Start 'Em

Santana Moss vs. Min
Mostly due to missing four games (Weeks 8 – 11) with a broken hand, Moss will finish this season with the fewest number of catches since he had 45 in 2004 as a NY Jet. He is yet to have a breakout game since his return, but he is starting to heat up with TDs in consecutive games and could be in line for a big game this week. The opportunities should be plentiful against the Vikings. Fresh off getting torched for 412 yards and 5 TDs by Drew Brees last week, the Vikings won’t do much to make it hard on QB Rex Grossman. He should find Moss early and often in this juicy matchup. Minnesota has allowed an NFL-high 31 aerial scores and has an NFL-low 6 INTs, a brutal combination. The last time faced the Vikings, Moss had had 5 catches for 40 yards (Week 12, 2010).

Miles Austin vs. Phi
Really, you can take your pick with the Dallas wide receivers. Bryant, Robinson and Austin have all remained productive in recent weeks as QB Tony Romo is playing the best football of his career. I’ll focus on Austin this week; although he’s missed six games due to injury, he’s scored TDs in consecutive weeks upon return from his most recent hamstring ailment. He has not had more than 74 yards receiving since Week 6 in New England, but now is as good a time as any for him to blow up. The Eagles have yielded 25 passing TDs, tied for the fourth highest number in the league. Austin has a chance to get behind the secondary this week as the Eagles have been vulnerable to the deep ball; they have allowed 12 passing plays of 40 or more yards this season.

Julio has 3 TDs in his last 2 games.

Julio Jones @ NO
Since returning from a hamstring injury of his own, Jones has been one of the primary Falcon beneficiaries of the strong play of QB Matt Ryan. Over the last three games, he has reeled in 12 passes for 257 yards with 3 TDs. Jones has four 100-yard games this season, two in the last five games. All 5 of his receiving TDs have come in the last five games – or really four-plus, Jones was forced from the contest the last time these teams met (Week 10) and finished with just 9 yards on 2 receptions. The Saints have allowed opponents an average of 256.1 passing yards per game (5th highest) and 22 TDs. Jones will be ready to make an impact on Monday night in New Orleans.

Bench 'Em

Brandon Lloyd @ Pit
There are obvious drawbacks to starting Lloyd on Saturday in Pittsburgh. After a nice five-game stretch from Weeks 8 – 12 in which Lloyd scored 4 TDs, he’s been held without a receiving TD in three straight games. Although he had 5 receptions last week (and 10 over last 2), who really knows what to expect when QB Kellen Clemens starts under center for a second straight game? Considering the state of the Rams, Lloyd has played well since his arrival from the Broncos, but it is worth noting that he has only topped 80 receiving yards twice since the trade and has not hit the century mark since Week 4 when he was catching passes from Kyle Orton. Finally, the matchup is less than ideal. The Steelers have allowed an NFL-low 179.6 passing yards per game and tend to play well at home. Only the Browns (14), Cardinals (14), Jets (13) and Ravens (10) have allowed fewer aerial TDs than the Steelers (15).

DeSean Jackson @ Dal
When he is “on,” Jackson is a fun player to watch and root for, but the reality is that he has taken a step backwards in his fourth NFL season. He has 1 receiving TD in his last eight games and topped 73 receiving yards just once in that span. Dating to last season, Jackson has 4 receiving TDs in his last 18 games - although one of them did come in Dallas (Week 14, 2010). On that note, the Cowboys have a tendency to give up big plays in big games, so it wouldn’t be a complete shock if Jackson were to make some noise. The Cowboys are slightly better than the middle of the pack in pass defense; 235.3 yards per game ranks them 14th and 19 passing TDs allowed is tied for the 12th lowest number in the NFL. In any event, I have a hard time trusting him at WR3 in a championship game based on his recent track record.

Pierre Garcon @ Hou
Garcon has been one of the bright(er) spots for the Colts in their long, Manning-less season. In his fourth NFL year, he has already set a career-high in receiving yards (875), tied a career-high with 6 receiving TDs and he is 6 catches from setting a career-high in receptions. Aside from his Week 13 explosion in New England (9 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs) however, he has been much too quiet in recent weeks to warrant a start in a championship game. Not only has the Texans run defense has been one of the better units in the NFL all season, their pass defense has been even better. They have limited opposing QBs to a 64.9 rating, the lowest mark in the league and teams have averaged 181.1 passing yards per game against them, the 2nd lowest number (Steelers, 179.6) in the NFL.

Happy Holidays & Good Luck in the Final Weeks of the Season!

Quarterbacks