Everybody knows about one kind of raking that happens with daily
fantasy sports (DFS). The industry standard is for the house to
take a 10% cut of each transaction, which means that for every $10
placed in bets, only $9 are paid out as winnings. The 10% rake gets
a lot of press because it means that DFS bettors need to win at
least 55.6% of their head-to-head matchups just to break even.
Let’s round that 55.6% up to 56%, which happens to be the
winning percentage of a 9-7 team in the NFL. Now try explaining
to the NFL team in question, such as the 2014 San Diego Chargers,
that it doesn’t actually have a winning record because of
something called the rake. “So Mr. Rivers,” you might
say to the QB, “I know it seems like 8-8 should be the break-even
point, but since Commissioner Goodell gets a small piece of every
win, 8-8 is actually a losing season. 9-7 is where you really break
even, so you need to go 10-6 to have a winning season. Get it?”
“Son,” Rivers might justifiably respond, “have
you been eating your abacus again?”
A surreal conversation with Philip Rivers is a long way to go just
to explore the kind of raking that I’m NOT talking about.
In fact, I’m talking about a different kind of raking entirely—the
raking of one fantasy population by another.
My first question to readers in 2015 is simple: Are
DFS endeavors peeling part of the fantasy population away from traditional
fantasy sports?
The question is easy to ask—but difficult to take seriously.
In the first place, the question seems to embrace the assumption
that FFers can only participate in traditional season-long fantasy
sports OR in the fast-paced DFS world. That can’t be true,
since there are plenty of people who participate in both.
In the second place, the question seems to disregard the possibility
that the extraordinary success of the DFS model may in fact be spotlighting
the fantasy world as a whole and attracting new enthusiasts to traditional
FF leagues.
And in the third place, the question sounds like it’s based
on the raving lunacy of a grumpy old man who doesn’t like
the world to change and wants fantasy football to remain eternally
fixed in exactly the state in which it first came to his attention.
These are all sound objections, and you may already have thought
of other and better objections of your own.
Nevertheless, this question has been rattling around the back of
my mind ever since a reader complained to me last summer that he
was going to let his traditional league die because he didn’t
want to deal with the thankless task of running a league that wasn’t
as much fun for him as his DFS habit.
Sometimes leagues need to be allowed to die, so I initially interpreted
the draw to spend his time on DFS as a justification for handling
a problem that was presumably more complicated than he made it sound.
This summer, however, I received a record number of invitations
to join long-standing leagues that needed to replace an owner or
two in 2015. When you write a column about fantasy football, you
get accustomed to receiving more invitations than you can possibly
accept, but this year was off the charts. Why the sudden spike?
Is it just a coincidence, or is there a growing tendency among fantasy
enthusiasts to focus on the here and now of DFS contests rather
than the season-long commitment of traditional fantasy sports? In
a twelve-person league, is there, on average, one owner who is ready
to bolt for the greener pastures of DFS as that iteration of fantasy
sports becomes more mainstream?
Or maybe you don’t want to tell me. Maybe you’re just
here to check out Mr. Matthew Schiff’s legendary Survival
Pool picks. I’m delighted to report that Schiff has agreed
to lend his expertise to this column for yet another season in 2015.
His trap game analysis remains the best in the business, and his
son Ty’s artwork is pretty eye-catching as well. Enjoy.
Survivor Pool Picks - Week 1 (Courtesy
of Matthew Schiff)
Trap Game: Dallas over NY Giants
Welcome back Survival Pool contestants. As kickoff approaches, you've
seen a few pre-season games, read all the hype about the new rookies,
heard enough about "DeflateGate," and had your fill of stories about
players who blew off their own fingers during the offseason. It's
time to get busy, which means not screwing up your very first Survival
Pool pick of 2015. On paper, the mighty Cowboys seem tempting vs.
the lowly Giants, but things will look very different on the field.
The Cowboys are short three defensive starters that they anticipated
having this season-one due to injury (Orlando Scandrick) and the
other two due to suspensions (Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain). The
holes in the defensive roster make the Cowboys especially vulnerable
to a Giants team that will stretch the field. There may be cause
for concern on the other side of the ball for Dallas as well, since
all that we know for sure about the Dallas running game in 2015
is that DeMarco Murray will not be in the mix (although apparently
everyone else in the universe is). Normally any team that is a touchdown
favorite should be a lock, but not this week. Avoid this game as
it has the makings of an upset written all over it.
#3: Cincinnati at Oakland (15-2 Last Season)
With so many games tight spreads, it's a good idea to check for
games where you just know that one team traditionally has been better
than the other. This week, the Bengals travel to Oakland and will
get a chance to see the improved offense of the Raiders. Derek Carr,
Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray are now the young "core" of the
black and silver. Unfortunately, these fresh faces won't keep pace
with the one-two punch of Cincy's Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard
on the ground or the proven receiving threats of AJ Green and Tyler
Eifert. Both defenses are similar in style, but it will be the experience
of Andy Dalton that makes the difference in this game. Look for
a win by the Bengals, but think about using one of the two choices
below if you really want to advance to next week.
#2: Green Bay over Chicago (11-6 Last Season)
The Monsters of the Midway haven't lived up to their nickname in
years, and it's hard to know whether they're moving back in the
right direction or not. Brandon Marshall is gone, and Alshon Jeffery
is injured. Consequently, Matt Forte will be called upon to be better
than usual even though his usual is only as good as it is because
the passing game usually relieves pressure from the line of scrimmage.
Good luck Matt! Jay Cutler's best years were when Marshall was on
the receiving end of his passes, and his options are limited this
week. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers may
miss Jordy Nelson, but he will have a friendly face to throw to
other than Randall Cobb in James Jones. On top of that, Eddie Lacy
and James Starks will pound the ball into a weak Bears defense that
is trying to retool after finishing 30th overall last year. This
one should be over by halftime.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty
Schiff)
#1: New England over Pittsburgh (14-3: Last Season)
Where will Commissioner Goodell be for the opening game? Probably
not in Mr. Kraft's suite! And where will Tom
Brady be? Under center, of course! If there ever was an opening
week when you should pick the Patriots, this is it. Although Bill
Belichick is notorious for losing in Week One, that won't happen
in 2015. Why not? Because the Pats are fired up to stick it to
whoever is on their schedule this year. They are tired of being
picked on and criticized for every little thing that they do,
and the Steelers just happen to be in their way this week. On
top of that, Pittsburgh will be without Le'Veon Bell (suspension)
and their Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey (injury) which will
make it hard for the Steelers to mount a balanced attack.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
