One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football team
is trying to decide between two players you essentially see as having
identical value. Knowing how to break such a tie can be important
as often a pick comes down to a dilemma between Player A and Player
B. The purpose of this article is to not only identify pairs of
players that are considered of nearly equal value in 2021, but also
take a look at the process of solving those dilemmas. Our first
installment of this feature examines two dynamic young QBs who are
likely to be the first QBs considered once Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are off the board.
Lamar Jackson has played in the NFL one more year than Kyler Murray
and while many would consider his 2020 season a disappointment,
Jackson did account for a respectable 33 TDs (passing, rushing)
and also rushed for 1,000+ yards for a second straight season.
Murray, meanwhile, improved from his rookie year in all major categories
including passing yards, passing TDs, rushing yards, rushing TDs,
and completion percentage.
I think it is fair to say that both QBs are coming into their prime
as fantasy producers even if Jackson never fully duplicates his
sophomore season (2019). So, who is the better choice? If you’re
wondering, you’ve come to the right place.
The Strengths
For one, Murray is a much more natural thrower of the football
than Jackson and is almost certainly headed for his first 4,000+
yard season this year after topping 3,900 yards last season. As
noted above, however, it was his bump in rushing stats that got
fantasy managers most excited. Murray added 7 rushing TDs to his
total from 2019 and netted nearly 300 more yards on the ground in
his second season including 8 games in which he ran for 60 yards
or more. For those scoring at home, 60 yards rushing is the equivalent
of 120-150 yards of passing depending on how many yards it takes
in your league to accumulate a point. The rushing doesn’t
set him apart from Jackson who is even more dynamic in that department.
But, it keeps him in the same league and that combined with his
clear passing superiority makes him a more authentic dual threat
in the true sense of the word.
Lamar Jackson may not have a 4,000-yard season like Murray is poised
to have, but the Ravens went to great lengths in the NFL Draft to
insure that he’ll have upgraded targets this season. Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace were both highly touted coming out of
college and possess skill sets that should fit with Jackson’s
game. The Ravens pounced on both and while their contributions in
September may be minimal, both could shine when it matters most
late in the season. Much of the reason Lamar lost ground in 2020
in terms of yardage, completion percentage, and touchdowns can be
attributed to the de facto WR2 and WR3 being Willie Snead and Miles Boykin. The two combined for only 52 catches, which would be well
below average for a WR2 alone. Perhaps the addition of Sammy Watkins
can help in that regard. Jackson’s tremendous rushing prowess
is an obvious strength and as such, doesn’t warrant additional
commentary. But, the increase in firepower on the offensive side
of the ball in Baltimore warrants plenty of consideration and then
some.
The Weaknesses
183.8 yards passing per game. That’s what Jackson averaged
in 2020 over the span of the 15 games he played in. Only Tua Tagovailoa
and Cam Newton averaged fewer yards per game. It is easy to see
the path to improved passing numbers, but the paltry nature of the
number 183.8 stands out like a sore thumb. In leagues that give
yardage bonuses for 300-yard passing games, Jackson will rarely
grant you a day in which his passing yardage yields significant
totals. Consider that Patrick Mahomes averaged 316 yards per game
passing last season. That’s over 132 yards more or the equivalent
of 6.6 fantasy points per game in passing yards alone. Jackson’s
game simply isn’t built for explosive passing numbers and
even the improved receiving corps won’t likely change that
drastically.
In the end, Jackson’s value primarily lies in his incredible
ability to gain yards rushing and score TDs on the ground. And,
defensive coordinators have had another year to scheme for that.
Murray, meanwhile, threw for 248.2 yards per game in 2020 and
matched Jackson’s TD total from a passing standpoint. He
even bested Jackson in the rushing department with respect to
touchdowns scored. But, he also fumbled the ball eight times after
Week 6 after only fumbling once prior. Murray often tries to do
too hard to extend plays and makes himself vulnerable for turnovers.
If your league penalizes fumbles heavily, it is something to keep
in mind.
Additionally, Murray plays the Rams and 49er defenses FOUR times
in 2021 and every year for that matter that he’s the Cardinal
signal caller. In the four divisional clashes in 2020 against
both defenses, Murray averaged 184.2 passing yards and 1 TD in
those games. This season, all four games with those two foes fall
within the “regular season” of fantasy football. Including
the bye week, that means that five times between weeks 1-14, Murray
might not be your best option at the position. While matchups
are an issue for every player, Murray (and Russell Wilson who
is affected in an identical way) bears the weight of that a little
differently given the strength of those particular defenses.
The Verdict
While all of Murray’s statistics improved in Year Two of
his career, Jackson’s fell in Year Three. The simplistic approach
would be to suggest that Murray’s career arc in terms of fantasy
production is still very much on its way up while Jackson peaked
two years ago. But, Jackson isn’t a running back who just
hit age-30. He’s a 24 year-old superstar who is highly motivated
to bounce back in a big way this season and prove that he can be
a more complete QB. That means taking advantage of new receivers.
That means utilizing one of the top tight ends in the league more,
particularly in the red zone. And, that still means another 1,000
yard rushing season most likely as he’s too talented not to
use his legs to make things happen as plays break down. All of that
means Jackson’s floor is quite high- something fantasy managers
pay attention to at a position that matters more than most tend
to admit.
It is reasonable, to assume that Murray’s numbers
ARE going to improve yet again. Why not? He’s got skill
set players lined out wide that Jackson can only dream about.
And, he’smore likely to try to have to win games in the
fourth quarter when the Ravens are generally just trying to grind
out the clock. Murray will likely rush for fewer yards as the
Cardinals look to cut down on his fumbles, but he’s still
a lock for 600 yards and a half dozen scores. He too has a high
floor with a high ceiling to boot.
While he does have a tougher schedule than Jackson, weeks 15-17
include Detroit, Indianapolis, and Dallas. If you are still playing
at that juncture of the season, you’ll want him in your
lineup.
This is a close call as the projected stats below show, but Jackson
may need most of the season to gel with his receivers, so Murray
and his better passing numbers plus better closing schedule gets
the nod. Either way, both will make for high-end QB1s and give
your team stability and then some at the QB position.
Projected 2021 Statistics:
