It’s hard to believe that a player’s fantasy value can
change all that much following the completion of Week 3 of the preseason.
But if there was ever a week that altered the fantasy values of
a handful of players – this past week was it. While I’ll
go into more detail with each of these players in the PPR and non-PPR
sections of this article, let’s take a brief look at some
of the players who benefited the most from the injuries/cuts that
rocked the fantasy football world this past week:
– HC Eric Mangini’s favorite player to hate makes an
incredible jump up the Big Board after rookie RB Montario
Hardesty was lost for the season last week. As a result, last
year’s fantasy playoff darling enjoys a meteoric rise from my #42
RB and #111 overall in PPR to #31 and #72, respectively this week,
which should make him an attractive late-fourth or early-fifth round
pick in PPR. Mangini told Browns beat reporter Mary Kay Cabot of
the Cleveland Plain Dealer that he expects Harrison to “seize the
opportunity” to be the No. 1 man and “run with it”. That’s all good
and well, but I can’t bring myself to trust the coach when he had
little problem playing with Harrison’s mind all of last season (as
well as the minds of his fantasy owners). Many owners missed out
on his historic 286-yard rushing day on Week 15 last season because
Mangini thought Chris
Jennings was the better runner. Suffice it to say, he doesn’t
come without some red flags, so I can’t trust him as much as his
skill level says I should. Let’s also not forget Peyton
Hillis – who was already receiving heavy consideration for the
goal-line role or 2009 preseason sensation James
Davis. I’ve got a bad feeling the coach will make either Hillis
or Davis the 2010 version of Chris Jennings, so don’t draft Harrison
as anything more than a RB3.
– In a roster move that probably got swept under
the rug by most people, WR Jerheme
Urban was placed on the IR this past week. This news is significant
because Urban was supposed to be McCluster’s competition for touches
out of the slot. Now, the lightning bug out of Ole Miss should
see the field every time the Chiefs go three-wide. More use out
of the slot should mean more production in the passing game, which
may also affect the amount of use he gets out of the backfield
as HC Todd Haley is cognizant of not overusing the 5-8, 170-pounder.
As a result of all the increased work I expect him to get in the
passing game, I believe McCluster is now a solid 11th or 12th-round
value in both PPR and non-PPR. As I have it mapped out in my mind,
more work out of the slot should mean less work out of the backfield
for the rookie, which should come as good news for Jamaal
Charles’ owners. Since their games are somewhat similar, there
was a growing belief that McCluster would steal some fantasy value
from Charles, but in theory, that should no longer be the case.
– I’m still not sure I understand what the Broncos
are doing from a personnel standpoint, but one thing is for sure:
Gaffney’s stock has been on the rise all summer long. The latest
bump to his stock was the loss of Brandon
Stokley to IR, which subtracts a WR capable of catching 30-40
passes from the slot. I’ll admit looking back that my 40-catch
prediction for Stokley was probably too high, but the fact of
the matter is that when he is healthy, he is a solid veteran target
for QB Kyle
Orton. With Stokley now lost and rookie Demaryius
Thomas a complete question mark (as far as his healthy return),
the season is shaping up quite nicely for Gaffney and even Eddie
Royal. In my estimation, Gaffney is now a serviceable WR3
play in all 12-team leagues while Royal will probably be a good
spot starter in PPR formats.
– There’s more than meets the eye here.
Very few will question that Houshmandzadeh ever was a WR1, but
facts are facts: he caught 79 passes last season on a team that
couldn’t protect the QB. He obviously can still get open a little
bit, so let’s not quite call the veteran “washed up” just yet.
As is the case with most personnel moves – in this case Housh
signing with Baltimore – there are likely winners (Williams, QB
Joe
Flacco) and probable losers (Derrick
Mason, Todd
Heap). Since the time he dominated college football at USC,
we’ve all known Williams has a great deal of talent. Did his old
college coach – new HC Pete Carroll – come along just at the right
time? Considering Deion
Branch is always a poor bet to stay healthy and Deon
Butler is safely entrenched as the WR3 in Seattle right now
ahead of rookie Golden
Tate, it’s not out of the question that Williams finishes
second behind TE John
Carlson in receptions this season. It should go without saying
that adding a sure-handed WR like Housh only increases Flacco’s
value, but whose value does it hurt more? Here’s how I see it
– Anquan
Boldin is a good bet to miss some games every year; in those
games, Houshmandzadeh will be asked to fill in. Despite being
a bit older, Mason is a better receiver than Houshmandzadeh and
will maintain his starting role. While I think both Mason and
Boldin give up a few catches, I believe the biggest loser here
is Heap. The Ravens’ starting TE is no longer a vertical threat
and essentially performs the same functions Houshmandzadeh does
in the short passing game, which makes me wonder if Heap goes
back to his blocking role of 2008.
As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value"
in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but
for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left
on the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that
I present my "Big Board" in your attempt to earn both
the respect and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2010.
Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each
of my readers about a couple of key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many
other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players
relies heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy
point totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called
"experts" get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't
get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the
end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not
about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1
gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during
the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up
7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my board
if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position
I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the
point totals or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I
will push a player down my board – despite a higher average
or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be
less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule
appears treacherous. No, I don't claim to see the future,
but history tells us that defenses like the Jets, Packers and
Steelers (this year anyway) will end more fantasy championship
dreams than they help.
Note: As I did
last week, I’ve submitted a pair of 175-player Big Boards
for your review, with no defenses or kickers mixed in. Again,
I will let you – the fantasy owner – decide at what
point you should select your kicker and defense, although I don’t
mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th round of a 16-round
draft when I feel really good about the team I have drafted to
that point and the schedule suggests there is a team that is in
line to have an incredible year on defense. (This year, that team
is the Niners, in my opinion.) The entire color-coding system
from my PSAs to the Big Boards is briefly explained below and
doubles as an easy reference tool for the entire season and not
just Weeks 14-16.
Key:
OR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
AVG – Fantasy points/game
TOT – Total fantasy points scored
V – Volatility
(^) - Projection represents
the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling
the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling
the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents
the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.
Color coding – Green (good
matchup), red (bad matchup), black (bye week) and no color qualifies
as a neutral matchup.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players:
General impressions: As much as
I want to, I can’t bring myself to move Gore ahead of Rice
and Peterson. With only one defense on the schedule (Green Bay,
Week 13) that rates as an above-average run-stopping unit, the
table is set for Gore to have career best numbers across the board.
If you are looking for a potential good sign, the one season Gore
stayed healthy and gave his owners over 2,000 total yards was
2006 – the last time San Francisco faced both the NFC and
AFC West. For those owners who don’t mind taking a chance
with Gore’s injury history, they have the chance to land
the potential No. 1 overall RB in fantasy this season with the
No. 5 or No. 6 overall pick.
Over the past week, I have fielded several questions from readers
regarding Steven Jackson. Without getting too long-winded, his
fantasy situation isn’t much different from Gore’s,
albeit with a much less talented supporting cast. Yes, Jackson
has a checkered durability record just like Gore, but understand
that Jackson showed a great deal of pain tolerance last season
playing with his back injury which eventually required surgery.
At 244 pounds and carrying just five-percent body fat, he truly
is a physical marvel. If Sam Bradford represents even the slightest
upgrade to the passing attack and the defense is just a bit improved
over last season, Jackson becomes a 2,000-total yard back with
an ability to score 10 times. I’m not suggesting it will
happen, just that it could.
Let’s talk drafting strategy for a second: if you play
in a 12-team league (especially in those where all TDs count for
six fantasy points), do yourself and your fellow owners a big
favor and make sure that the Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or
Maurice Jones-Drew owner doesn’t have a chance at landing
one of the top three QBs. In particular, I’m talking about
Peyton Manning, who can sometimes be had at the end of the second
round. There aren’t many bad feelings when it comes to fantasy
football, but one of them is the weekend where you have to face
a combo that has the potential to be the best QB and RB in fantasy.
When you really have an owner that knows what he/she is doing
at the top of the draft when Manning falls into his/her lap, then
the third-round pick will be a legit WR1 candidate (a Colston/Jennings
type), the fourth will be a Gates/Finley type and the fifth will
either be another stud WR (Bowe?) or solid RB2 (Moreno/Stewart).
If you are drafting at the top, make sure you are “that
guy” and if you are not, make sure you aren’t one
of the owners contributing to “that guy’s” checkbook.
Speaking of drafting strategy, I’ve seen an approach this
season I’m not sure I have ever seen (or at least ever noticed)
before – owners landing multiple Tier 1 or Tier 2 TEs. Part
of that is due to the number of capable TEs we now have in fantasy,
but I was shocked to discover last week that I have Finley projected
for the same amount of fantasy points as Reggie Wayne! (And no,
I’m not backing off that prediction either.) Considering
WR has been and will continue to be a deeper position in fantasy
than TE, a two-round gap between the go-to players on these passing
offenses is too much. As always, I’m aware that my projections
are not foolproof, but it makes all the sense in the world to
me to grab Finley in the fourth and come back with someone like
Gates or Davis (who I have in Greg Jennings territory) in the
fifth or Gonzalez (who I have on par with Ochocinco) in the sixth
as your flex player. This strategy achieves multiple objectives:
1) it cuts down the elite TE pool quickly and may force owners
to reach at the position, 2) it provides solid production from
a flex spot that usually occupies either a committee RB or lower-end
WR2, 3) ensures solid coverage from the position during a bye
week and 4) gives owners a unique trade chip at a position where
someone may be forced to start the unpredictable John Carlson
or the limited (at least early in the season) Owen Daniels. Another
potential TE1, Kellen Winslow, has never been a model of health
either.
Welker’s
admission to the Boston Globe this past week that his surgically-repaired
knee “doesn’t feel the same” shouldn’t
have come as a great shock to anyone, which is one reason I wasn’t
willing to go any higher than #21 among receivers in PPR. The
mere fact that he has been able to take the field and even come
close to resembling his old self should be commended. But in just
about every draft I’ve been involved in, he has been selected
as a fantasy team’s top WR. This means owners are expecting
(not hoping) that he returns to his 100-catch ways right away.
While recoveries from ACL surgeries are happening quicker than
ever, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Welker regains enough
trust in his knee to make the same cuts that made him a nightmare
cover for defenses at any point this season.
We began with Gore above, so it is only appropriate that we end
with his backup. If you are thinking I am talking about Brian
Westbrook, I am not. Anthony Dixon led the NFL in rushing during
the preseason, but it is what HC Mike Singletary told CSN
Bay Area this past weekend that should have the rookie on
your radar. "When you have a guy like that, there's going
to be a role," Singletary said. "What it is, right now,
it will define itself. But when you have a guy who has talent
like that, you'll find a role." Maybe Gore stays healthy
all season long, but he’s missed 1-2 games in four of the
five seasons he has been in the league. Since just about everybody
in your league should know that Gore has a history of missing
time, Dixon represents a semi-valuable trade chip that can be
acquired in the late rounds. And in the event that Gore is actually
sidelined for a longer amount of time, Dixon would instantly become
a top-20 fantasy RB.
My opinion of Foster continues to grow week after week. Of course,
some of it has to do with what he did in the preseason and some
of it has to do with what his coach has said about him (“Arian’s
becoming a hell of a football player,”). But as is usually
the case in fantasy, much of the buzz Foster is generating has
to do with his situation, which has seen one hot-shot rookie (Ben
Tate) lost for the season and his veteran teammate (Steve Slaton)
sidelined with turf toe – an injury that tends to linger.
Slaton, as of September 4, is expected to suit up for the season
opener, but there is next-to-no chance that he will be useful
for fantasy purposes in any way before the Texans’ Week
7 bye. Therefore, turf toe should be a big reason why Foster could
push 40 receptions. Granted, the catches don’t count in
non-PPR, but the extra yards he’ll get as a result of playing
about 85-90% of the snaps will only lead to more yards and maybe
another score or two. I have predicted a monster season for him
now, including 10 TDs in my 15-game projection. As long as he
can hold up all season long, he should easily match – if
not surpass – his current ADP of 4.03.
In addition to Foster, allow me to become one of the drivers
for the Dwayne Bowe bandwagon. Attending Larry Fitzgerald’s
summer camp opened my eyes in terms of how ready he is to put
last year’s disappointing season by him. It also gave HC
Todd Haley the confidence he needed in Bowe, calling the WR “one
of our most dependable players”. Fantasy owners should be
able to say the same thing about him regarding their team at the
end of this season as well. I think that Bowe is primed for his
best year yet, so it would not surprise me to see him climb into
the top 5-8 WRs when all is said and done. I had him projected
for WR1 numbers before, but the loss of Urban to IR gave Bowe’s
numbers another boost (along with Chambers and McCluster’s),
meaning a 90-100 catch season is not out of reach.
I started out the preseason with low expectations for Kolb as
the Eagles were suggesting they would use Michael Vick more this
year since he was recapturing some of his old magic. As the preseason
moved on, I allowed myself to think about Kolb’s offensive
weapons, thereby enabling him to crawl up the Big Board. So, after
a month of seeing his stock peak and valley, I will settle on
him as the last starting QB in 12-team leagues. In fact, if you
have already drafted and he is your starting QB, do your best
to move him for someone like Rivers or Flacco. The sad thing is
that in fantasy, sometimes we have to separate what we see (a
more accurate QB than McNabb who I believe as a little Aaron Rodgers
in him) from what is really happening (Vick getting snaps in the
red zone for a team that is perennially bad inside the 20).
Much as I adjusted the numbers for Bowe, Chambers and McCluster
above following the roster move that put Urban on IR, the same
had to be done when Brandon Stokley landed on IR in Denver. Unfortunately,
the Broncos’ fantasy picture is a mess at WR, with only
Gaffney being assured of much for fantasy purposes. Fortunately
for his bottom line, I believe the loss of Stokley will drive
his non-PPR stock into WR3, if not low-end WR2 territory. Demaryius
Thomas won’t be taking important snaps anytime soon after
missing virtually the entire preseason. Eric Decker and Eddie
Royal may be worth spot starts from time to time, but the early
part of the season should serve as the on-ramp to Gaffney’s
drive for a potential career year.
We’ll cap off this portion of the article by talking a
bit about John Carlson, who will undoubtedly become Matt Hasselbeck’s
top target in the passing game. Yes, the West Coast version of
Mike Williams has suddenly become fantasy relevant, but anyone
expected TJ Houshmandzadeh numbers from Williams or Deion Branch
are kidding themselves. Seattle’s skill level on offense
is now on par with the Rams’ (if not worse), which will
probably make Carlson’s fantasy contributions inconsistent
this season. But if the acquisition of a free agent TE (Chris
Baker) and drafting of another (Anthony McCoy) – players
whose best asset is blocking – along with the release of
Houshmandzadeh doesn’t make Carlson the featured receiver
in this offense, I don’t know what will.
Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks
Defense/Special
Teams |
Rk |
D/ST |
FPts |
PA |
Sk |
TO |
TD |
Bon |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
1 |
49ers DST |
181 |
180 |
43 |
58 |
30 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
Steelers DST |
176 |
185 |
50 |
54 |
30 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
Packers DST |
160 |
265 |
43 |
60 |
36 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
Bengals DST |
154 |
238 |
40 |
58 |
30 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
Saints D/ST |
150 |
297 |
36 |
72 |
30 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
Jets D/ST |
149 |
200 |
42 |
48 |
12 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7 |
Vikings DST |
145 |
299 |
48 |
56 |
30 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
Eagles DST |
143 |
293 |
38 |
56 |
30 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
Raiders DST |
139 |
233 |
36 |
58 |
12 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
Colts D/ST |
138 |
258 |
36 |
56 |
24 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Cowboys DST |
129 |
251 |
42 |
44 |
18 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
Dolphins DST |
129 |
256 |
34 |
54 |
18 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13 |
Ravens DST |
129 |
298 |
40 |
50 |
24 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
Giants DST |
126 |
296 |
44 |
44 |
24 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
Bears DST |
117 |
322 |
35 |
52 |
24 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
Redskins DST |
103 |
282 |
30 |
38 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? E-mail me.
|