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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 3
Value Plays
9/25/15; Updated: 9/26/15


Each week in this column I will be highlighting my favorite value plays on Fanduel as well as my primary cash game lineup for the current week.

It was tough sledding for my primary cash game lineup last week as poor performances from Sam Bradford, Ameer Abdullah, and a combined score of 5 points from my Kicker and Defense were tough to come back from. Let’s look to rebound this week, as there are plenty of situations I really like.

As we look forward to Week 3, it is clear that Antonio Brown and Tom Brady are must starts until they let us down. I will be relying heavily on Marshawn Lynch, Travis Kelce, and John Brown this week as well. I believe this lineup to have a very high floor, which is exactly what you are looking for in your cash games.

9/26 Update: I'm no longer comfortable with my Marshawn Lynch shares this week in cash games. If you trotted him out in some Thursday lineups (like I did) you will hope for the best on his calf injury. In a week where there are some great options at running back I decided to pivot to Adrian Peterson against San Diego. I opted to include Gronkowski as well. There's no surer bet for a touchdown at the position and moving to Cam Newton allowed me the flexibility to pay up. This seems like a great week for value at wide receiver, but fading Antonio Brown in cash games definitely represents some risk.




Week 3- Value Plays

QB – Russell Wilson ($8400 FD) vs. CHI

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are struggling this year behind a bad offensive line. Wilson got things going in the second half last week against Green Bay but still has been unable to feature his new tight end Jimmy Graham on a consistent basis. This week against the Bears, I believe the 0-2 Seahawks are going to make a statement, and it starts with Wilson who will continue to have a high floor given his rushing ability. This high floor makes him a great play in cash games and at $8400, he is a clear value against a putrid Chicago Bears defense.

WR - John Brown ($6000 FD) vs. SF

Many people will be on Larry Fitzgerald this week and for good reason. He had three touchdowns last week and has been a target monster for Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. However, this week against San Francisco I expect Arizona to exploit a weak secondary, which has been getting shredded with deep passes as of late. Who is going to catch those deep balls? John Brown. His stats the first two weeks of the season are largely deceiving for what he has done for this offense. He has drawn huge pass interference penalties downfield that have led to scores. I expect him to real in at least one of those deep targets this week and a multi-touchdown week is coming. He is a value at $6000 on FanDuel while his counterpart Larry Fitzgerald is up to $6700 now. Grab this value for your cash lineups.

WR - Allen Hurns ($5100 FD) @NE

I expect Bill Belichick to take away the Jaguars best offensive weapon in this game, Allen Robinson. In a game that could get out of hand quick, Blake Bortles will have no choice but to air it out as they may be playing from behind most of the game. Hurns represents great value this week; garbage time counts all the same (although you should never plan for it). Considering the Tom Brady revenge tour is in full force for the foreseeable future, Hurns is a lock for a volume of targets on Sunday.

WR - Brandon Marshall ($7400 FD) vs. PHI

With Eric Decker (knee) going down last week, Brandon Marshall is in line for another big game. He took advantage of a decimated Indianapolis secondary last week and went for over 100 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. I expect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to look to Marshall early and often and for them to take advantage of cornerback Byron Maxwell, who has been struggling so far this season for the Eagles. Vegas lines expect this to be a very high scoring game and I expect the large volume of targets to continue for Marshall.

RB - Dion Lewis ($6700 FD) vs. JAC

Did I mention Tom Brady has something to prove to the NFL right now? That offense looks unstoppable at the moment due in large part to the emergence of Dion Lewis. There really is no comparison to him and Shane Vereen. Though both are great in the passing game Lewis has showed that he can do well between the tackles. Yes, he needs to do a better job taking care of the football but Belichick and Brady seem to trust him. He did not get benched after those fumbles and was relied upon in key situations shortly after. There is a chance the game script against Jacksonville will shift to LeGarrette Blount’s favor but I still believe Lewis will get his opportunities. For the price of $6700 he will have no problem achieving a great $/point value.

RB – Danny Woodhead ($6400 FD) @ MIN

Danny Woodhead is the clear red zone favorite in this offense and while he didn’t score a touchdown in Week 2, he did have over 100 total yards and 6 receptions. Those receptions give him a very high floor and he definitely has touchdown upside in any given week, even if San Diego attempts to get Gordon more involved. This week against Minnesota, I expect another solid game from Woodhead making him a safe cash game play, at a low salary.

TE – Travis Kelce ($6400 FD) @ Green Bay

For Kansas City to have a chance at keeping up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Travis Kelce will have to have a big game. I expect Alex Smith to continue to prioritize the intermediate and short passing routes and feature Kelce. On FanDuel his price of $6400 will look like great value in hindsight this time next week. If you don’t pay up for Gronk, Kelce is a great option for your cash game lineups.

TE - Jimmy Graham ($6300 FD) @ Minnesota

Jimmy Graham looked noticeably frustrated with his lack of involvement in the passing game last week against the Packers. Against a Chicago defensive unit this week I look for Graham to put up the stat line we have all been waiting for. Coach Pete Carroll went on record this week of saying that they have been trying to get Graham the ball, but they won’t force it. For a team that is 0-2, I expect them to get their most talented receiver involved extensively this week. There’s a very good chance that Marshawn Lynch is featured, but in the red zone I would be surprised if Wilson isn’t looking Graham’s way in this contest.