The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em

Tony Romo vs. Phi
The Eagles pass defense leads the NFL with 46 sacks, so Romo will have to be sharp - and he should be. In addition to having a knack for evading tacklers prior to firing it downfield for a big play, Romo has been playing at a very high level. In addition to posting his first rushing score of the season last week, Romo tossed 3 TDs and has amassed 7 passing TDs and 0 INT over his last two games. Since their last meeting in Philadelphia, Romo has thrown multiple TDs in six of seven games with an impressive 18 TDs and 2 INTs (both picks came against the Dolphins) in that span. The Eagles have held opponents to 213.8 passing yards per game, but they have allowed 25 aerial TDs, which ties for the fourth highest total in the NFL (Bucs, Giants). Philadelphia has also been burned deep with semi-frequency. They have allowed 12 passing plays of 40 or more yards (tie – Broncos); only the Saints and Vikings (13 each) have allowed more.

Cam Newton vs. TB
Last week in Houston, Newton threw for a season-low 149 yards but managed 2 passing TDs against one of the top defenses in the NFL. This was a relatively quiet game by his standards but his owners with fantasy championships on the line should thank the scheduling gods after wiping their faces of drool. The Buccaneers have allowed 25 passing TDs, tied with the Eagles and the Giants for the 4th most in the league. Since it would be more of a surprise if Newton did not run for a score, it is worth mentioning that Tampa has allowed an NFL-high 20 rushing TDs, including 3 on the ground to Newton in their last meeting. The Bucs have allowed 141.1 rushing yards per game, 3rd highest in league (Rams, Browns). All of this points to a monster game for Cam this week; he threw for 204 yards and 1 TD (and the aforementioned 3 rushing TDs) when the teams squared off three weeks ago in Tampa.

Expect a shootout with the Saints on Monday night football.

Matt Ryan @ NO
The Red-hot Ryan tossed 3 TDs in three quarters of action last week and has produced 7 TDs against 0 INT in his last two and 11:2 (both picks came in Houston) over his last four. He is peaking at the right time for fantasy owners and showing great trust and chemistry his targets, particularly elite WR Roddy White. The last time Ryan faced the Saints (Week 10), he had a season-highs in pass attempts (52) and passing yards (351) along with 2 TDs and 1 INT. He has posted a passer rating of at least 110.9 in four of his last five games. In six career contests against the Saints, Ryan has averaged 263.2 passing yards per game with 9 aerial TDs. On the season (often while sitting on big leads) New Orleans has allowed an average of 256.1 passing yards per game, the fifth highest mark in the league. Also in Ryan’s favor, the Saints have only intercepted 8 passes, which is tied for third lowest number in the league (Browns, Colts).

Bench 'Em

Ben Roethlisberger vs. StL
It goes without saying that for any QB in 2011, facing the 49ers defense on the road is much less appealing than facing the Rams at home. So while Roethlisberger is a safe bet to put up better numbers this week, his playing through pain routine got old in a hurry as he did very little to help fantasy owners on Monday in San Francisco. Despite compiling 330 yards, he lost a fumble, threw 3 INTs and was held out of the endzone for only the second time this season. Unless he reports significant improvement in his sprained ankle in the coming days, his lack of mobility should be a deciding factor to leave him on your bench on Saturday. From Week 5 – 9 (4 games) Roethlisberger was scorching with 11 TDs and 2 INTs in that span, but since then (6 games) he has 7 TDs and 6 INTs. While this recommendation is mostly based on his injury, it is worth noting that the Rams have actually been better defending the pass of late; they’ve allowed 1 TD and 1 INT over their last two. On the season, the Rams have allowed 206.3 passing yards per game, the 8th lowest average in the NFL.

Carson Palmer @ KC
Last week Palmer threw for 367 yards and 1 TD as the Raiders blew the game versus Detroit in the closing minutes; they have dropped 3 straight games and Palmer has tossed only 4 TDs with 5 INTs during the losing streak. This week Oakland travels to Kansas City in a must-win game against the Chiefs, who themselves had one of the biggest upsets of the regular season last week at Arrowhead Stadium when they toppled the previously unbeaten Packers. A letdown could be in order, but on the season, the suddenly re-inspired Chiefs have allowed only 209.6 passing yards per game, the 9th best average in the NFL. They have 17 INTs, which ties for 6th highest number (Bears, Texans, Giants) in the league. Despite averaging just 1.9 sacks per game this season, KC has averaged 4.7 sacks per game over their last three and should be hurrying Palmer all afternoon.

Eli Manning @ NYJ
By all accounts, Eli has had a strong 2011 campaign; arguably the best fantasy season of his eight-year career. However, last week versus the Redskins, he was held without a TD pass for first time since Week 6 versus Buffalo. Drops by TE Jake Ballard and WR Hakeem Nicks certainly did not help, but Manning finished with 3 INTs and has now thrown at least 1 INT in 7 straight games. A bit of a bounce-back game should be expected, but I wouldn’t trust him with a fantasy championship at stake. Although this is hardly a road game for Eli, this week the Giants “travel” to MetLife Stadium to face the Jets, who have been one of the tougher teams to throw against all season. Opposing QBs have a rating of 70.7 against Gang Green, the 3rd lowest number in the NFL (Texans, Ravens). Only the Ravens (10) have allowed fewer TD passes than the Jets (13). In one career meeting with the Jets, Manning threw for 186 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Running Backs