Last Week’s Question: Was 2015
suitable for the zero-RB draft strategy?
In Week 3, I reported
that the zero-RB strategy appeared to be working well in my primary
league, since my own team (with four WRs taken in the first four
rounds) was lighting up the scoreboard. That trend only intensified
in Week 3 (especially since drafting RBs late was how I ended up
with Devonta
Freeman). With 782 points so far this season, my squad is almost
150 points ahead of the second-place team (featuring Gronk, with
a total of 636 points) and well out of reach of the other ten teams
in the league (whose totals are in the 400s and 500s).
But you don’t care about my team. All you want to know is
whether my experience is typical or exceptional.
Based on the feedback I received to my question, it seems safe to
say that the zero-RB approach has been generally successful for
FFers so far in 2015—perhaps because, as Doug Orth pointed
out in his “All
Out Blitz” last week, rushing productivity was below average
across the NFL through the first two weeks of the season.
Although I received dozens of emails (in addition to numerous comments
posted directly to the original column), I only heard from one person
who was disappointed by the zero-RB approach. That unlucky reader
(Lynn) explained: “I took Dez, T.Y., Alshon, and Romo in the
5th. Things are not going so well.” I feel your pain, Lynn—but
I think God may be punishing your team with injuries to illustrate
that Romo isn’t fifth-round material, even when healthy.
In fairness, another reader named Taylor commented that he’s
glad he didn’t use the zero-RB strategy because if he had,
he would have ended up with a team similar to Lynn’s. However,
apart from the responses of one person whose zero-RB draft failed
and another whose hypothetical zero-RB draft would have
failed, the feedback on this strategy was overwhelmingly positive.
John plays in a 12-team redrafter league, and his story was representative
of what most readers had to say:
I went with a version of the zero-Running Back
strategy this year. . . . So far, I like the results I’m getting.
I had the sixth pick. The top five RB’s I had on the board were
gone. Lynch was the next one on my sheet, but I don’t trust him.
I took a deep breath and pulled the trigger on Antonio
Brown. I heard a couple of expletives at the end of the table.
Maybe I wasn’t the only one who read the article. This league has
always been RB-heavy . . . and this draft was no different. The
RBs were flying off the board. So [in the second round], OBJ was
sitting there staring me down. I took him. Melvin
Gordon was there [in round] three, and I got nervous being the
only one without a RB and [took him since] he was the best available.
After him, there was nothing but fourth-tier guys. I then drafted
DeAndre
Hopkins with the fourth [and] Matt
Ryan with the fifth. . . . I like my chances with this team.
Although John took Gordon in the third round, other readers who
were satisfied with their zero-RB approach waited even longer to
build a rushing attack. Here’s Alex’s story:
I had the 5th pick in my draft and did not pull
the trigger on an RB until the 6th round and am on fire with a 2-0
record and most points scored overall thus far. Since my league
starts 3 WRs and a flex, [my] strategy was to land Gronk in the
second round as the nucleus and surround him with top notch WRs,
a solid QB1 and as many flex-type RBs [as possible with] the potential
to score 15 points against the right matchup. This is the team I
came away with in my draft:
1) Julio Jones (he was my man crush)
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Alshon Jeffery
4) DeAndre Hopkins
5) Brandon Marshall
6) Chris Ivory
7) Isaiah Crowell
8) Danny Woodhead
9) Philip Rivers
10) Matthew Stafford
11) Darren Sproles
Note that even though the pick of Jeffery in the third round hasn’t
worked out, Alex’s team has depth and flexibility.
I don’t have room to include everyone’s story in such detail, but
highlights from other readers include remarks from Todd (“My WR
crew is pretty much untouchable”), Ben (“After two weeks I am 2-0
and have the highest point total, 137 points ahead of the 2nd place
team”), A.R. (“So far I am dominating my league”) and even the winless
B.G., who could complain because of his record but still advocates
the strategy he used (“I am 0-2, but that’s only because I played
the top scorer both weeks; I [had the second-highest score overall]
both weeks.”)
Max explained why he thinks the zero-RB strategy has worked out
so well for him:
My take on it was that there's too many committees
right now and if I can lock down top WRs, [then I can] wait to see
what comes out of these committees. . . . I don't see myself losing
any of my next 3-4 matchups because of my competitors’ RB situations
(hurt or not producing as much as my WRs).
Although the zero-RB tag has gotten a lot of attention recently,
the idea has been around much longer, as attested by Eric:
I won’t say I adopted this strategy because
of an article I read, since I’ve used this in the past. But I agree
with this theory because I believe that the “true #1 stud rb” is
extinct. My opinion is that the so called middle-of-the-road backs
are not as far off the elite backs as it seems due to the increased
role in the passing game in the NFL.
Since the zero-rb draft is routinely defined as not taking any RBs
in the first three (sometimes just the first two) rounds in redrafter
leagues, some readers may wonder whether it’s even possible to apply
the zero-rb strategy to an auction draft. Thanks to Ryan, those
readers need not wonder any longer:
I was burned on RB last year having drafted
Montee
Ball, Zac
Stacy, and Toby
Gerhart—and have continued to notice declining consistency and
relative value at the position.
So this year, with our usual auction draft ($200 budget), I spent
over half of my funds on WR, with Antonio
Brown, DeAndre
Hopkins, and Julian
Edelman. I was happy with my draft, having still been able to
get Murray, Blount, Crowell, and Coleman as my RB's, Romo at QB,
and Witten at TE. Clearly [Week 2] was not kind to me with injuries
and playing time, but I just traded Edelman for Ingram, which should
help my RB quality, and hopefully Hopkins remains able to play.
It’s still very early, but my team should be competitive especially
if I stream the QB spot well.
My thanks to everyone who
wrote in—whether I was able to quote you or not. It was nice to
see a clear consensus. I look forward to learning whether the
weight of opinion concerning the follow-up question is equally
one-sided.
This Week’s Question: Does anyone
who went RB/RB in rounds 1 & 2 want to gloat about their team?
A reader whose draft was “nearly identical” to my own (except
that he snagged Demaryius
Thomas where I got Julio Jones) wrote in to report that his
zero-RB team is 2-0. But he also wanted to let me know that only
one owner in his league went the traditional route of drafting
RBs in the first two rounds.
J.T.’s comment transitions nicely into a point made by Chad, who
mentioned that he was only writing about his success with the
zero-RB draft because “It’s fun to brag.” He also raised an objection:
Your sample is going to be pretty lopsided
[because you will] hear from everybody like me who is 2-0 so far
with the zero-RB approach. People with busted seasons thanks to
zero-RB are going to stay quiet.
Maybe so, Chad. I agree that people enjoy bragging, but I think
they may enjoy complaining even more—so I would have expected
to hear a lot of cursing and gnashing of teeth from those who
believe that the zero-RB approach failed them.
However, in an effort to keep things balanced just in case you’re
right, I’ll invite anyone who went RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2 to
send me a boastful note
about their draft. I hope especially to hear from those who went
RB/RB and currently top their league in scoring. If you fit that
bill, please also let me know whether the team in second place
in your league went RB/RB, zero-RB, or something in between.
Survivor Pool Picks - Week 4 (Courtesy
of Matthew Schiff)
Trap Game: Denver over Minnesota
The Broncos host Adrian Peterson and company this week in a game
that most oddsmakers believe they should win by at least a touchdown.
However, Teddy Bridgewater is starting to find that he has a more
time in the pocket this season with AP behind him, and last week,
when the game was on the line, the coaching staff kept feeding
their star running back the ball. He’s hard to stop even
when you know he’ll be the one carrying the rock.
While the Bronco defense is ranked number one overall and has
created as many turnovers as the Arizona Cardinals, don’t
expect the Vikings to cough up the ball like Denver’s prior
opponents. On top of that, the Broncos haven’t played great
games against quality opponents, and their defense definitely
can be beaten by quality players. For that reason, you may want
to avoid this game and find an alternative to what many expect
to be a lopsided loss for Minnesota.
#3: Atlanta over Houston (2-1, Cin, Phi,
ARI)
Who would’ve thought that the Falcons would win three straight
against NFC East opponents, even coming from 14 points down in
the second half to win? Not me! Devonta Freeman took advantage
of his starting opportunity by racking up 100+ yards and three
touchdowns last week against a Dallas defense that had played
fairly well up until the second half of last week’s game.
The Texans seem to have similar problems to the Cowboys in their
secondary, and assuming that Matt Ryan can stretch the field with
Julio Jones and company (it really doesn’t matter who as
long as Julio is out there), Freeman may end up looking like the
second coming of O.J. Simpson (without, you know, all the murdery
associations and stuff). The only bright spot for Texans fans
is that Arian Foster is expected to suit up in the backfield for
the first time this season, but if he doesn’t, maybe Alfred
Blue can reprise his role as an actual NFL running back and take
some pressure off an offensive line that has given neither of
the Houston quarterbacks any time to pass the ball. This should
be a much easier game for the 3-0 Falcons, whose fiery head coach
(Dan Quinn) should help them resist any temptation to mail it
in vs. a lesser opponent. Take the Falcons as your safe bet if
you’ve already used one of the games below.
#2: Seattle over Detroit (2-1 GB, Bal,
NE)
Last week I recommended these same Seahawks at home against another
NFC opponent, the Chicago Bears, when Seattle needed to win to
stay relevant in the NFC West. Since the Cardinals seem to have
a stranglehold on the division—and perhaps an NFC conference
that is ripe for the taking—a win this week against the
old “lie downs” seems likely. Some people have gone
so far as to say that the Lions can’t move the ball inches
forward with their current offense, and there are even questions
of whether Matthew Stafford will remain quarterback due to the
lack of downfield passing that is occurring this year in Detroit.
Unfortunately for this team, it doesn’t seem to be just
one player that is coming up short, and unless you are playing
your best when you arrive in the Pacific Northwest, you shouldn’t
expect to win against last year’s NFC champions. Take the
home team and rest easy, assuming you didn’t use them already.
Image by Tilt Creative (Ty Schiff)
#1: Arizona over St. Louis (2-1 NE, Mia,
SEA):
The Arizona Cardinals are the leaders of the NFC West after three
weeks, having embarrassed the 49ers at home on Sunday 47-7 (with
the help of four interceptions, two by Tyrann Mathieu). While
Mathieu is hardly the second coming of Ronnie Lott, the Arizona
defense has produced 10 turnovers, three of which they returned
for scores. This week, Nick Foles and the much-improved Rams visit
the desert to learn what all of Arizona’s previous opponents
have: that the Cards believe a conference championship is in the
cards for them. Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and even Chris
Johnson are enjoying a rejuvenation in Bruce Arians’ offensive
scheme. Combined with the opportunistic defense this season, it
is highly unlikely that many NFC teams will be able to compete
with the Cardinals as long as their stars remain healthy.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
