There appear to be more positive fantasy possibilities stemming
from coaching changes than negative ones, but nothing is guaranteed.
There are seven new head coaches in the NFL for 2015 and ten new
offensive coordinators. Aside from Gary Kubiak in Denver, all of
the new head coaches have a defensive background, so we’ll
focus primarily on the coordinators in this article.
OC Marc Trestman (Baltimore) has the
potential to keep Justin
Forsett’s value high for another season. Many fantasy owners
might not consider Forsett with a high pick in 2015 despite rushing
for 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns thinking 2014 will go down as his
“career” year. But, consider how Trestman used Matt
Forte in Chicago the past two years. Forte caught a whopping
176 passes the last two seasons, including 100-plus receptions last
year. Should Forsett remain healthy, 65 receptions are well within
reach with Trestman at the controls, making Forsett a significant
factor in PPR leagues.
OC Kyle Shanahan's arrival in Atlanta may
propel Julio Jones into a top five fantasy wide receiver.
OC Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta) is the
most respected/beloved coordinator of all-time within the confines
of the Pierre
Garcon Fan Club. Under Shanahan in 2013, Garcon piled up 113
catches and 1,300-plus yards before falling off a cliff in 2014
while Shanahan coordinated the Browns. The receiver poised to experience
a Garcon-like bump in numbers would be Julio
Jones. Jones will line up in “X” position for Shanahan and similar
to Garcon, should be peppered with targets all season long. However,
Julio is more talented than Garcon and is playing for a new contract.
This could be a match made in fantasy football heaven.
OC Dirk Koetter (Tampa Bay) is the
new coordinator in Tampa after a stint in Atlanta. Koetter’s running
game sputtered with the Falcons as the strength of the offense rested
with Matt
Ryan and the receivers. Koetter has been brought in to help
develop Jameis Winston, no doubt, and with the Buccaneers struggling
to run the ball the last two seasons, the prospects of Doug
Martin and Charles
Sims getting off the fantasy mat seem slim. Nothing in Koetter’s
track record sans a good season or two with Maurice
Jones-Drew early in his career suggests that the Tampa running
game will see a resurgence under Koetter’s watchful eye.
New Player
A new player coming to a team that retained its head coach is typically
swimming into favorable waters. It’s very likely the player was
sought out specifically with a particular coach’s scheme in mind.
But things don’t always turn out as planned. Here’s some thoughts
on a couple of players playing for new coaches whose fortunes could
go in opposite directions.
C.J.
Spiller (New Orleans) may benefit from a new set of coaches
as much or more than anyone else in the league. Spiller has needed
some new blood overseeing him for some time now, and I think the
Saints will look to cut down on their turnovers by throwing a lot
of “safe” passes to Spiller in open space. It will be a more conservative
offense in New Orleans to be sure in 2015, but Payton and company
know how to utilize an explosive pass-catching back out of the backfield.
This is a good change for Spiller and it could make him a viable
#2 fantasy running back once again.
Andre
Johnson (Indianapolis) would appear to be on the verge
of liberation headed from one of the league’s worst offenses to
one of its best. However, the switch could very well turn out to
be “fool’s gold”. Andrew
Luck is one of the top two fantasy quarterbacks, but his preference
is to throw the deep ball to T.Y.
Hilton and target his tight ends extensively, both between the
twenties and in the red zone. Johnson will assume Reggie
Wayne’s old role and while he’s likely an upgrade, it doesn’t
mean he’s a lock to reproduce Wayne’s stat line from 2012 (106-1355-5).
Hilton, Coby
Fleener and Dwayne
Allen are all maturing threats in Pep Hamilton’s system which
doesn’t require one receiver to dominate targets. Don’t over value
Johnson based on the quarterback change alone. Houston tried to
force-feed Johnson the ball. That won’t happen in Indianapolis.
New Coach, New Player
There are several notable coaching changes in 2015 that also include
the introduction of a new player into the mix. These situations
are especially fascinating given the uncertainty the two new elements
brings. A couple new/new scenarios look like ideal fits, while one
doesn’t appear quite so palatable.
Greg Roman (Buffalo) is bringing his
conservative (some would say unimaginative) offense from the Bay
area to Buffalo this season. Roman was known to keep things close
to the vest with Colin
Kaepernick behind center and now inherits a quarterback situation
that makes Kaepernick’s presence look like stability. Enter LeSean
McCoy. There’s some question if Roman’s run-first schemes will
benefit McCoy, especially if defenses load up on run defenders based
on Buffalo’s lack of quarterback prowess. What I do feel fairly
certain about is McCoy’s workload. Under Roman, the 49ers hovered
around 500 carries per year as a team in the four years that Roman
served as offensive coordinator. That’s over 30 carries per game.
Assuming McCoy gets at least 65% of those carries with the Bills,
he should easily finish the season in 300-325 carry range. Rex Ryan
wants to win now and prove that the Jets gave up on him too soon.
He and Roman will be willing to run McCoy into the ground to prove
that point.
Chan Gailey (NY Jets) is remembered
as a mediocre head coach in most circles, but much like Norv Turner,
Gailey has experienced above average success as a coordinator. This
year, he inherits his biggest challenge to date with Geno
Smith at quarterback, Chris Ivory at running back and Brandon
Marshall at receiver. Gailey is smart and experienced enough
to know that Marshall is easily his best red zone target and even
if Marshall’s reception totals decrease from his days in Chicago,
he’ll likely become the focal point of Gailey’s attack when the
offense is in position to score. Marshall’s best days are likely
behind him, But Gailey is likely to open up the offense just enough
that an uptick in production…maybe even double-digit TDs are within
reach for this coach/player pairing.
Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison (Denver)
didn’t hesitate to bring along Owen
Daniels when they bolted from Baltimore to Denver this off-season.
As such, it’s a new start for Daniels and his former coaches, but
offensively, this is still Peyton
Manning’s team and Dennison won’t rock the boat. With Cody
Latimer working hard to improve on last year’s rookie season
and Emmanuel
Sanders operating with brilliance opposite Demaryius
Thomas, is there room in Denver for a veteran tight end with
average speed to thrive? Doubtful. The coaching changes in Denver
mean little to nothing as long as Manning is still there and the
quarterback has better weapons than Daniels to turn to in 2015.
You’ll be seeing more of the running game in Denver this season
as well so don’t put much stock in Daniels being a TE1 just because
his coaches like and trust him.
