Undervalued

The case for Engram being undervalued: Engram should continue to see steady targets with an opportunity for his role to grow in Jacksonville’s offense.

The case against Engram being undervalued: Engram’s low aDOT and role in the shallow area of the field caps his ceiling.

Verdict: Last year, Engram quietly set the record for the most receptions in a single season by a tight end. He amassed 114 catches on 143 targets (1st among TEs) en route to a TE4 finish. He was Trevor Lawrence’s safety blanket and was extremely effective in this role.

There is nothing preventing Engram from maintaining elite volume once again in 2024. He proved to be an offensive cornerstone in Jacksonville and will reprise his high-usage role. TEs who see 120+ targets and a target share above 20 percent are few and far between. But Engram should hit these numbers, making him a tremendous value in PPR leagues.

Engram was able to finish as a top-five TE without finding the endzone until Week 13. He should have the opportunity to expand his red zone usage this season. Calvin Ridley left the Jaguars in free agency, vacating 25 red zone targets. The team added Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. to help as vertical threats, but Ridley’s departure will allow Engram to improve on his four TDs from last season.

Jaguars’ head coach Doug Pederson has even discussed getting Engram involved in the vertical passing game. Explosive plays from vertical routes would allow Engram to reach an even higher ceiling. Regardless, Engram’s role in Jacksonville’s offense makes him one of fantasy football’s safest options at the position. TE7 seems like the floor.

Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 15.01, TE19

The case for Fant being undervalued: Ryan Grubb’s air raid offense could unlock the ability of this highly athletic tight end.

The case against Fant being undervalued: Fant has been irrelevant for fantasy purposes since 2021 and has not shown much through five NFL seasons.

Verdict: Noah Fant should not be drafted with plans to rely on him for fantasy production heading into the season. But he is an interesting player to stash on benches as he could reasonably outperform his price.

Since joining the Seahawks, Fant has been part of an ugly TE committee which has held back his ability to produce meaningful fantasy stats. He split snaps with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson, leading to a route participation of just 56 percent in 2023. Both Dissly and Parkinson left Seattle in free agency, leaving the door open for Fant to push for more routes. Fant is an athletic TE who posted a 9.88 relative athletic score (RAS). With more routes and opportunities, he could jump into the TE1 tier.

Seattle will also feature a new offense in 2024. The Seahawks hired the University of Washington’s head coach Ryan Grubb to run their offense. Grubb engineered one of college football’s most dominant passing attacks and will look to do the same in Seattle. This air raid offense is what could bring the most out of Fant. Grabbing him for free and taking a shot on Seattle being a breakout offense is a good idea if you opt to punt the TE position.

Overvalued

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
ADP: 2.12, TE2

The case for LaPorta being overvalued: LaPorta is due for touchdown regression and his ceiling is capped by Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The case against LaPorta being overvalued: LaPorta just had the best rookie TE season of all time and should improve in year two.

Verdict: LaPorta put on a show during his rookie season. He earned a target on 26 percent of routes (3rd among TEs) and had 1.95 yards per route run (6th). He ultimately finished as the TE1 on the back of 10 TDs. He should undoubtedly be valued as a top-tier TE but his price within the overall draft market seems a bit aggressive.

It seems that drafters have deemed that the previous year’s TE1 should be valued as a top-30 pick regardless of the context surrounding his TE1 finish. LaPorta had an impressive season, but it was nowhere near what Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were doing in their elite seasons. LaPorta averaged 14.1 FPts/G last season. Meanwhile, Andrews and Kelce regularly cleared 17-plus FPts/G. From 2018-2022, the TE1 cleared 250 PPR points each season. LaPorta had 239.3. This was the “worst” TE1 season in six years but he is still being drafted at the 2-3 turn. LaPorta does not provide a significant advantage over players like Andrews, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid, all of who can be drafted 20-plus picks later.

Two key factors will prevent LaPorta from paying off at this cost. First, LaPorta’s season was also carried by falling on the right side of touchdown variance. He picked up 10 scores on just 86 receptions, making him a prime candidate for touchdown regression. Second, unlike Kelce and Andrews in their most dominant seasons, LaPorta is not the top option in his own offense. He is forced to compete with Amon-Ra St. Brown which drastically caps his ability to earn targets. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams are also expected to play bigger roles in the offense, making it even more difficult for LaPorta to bump his target volume.

Last season may have been close to LaPorta’s best possible outcome. His touchdown rate will likely fall and his role in the offense does not have much room to grow with St. Brown’s presence in Detroit. It is fine to draft LaPorta as an elite TE, but the 2-3 turn is a round too early. Opting for other high-end TEs who can be selected at least 20 picks later is a better idea.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 10.04, TE11

The case for Hockenson being overvalued: Hockenson will only be available for a handful of regular season fantasy matchups and the Vikings offense could take a step back.

The case against Hockenson being overvalued: Hockenson had a career year in 2023 and could provide elite production during the fantasy playoffs.

Verdict: Hockenson being drafted as a starting TE is absolutely ludicrous. Recent reports indicated that he is “ahead of schedule” in his return from an ACL and MCL tear. At this time, no concrete timeline has been provided. But based on a typical return from a multi-ligament knee injury (10 months from surgery), Hockenson would be available around Week 12. An optimistic expectation would make him available somewhere around Week 8 or 9. In the best-case scenario, drafters would have Hockenson available for a handful of games during the fantasy regular season. This is not ideal when he is valued as a starting (top-12) TE.

On top of this, there is no guarantee that Hockenson will provide the high-end production that we saw last season. ACL injuries have a history of limiting the effectiveness of players in their first season back, in turn reducing their fantasy impact. Aside from recovering from the injury, the Vikings offense will also prevent Hockenson from returning to his 2023 levels of fantasy production. The Vikings are transitioning from an offense led by Kirk Cousins to a duo of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy. These quarterbacks should be able to keep the offense afloat but this transition certainly hurts the fantasy outlook of all pass catchers in Minnesota.

All things considered, a handful of games with questionable effectiveness is not very appealing. When this player must be drafted as a starter or even a high-end TE2, it’s an easy fade in drafts.