No matter whose projections/rankings (redraft) you seek out and
study with respect to the forthcoming 2014 season, there is almost
universal agreement as to who the top six wide receivers are in
fantasy football. All six are prototypical in terms of size, pile
up receptions and are effective in the red zone, making their
value stand above highly skilled possession receivers and mere
red zone specialists. For the past three years, the leader of
this pack has unquestionably been Calvin
Johnson, the all-world, at times unstoppable, wide receiver
of the Detroit Lions. But, is “Megatron” still the best of the
bunch? And if he is, is he really worth drafting much ahead of
guys whose talent and track records all warrant consideration
for the top spot, as well? We’ll debate the issue and offer some
conclusions. As many now seek to build their teams around a top-tier
WR almost as often as a top-tier RB, figuring out what the “Magnificent
Six” bring to the table individually and in comparison to one
another is imperative.
According to our Consistency Calculator,
Calvin Johnson has been the most consistent wide receiver
over the last three years.
Calvin Johnson
Why he’s still the best of the bunch:
Three years, 5,200+ yards; from 2011-2013, that’s what Johnson
accomplished despite double-teams on a near weekly basis and while
battling nagging injuries at times. He continues to enjoy uninterrupted
rapport with a quarterback who is fearless when it comes to throwing
downfield. This offseason, the Lions added wide receiver Golden
Tate and tight end Eric
Ebron to the mix to free up Johnson to continue being what
he’s been for the entirety of this decade thus far. He’s only
28 years old- very much in his prime.
Caution required: Jim Caldwell is
now the head coach of the Detroit Lions. New coaches always bring
some mystery into the equation in terms of how their teams’ numbers
will look across the board, position-by-position. Under Caldwell,
the Baltimore Ravens’ passing game was a mess last year, with
quarterback Joe
Flacco regressing a bit and the offense taking a step back
overall. How much of that is on Caldwell as the offensive coordinator?
Additionally, in three of Johnson’s seven seasons, he’s recorded
five touchdowns or fewer. That is alarming given his size and
speed. Again, it would be easy to suggest the addition of Tate
and Ebron will free up Johnson in red zone situations, but what
if it doesn’t? What if Ebron becomes a matchup nightmare near
the goal line and Johnson becomes something of a decoy? Yes, Johnson
remains in his prime years, but you would be hard-pressed to find
anyone who believes 2012 was not his “career year.”
Contenders to The Throne: Demaryius
Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall
Hot on Johnson’s heels come five guys whose talent and fantasy
production and/or potential is unquestioned. So, how do you differentiate
between the five stars in ways that allow for the right choice
to be made in August redrafts? Here’s a list of some factors
to consider and how the five franchise wide-outs rank with regard
to those factors. The numbers reflect play over the past two seasons
so as to avoid each player’s rookie year.
Best quarterback throwing the ball:
Thomas (Peyton Manning), Jones (Matt Ryan), Marshall (Jay Cutler),
Bryant (Tony Romo), Green (Andy Dalton).
Most targets per game: Marshall
(11.2), Green (10.7), Jones (9.9), Bryant (9.3), Thomas (8.9)
Explosive potential (Yards Per Catch):
Thomas (15.4), Jones (14.7), Green (14.3), Bryant (14.2), Marshall
(12.9)
Receptions per game: Marshall (6.9),
Jones (6.6), Green (6.1), Thomas (5.9), Bryant (5.8)
TDs per game: Bryant (0.78), Thomas
(0.75), Marshall (0.72), Green (0.69), Jones (0.57)
Yards per game: Jones (95.5), Thomas
(89.5), Marshall (87.6), Green (86.8), Bryant (81.8)
Least risk (injury history, off-field issues,
age): Thomas, Green, Bryant, Marshall, Jones
If you take those seven factors into consideration by assigning
five points to every first-place slot down to one point for fifth,
the rankings would be as follows:
- Demaryius Thomas - 26 points
- Julio Jones - 22 points
- Brandon Marshall - 22 points
- A.J. Green - 19 points
- Dez Bryant - 16 points
What do those numbers tell us about each contender? Thomas is
the most complete receiver of the bunch. Jones’ value is being
held back by concerns with respect to last year’s season-ending
injury. Marshall’s value is higher in PPR leagues than in
redraft leagues due to how often he is targeted. Green, like Thomas,
does everything well but is not as valuable as Thomas due to QB
concerns. Bryant’s value is based prominently on what he does
in the red zone. All in all, however, these five receivers compare
well to Johnson in most of the categories and comprise the true
top tier in terms of value at the position.
Conclusions
Thomas is the only wide receiver who comes close to equaling Johnson’s
all-around production. Johnson still exceeds Thomas in four of
the seven factors noted above, but Thomas has greater stability
with respect to changes to cope with this offseason, both in terms
of coaching and surrounding personnel. That uncertainty alone,
combined with Johnson’s history of sometimes not being able
to find the end zone, is enough to make Thomas the new king at
wide receiver in 2014, if only by a photo finish. Both guys should
be drafted confidently in the first round of non-PPR redrafts
and early in the first round of PPR drafts.
Anyone following fantasy football over the last decade can see
the writing on the wall with respect to wide receivers. Their
value continues to increase while running-back-by-committees cut
into the value of running backs by virtue of fewer individual
carries and less utilization in the red zone. That being said,
RB remains a position of scarcity, whereas there is more WR depth
than ever before, as evidenced by 24 wide-outs gaining more than
1,000 receiving yards last season and 19 catching 80 passes or
more. So, how early should you look to take one of the aforementioned
top-tier WRs in redrafts next month? Beyond Johnson and Thomas,
I think any of the remaining four would be ideal early in the
second round of a redraft and late in the first round of a PPR-league
draft. Don’t be left without one of the six if at all possible,
as the drop-off in terms of value is steep once they’re
off the board. That makes it tricky if you’re picking early
in the first round and ideal if you’re picking late. Ideally,
one of the “Magnificent Six” paired with the position
of greatest scarcity (running back) seems like a great place to
start.
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