Each week in this column I will be highlighting my favorite value
plays on Fanduel as well as my primary cash game lineup for the
current week.
It was tough sledding for my
primary cash game lineup last week as poor performances from
Sam Bradford, Ameer Abdullah, and a combined score of 5 points
from my Kicker and Defense were tough to come back from. Let’s
look to rebound this week, as there are plenty of situations I
really like.
As we look forward to Week 3, it is clear that Antonio
Brown and Tom
Brady are must starts until they let us down. I will be relying
heavily on Marshawn
Lynch, Travis
Kelce, and John
Brown this week as well. I believe this lineup to have a very
high floor, which is exactly what you are looking for in your
cash games.
9/26 Update:I'm no longer
comfortable with my Marshawn
Lynch shares this week in cash games. If you trotted him out
in some Thursday lineups (like I did) you will hope for the best
on his calf injury. In a week where there are some great options
at running back I decided to pivot to Adrian
Peterson against San Diego. I opted to include Gronkowski
as well. There's no surer bet for a touchdown at the position
and moving to Cam
Newton allowed me the flexibility to pay up. This seems like
a great week for value at wide receiver, but fading Antonio
Brown in cash games definitely represents some risk.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are struggling this year behind
a bad offensive line. Wilson got things going in the second half
last week against Green Bay but still has been unable to feature
his new tight end Jimmy Graham on a consistent basis. This week
against the Bears, I believe the 0-2 Seahawks are going to make
a statement, and it starts with Wilson who will continue to have
a high floor given his rushing ability. This high floor makes
him a great play in cash games and at $8400, he is a clear value
against a putrid Chicago Bears defense.
Many people will be on Larry Fitzgerald this week and for good
reason. He had three touchdowns last week and has been a target
monster for Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. However,
this week against San Francisco I expect Arizona to exploit a
weak secondary, which has been getting shredded with deep passes
as of late. Who is going to catch those deep balls? John Brown.
His stats the first two weeks of the season are largely deceiving
for what he has done for this offense. He has drawn huge pass
interference penalties downfield that have led to scores. I expect
him to real in at least one of those deep targets this week and
a multi-touchdown week is coming. He is a value at $6000 on FanDuel
while his counterpart Larry Fitzgerald is up to $6700 now. Grab
this value for your cash lineups.
I expect Bill Belichick to take away the Jaguars best offensive
weapon in this game, Allen Robinson. In a game that could get
out of hand quick, Blake Bortles will have no choice but to air
it out as they may be playing from behind most of the game. Hurns
represents great value this week; garbage time counts all the
same (although you should never plan for it). Considering the
Tom Brady revenge tour is in full force for the foreseeable future,
Hurns is a lock for a volume of targets on Sunday.
With Eric Decker (knee) going down last week, Brandon Marshall
is in line for another big game. He took advantage of a decimated
Indianapolis secondary last week and went for over 100 yards and
a touchdown on eight catches. I expect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick
to look to Marshall early and often and for them to take advantage
of cornerback Byron Maxwell, who has been struggling so far this
season for the Eagles. Vegas lines expect this to be a very high
scoring game and I expect the large volume of targets to continue
for Marshall.
Did I mention Tom Brady has something to prove to the NFL right
now? That offense looks unstoppable at the moment due in large
part to the emergence of Dion Lewis. There really is no comparison
to him and Shane Vereen. Though both are great in the passing
game Lewis has showed that he can do well between the tackles.
Yes, he needs to do a better job taking care of the football but
Belichick and Brady seem to trust him. He did not get benched
after those fumbles and was relied upon in key situations shortly
after. There is a chance the game script against Jacksonville
will shift to LeGarrette Blount’s favor but I still believe Lewis
will get his opportunities. For the price of $6700 he will have
no problem achieving a great $/point value.
Danny Woodhead is the clear red zone favorite in this offense
and while he didn’t score a touchdown in Week 2, he did
have over 100 total yards and 6 receptions. Those receptions give
him a very high floor and he definitely has touchdown upside in
any given week, even if San Diego attempts to get Gordon more
involved. This week against Minnesota, I expect another solid
game from Woodhead making him a safe cash game play, at a low
salary.
For Kansas City to have a chance at keeping up with Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers, Travis Kelce will have to have a big game. I
expect Alex Smith to continue to prioritize the intermediate and
short passing routes and feature Kelce. On FanDuel his price of
$6400 will look like great value in hindsight this time next week.
If you don’t pay up for Gronk, Kelce is a great option for your
cash game lineups.
Jimmy Graham looked noticeably frustrated with his lack of involvement
in the passing game last week against the Packers. Against a Chicago
defensive unit this week I look for Graham to put up the stat
line we have all been waiting for. Coach Pete Carroll went on
record this week of saying that they have been trying to get Graham
the ball, but they won’t force it. For a team that is 0-2,
I expect them to get their most talented receiver involved extensively
this week. There’s a very good chance that Marshawn Lynch
is featured, but in the red zone I would be surprised if Wilson
isn’t looking Graham’s way in this contest.