How accurate are your projections? Do you have any idea? Do you
update your projections weekly throughout the season? Or do you
just arrange your spreadsheet once--before your draft(s)--and then
play it by ear? Perhaps you rely entirely on the projections of
experts at sites like FFToday.com. If so, when two of your favorite
experts disagree about a player’s outlook, do you find yourself
siding with the more correct or the less correct opinion? If you
don’t keep track, how would you know?
Do you have a better handle on QBs, RBs, or WRs? How confident are
you about that self-assessment? Do you have any data to support
it?
If you’re disciplined about measuring the accuracy of your
own projections (or the ones you use, if they come from an external
source), then good for you. You’re in a small minority. Most
fantasy owners judge their own accuracy in terms of how well they
did in a particular season. After all, you must have been more accurate
in the year you won your championship than in the years you didn’t
make the playoffs, right?
Wrong. Maybe you were even less accurate than usual in the year
you won the championship, but all your competitors were plagued
with exceptional inaccuracy that season. The only way to know how
accurate you are is to measure.
But measuring can take too much time & trouble. Over the years,
I’ve heard from plenty of readers who have tried to track
their own accuracy, but found it too cumbersome/time-consuming to
maintain over the course of a season. People are curious, but they’re
also busy and/or lazy--and curiosity routinely takes a backseat
to business & laziness.
That’s why I introduced my “quick
quarterly quiz” in 2019. The quiz is a simple, 10-question
diagnostic tool that requires no research and should take no more
than a few minutes to complete. Last year, the quizzes began in
Week 5 (after the first quarter of the season was in the books),
but this year, I’ll be sharing my own answers--and collecting
yours, if you care to participate--at quarterly intervals from beginning
to end.
Instead of perplexing you with open-ended questions in a vacuum,
each question gives you 5 options & asks you to choose the one
that you like most or least. Correct answers in the early part of
the season are worth more than correct answers near the end, and
scores are calculated on a simple 100-point scale. (Correct answers
for this quiz--before the season begins--are worth 4 points each,
whereas correct answers in Week 13, after 75% of the data is in,
are only worth 1 point each. But since there’s no way to know
which answers are correct until the end of the season, there’s
no reason to bog down in scoring just yet.)
Each question can be answered with a single name, which you can
write down on a scratchpad or post in the comments below. However,
it may be helpful to add a brief explanation of your reasoning to
remind yourself of what you were thinking so that you can see which
of your thought processes bore the best fruit.
The only wrinkle is that the same answer cannot be used more than
once per question as we progress through the season.
For ease of reference, I’ll be using the PPR scoring system
of the FFToday
Staff League (FFTSL) on MyFantasyLeague.com. We haven’t
had our 2020 draft yet, so that link will take you to the page for
the 2019 league. Once the season gets underway, questions will be
based on the standings of players according to that scoring system.
For this preseason questionnaire, we’ll be using FFToday projections.
This quiz does not require a calculator or a #2 pencil. It should
take less than 5 minutes to complete. Ready? Go.
Preseason Quarterly Quiz
According to FFToday’s preseason PPR rankings, the top 5 QBs
are:
Question 1) Which of these QBs do you consider most likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16? [Note: You can
answer any question with ‘none,’ but that would be a
very bold choice in this case.]
My answer: Mahomes. Whatever else Clyde Edwards-Helaire does, he
will be catching passes from Mahomes; so will Tyreek Hill and Travis
Kelce.
Question 2) Which of these QBs do you consider least likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Murray. He was impressive in 2019 & could be electrifying
in 2020, but he remains a high injury risk in my opinion because
of his size.
According to FFToday’s preseason PPR rankings, the top 5 RBs
are:
Question 3) Which of these RBs do you consider most likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Elliott. I know McCaffrey must seem the safe choice to
some readers, but after 2 years of carrying the Panther offense,
he could conceivably wear down. Zeke will be a star for the Dallas
offense without having to carry the entire load.
Question 4) Which of these RBs do you consider least likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Henry. I’m frankly astonished to see Henry ranked
this high in PPR settings, but he’s such a juggernaut that
he could finish as a top 3 back even with receptions in the teens.
That seems unlikely to me, however.
According to FFToday’s preseason PPR rankings, the top 5 WRs
are:
Question 5) Which of these WRs do you consider most likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Jones. Even with Calvin Ridley emerging, Jones’
consistency makes him irresistible to me. I expect him to outperform
Thomas in 2020.
Question 6) Which of these WRs do you consider least likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Hill. I know a lot of folks expect a drop off from
Hopkins in his new environment, but I expect him to thrive in
Arizona. I’ll reluctantly take Hill from this bunch because
his production is so volatile that a couple of missed games (or
uncharacteristically bad games) could skew his stats for the whole
season.
According to FFToday’s preseason PPR rankings, the top 5
TEs are:
My answer: Kelce. Consistency speaks for itself. I expect him
to bounce back in the TD department in 2020, but he’ll be
a yardage monster (again) even without that positive regression.
Question 8) Which of these TEs do you consider least likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Waller. There are so many changes afoot in Las Vegas--&
so many tight ends on the roster--that Waller might just find
the Ruggs pulled out from under him.
According to FFToday’s preseason PPR rankings, the top 5
defenses are:
1) Rams
2) Steelers
3) Chiefs
4) Patriots
5) 49ers
Question 9) Which of these defenses do you consider most likely
to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Steelers. I kept underestimating them last season because
I thought that without Roethlisberger at QB, they would be overworked--but
they just kept getting better instead of more exhausted. I’m
a believer now.
Question 10) Which of these defenses do you consider least
likely to remain in the top 5 through Week 16?
My answer: Patriots. I have scant faith in Cam Newton’s
ability to remain in playing condition for long on his vegan diet--and
even less faith in Stidham. I’m gonna try this overworked
defense theory a second time on the hunch that Pittsburgh was
a fluke. Perhaps I’ll get the Pats wrong in 2020 exactly
the same way I got the Steelers wrong in 2019.
I know some people prefer emailing
me their responses to posting them, which is totally fine.
However, those who post their answers in Disqus below will have
the information available for later review whether I have the
space to include emailed answers in future columns or not.
Happy drafting.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
