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Which WRs will Rise into the Fantasy Top Ten in 2023?



By Joseph Hutchins | 8/23/23

OK, new assignment. I spent the past couple weeks talking about players I think are overvalued and more likely than not to fall out of the Top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss the players I think have the best shot at replacing them. Some have been there many times before and others would be making their first appearance, but all of them would be outperforming their 2022 selves should they prove me right. Also, full disclosure: Only two of them have to do that for me to outperform MY 2022 self. LOL!

A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s Non-PPR league scoring.

  Top 10 Wide Receivers - 2022
Rank Player
1 Justin Jefferson
2 Davante Adams
3 Tyreek Hill
4 A.J. Brown
5 Stefon Diggs
6 CeeDee Lamb
7 Jaylen Waddle
8 Amari Cooper
9 DeVonta Smith
10 Amon-Ra St. Brown

Wide Receivers Most Likely to Rise in 2023:

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN: Cut me a little slack, would ya’? Last year was my worst ever predicting Top 10 Risers (1 for 9), so I could use a layup in 2023. Chase is about as sure a thing as there is at the position, provided he stays healthy. He plays for a Super Bowl contender, plays with the most successful young slinger in the game, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in over half his 29 NFL appearances. In fact, only three other WRs have averaged more FPts/G since he came into the league in 2021: Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and his college teammate Justin Jefferson, this year’s consensus WR1.

Chase isn’t far behind as the consensus WR2 (ADP 2.7 in PPR leagues) and one couldn’t be faulted for prioritizing him over that other LSU product. Though he has more competition for targets in Cincinnati (Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, most notably), he’s a much more reliable scorer of touchdowns. Despite playing in 21 fewer NFL games than Jefferson, he’s scored only three fewer career TDs. Yards and receptions matter too, especially in PPR leagues, but those six-pointers are still the surest path to a healthy bottom line on game days and Chase is a paydirt machine.

Of course, it’s hard to score points when you’re watching in sweats and Chase did that too often in 2022, missing five games on account of a fractured hip (ouch!). That he was able to avoid IR and return for a Bengals playoff run bodes well for his future in the league, where playing through pain is just part of the job description. I’m not a doctor or a psychic, but if he plays all 17 this year, there’s no chance the Bengals’ WR1 doesn’t return to the Top 10 ranks.

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson, NYJ: I’ve already tagged Wilson’s new battery mate as a Top 10 Riser, so why not the guy he’ll be tossing those HOF-worthy spirals to come September? There was nothing HOF-worthy about the Jets’ quarterback room in 2022, which makes what the former Buckeye did in his first season—83 receptions, 1,103 yards, and four scores—all the more remarkable. Those numbers are almost statistically indistinguishable from digits put up by WR11 Christian Kirk (84 receptions for 1,1018 yards) and WR13 Tyler Lockett (84 and 1,033), not to mention the aforementioned WR12, Chase (87 and 1,046, though he played five fewer games). Where Wilson failed to measure up was in the TD department, something he’ll need to improve upon to make a Top 10 leap.

What do you think the chances are he doesn’t do that playing with red zone maestro, Aaron Rodgers? The Head Cheese has always needed time to gel with his new targets, which is probably why he dragged “blankies” Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb over with him from Wisconsin. Nevertheless, it isn’t going to take him long to establish rapport with the much more athletic Wilson, especially since suddenness and separation are the kid’s calling cards. Davante Adams got open for A-Rodge by being the league’s best route runner. Wilson will do it by being an extremely fluid athlete who also happens to have great hands and top-notch speed (4.38 40-yd dash).

If you need any further convincing, consider that Christian Watson, a similarly athletic but rawer rookie, averaged 13.3 FPts/G from Week 10 on last year. If Wilson can avoid getting sent to Rodgers’ doghouse in the first place (catch that first deep ball, Garrett!), he’s got a great chance to crack the Top 10 in year two.

DK Metcalf, SEA: I actually considered Watson for this final spot, but will instead go with a similarly freakish athlete who sports a more accomplished resume and who didn’t suffer the loss of an all-time great at the QB position. Geno Smith will never be confused with an all-time great, but he’s a successful starter in the NFL, which is something we wouldn’t have thought possible heading into the 2022 season. With Smith at the helm, Metcalf commanded 141 targets and turned them into 90 receptions, both career highs. He also tallied just over 1,000 receiving yards, well off his 2020 pace (1,303) but more than he’d accumulated in 2021 (967).

Alas, what kept Metcalf outside the velvet rope in 2022 was the same thing that prevented Garrett Wilson from making an even bigger splash in his rookie season, a paucity of six-pointers. After notching 22 in the two years prior, Metcalf managed only 6 TDs last season. This despite being targeted a whopping 27 times in the red zone, second only to Justin Jefferson. The glass half empty version? He isn’t able to leverage uncommon size and athleticism into productivity when it counts (or, less charitably, he can’t catch a cold). The glass half full version? This uncommon athleticism and size are WHY he’ll continue to command so much attention nearer the goal line and touchdown regression is definitely a thing.

I’m not usually a glass half full guy, folks, but I’m all in on DK this year. I believe he’ll continue to be heavily targeted in the red zone and be more efficient with those targets. I also believe the addition of Jaxson Smith-Njigba will give Seattle opponents even more to worry about this coming season. Metcalf returns to the Top 10 after a one-year hiatus.





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