A full-blown journeyman for most of his first nine seasons in
the NFL, Smith parlayed a surprisingly successful 2022 into a
three-year, $75 million deal. He wasn’t nearly as sharp
last year. Even taking into account a groin injury that cost him
two games, the veteran’s numbers were down: his passing
yards slipped from 4,282 yards to 3,624, and his TD tosses fell
from 30 to 20. Just based on his performance, Smith’s hold
on the job had become more tenuous, but the dismissal of head
coach Pete Carroll, who was his staunchest supporter, further
erodes his security.
GM John Schneider clearly isn’t sold, having acquired Sam
Howell, who was Washington’s primary quarterback last year.
While Smith has the leg up in the new offensive scheme that asks
the QB to do a lot of checking at the line, he’s also 10
years older than Howell. Under Carroll, who is in his 70s and
was always looking to win now, that was a plus. With a new staff
that has some leeway, particularly in a division where Seattle
is clearly a notch or two below San Francisco and probably the
Rams as well, that could lead to them pulling the plug on Smith
and taking a longer look at Howell.
That’s an awful lot of variables for a quarterback that’s
had a grand total of one big statistical year since entering the
league in 2013. The only thing keeping him on the fringe of relevancy
is the talent level of Seattle’s receiver corps. As a low-end
QB2, maybe he’s worth taking, but not much more than that.
Looking to build on an encouraging rookie season, Walker instead
did little more than tread water as a sophomore: as a runner,
he posted a 228-1050-9 line in Year 1 versus a 219-905-8 effort
last year, and as a receiver it went from 27-165-0 to 29-259-1.
Total it up, and he collected 255 touches, 1,215 yards, and nine
touchdowns in 2022, compared to 248 touches for 1,164 yards and
nine scores last season. He once again missed two games due to
injury as well, though it was an oblique issue this time around.
Although he’s not a bruiser, the Michigan State alum has
decent power to go with a mix of shiftiness and burst in the open
field. He’s also solid in pass protection with reliable
hands, meaning he’s capable of contributing on all three
downs. That could be key as new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb
has said the backs will be more involved in the passing game than
they were under Carroll.
While Walker remains the lead back, there is some mild cause
for concern after he missed time each of his first two seasons
and has talent behind him that could warrant more snaps. Nonetheless,
Walker retains appeal as a low-end RB2 or strong RB3.
A second-round pick in 2023, Charbonnet plays a more physical
brand of football than Walker, putting his foot in the ground
and driving forward. That makes him better when it comes to short
yardage situations as well as minimizing negative plays. He didn’t
get a ton of opportunities as a rookie, topping double-digit carries
just three times, all of which came when Walker was injured. Charbonnet
did serve as the primary third-down back and paced the team’s
RBs with 33 receptions for 209 yards.
In the big picture, it was far from an impactful first season
-- you would certainly want more from the 52nd overall pick than
671 combined yards and a single touchdown. The expectation is
for the new coaching staff to find additional ways for Charbonnet
to get involved in 2024. What exactly that means in terms of touches
is still unclear, but his pass-catching ability offers modest
upside as your fourth or fifth fantasy back.
Despite a less impactful season from Smith, Metcalf still put
together his third 1,000-yard campaign in his last four seasons.
The volume was down as his targets dipped from 141 to 119, and
his catches from 90 to 66 (his lowest total since his rookie year),
but he averaged a career-high 16.9 yards per reception -- that
was fifth among qualifying receivers -- that led to 1,114 yards
and 8 TDs, both of which were up versus his 2022 totals of 1,048
yards and six scores, respectively.
While receiver depth is one of Seattle’s strengths, it
feels like Metcalf is set to be more the No. 1 target than ever
before. He’ll turn 27 in December, so he’s still in
his prime, and at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, he’s able to make
things happen both at the line of scrimmage and downfield. With
Lockett entering the twilight years of his career, and JSN still
developing, Metcalf looks like the most reliable option for Smith
in 2024. Some level of uncertainty at the quarterback position
leaves Metcalf as a strong No. 2 fantasy wideout this year, though
he absolutely has the potential to reach WR1 status.
Despite appearing in 17 games for the first time in his career,
Lockett saw his streak of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons come
to an end at four. The one-time deep ball threat also continued
to see an erosion of his big-play ability, averaging just 11.3
yards per catch, the second-lowest figure during his nine years
in the league. In addition to his 894 yards, Lockett did lead
the team in targets (122) and receptions (79), so it’s not
as though he fell off a cliff statistically, but entering his
age-32 season, it appears his best days are behind him.
Seattle may be thinking something similar, and they restructured
the veteran’s contract during the offseason. Then there’s
also the matter of Smith-Njigba, who has drawn rave reviews for
his play in OTAs, looking like a player that’s ready for
a larger role. Again, it’s worth remembering this is a new
coaching staff with an eye toward the future, and they’d
prefer to see the younger wideout make a second-year leap. Where
does that leave Lockett? For fantasy owners, he’s a depth
selection as your fourth or fifth receiver.
Smith-Njigba was the first of 32 receivers selected in the 2023
NFL Draft, but he finished seventh among rookie wideouts in receptions
(63) and eighth in yards (628) while scoring four times. While
those are decent numbers, there were plenty of fantasy owners
disappointed by the former Buckeye’s efforts in Year 1.
Look for things to improve in 2024. JSN was a standout in OTAs
and minicamps, drawing praise from the coaching staff and those
that cover the organization. Granted, we’re talking non-contact
work, but the arrow appears to be pointing up.
His ascension isn’t a slam dunk, however, as he’ll
need to overtake Lockett to really start making a statistical
impact week to week. We’re also into uncharted territory
with the new coaching staff and what they’ll look to emphasize,
not to mention the possible upheaval at quarterback if things
start to go south for the Seahawks. Fantasy owners can be a fickle
lot, and doubtless many will feel burned after they overdrafted
Smith-Njigba a year ago. Don’t fall into that trap. Given
his talent, and the glowing reports about his offseason work,
you can draft JSN as a WR4 with decent upside.
Fant was a complete afterthought last year, being targeted just
43 times while sharing snaps with Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly,
both of whom are gone. The result was career lows across the board
with 32 receptions, 414 yards, and no touchdowns. Despite that,
the Seahawks re-signed Fant during the offseason to a two-year,
$22 million contract. For that kind of money, you’d expect
they’ll want to feature the former Broncos first-rounder
a little more.
How much more is the question. There aren’t that many teams
that can match Seattle’s top-three at the receiver position,
and Grubb has already said the running backs will feature more
prominently in the passing game as well. There’s only one
football, and with an influx of talent around the league at tight
end last year, Fant looks like an iffy choice even as a low-end
reserve.
