The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Ten
It was nice to see Fitzpatrick prove last week’s doubters wrong (myself included) as he had a big rebound game (263 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) against the Jets. He was aggressive and accurate (26-of-39 passing), frequently targeting WR Steve Johnson despite coverage from CB Darrelle Revis. RB C.J. Spiller was mediocre in his first start of the season (55 yards on 19 carries) and the Bills will likely need a boost from Fitzpatrick’s arm again this week to stay competitive. With his confidence high, he should be solid against the Titans at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Tennessee has been decent against the pass (229.1 yards per game, 16 TDs allowed) but will face a tougher test from Fitz in Orchard Park, NY than they did from QB Josh Freeman last week.

Andy Dalton @ Pit
Dalton was unspectacular but solid (270 yards, 1 TD; 6 rushes, 23 yards) last week versus Cleveland, posting a passer rating of 102 or better for the 4th time this season. His schedule does not ease up this week as the Bengals head to Pittsburgh, but he has shown surprising command and pocket presence throughout the season and should be up to the task. Dalton was held to 170 yards but managed 2 TDs versus the Steelers in Week 10. Although his yardage could be kept in check, but he has thrown at least 1 TD in 8 straight and in 10 of 11 games this season. Fellow rookie and top passing target, WR A.J. Green (44 receptions, 6 TDs) along with second-year TE Jermaine Gresham (37 receptions, 5 TDs) continue to click with Dalton and the trio will have to make plays in order to keep themselves afloat in the AFC North.

Tim Tebow @ Min
Obviously it’s time to forget about traditional QB fantasy play when it comes to Tebow. It doesn’t matter that he’s completed 20 measly passes (including 2 TDs) are over 3 games. Love him or hate him, his rushing ability (22 carries last week) makes him a steady option in most leagues. He could be in for an even bigger day in Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed an NFL-high 22 passing TDs with just 6 INTs (t-28th). They can certainly get to the QB (33 sacks) but they have all kinds of injury issues in their secondary. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos open up a few more pages of the playbook for Tebow, but I anticipate his hot streak will continue.

Josh Freeman vs. Car
An interesting trend has been developing in Freeman’s disappointing 2011 campaign. You can’t make this sort of thing up, and for whatever the reasons, Freeman posts a solid fantasy line every other week. Both his QB rating and yards per pass attempt have swung dramatically every other week for 11 games. Following the same logic would allow Freeman to finish with a QB rating of 96, 280 yards passing and 1 TD this week, especially when considering the Panthers and their vulnerable defense. Carolina allows 8.4 yards per pass (worst in NFL), which should really help Freeman get back on track, at least for one week. During Freeman’s last game versus the Panthers, he completed 75% of his passes en route to 241 yards and 2 aerial TDs.

Bench 'Em

Consider keeping Ryan on the bench this week against the Texans.

Philip Rivers @ Jax
For the first time since Week 4, struggling Chargers QB Philip Rivers did not toss an interception last week but threw for just 188 yards with 1 TD. There doesn’t seem to be one specific thing wrong with Rivers’ game, but his lackluster TD-to-INT ratio of 16:17 despite a healthy TE Antonio Gates and decent backfield play is alarming. WR Vincent Jackson has disappeared in the games following his last two outbursts and, despite the undeniable talent, his inconsistency must be frustrating for Rivers. The Jaguars are one of four NFL teams to hold opposing QBs under 200 passing yards per game (183.4), their 13 aerial TDs allowed ties for the 7th lowest total in the league; they have excelled at containing big passing plays.

Joe Flacco @ Cle
The Cleveland Browns, despite a poor 4-7 record, have managed to stay competitive in almost every game this season, largely because of their steady pass defense, which has allowed an NFL-low 174.7 passing yards per game. QB Andy Dalton’s 270 passing yards last week were the most that Cleveland has allowed since Matt Hasselbeck threw for 220 during Week 4. Only the Ravens (7) have allowed fewer passing TDs than the Browns (11). Although Flacco has possibly started to heat up and has experienced success in his career versus Cleveland, he has only 3 multi-TD games this season and should not be counted on for a big effort this week.

Rex Grossman vs. NYJ
Since re-claiming the reins to the Redskins offense, Grossman has been sharp in two of three games; he has averaged 303 passing yards per game over his last two, including 4 TDs and 3 INTs. The interceptions continue to be a problem for Rex and will likely not vanish this week. The New York Jets are fighting for their playoff lives and should be better defensively this week after getting diced by QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady in two of their last three. With Grossman firing passes, the Jets should be counted on to add to their interception total of 13. We’ve seen these streaks from Grossman before and he simply cannot be trusted in this spot.

Running Backs