Game selection is an undervalued skill in DFS. There is no exact
science to it, but you can tailor your strategy to your personal
goals. Personally I am a one lineup per week cash game person
unless extreme value presents itself where I like multiple plays
and then I hedge. On FanDuel in particular, if you trot out one
lineup it is to your advantage to do a higher volume of head-to-head
matchups as opposed to 50/50s.
Touchdowns are the most volatile stat in DFS and the hardest
to predict week to week. On a site like FanDuel, there is a higher
degree of variance from the impact of touchdowns having such a
large effect on our scores with no PPR or yardage bonuses. Head-to-Head
contests in my opinion allow you a higher floor week-to-week,
as you are able to pick your opponents as well as open yourself
up to still winning “some” of your money back with
a poor week. A poor week in 50/50s nets you nothing if you fall
below the cash line. Something to consider, depending on your
own personal goals.
Moving forward to Week 15, there are a ton of options to consider,
especially at the quarterback position. There is also clear value
at both running back and wide receiver that I will most definitely
be taking advantage of. Below is my current cash lineup as well
as some detailed value plays. Be sure to check back on Saturday/Sunday
morning for an update.
You must find a way to have exposure to the Cardinals offense
every single week. Michael Floyd has been arguably Arizona’s
best receiver as of late and he comes in as the cheapest out of
the top three. This week against the Eagles is a great spot for
Floyd, as he will get to take advantage of a banged up secondary
against a team that likes to push the pace. Vegas has this game
as one of the highest point totals of the week and Floyd is a
constant threat to catch a deep ball. He has four straight game
(while healthy) eclipsing 100 yards and will continue to be a
red-zone threat. For $6100 he is in a great position to hit value
yet again.
Spencer Ware did not practice on Wednesday and if West is given
a “feature” role we know what he can do with it. The
matchup isn’t great, but then again his matchup earlier
in the season against Denver wasn’t great either (161 yds,
2 TDs). His floor is naturally high because of his pass catching
ability and he will be given volume to be successful. He is nearly
a must play this week at a price. His floor is 100 total yards
this week and $5900 allows you to build up other parts of your
cash lineup.
Denard Robinson is another option, like West, that is very active
in the passing game which raises his floor. He also has fallen
into a larger role as T.J. Yeldon (knee) will not play Week 15.
The concern will be Robinson’s red-zone usage as the team
seems content to throw jump balls to Allen Robinson or target
TE Julius Thomas but at this price, volume is never a bad way
to go in cash.
Calvin Johnson’s price has not been this low all season
and he happens to be facing a Saints team that bleeds fantasy
points to everyone and anyone. He has Thanksgiving Megatron touchdown
upside in a game that will prove to be a shootout. There is no
one on the Saints that can stop him. His ceiling is not even close
to what it once was but his floor is safe in Week 15. He is averaging
nine targets per game and will have no problem hitting value in
cash with that kind of involvement in the offense.
Everyone is on Doug Baldwin, and for good reason, but too many
people are asleep on the emergence of rookie Tyler Lockett. His
targets are consistently trending up and he is a threat to score
every time he touches the ball, including on kick and punt returns.
The stack with Seahawks defense is an appealing “double
dip” option and is also cash viable. This week Cleveland
is another juicy matchup for Lockett and Seattle will be forced
to throw dealing with the mess that is their backfield.
Watson is still a favorite of Drew Brees in the red zone and
a big part of this Saints offense. In a week where we expect a
shootout yet again, there are worse places to put your money than
on a tight end facing Detroit who struggles to cover the position.
At $5600 he is a great value option at tight end for Week 15.
I mentioned above that Calvin Johnson is averaging nine targets
per game but Golden Tate is actually averaging 9.7 per game. His
numbers are similar to Megatron’s but you can get Tate cheaper.
Tate is a clear value this week and multi-touchdown upside is
real against the Saints. He should provide a good floor for cash
games on volume alone and quarterback Matthew Stafford will look
to him extensively. The Saints give up a lot, and they will give
up Tate in Week 15.
David Johnson is becoming a favorite weekly value play for me.
The Cardinals offense will get him in position to score as much
as any team in the league and he is active in the passing game.
Teams have to respect their receiving weapons enough that Johnson
doesn’t often see a loaded box in front of him. For some
reason his price has not gone up drastically even after two weeks
of solid production. Keep riding Johnson in cash until he lets
you down.