A year ago, I didn’t even bother to feature Smith in this space,
instead writing about Drew Lock under the pretense that Smith
winning the job amounted to 17 games of game management that would
be of zero interest to fantasy owners. Things change. After passing
for less than 200 yards in Weeks 1 and 2, Smith threw for 325
yards in Week 3, and over the remaining 14 games he’d throw for
under 200 yards just twice more. His final stat line: 4,282 yards
passing, 366 yards rushing, 30 TDs, and 11 INTs.
That performance netted Smith a new three-year, $75 million contract,
which is quite the jump after he spent the previous eight seasons
as a backup. At 32, Smith should still have some good years left,
and Seattle has done a nice job of surrounding him with talent
at the skill positions, including potentially one of the best
top-three receiver groups in the NFL. There’s a lot to like
about his 2023 outlook.
Despite that, there are reasons for concern. Smith’s production
faded down the stretch last year, as over the final four games
he passed for just 849 yards (212 per game), 4 TDs, and 3 INTs
-- those numbers are much more in line with what most projected
from the journeyman heading into 2022. Seattle also has a run-based
DNA, and as we saw during the brief “Let Russ Cook”
phase, if the numbers aren’t leading to wins, Pete Carroll
isn’t afraid to go conservative. Consider Smith a capable
QB2.
Last season was supposed to be a mix of Rashaad Penny and Walker,
but to the surprise of no one, Penny suffered a season-ending
injury after carrying the ball just 57 times. That thrust the
then-rookie into the primary role, and he was utilized like a
true bell cow with his 228 carries dwarfing those of backups DeeJay
Dallas (35) and Travis Homer (19). He got dinged up late, missing
Week 14, but he logged 78 rushing attempts over the final three
games as he showed his toughness.
One area where Walker failed to impress was as a receiver, catching
just 27 passes for the year and managing more than 20 receiving
yards in a game only twice. Part of it could be pinned on Seattle’s
confidence in Homer in pass protection, so with the veteran gone
it’s possible Walker’s involvement in that part of the game plan
will increase. Then again, the Seahawks invested a second-round
pick on Zach Charbonnet, and unless he breaks down like Penny
did, he should have a meaningful role.
After posting 1,215 yards and 9 TDs as a rookie, Walker looks
poised for more. While Charbonnet gives the Seahawks a more competent
backup, the Michigan State product is the lead back, and his usage
should go up merely based on being in that spot from Week 1 on.
Walker will also benefit from a lot of light boxes as teams try
to check Seattle’s passing attack. He’s a solid RB2.
Outside of Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, the 2023 draft class
at running back wasn’t considered particularly strong, though
Charbonnet was certainly in the conversation for best of the rest.
Whether there was value with the rookie in Round 2 is debatable,
but the Seahawks took Walker 11 picks earlier in 2022, so they
feel it’s a place to target a running back. While it’s
dangerous to look at collegiate production as a measure for pro
success, Charbonnet finished third in the country with 152.7 yards
from scrimmage per game last year, making plays as both a runner
and receiver.
At 6-foot, 214 pounds, the UCLA product has a good mix of speed,
balance, and power, allowing him to break arm tackles and run
away from defenders. He’s capable as a pass catcher, and
if his blocking is up to snuff, he could see passing-down duty
early on. Barring an abysmal camp, Charbonnet should enter 2023
as the No. 2 back in Seattle, and fantasy owners can target him
as an RB4.
When Russell Wilson was traded to Denver, Metcalf felt far more
likely to retain his value based on the 235-pounder’s physical
style of play, allowing him to take short passes and power through
defensive backs. For the most part, that bore fruit. Metcalf set
career highs in targets (141) and receptions (90) while topping
1,000 yards for the second time in four NFL campaigns. The only
blemish was watching his touchdown total get cut in half, from
12 in 2021 to six, which was a personal low.
One negative trend that began in Wilson’s final year also continued,
as Metcalf’s yards per catch fell from 12.9 to 11.6 after dropping
down from 15.7 in 2020. He simply hasn’t been as involved in the
downfield passing game and is becoming more of a chain mover.
Perhaps that will change now that Seattle added Jaxon Smith-Njigba,
who dramatically upgrades the depth of the receiver room -- to
that point, Marquise Goodwin finished third among the team’s wideouts
with just 27 catches.
While there are some unknowns with Metcalf, he has fewer than
his running mates. At 25, he’s in his prime, and his physical
style is nearly impossible to fully neutralize. As Seattle’s
No. 1 receiver, Metcalf is either a low-end WR1 or a very strong
WR2 with top-10 upside.
Long a favorite of Wilson on deep shots, Lockett seemed like
a prime candidate for serious statistical regression in 2022.
Instead, the veteran made it four straight seasons with 100-plus
targets (117), 70-plus receptions (84), 1,000-plus yards (1,033),
and 8 or more TDs (9). His big plays did dip, from 22 catches
of 20 or more yards in 2021 to 14 last year, but he was arguably
more consistent week to week compared to other recent seasons,
most notably 2020 when he had 390 yards and 8 TDs in three games
and just 664 yards and 2 TDs over the other 13.
Durability has long been one of Lockett’s attributes, and
he once again showed the ability to play through pain last year,
missing just one game after undergoing surgery on his finger.
Through eight seasons, the veteran has been inactive just three
times. While not a huge target, Lockett has always found ways
to make himself available for the catch, which bodes well for
him as he enters his age-31 season. There’s not a lot of
upside here, but Lockett should offer reliable WR3 value.
Viewed by many as the best of a middling group of receivers in
this year’s draft, Smith-Njigba lands in Seattle and has
been penciled in to play the slot. While in NFL terms, JSN couldn’t
ask for much more than to learn from two established pros like
Metcalf and Lockett that still demand significant attention from
defenses, in fantasy circles it’s a bit of a Catch-22. Doubtless
the rookie will see a lot of single coverage where his precise
route running will serve him well, but when it comes to targets,
he may lag behind the established duo -- as noted, the No. 3 receiver
a year ago caught 27 passes.
Smith-Njigba missed nearly all last season with a hamstring injury,
but he’s only a year removed from leading Ohio State in
receiving on a team that included Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave,
both of whom were first-round picks a year ago. It’s easy
to see a scenario where JSN goes earlier than he should in fantasy
drafts based on name value and the usual love of rookie receivers,
but if you’re counting on him delivering more than WR4 production
you’re likely overpaying. As a high-upside reserve, Smith-Njigba
makes sense. As more, he’s a risk.
A borderline fantasy starter his last two seasons in Denver,
Fant was a bit of a disappointment with the Seahawks last year,
finishing with 50 receptions, 486 yards, and 4 TDs. While the
touchdowns were on brand, it was 18 fewer catches than the previous
year alongside a career low in receiving yardage. What’s
arguably more distressing for his outlook is that he finished
third on the club in all three categories; it’s simply that
the Seattle passing game is all about the receivers, and the addition
of Smith-Njigba pushes Fant further down the pecking order. He’s
not worth drafting.
