Wildcard Weekend
1/6/11
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in
cruising to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your
teams' inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason
or just aren't ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff
fantasy football may be just the thing you need to end this season
right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
After getting my first taste of owning multiple teams in playoff
leagues last year (and making a bit of money from it, I’m
expanding my horizons this time around. In addition to owning
one NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues
with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks
will be to help each of you through your decision-making process
as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click
on this link. However, much of the content immediately below
is included on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide
here should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will
perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs,
two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points
based on their on-field performance during their game, and if
your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that
player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point
modifier to his score.
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championships for 3x his points, and if the Saints
win again, you can carry him into the Super Bowl and earn 4x his
points. In addition, a user can select a player in the Wild Card
round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round.
In this case, the user would not earn any points for the Wild
Card round, but would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the
Divisional round, since the player was on the team’s roster
for 2 weekly scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would
also apply as long as that player’s team continued in the
NFL Playoffs.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
|
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here
than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll talk about later;
2) all field goals are worth three points, which means we are
more concerned about volume of field goals than distance; 3) this
is non-PPR scoring, which obviously favors the big-play threats;
and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown and could be worth as much
as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this week and that team
ends up winning the Super Bowl.
Given the bonus point modifier mentioned above, I could understand
an owner making the decision to pass on selecting a defense this
week and electing to get twice as many points from a defense such
as the Steelers in the Divisional Round. (I’m not saying
I would do that, just suggesting that it is a strategy to consider.)
Here are the most worthy candidates by position:
QBs
Michael
Vick/Aaron
Rodgers/ /Peyton
Manning/Drew
Brees/ /Matt
Cassel/Joe
Flacco/ /Mark
Sanchez/Matt
Hasselbeck/Charlie
Whitehurst
On bye: Tom
Brady/ Ben
Roethlisberger/Matt
Ryan/Jay
Cutler
RBs
Jamaal
Charles/LeSean
McCoy/Ray
Rice/LaDainian
Tomlinson/Joseph
Addai/Reggie
Bush/Julius
Jones/Thomas
Jones/Brandon
Jackson/Marshawn
Lynch/Shonn
Greene
On bye: Rashard
Mendenhall/Michael
Turner/Matt
Forte/BenJarvus
Green-Ellis/Danny
Woodhead
WRs
Dwayne
Bowe/Greg
Jennings/DeSean
Jackson/Reggie
Wayne/Jeremy
Maclin/Marques
Colston/Santonio
Holmes/Braylon
Edwards/Pierre
Garcon/Lance
Moore/Derrick
Mason/Anquan
Boldin/James
Jones/Robert
Meachem/Mike
Williams/Ben
Obomanu/Donald
Driver/Blair
White
On bye: Roddy
White/Mike
Wallace/Wes
Welker/Johnny
Knox/Deion
Branch/Hines
Ward/Earl
Bennett/Devin
Hester
TEs
Jacob
Tamme/Todd
Heap/Dustin
Keller/Brent
Celek/Jimmy
Graham/Tony
Moeaki/Jeremy
Shockey
On bye: Aaron
Hernandez/Rob
Gronkowski/Tony
Gonzalez/Greg
Olsen/Heath
Miller
Ks
David
Akers/Nick
Folk/Adam
Vinatieri/Garrett
Hartley/Billy
Cundiff/Mason
Crosby/Ryan
Succop/Olindo
Mare
On bye: Shayne
Graham/Shaun
Suisham/Matt
Bryant/Robbie
Gould
D/ST
Packers/Jets/Ravens/Chiefs/Saints/Eagles/Seahawks/Colts
On bye: Steelers/Bears/Patriots/Falcons
Let’s get to my picks and my rationale for each position:
QB: Rodgers. With all the productive
QBs playing this week, there’s no reason to wait on a bye-week
QB (thereby eliminating Brady, Roethlisberger, Cutler and Ryan).
And given the offenses of four other teams (Cassel, Flacco, Sanchez,
Hasselbeck or Whitehurst), the choice comes down to Vick, Rodgers,
Manning and Brees. While the Eagles “bye” week in
Week 17 was needed by several members of the offense, the truth
is that Philly has played little more than one good quarter of
offensive football over the last four games. Vick is needlessly
putting the entire offense on his shoulders and taking too much
punishment. Zone-blitz defenses like the Packers are the best
in defending Vick because they don’t hesitate to pressure
the quarterback with the added benefit of always having their
eye on him should he leave the pocket; Green Bay has the added
benefit of having played against him already. With the success
teams have enjoyed blitzing Vick of late, look for CB Charles
Woodson to notch a sack or two. If Manning still had Austin Collie
available, I’d be tempted to go with him, but with the Jets
and their two top CBs coming to town, I don’t expect a repeat
of Manning’s AFC Championship Game last year.
Therefore, it comes down to Brees and Rodgers for me. I believe
Green Bay can go to Philadelphia and win, but New Orleans is a
much better bet to advance past Seattle. With that said, New Orleans
may enter this weekend with at least eight players carrying questionable
tags, including Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Shockey
(Chris Ivory was placed on IR Tuesday and Pierre Thomas followed
suit on Wednesday). That’s enough reason to downgrade Brees
just enough that I will take the chance that Rodgers’ Packers
will upset the Eagles on the road. Despite Philadelphia’s
reputation on defense, the secondary is beat up to the point where
an elite QB should have his way with them. And with the depth
of WR talent at Rodgers’ disposal, I will take him and expect
HC Mike McCarthy to spend a great deal of the game exploiting
the secondary (especially CB Dimitri Patterson) with spread formations
as often as possible.
RB: Rice and Charles. Once again,
let’s quickly eliminate the players that deserve next to
no consideration (of course, let’s discard Turner, Forte,
Green-Ellis, Woodhead and Mendenhall this week due to their byes.
It should be noted, however, I would give strong consideration
to playing the “Law Firm” this week and believe his
2x production would cover my zero this week and pay off for me
with 3x in the AFC Championship and 4x in the Super Bowl) . Next,
let’s remove Tomlinson, Addai, Bush, Julius and Thomas Jones,
Jackson and Lynch. LT hasn’t posted a strong non-PPR game
in months and figures to lose more than half of the touches in
the Jets’ backfield to Greene, Addai is still coming back
from injury and facing a stout run defense, Bush and Julius Jones
can’t be counted on to play much and/or stay healthy, Jackson
is in a three-headed RBBC and Lynch is running behind an awful
o-line.
After weeding out the backs above, the choice becomes two of
following four RBs: Charles, McCoy, Rice and Greene. HC Rex Ryan
suggested that Greene’s workload would increase in the postseason
(much like it did last season) and that he would be used as a
‘battering ram”. While that may sound great in theory,
LT isn’t just going to completely fade from the playoff
picture like Thomas Jones did last season and given Greene’s
lack of usage in the passing game, he becomes a non-factor very
quickly if Indy jumps ahead quick or can continue its run-stuffing
ways. Also consider the notion that the Jets may also be a one-and-out
team and it is just not worth the risk this week.
As far as McCoy is concerned, it’s hard to feel giddy about
a RB who often gets vultured in the red zone by his own QB. Four
of his nine scores this year came in the first week of the season
and now he faces a Packers’ defense that has surrendered
five TDs to the RB position all season long. Despite his 5.2 YPC
average, McCoy will get bumped by two similar RBs who have seen
a steadier workload recently and have a better chance at scoring.
In Rice, I will be selecting a back that has seen his carries
increase recently. Although I admit Willis McGahee is the goal-line
vulture of all goal-line vultures, Rice is every bit the all-around
threat McCoy is (with more touches). Plus, there’s no guarantee
McGahee will replace him inside the five, as both RBs have three
scores from five yards in or less. As for Charles, will Baltimore
be just the second defense this season to hold him under 4.0 YPC?
Perhaps, but I bet if HC Todd Haley is going to see his Chiefs
go down as a one-and-out team this year, he’ll do it by
emptying Charles’ gas tank. I also have to believe that
Baltimore will not become just the third defense this season to
hold Charles under double-digit fantasy points.
WR: Jennings and Garcon. Once again,
with only two spots available here, let’s eliminate most
of the bottom half of the list-worthy receivers (Boldin, Jones,
Meachem, Williams, Obomanu, Driver and White). The most troubling
one of that bunch to toss away is Boldin, but with only two double-digit
fantasy point totals over the second half of the season and no
plans by OC Cam Cameron to free him up with motion or using him
in the slot, there’s not a ton of reason to believe his
fall from grace will end anytime soon. The second round of cuts
is a bit tougher, but let’s eliminate Wayne (will be covered
by Darrelle Revis), Colston (may be limited followed arthroscopic
knee surgery last week), Edwards (too hot-and-cold in a run-oriented
offense against a defense that has struggled more with physical
receivers than deep threats), and Moore (more of a PPR asset than
non-PPR).
As a result, we are left with Bowe, Jennings, Jackson, Maclin,
Holmes, Garcon and Mason. I will eliminate both Eagles WRs from
the mix as Green Bay has been very good against opposing WRs (third-stingiest
in non-PPR) all season long and when it has struggled, it has
been against the “physical freaks” such as Calvin
Johnson or Dez Bryant, which Maclin and Jackson are not. (Maclin
is a zone beater and willing to run over the middle, however,
so he is certainly the better pick of the two Eagles’ receivers.)
I think Mason is the best bet among Ravens’ receivers this
week, but I cannot put a lot of faith into him when I expect Baltimore
to run the ball so much. Holmes is a strong consideration despite
the matchup (the Colts are the fifth-stingiest defense against
opposing WRs this season), but I don’t want to count on
both Sanchez being “on fire” and Holmes overcoming
a pass defense that has allowed just 11 passing scores to the
position this year.
Let’s go ahead and lock in Jennings as one receiver as
he has the QB (Rodgers) and likely matchup (Patterson) to explode
this weekend. Thus, my other spot is left to Garcon or Bowe, who
I would prefer to not start this week after watching the Chiefs
come out flat in Week 17 as if they were down about the imminent
departure of OC Charlie Weis. On the other hand, Garcon figures
to draw Antonio Cromartie in coverage for most of the day, but
ever since he has been able to practice regularly (since about
the midpoint of the season), he seems to have found his way back
into Manning’s good graces and has done a good job picking
up some of the slack since Collie went down. While bigger WRs
like Bowe have caused problems for the Ravens recently, I’m
afraid my decision will go down to the deadline as I tend to favor
receivers with better QBs. Therefore, that means that right now
I’ll take Garcon over Bowe, in part because I believe he
also has a better chance at earning me bonus points in the coming
weeks.
TE: Tamme. As we discussed in the
Blitz late in the season, there’s not a lot to love at the
TE position until next season. While it is tempting to leave this
spot open and hope that someone like Gronkowski will pay off big
next week, I cannot advise making such a move. Once again, byes
should eliminate Hernandez, Gronkowski, Gonzalez, Olsen and Miller
from consideration. Let’s also say goodbye to Shockey, Moeaki,
Celek, Keller and Heap. Of that group, Heap warrants some consideration,
but the combination of his injury history and the Chiefs’
ability to defend the TE is a bit much for me to overcome.
As a result, the list comes down to a pair of players that no
fantasy owner could have realistically considered at midseason:
Tamme and Graham. While I’m likely to put Graham among my
top 10 TEs for 2011, I don’t think there is any chance he
is going to see near the amount of attention Tamme will this weekend,
especially in light of his ankle injury. With the Jets’
CBs likely doing a good job on the Colts’ starting wideouts
and Blair White not likely to carry the day, I could easily see
something around 80-100 yards and a score from Tamme.
K: Vinatieri. Kickers never get
the respect they deserve – even in fantasy – but when
the game is on the line in the closing seconds, is there any position
more important at that point? With that said, in regular season
fantasy leagues, it’s understandable they are drafted where
they are because it has been well-established that you can pretty
well throw out last season’s top 10 when putting together
a ranking for the following season. It’s not unlike the
feeling of trying to pick a kicker in the postseason.
For example, it would not surprise me in the least if Olindo
Mare was the best fantasy kicker this weekend, but his likely
one-and-done status doesn’t appeal to me. Let’s also
remember that game flow plays a large role in determining the
best kicker on a weekly basis. At the same time, kicker is the
one position in this scoring format that I wouldn’t mind
adjusting week to week. What I do want in my kicker (again in
this scoring format where distance does not matter) is for him
to play in a good offense that tends to bog down in the red zone
and/or is playing against a stout defense. An added bonus would
be if the kicker has an indoor game or two in his future and is
known to be “clutch”. With only one “dome game”
this weekend (and only two teams likely to host an indoor game
this postseason), all this leads me to Vinatieri, who is much
more dependable than Folk and plays for an offense that figures
to move the ball but will likely struggle to score TDs this weekend.
I think that although Mare may give me a point or two more this
weekend, I’ll settle for a 1-2 XP, three-FG game from Vinatieri
this week and hope he can deliver a similar game next week when
my 2x point modifier could take effect.
DST: Saints. Because the “team
win” component stands out for the defense/special teams,
it becomes quite advantageous to select a unit that will likely
win unless a projected losing defense can be counted on to score
on a return (which typically it cannot). Although recent history
suggests that at least two home teams will win this week (it has
happened in each of the last three seasons in the Wildcard Round),
this year a case could be made that each road team will advance
– something that has not happened since 1989, the year before
the NFL added two more teams to the playoff mix in each conference
(from four to six). The Colts strike me as the most likely “home
winner” while the Seahawks and Chiefs appear to be the least
likely. The toughest one to call by default would then be the
Packers-Eagles game. As a result, the first round of cuts should
be the Jets, Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Eagles, leaving us
with the Colts, Ravens and Saints.
Are we to believe the Colts have found their run defense after
holding three straight opponents under 80 yards rushing? It’s
possible, but I’d just as soon not risk it if I don’t
have to quite yet. Plus, I don’t see the Jets calling a
great deal of passing plays this week, meaning the sack-strip
– which has been such a big part of the Indy defense over
the years – doesn’t figure to bail owners out this
week. This leaves us with the Ravens – who will face the
conservative, run-heavy Chiefs – and Saints, who will square
off against a Seahawks’ team that will need to throw a lot
to offset their porous running game. With the running game providing
little threat, I expect Saints DC Gregg Williams to dial up blitz
after blitz against whichever QB Seattle decides to trot out this
week. I don’t believe for a second that Whitehurst is ready
for a Williams-coached defense nor do I believe Hasselbeck will
last the entire game if he draws the start against New Orleans.
As a result, I’ll predict 13 points allowed (four fantasy
points) three sacks (three), two interceptions (four), a fumble
recovery (two) and a team win (five) from the Saints, all the
while hoping that I can also squeeze out a return touchdown. If
I can get those stat totals (minus the TD) from the Saints this
weekend, they will post a very respectable 18 points for me and
may also be my choice next week if they draw the Bears (but let’s
hold off on that until then).
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Rodgers: 315 passing yards, three passing TDs, 30 yards rushing
(27 fantasy points)
Rice: 90 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 30 receiving yards (18
points)
Charles: 85 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards (12 points)
Garcon: 85 receiving yards, one receiving TD (14 points)
Jennings: 130 receiving yards, two receiving TD (25 points)
Tamme: 90 receiving yards, one receiving TD (15 points)
Vinatieri: two extra points, three field goals (11 points)
Saints DST: 13 PA, three sacks, two INTs, a fumble recovery and
a team win (18 points)
Projected Total: 140 fantasy points
Fuzzy’s
Most of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well.
The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including
team win points although more fantasy points are awarded to kickers
who kick long field goals) and PPR scoring where all TDs are worth
six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring
lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each
owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be
used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues
contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ
a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the
entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least
- recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving
a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow
this link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2
RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be running several teams with Fuzzy’s this
season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present a brief
overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how strongly
I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the same lineup
in more than one league, but in general, I believe in “diversifying
my portfolio” in the postseason as well.
Fuzzy Portfolio |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
Team 5 |
QB |
Rodgers |
Vick |
Rodgers |
Vick |
Rodgers |
RB |
Rice |
Charles |
Rice |
Rice |
Charles |
RB |
Charles |
McCoy |
McCoy |
Charles |
McCoy |
WR |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
WR |
Garcon |
Garcon |
Garcon |
Maclin |
Bowe |
WR |
Maclin |
Bowe |
Maclin |
Bowe |
Mason |
TE |
Tamme |
Tamme |
Tamme |
Tamme |
Tamme |
K |
Akers |
Hartley |
Hartley |
Crosby |
Mare |
DST |
Saints |
Ravens |
Ravens |
Saints |
Saints |
Tie |
Vick |
Rodgers |
Vick |
Rodgers |
Vick |
|
As I stated in the NFL.com section regarding the QBs, there are
four realistic options this week – Rodgers, Brees, Vick
and Manning. Although Brees has a great matchup – albeit
in a hostile environment – I cannot select him if he isn’t
going to have Colston or Graham anywhere close to 100%. Manning’s
matchup is also too tough without Collie to put much faith in
him, especially when the other two options can both supplement
their passing-game numbers with yards and potential scores on
the ground.
In this PPR scoring format, there are really only three real
choices to make a RB this week: Charles, Rice and McCoy. With
10 RB slots open to me on these teams, I’ll likely employ
a 4-3-3 attack with Charles representing the “4”.
Each back’s potential workload is capped and all three could
be vultured at the goal line, although I feel Charles is the safest
play of the three (his 6.4 YPC this season helps my thinking in
this case).
Jennings will be in the lineup for all my teams this week. After
that, I don’t feel like there is a must-start out of the
rest of the bunch. In my mind, the best remaining receiver candidates
for this week are Bowe, Maclin, Holmes, Garcon, Moore and Mason.
Of this bunch, I believe Bowe, Maclin, Garcon and Mason are the
most likely receivers to find the end zone this week, although
I will not likely put Mason on more than one team despite the
fact he should be facing burnable CB Brandon Carr most of the
day. I’m also not going to tempt fate by playing Reggie
Wayne, who is likely to draw a rested Darrelle Revis in coverage
all day long. And despite the questionable health of Colston’s
knee, I’m not ready to trust Moore will come through with
huge numbers this week.
At TE, I feel very safe with Tamme and no one else…end
of story. My kicker selection is not so easy, however. Because
distance matters in this scoring format, I’ll probably spread
the wealth between Akers, Crosby, Hartley and Mare – all
of which have the leg to hit 50-yarders in less-than-ideal conditions.
Finally, my defensive picks come down to the teams who I feel
have the path of least resistance – the Saints and the Ravens.
With very few exceptions, my tiebreaker picks each week figures
to be my No. 2 choice at QB. Not only do quarterbacks score the
most fantasy points in this kind of scoring setup, but there are
the best bets to post 20+ points each week. In the cases of Rodgers
and Vick, both players can give their owners elite QB numbers
while providing significant scoring on the ground as well.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? e-mail me.
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