Nobody needs to be told starting Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson,
or Antonio Brown is a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have
studs at every position, though, unless you’re in the shallowest
of leagues. This is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help
deciding which bargain basement QB to use and which to ignore
on Rodgers’ bye week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions
at running back because Johnson is a game-time decision? Look
no further. Need to know which of your unproven targets to start
and which to sit since you ignored Brown and went RB-QB-Gronk
in your first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may
not guarantee future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin
your Sundays in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays).
Read on for a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: Atlanta, Denver, New Orleans, Washington
The Patriots defense has allowed the most
fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks.
Grab a Helmet
Jameis
Winston v. NE (Thu): If anyone could right a ship in
four short days, it’s definitely Bill Belichick, New England’s best
in the biz ball coach. I’m just not certain this particular ship,
Coach B’s atrocious defense, can be fixed that easily or that quickly.
The Pats are hemorrhaging yards?50 more per game than anyone else,
a record-setting pace?and have surrendered nearly as many points
(128) as they’ve scored (129). Put another way, they’re facing the
offensive equivalent of, essentially, the New England Patriots every
week. Tampa’s young guns must be licking their chops to exploit
the suddenly susceptible Super Bowl champs and you can bet Winston
views this weekday primetime showcase as a measuring stick game.
He’s no Tom
Brady and won’t ever be, but he doesn’t really have to be against
Tom Terrific’s teammates. Winston and all of his skill position
cohorts are solid plays Thursday night.
Carson
Palmer @ PHI: Palmer’s 78.2 quarterback rating through
four weeks suggests the decline we feared was coming has finally
arrived. If he continues performing thusly, 2017 will end up being
his least efficient season in a decade. Losing David Johnson certainly
hasn’t helped and neither has an offensive line that’s allowing
him to get dumped at an alarming rate (a league high 17 sacks, on
pace for third most in NFL history). Nevertheless, the cagey veteran
is still slinging the pigskin with wild abandon and that, my friends,
is all that really matters for our purposes. Palmer’s 183 passing
attempts are by far a league high and have resulted in a nifty 321
passing yards a game. That’ll definitely do, especially if he starts
converting more of them into six-pointers. The shorthanded Eagles’
secondary is getting abused by opposing slingers and this Sunday
will prove no exception. Start Palmer. Matthew
Stafford v. CAR: If Palmer keeps chucking it at his current
rate, he actually has a chance to break Stafford’s NFL record 727
attempts, set during the 2012 season. Oddly, Detroit is paying its
main man much more these days ($27 million per year) to do much
less (fewer than 600 attempts two years running). That’s made the
Lions more successful, for sure, but has dented Stafford’s value
as a fantasy option at the position. Or has it? Detroit’s faced
three of the league’s best corners so far (Patrick Peterson, Desmond
Trufant, and Xavier Rhodes) and only missed a fourth by chance (Janoris
Jenkins was a DNP in Week 2). Carolina doesn’t possess a next level
stopper on the perimeter and just got worked by Drew Brees and Tom
Brady in succession. Stafford is in their league. I’m expecting
a throwback-type performance from the Lions’ franchise man this
Sunday.
Grab a Clipboard
Cam
Newton @ DET: Carolina’s franchise man, meanwhile,
seems to believe football science eludes us mere mortals, especially
those of the fairer sex. (Eye roll emoji.) We may not know the
ins and outs of the Panthers’ playbook or the intricacies of their
route trees, but…well, one could argue Newton doesn’t either based
on the way he played the first three weeks. He’d probably do well
to remember that his “get well” game in Week 4 came at the expense
of a New England defense that’s literally in complete tatters
right now (see above). And oh by the way? Football ain’t exactly
rocket science, not even at the professional level. Teams that
play good defense usually make life tough for QBs and Detroit,
by the only measure that matters, is playing good defense (yielding
only 17.5 points/game, fewer than Denver and Seattle). I’d be
very leery of starting Newton Sunday.
Joe
Flacco @ OAK: Flacco’s never been a sexy option at
the QB spot, but in deeper leagues or two-QB leagues, he’s proven
serviceable over the years. You could avoid losing, shall we say,
with him under center, and that’s sometimes all you’re trying
to do when the bye weeks hit. Our game becomes a war of attrition
from Week 5 on and guys like Flacco, despite obvious limitations
(no mobility, too many turnovers, conservative offense), could
definitely see you through. Emphasis on that “could” part because
that no longer appears to be the case. The one-time Super Bowl
champ is averaging a ridiculous 11.5 fantasy points per game,
or fewer than Jared
Goff averaged last season during his abysmal rookie season.
Flacco should have many good seasons left in him but already looks
past his prime and anachronistic in this day and age of multi-dimensional
signal callers. Drop him.
Mitchell
Trubisky v. MIN (Mon): Speaking of multi-dimensional
signal callers…. It’s officially Trubisky time in
the Windy City and not a moment too soon for Bears fans starving
for a long-term solution at quarterback. Only Browns fans have
waited longer and there are only so many performances like “that
one” a fan base can suffer before its well-worn patience
runs even thinner. I’m talking, of course, about Mike Glennon’s
implosion last Thursday night (two picks and two fumbles) at Lambeau
Field. Ready or not, it’s time to see what Chicago has in
its No.2 overall draft pick. Though I’m excited about his
future, there are better opponents to debut against than the Minnesota
Vikings, who are yielding just 18.4 points to opposing QBs despite
facing some of the league’s best (Brees, Big Ben, and the
aforementioned Stafford). It’s hard to be patient when rooks
are blowing up everywhere, but…be patient.
