Change is inevitable. As much as fantasy owners hate this little
bit of wisdom, it takes only a missed tackle or blown assignment
in some cases to drastically alter a player’s value. Over
the long term, however, fantasy value is usually established by
consistency and, in the case of the elite players, consistent greatness.
The reason I decided to briefly discuss change this week is because
you will see a great deal of it below. In just one week, my opinion
on a number of players has changed, almost to the point where one
might question how it is possible that some players’ values
could be so volatile. Granted, some of it has to do with the action
I’ve taken in during the third game of the preseason –
the now-famous “dress rehearsal” week – but much
of the change on the newest version of the boards has to do with
a tidbit of new information in some cases or another review of the
schedule in other cases.
As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value"
in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but
for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on
the board. And it is with both need and value in mind that I present
my "Big Board" in your attempt to earn both the respect
and envy of your fellow fantasy leaguers in 2010.
Before I get to the boards, though, I would like to remind each
of my readers about a couple of key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other
draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies
heavily on consistency and schedule, not on overall fantasy point
totals. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts"
get hamstrung by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all
my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as
the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's
about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances
along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly
decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither
should you.
2) I will push a player down my board if
feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide
below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals
or averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player
down my board – despite a higher average or overall point
total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.
No, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that defenses
like the Jets, Packers and Steelers (this year anyway) will end
more fantasy championship dreams than they help.
Note: I’ve
expanded both Big Boards to 175 players this year, with no defenses
or kickers mixed in. Again, I will let you – the fantasy owner
– decide at what point you should select your kicker and defense,
although I don’t mind grabbing my defense in the 12th or 13th
round of a 16-round draft when I feel really good about the team
I have drafted to that point and the schedule suggests there is
a team that is in line to have an incredible year on defense. (This
year, that team is the Niners, in my opinion.) One major change
from last year is that I have carried over the entire color-coding
system from my PSAs to the Big Boards in order to give you an easy
reference tool for the entire season and not just Weeks 14-16.
Key:
OR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
AVG – Fantasy points/game
TOT – Total fantasy points scored
V – Volatility
(^) - Projection represents the
player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling
the player short; he has some upside.
(-)
- Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents
the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players:
Top 10: Late last week, there was
an erroneous report about the health of Jones-Drew. Supposedly,
he needed to undergo arthroscopic surgery to correct a secretive
“minor knee injury”. The story was quickly denied
by multiple sources and a collective sigh was heard by all MJD
owners. I, for one, am not concerned with the soreness he is experiencing
and would still be thrilled to select him No. 1 overall. As much
as I like high ceilings and great potential in my fantasy players,
there is something to be said about the player that is probably
the most “safe” RB pick in fantasy this year. With
all of that said, I can make a strong case for any of the first
four backs going No. 1 overall and I can also argue why each player
should be No. 4 as well.
My first big question comes at the 5-6 spot. First off, if I
could trust Gore to stay healthy, he would be my second- or third-ranked
RB (and obviously, the second- or third-ranked player overall).
Since that is a call I don’t want to make at this point,
it becomes a question of whether I should select a RB1 who may
give 12-14 games or the player I feel will have the best fantasy
season by a QB since Tom Brady in 2007.
Some in the fantasy community have said Green Bay has a more
difficult schedule this year than last, which makes Rodgers a
bad investment as the first QB selected in fantasy drafts. Without
a doubt, the Packers have some difficult games, but their offense
is scary good. Besides the fact the Packers can line up four legitimate
NFL receivers on any passing play, they also have one of the biggest
matchup nightmares at TE in Finley. Considering Rodgers’
accuracy and running ability along with HC Mike McCarthy’s
reputation for maximizing the talent he has at QB, there is minimal
downside to selecting Rodgers. I’m a big believer that championship
fantasy teams start with a solid RB1, so I’ll go Gore for
now. But it would not surprise me if I opted for Rodgers, if I
am find myself in that situation in the next week or two.
11-20: The one change in this group
was at the bottom, where I moved Wayne ahead of Colston. Basically,
this shift comes down to the comfort level I have with Wayne.
In the Colts’ offense, Wayne is the definite WR1 whereas
the same cannot always be said about Colston in New Orleans. Obviously,
I’m splitting hairs here; a fantasy owner will be fortunate
to land either player and cannot really go wrong with either option.
Otherwise, the same ten players that found themselves in this
range last week held steady.
21-50: Loyal readers may recall
that I have been high on Foster for some time and last weekend
only solidified my opinion of him. With Slaton suffering a turf
toe injury in that same game and rookie Ben Tate already out for
the year, fantasy owners have a rare opportunity to see a backfield
that could have easily been a committee this season turn into
a possible feature-back situation even before the season starts.
If/when Slaton can get back to full health, I still expect him
to play a role on passing downs, but HC Gary Kubiak is sold on
Foster and you should be too. I’m willing to bet most fantasy
sites are just now warming up to Foster as low-end RB2. I’m
telling you that I think he can be a legit RB1 this season and
compile fantasy totals similar to those posted by Slaton in 2008.
I will be targeting him in the third round in each of my 12-team
PPR drafts this week and next.
Among my biggest droppers this week is Moreno. Anyone who has
been reading my articles over the past year or so knows I have
a lot of respect for the University of Georgia alum. However,
his situation seems to get worse by the week, especially considering
he has seen next to no work in practice or preseason games. At
this point, it is questionable if he will be able to play Week
1. Assuming he can, will he get to run behind a healthy and cohesive
offensive line, in particular LT Ryan Clady? While the Denver
Post is suggesting that Clady will return to practice this week,
there is also the issue of how defenses will crowd the line of
scrimmage this year to stop the run now that Brandon Marshall
no longer plays for the Broncos. Furthermore, Buckhalter is probably
a good bet to collect at least 30% of the workload and who knows
if HC Josh McDaniels sees LenDale White as a goal-line vulture.
When all of those possible question marks come attached to a player
– even one as good as Moreno – it is probably best
to leave him to another owner unless you can snag him as a RB3.
I feel like I’m really pushing my limits as a fantasy “expert”
by giving such a low ranking to Fitzgerald. Believe me, it’s
nothing personal as he is one of the top 2-3 actual receivers
in the game today. It’s more that I have no faith in Derek
Anderson to revisit 2007 and the team apparently has no faith
in Leinart because they sure have played like it this preseason.
Perhaps when I get a chance later in the week – and before
I submit my final Big Board next week – to really break
down the Cardinals’ Week 3 preseason game vs. Chicago, I
will feel differently. Until that time, however, I don’t
want Fitzgerald as anything more than a WR2 in 12-team leagues.
My other featured “dropper of the week” is Greene.
I’m not one to say “I told you so”, but if this
preseason has done anything, it has opened people’s eyes
to the fact that Tomlinson still has some of his trademark burst
left. Combine that with my unshakeable belief that Greene will
miss some time this season and the fact that he will contribute
next to nothing in the passing game and we have the recipe for
a player who is being overdrafted by at least one round.
The last player I’ll talk about in this group is Flacco.
I feel pretty comfortable with seven QBs this season as fantasy
QB1s and the Ravens’ QB is the last of that bunch. The first
month of the season doesn’t figure to be a pleasant ride
(three of the first four games are on the road vs. the Jets, Bengals
and Steelers), but Flacco now has the weapons necessary to overcome
all but the toughest matchups and is healthier now than he was
at any point during his second-half fade last season. His schedule
lightens up after the first few weeks, making him an interesting
alternative to the big-ticket QB that owners will need to spend
a higher pick on, players such as Manning, Brees or Rodgers.
51-100: Long too pricey for my
tastes over the years, I am coming to find that Gonzalez is a
bargain this summer. Due in large part to his age and the influx
of young high-ceiling talent at his position, I’ve seen
Gonzalez regularly fall into the seventh or eighth round of 12-team
drafts. Since Gonzalez has been a fourth- or fifth-round fixture
for what seems like his entire career, this season presents an
excellent opportunity to watch half of your league spend fourth-
and fifth-round picks on players like Gates and Finley while you
grab a player who can match their production just about every
week. If he is available in the sixth round of my money-league
PPR drafts, he is as good as gone when my pick comes around.
Harvin climbs back into the part of the Big Board where he belongs
– one of the last WR2s available. Since last week’s
article, Harvin’s medical team announced they now believe
they have uncovered the primary cause of his migraines. If they
are right – and Harvin appears to be quite confident they
are – then he is in great shape to take over where the injured
Sidney Rice left off last season. If he is able to make it through
an entire 16-game schedule this season, his numbers could easily
take a substantial leap from his impressive 60-catch rookie season.
I’m a bit torn on Spiller. As impressive as his final numbers
were in Preseason Week 3 vs. the Bengals, he actually did nothing
but lose a lot of yardage during the first quarter when Cincinnati’s
full complement of starters were still in the game. It wasn’t
until after some key Bengal defenders left the field that the
rookie did his damage. Still, his talent is undeniable, even if
he bounces everything outside. But will HC Chan Gailey be swayed
by the numbers or will he stick to the original plan of using
Spiller to complement Fred Jackson?
With Greg Jennings sidelined last week, Driver received the chance
to show a national audience that he is fully recovered from offseason
knee surgeries. He did that and more in my mind vs. the Colts,
allowing him to take a 30-player jump up the rankings into fantasy
WR3 territory. It certainly appeared to me in that game he is
healthy and that his pre-surgery knees were probably the main
culprit of his late-season fade last season.
101-175: I’ll spend the rest
of my PPR time talking about three players who are just now generating
the kind of buzz they should be generating – Houston’s
Jacoby Jones, Tampa Bay’s Kareem Huggins and St. Louis’
Danny Amendola. For as long as he has been a Texan, Jones has
teased with his talent but lacked the concentration necessary
to take the next step. I have him ranked somewhat conservatively
as the last WR4, but he could easily surpass that if he is ready
for a bigger role. With Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels on his
team, he will almost always been going up against single coverage.
Suffice it to say that I don’t believe most defenses have
a CB capable of matching up one-on-one with a focused Jones athletically.
To the surprise of many, Huggins made his first Big Board appearance
last week. Just in case some of you were wondering, he’s
not going away. The Bucs signed Derrick Ward last season with
the idea he would share the load with either Cadillac Williams
or Earnest Graham; Huggins is the player who took less than one
offseason to overtake Ward and make him expendable.
There’s a pretty good chance that many fantasy owners have no
clue who Amendola is. Maybe a few folks were introduced to him
last week when rookie QB Sam
Bradford targeted him on just about every other pass play.
Amendola, who played his college ball in Texas Tech’s spread offense,
is the most likely replacement for the injured Donnie
Avery. Given the fact that Amendola was already going to likely
be the slot WR prior to Avery’s injury, the fact that he will
in all likelihood be a three-down player now makes him an intriguing
option in the final rounds of deep leagues. Certainly, the Rams
figure to struggle scoring points again this season, but a 60-catch
season is not out of the question for the sure-handed receiver
– a total that plays well in just about every PPR league.
Top 10: The only change of note is
the reversal of Johnson and Jones-Drew atop the board. While I still
believe Johnson will miss a game or more this season, it’s too hard
for me to ignore what he can do once he gets into the second half
of his schedule. When you remove the point advantage I feel MJD
has over Johnson in PPR because he is projected to catch more passes,
then Johnson becomes the player of choice. Again, it bears repeating
that so much of this is hair-splitting amongst the first four backs,
so no one should raise an eyebrow when it comes to what order you
put them in this season.
11-20: While there was minor shuffling
throughout, there is very little change from last week here.
21-50: One of the biggest fallers
in this group was Wells, who is a bit too much like Adrian Peterson
for the Cardinals’ tastes. According to the team’s
website, for all the people who are looking for the reason why
Hightower remains Arizona’s starter need look no further
than his fumbling woes. What many of us saw last season –
that Wells is the superior runner to Hightower – will likely
be the case again this season, Wells’ owners will probably
need to be patient with him in order to prove he will not fumble
like he did four times in just 188 touches in 2009 and once more
against the Bears in preseason action last weekend.
The other player I’ll point out this week is McCoy, who
goes from mid-range RB2 in PPR to a decent flex option in non-PPR.
With the Eagles’ apparent aversion to consistently running
the ball, McCoy makes for a pretty big hit-or-miss player this
season in non-PPR. Factor in that Philadelphia is turning to Michael
Vick in the red zone during the preseason and the team’s
usage of Mike Bell as well as Leonard Weaver. With all that hanging
over McCoy, it wouldn’t be all that shocking if 2-3 Eagles
players had more rushing scores at the end of the year than McCoy.
51-100: At the top of this group
is a collection of QBs who I just cannot find it in my heart to
trust in 2010 – Rivers, Cutler and Kolb. Rivers has proven
himself over the years and probably does not deserve to be thrown
in with the other two QBs, but I worry about his ability to produce
week in and week out without Vincent Jackson. Furthermore, I can’t
see how fill-in LT Brandyn Dombrowski manages to keep Rivers upright
all season long although the 6-5, 323-pounder has done a fine
job in exhibition play.
As for Cutler, the preseason has already shown what most of the
fantasy community feared – the Bears are forcing a bad pass-blocking
line to run OC Mike Martz’s downfield passing attack. While
it worked well for “The Greatest Show on Turf” ten
years ago, part of the reason Martz’s other stays have been
short is because he hasn’t been able to bring Orlando Pace
and Fred Miller – two OTs in their prime during the Rams’
Super Bowl runs – with him at each stop. Cutler will be
a productive fantasy QB in leagues that don’t penalize interceptions
too harshly, but what scares me the most about him is the punishment
he will take each week as well as a Week 16 showdown against the
Jets in Soldier Field. If the weather doesn’t slow down
the passing game in that contest, there’s a pretty good
chance the opponent will.
Moving on to Kolb, the supporting cast and scheme are set up
quite nicely for him to thrive. However, the Eagles’ insistence
on pushing Vick onto the field – especially in the red zone
– may lead to a lot of disappointed Kolb owners. Without
Vick around, Kolb could enjoy a season similar to the one Rodgers
had in his first season as a starter, but with Vick stealing 5-10
potentially important snaps each game, it becomes more difficult
to think of Kolb as an every-week starter.
Tomlinson makes for an interesting study this season. As I have
stated on occasion throughout the summer (on radio or in print),
moving from one of the worst run-blocking lines in the league
to one of the best makes a huge difference. But will fantasy owners
find themselves saying, “it’s just the preseason”
in regards to LT’s rebirth? Or will they look at him as
a player who will take on the role Leon Washington did last season
when Greene is healthy and as a short-term feature back when he
is not? I’d be happy to land LT as my RB3 in 12-team leagues,
although I’d prefer him as a RB4.
101-175: If my experience is like
anyone else’s, Favre is the source of some good debate in
each draft. At this point, we know how Favre has proven to us
time and again that he can overcome hurdle after hurdle. However,
I’m not going to taking a ride on his train this season.
While I’m sure many people are viewing him as a low-end
fantasy QB1 with hopes he can give them one more season like 2009,
the facts are that Minnesota is more like a team destined to miss
the playoffs than win a Super Bowl right now. Favre will likely
be favoring his ankle all season (that is when defenses aren’t
gunning for it), Sidney Rice will miss roughly half the season,
Harvin will be a game-to-game decision just about every week and
Berrian will likely continue to be inconsistent at best. The offensive
line also doesn’t seem near as willing to run-block as they
used to be, all of which means the team will hope Favre can save
the day. That’s a tall order for any signal-caller and it’s
not something I want in my starting fantasy QB, especially one
that turns 41 during the season.
Laurence Maroney falls completely off the Big Board this week.
As we all know by now, the Patriots’ backfield is just a
headache for fantasy owners, so the chances that Maroney will
emerge from HC Bill Belichick’s doghouse to be a fantasy
asset at some point of this season are pretty good. With that
said, very few fantasy titles have been won trying to read the
mind of Belichick. Still, as potent as the New England running
game is year after year, someone needs to be on this list and
Taylor gets the honors as the last RB4 off the board. The most
productive rusher from this backfield could just as easily be
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but once again, I’d hate to count
on any Patriots RB in any given week.
| Kickers |
| Rk |
Pos |
Player |
FPts |
XP |
FG |
| 1 |
K |
Stephen Gostkowski |
135 |
42 |
31 |
| 2 |
K |
Mason Crosby |
133 |
46 |
29 |
| 3 |
K |
David Akers |
129 |
39 |
30 |
| 4 |
K |
Nate Kaeding |
129 |
39 |
30 |
| 5 |
K |
Lawrence Tynes |
126 |
39 |
29 |
| 6 |
K |
Ryan Longwell |
125 |
44 |
27 |
| 7 |
K |
Shayne Graham |
121 |
46 |
25 |
| 8 |
K |
David Buehler |
119 |
47 |
24 |
| 9 |
K |
Matt Bryant |
118 |
40 |
26 |
| 10 |
K |
Rob Bironas |
118 |
34 |
28 |
| 11 |
K |
Nick Folk |
117 |
36 |
27 |
| 12 |
K |
Jeff Reed |
117 |
39 |
26 |
| 13 |
K |
Garrett Hartley |
115 |
46 |
23 |
| 14 |
K |
Robbie Gould |
114 |
39 |
25 |
| 15 |
K |
Neil Rackers/Kris Brown |
114 |
36 |
26 |
| 16 |
K |
Jay Feely |
113 |
38 |
25 |
|
Key:
FPts – Total fantasy points scored
PA – Actual points allowed
Sk – Sacks
TD – Defensive/special teams touchdowns
Bon – Total bonus for holding opponent under point benchmarks
| Defense/Special
Teams |
| Rk |
D/ST |
FPts |
PA |
Sk |
TO |
TD |
Bon |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| 1 |
49ers DST |
181 |
180 |
43 |
58 |
30 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
Steelers DST |
176 |
185 |
50 |
54 |
30 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
Packers DST |
160 |
265 |
43 |
60 |
36 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
Bengals DST |
154 |
238 |
40 |
58 |
30 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
Saints D/ST |
150 |
297 |
36 |
72 |
30 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
Jets D/ST |
149 |
200 |
42 |
48 |
12 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
Vikings DST |
145 |
299 |
48 |
56 |
30 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
Eagles DST |
143 |
293 |
38 |
56 |
30 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
Raiders DST |
139 |
233 |
36 |
58 |
12 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
Colts D/ST |
138 |
258 |
36 |
56 |
24 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
Cowboys DST |
129 |
251 |
42 |
44 |
18 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
Dolphins DST |
129 |
256 |
34 |
54 |
18 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
Ravens DST |
129 |
298 |
40 |
50 |
24 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
Giants DST |
126 |
296 |
44 |
44 |
24 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
Bears DST |
117 |
322 |
35 |
52 |
24 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
Redskins DST |
103 |
282 |
30 |
38 |
18 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? E-mail me.
|
