Nobody needs to be told
starting Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, or Calvin Johnson is
a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position,
though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This
is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain
basement QB to use and which to ignore on Manning’s bye
week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back
because Charles is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need
to know which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit
since you ignored Megatron and went Jimmy Graham-RB-QB in your
first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin your Sundays
in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays). Read on for
a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
He may not look pretty at times but Mark
Sanchez has averaged 328 yards in last three games.
Grab a Helmet
Matthew
Stafford v. CHI (Thursday): Detroit kicks off Thanksgiving’s
football feast, as per tradition, but what looks like a tasty fantasy
matchup could quickly prove unappetizing if recent trends hold.
Despite a come-from-behind victory over lowly Tampa last Sunday,
the Bears are still in disarray. The Lions, meanwhile, have gone
from division front-runner to playoff bubble squad in just two short
weeks. Stafford hasn’t thrown a TD pass since Week 10 and is, consequently,
catching most of the heat for Detroit’s downward slide. Through
the first 13 weeks of 2013, he’d dipped below 20 fantasy points
just once. Since then, he’s missed that mark TEN times. That’s a
negative trend he’ll need to reverse immediately and there are two
good reasons he might: 1) He’s averaged about 27 points per Turkey
Day since 2011; and 2) Chicago’s yielded 25 TD passes so far, the
second worst mark in the NFL.
Mark
Sanchez @ DAL or Tony
Romo v. PHI (Thursday): Things get decidedly less dicey
for us come Thursday afternoon when the day’s first marquee matchup,
pitting NFC East rivals, kicks off. Any game featuring Philly is
a potential fantasy bonanza – for good reasons and bad if you’re
an Eagles backer – and this one also happens to co-star the league’s
highest-scoring running back and two top-six receivers. That’s another
way of saying Tony Romo has plenty to work with on his side of scrimmage
and a great team to work it against. Not that Sanchez should be
taking a back seat. The notoriously finicky Philly fans may already
be grumbling about his turnovers, but he’s topped 300 yards in three
straight starts and has scored the sixth most points at QB since
taking over for Nick
Foles. I’m not sure you can go wrong with anyone in this showdown.
Ryan
Tannehill @ NYJ (Monday): The Bears and Eagles have been
really bad against opposing QBs, surrendering almost 50 passing
TDs combined. The Jets, though, have been historically bad. They’ve
not only given up the most passing TDs (27). They’ve also managed
to snatch the fewest interceptions (3). Nobody’s nabbed that miniscule
an amount since 1982 (Houston’s Oilers) and, unsurprisingly, opposing
QBs have now posted an astounding 109.4 rating against New York
through 12 weeks. I researched back to the year of my birth (1971,
but please don’t do the math) and discovered that only a single
team has been worse against opposing passing attacks in that span:
the winless 2008 Detroit Lions (110.9 rating). That squad was coached
by another defensive “genius,” Rod Marinelli, and I’d say the chances
of Rex Ryan joining Marinelli and his twin brother Rob as a defensive
coordinator next season sit at roughly 99.9%.
Grab a Clipboard
Colin
Kaepernick v. SEA (Thursday): The Thanksgiving nightcap
isn’t the most eagerly anticipated matchup of Week 13 (try that
aforementioned Eagles/Cowboys square-off or the Pats/Pack clash),
but don’t tell that to folks out here in the Pacific Time Zone.
Before Arizona absconded with the division lead, this Conference
Championship rematch looked like another potential epic. Some
luster’s been lost, but it’s still going to be a duel to the death
and the losing team faces an uphill battle to reach the playoffs,
especially if it’s San Francisco. It will be and Kaepernick’s
inability to solve Seattle’s devilish defense will be the reason
why. He ran wild back in January (11 carries for 130 yards), but
hasn’t topped 50 yards this season since Week 4. Moreover, he’s
struggled mightily as a passer against Seattle’s stingy secondary
in four career starts (175 passing yds/game, three TDs, and seven
picks). Sit him down.
Drew
Stanton @ ATL: Back in Week 2, a full 25% of the 16
winning NFL quarterbacks hailed from Michigan State University,
that renowned Big 10 quarterbacking factory. One of them was obviously
Stanton, the elder statesman of the bunch and a career backup.
Cleveland’s Brian Hoyer was another and Washington’s Kirk Cousins,
temporarily relieving RGIII, was the third. Can you guess who
the fourth was? Here’s a hint: He’s easily been the most productive
pro and didn’t actually star at MSU, though he originally matriculated
there. I don’t know what any of this has to do with Stanton as
a fantasy option in Week 13 against Atlanta other than this: If
you’re looking for a passable, stopgap solution at the position,
you could probably do worse than a Spartan alum. If you’re looking
for a stud, you should probably look elsewhere. The matchup is
good but that’s about it.
Brian
Hoyer @ BUF: If we’re giving credit where it’s
due, the aforementioned Hoyer deserves plenty for piloting a modestly
talented Browns squad – minus its best player – to
a 7-4 record and a virtual tie atop the AFC North with every other
team in the division. He deserves extra credit for doing all this
while weathering the Money Manziel media frenzy on an almost weekly
basis. None of that, however, means I’d want to be relying
on him to propel me into the fake football playoffs this coming
weekend. He’s just the 19th most productive option at QB,
has only thrown 11 total TDs (fewest among those who have started
10 or more games), and does literally nothing with his feet. Getting
Josh Gordon back changes things a bit, yes, but Buffalo is no
joke on defense and the Bills aren’t out of the playoff
hunt either. Sit Hoyer down.
Running Backs 
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