rounds of drafts in 2015 have now finished the season as busts.

If that’s true, then it stands to reason that fantasy owners who used the “zero-RB” approach in 2015 generally would have been better poised for success than those who stuck to the traditional RB-heavy approach. These zero-RB drafters may have benefited by picking up star wide-outs (such as Antonio Brown or Julio Jones), but the best thing about Tom’s argument is that even the zero-RB owners who struck out with their early WR choices (e.g. Dez Bryant and Alshon Jeffery) may have ended up better off at RB because the zero-RB drafters are the ones who rostered the likes of Devonta Freeman and Jonathan Stewart instead of more highly touted (but less effective) RBs such as Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson.

So this week’s question is simple: Did the championship team in your fantasy league use a zero-RB approach in the draft? Provide as much context and background as you like. Responses can be emailed to me or posted as comments below.

Survivor Pool Picks - Week 16 (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

#3: Jacksonville over New Orleans (7-8, Cin, Phi, AZ, ATL, KC, SEA, SD, NE, DEN, GB, NYJ, CAR, Wash, CLE, PIT)

Last week I said to use the Jaguars in a game against a Falcons team that seemed very beatable. I was wrong, but I still see the Jags as a dangerous squad—even on the road as an underdog against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 31st in overall defense and allow almost 30 points and over 413 yards per game. The Saints also have the 3rd most potent offense, which will make this game interesting. In a shootout, which this definitely will be, anything can happen. I’m betting on the Jaguar defense to continue with its opportunism and the New Orleans defense to continue stinking.

#2:Buffalo over Dallas (11-4, GB, Balt, NE, SEA, NYG, MIN, AZ, STL, ATL, PHL, Jax, Cin, CHI, TB, KC)

LeSean McCoy is doing his best to remind everyone that he is one of the top backs in the NFL, no matter what team he is playing for. But no matter how good a running back he is, he can’t fill the holes in the Buffalo defense. That is something that was definitely lacking last week against a Redskins team that passed for four touchdowns against a secondary that played a lot better in the early part of the season. The good news for Bills fans is that the Cowboys come to town with a gimpy Dez Bryant and zero chance of making the playoffs. Since both of these teams have major problems, I’ll bet on the one that still has something left to play for. I would like the Bills even better if Mother Nature did them the favor of blowing in some cold weather, but their slim playoff hopes should give them the motivation they need to knock off a discombobulated Dallas crew.

#1: Oakland over San Diego (8-7 NE, Mia, SEA, AZ, ATL, GB, STL, KC, NO, Cin, CAR, NYG, PIT, BUF, JAX)

There is a new core in Oakland of Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, and rookie wideout Amari Cooper. San Diego also has a lot of talent on its roster, but most of that talent is currently on injured reserve. If not for an emotional win at last week’s home finale, this season might truly have been considered a collective disappointment for the Bolts. But since there are only two road games left for the Chargers, it’s reasonable to expect them to just “play it out.” If the Raiders and Chargers were playing for the right to move to L.A. in 2016, then the Chargers would have something at stake in this one. As things are, however, I’ll take the upstart Raiders at home.