If you only take talent into account, Herbert (foot) rates among
the best in the NFL at his position, with a strong arm, underrated
athleticism, and the moxie to make pretty much every throw. The
box score tells a different story. After an excellent second season
(5,014 yards, 38 TDs), the Oregon alum watched his numbers drop
to 4,739 yards/25 TDs in Year 3, and then 3,134 yards/20 TDs this
past season. Granted, he missed the final four weeks with a finger
injury, but even adjusting for a full 17-game slate leads to a
modest projection of 4,098 yards and 26 TDs.
A revolving door at offensive coordinator hasn’t helped with
Herbert playing for three OCs (Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi, and
Kellen Moore) in his four years. That’s the case once again in
2024 as new head coach Jim Harbaugh hired Greg Roman as OC, who
wants to control the line of scrimmage and run the football. On
the player front, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone -- the
Bolts will try to replace them with a mix of Josh Palmer, veteran
D.J. Chark,
last year’s first-rounder Quentin Johnson, and rookie Ladd McConkey.
With changes to the coaching staff and offensive approach, along
with personnel losses, it looks like a lot to overcome. Adding
to the challenges, Herbert suffered a plantar fascia injury in
his right foot and will miss most of training camp. The team remains
confident that he’ll be ready for Week 1, but it’s
a less-than-ideal scenario as LA integrates a lot of new pieces.
Still, Herbert is a top talent, and while he’s best viewed
as an upper-end QB2, he offers tangible upside.
After six seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, all but two of which
coming with Roman as OC, Edwards inked a two-year deal with the
Chargers during the offseason. The veteran was the very definition
of consistency during his time with the Ravens, finishing each
of his four full seasons -- he missed all of 2021 and played in
just nine games the following year -- with 710-810 yards rushing.
Pushed into an expanded role a year ago, Edwards wasn’t
as effective, turning a career-high 198 carries into just 4.1
yards per rush -- it was easily a career low as he’d never
averaged less than 5.0 YPC previously. The 238-pound back showed
a newfound effectiveness near the goal line, however, racking
up 13 touchdowns to match what he did in his four other seasons
combined.
A nonfactor as a receiver with limited big-play ability, Edwards
is still a steady hand and by far the safest choice from LA’s
backfield over the oft-injured J.K. Dobbins. You can tab the 29-year-old
as a decent No. 3 fantasy back and feel good about it.
There was a time that Dobbins looked like a future star, averaging
6.0 yards per carry as a rookie. That time may have passed. The
former Buckeye has been absolutely ravaged by injuries, logging
only nine games during the past three seasons combined. Last year,
it was a torn Achilles’ tendon in Week 1 that brought his
campaign to an abrupt close after just eight carries. Prior to
that, a torn ACL cost him all of 2021 and then required a clean-up
procedure, dogging him throughout 2022.
When he entered the league, Dobbins looked like a top-tier back,
displaying a dangerous blend of speed and power. He claims to
be fully recovered from his most recent setback, though following
two major injuries it remains to be seen how much burst remains.
Dobbins has the higher ceiling -- his 5.8 yards-per-carry average
is league’s best among players with 200 or more carries since
he entered the NFL -- but the downside is considerable. As your
RB4, maybe he’s worth the risk.
With Allen gone, Palmer is the top returning receiver, having
tallied 38 receptions (on 61 targets) for 581 yards and a pair
of touchdowns -- his 15.3 yards per catch led the team. That was
actually a significant step down from 2022, when he posted a 72-769-3
line, though him missing six games due to injury doubtless was
a factor. The fourth-year pro has flashed during his time with
the Bolts, and he has a huge opportunity to shine in an expanded
role.
In addition to his experience edge playing with Herbert, Palmer
should also be highly motivated to prove he can be a full-time
force at receiver as he’ll be a free agent after the season.
Palmer has been running with the starters during camp and feels
like the safest option to contribute decent numbers at the position
in 2024. While you shouldn’t draft Palmer as more than a
WR5, he has more potential that you might think.
There was some thought that the Chargers would use the No. 5
overall pick on a receiver. Instead, they drafted OT Joe Alt and
waited until Round 2 to address the position, selecting McConkey
34th overall. While he isn’t a big target at 6-foot, 186
pounds, McConkey is a physical player that has the toughness to
work in traffic and the speed to take the top off defenses. He’s
considered an advanced route runner as well, and the Bolts believe
he can step right in as a rookie and contribute.
Injuries are something of a concern for McConkey, who dealt with
back and ankle injuries during his time at Georgia, but the opportunity
is there. Thus far in training camp, the first-team receivers
have been Palmer, D.J. Chark, and McConkey. It doesn’t seem
like too big of a stretch to envision the rookie taking over that
Keenan Allen role of moving the chains and being a volume target.
You can’t expect Allen levels of production, of course,
but McConkey might have the highest ceiling of any Chargers wideout
this year. If you can nab him as your fifth receiver, you might
have a WR3 on your hands.
A first-round pick last year, Johnston endured a largely forgettable
first season. Despite injuries to Allen, who missed four games,
and Williams, who missed 14, the then-rookie finished with 38
receptions, 431 yards, and 2 touchdowns -- he topped 50 yards
in a game just twice. Things haven’t gotten much better
in the lead up to Year 2. The TCU product has dealt with drops
during training camp, and he is currently working with the second-team
offense while journeyman D.J. Chark joins Palmer and McConkey
with the starting unit. That’s not a great sign with a new
coaching staff and GM in place.
Although it’s far too early to write off a receiver with
Johnston’s talent, not to mention his 6-foot-4, 215-pound
frame, he’s not trending in the right direction. A couple
of months ago, maybe you could’ve talked yourself into rolling
the dice with a late-round selection. At this stage, however,
Johnston should go undrafted in most formats.
With Gerald Everett gone, the Chargers will turn the tight end
position over to some combination of Will Dissly (17-172-1 w/
Seattle) and Hurst (18-184-1 w/ Carolina). While the snap distribution
between the two remains to be seen, Hurst projects as the main
pass catcher. A former first-round pick, Hurst topped 50 receptions
in two of the previous three years before disappearing in an injury-filled
campaign with the lowly Panthers. There’s probably some
narrow pathway to value for Hurst given Herbert’s lack of
established options, but his absolute ceiling right now is as
a resident of your watch list.
