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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Projections - AFC & NFC East
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/17/12

East | West | North | South

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Back when I first introduced “Preseason Schedule Analysis” to the masses in 2008, I stated, “It has always been my goal to be a trendsetter.” Much has changed in the five years since I started down the path of using the arduous and painstaking method of considering each player vs. his matchup over the course of the 16-week fantasy season in order to build my projections for each player.

Slowly but surely, I have seen a gradual shift in regards to considering the matchups when it comes to forecasting fantasy numbers in recent years. (And no, I’m not looking for any kind of award for helping start a movement. I was hardly the first person to play fantasy football and think to myself, “Julio Jones has a lot of soft matchups around fantasy playoff time; he’d sure be a good gamble as my WR4.”) Still, I find the fantasy community is a bit hesitant to warm up to the idea of using matchups as an important part of setting their draft boards, which is ironic since every reputable fantasy site begins to post its weekly projections a few days before Week 1 and continues to do so through the Super Bowl. Some sites will offer positional strength of schedule based on last season, which can be a bit helpful but doesn’t take into account the host of personnel changes teams made during the offseason. Others simply provide a list of “players to target” based on the defenses that struggled defending that position the previous season. And the list goes on and on…

Fantasy football is a wonderful combination of several clichés, including most notably “if it can happen, it will happen” and “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. I have never once claimed – or believed – that I can see the future of the NFL, but that doesn’t mean it is not worth my time to take what I do know about each team (offensively and defensively) and apply it to my fantasy predictions. For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – which I have renamed “Preseason Matchup Analysis” this year – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the fantasy playoffs as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Buccaneers and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, this method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the playoffs – a time where there is usually very little separating each of the remaining teams.

Before we dive into the first round of projections, I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport are what we like to call in the industry “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are very few matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this…here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR
.

AFC EAST

 Buffalo Bills
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NYJ KC CLE NE SF ARI TEN bye HOU NE MIA IND JAX STL SEA MIA
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 29 15.9 15.9 222.7 222.7 3230 190 200 245 315 170 265 295 125 INJ 245 235 175 250 225 295
TD 20 2 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 INJ 2 2 1 2 1 3
INT 16 1 3 1 0 2 0 1 2 INJ 1 1 0 2 0 2
Ru Yards 55 10 0 5 0 10 15 5 0 INJ 5 0 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
QB Vince Young 29 12.3 12.3 24.6 24.6 440 120 320
TD 2 0 2
INT 4 1 3
Ru Yards 30 10 20
Ru TD 0 0 0
QB Brad Smith 28 3.3 2.7 48.9 40.9 110 0 0 0 45 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 30 0
TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru Yards 105 5 5 10 15 0 10 10 0 5 20 15 0 0 10 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 95 0 10 0 0 0 0 20 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2
RB Fred Jackson 31 15.4 13.2 231.5 198.5 1130 60 70 90 70 45 75 110 65 40 115 75 65 110 75 65
Ru TD 9 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 255 20 20 15 45 15 5 20 15 10 5 15 15 10 25 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 33 3 2 2 4 2 1 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 2
RB C.J. Spiller 25 12.8 9.8 192.5 147.5 665 35 45 50 40 25 20 50 35 45 55 70 45 55 40 55
Ru TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 450 25 15 25 50 15 30 75 35 65 30 25 10 0 20 30
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 3 2 2 5 2 3 6 4 6 2 3 1 0 3 3
WR Steve Johnson 26 15.3 9.9 229 149 1070 55 45 35 115 75 85 110 65 75 90 100 60 40 65 55
Re TD 7 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
Rec 80 4 3 2 10 6 7 8 4 4 6 8 5 4 5 4
WR David Nelson 25 10.9 6.3 164 95 710 40 60 60 75 35 75 25 40 35 40 20 40 55 50 60
Re TD 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 69 4 6 5 7 3 6 4 4 3 5 2 4 6 4 6
WR Donald Jones 24 6 3.8 78.5 49.5 375 20 15 30 30 15 INJ INJ 10 45 25 45 20 55 35 30
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 29 2 1 3 3 2 INJ INJ 1 4 2 3 1 3 2 2
WR Marcus Easley 24 4 2.6 51.5 33.5 275 15 0 35 10 0 60 15 35 0 15 INJ 15 50 25 INJ
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 1 0 INJ
Rec 18 2 0 2 1 0 3 1 2 0 1 INJ 1 3 2 INJ
WR T.J. Graham 23 1.3 1 17.5 12.5 125 0 0 25 0 15 0 0 45 INJ INJ 0 15 0 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 1
TE Scott Chandler 27 8 5 111.5 70.5 405 15 35 15 35 20 INJ 30 20 55 35 30 15 30 25 45
Re TD 5 1 1 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 41 2 3 2 3 3 INJ 3 2 5 4 3 1 3 3 4

General overview: This should be the first year since Chan Gailey oversaw the Miami Dolphins offense from 2000-2001 that he will have a choice in the way he attacks an opponent each week. In each of his last two stops – Kansas City in 2008 and Buffalo the past two years – Gailey has been forced to compensate for porous defenses, routinely spreading the defense out using three- and four-wide formations almost out of necessity. Adding DEs Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to the defensive line and first-round CB Stephon Gilmore to the defensive backfield gives new DC Dave Wannstedt a fighting chance to field a respectable unit, meaning Gailey will have an opportunity to return to his roots as a play-caller that loves to run the ball (Gailey’s offenses never finished lower than 12th in rush attempts in his first eight seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach). The Bills also beefed up the offensive line in the draft, landing Cordy Glenn in the second round. IF he can hold up against the top pass rushers at LT, he should be a definite upgrade in the running game, so Buffalo could very well possess one of the best rushing attacks in the league this season if Glenn is up to the task and the interior of the line stays healthy.

Matchup analysis: Although Ryan Fitzpatrick’s accuracy has been one of the bright spots of offseason workouts, he has posted just one season in which he has a positive TD-INT ratio, so it would be in the team’s best interest to see if Fred Jackson has another huge season or two in him. While he is highly unlikely to repeat his 5.5 YPC from a season ago, a 60-40 split (or something close to it) with C.J. Spiller probably isn’t the worst thing in the world for him entering his age-31 season. At this point, I would only downgrade Jackson and Spiller against the Niners and Texans, with the Jets a possibility since I suspect they will rebound against the run after a poor showing in 2011. But since both Jackson and Spiller are fine all-purpose backs behind what projects to be a better-than-average run-blocking line, I have chosen not to assign any red boxes to either back. The story is slightly different for the passing game as Steve Johnson could easily draw Revis, Brandon Flowers and Haden in primary coverage over the first three weeks, meaning a slow start is likely. And despite the fact he will also see a lot of Johnathan Joseph and Cortland Finnegan later in the year, Johnson has proven he can post respectable totals against even the most elite defensive backs. As the primary slot receiver with Johnson drawing the most attention, David Nelson has an attractive matchup board and stands a great chance of improving upon last season’s totals. Of course, his numbers also are the most volatile of anyone mentioned so far. If Buffalo decides to use Scott Chandler more often outside the red zone or lean on the running game as I suggest they will, then his opportunities to shine will be more limited than expected.

 Miami Dolphins
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HOU OAK NYJ ARI CIN STL bye NYJ IND TEN BUF SEA NE SF JAX BUF
QB David Garrard 34 16.6 16.6 165.7 165.7 2330 180 310 220 250 185 275 215 275 280 140 INJ
TD 11 0 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 0 INJ
INT 14 2 1 0 3 1 1 2 1 0 3 INJ
Ru Yards 165 10 30 5 15 20 25 15 15 20 10 INJ
Ru TD 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 INJ
QB Matt Moore 28 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 280 280
TD 2 2
INT 2 2
Ru Yards 5 5
Ru TD 0 0
QB Ryan Tannehill 24 11.6 11.6 69.7 69.7 1130 50 75 250 225 275 255
TD 5 0 1 1 0 2 1
INT 8 1 1 3 2 0 1
Ru Yards 45 0 0 15 5 20 5
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
RB Reggie Bush 27 15.9 11 191 132 520 40 60 30 INJ INJ 55 45 60 40 60 35 30 20 INJ 45
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 1
Re Yards 500 30 50 40 INJ INJ 45 40 65 55 40 35 55 15 INJ 30
Re TD 2 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0
Rec 59 5 6 4 INJ INJ 5 5 4 6 5 5 7 3 INJ 4
RB Daniel Thomas 24 10.7 9.5 149.5 133.5 915 70 75 60 75 90 40 25 110 50 INJ 50 75 55 70 70
Ru TD 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 INJ 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 120 10 5 0 20 15 5 0 10 15 INJ 10 0 10 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 1 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 2 INJ 1 0 2 2 1
RB Lamar Miller 21 5.2 3.3 57.5 36.5 140 0 20 10 30 15 0 10 INJ INJ INJ 5 INJ 0 40 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 INJ 0 0 0
Re Yards 165 10 15 0 15 20 15 25 INJ INJ INJ 15 INJ 10 30 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 21 1 2 0 2 3 1 3 INJ INJ INJ 2 INJ 1 5 1
WR Chad Ochocinco 34 6.9 4.2 103.5 62.5 505 35 50 15 30 45 65 0 50 25 30 40 35 25 40 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 41 3 4 1 3 4 5 0 4 2 3 3 3 2 3 1
WR Brian Hartline 25 7 4.2 104.5 63.5 515 30 55 25 50 30 15 30 55 25 45 40 25 55 20 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 41 2 3 2 3 3 2 3 5 2 3 4 2 4 2 1
WR Davone Bess 26 8.6 4.7 128.5 70.5 585 45 50 35 60 20 35 25 25 60 30 20 40 35 65 40
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 58 4 5 2 6 2 3 2 4 6 3 2 5 4 6 4
WR B.J. Cunningham 23 2 1 29.5 15.5 155 15 0 10 10 0 30 15 0 25 0 15 10 0 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 1 1 0 3 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 2
WR Roberto Wallace 26 4.3 2.7 64.5 40.5 285 0 20 0 15 0 0 35 0 0 15 0 40 50 60 50
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 24 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 4 5 5 4
TE Anthony Fasano 28 5.7 3.7 85 55 310 20 10 25 20 15 25 15 30 10 35 35 15 0 30 25
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 30 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 1 0 3 2
TE Charles Clay 23 8.6 5.2 129 78 600 35 55 70 30 40 40 30 40 65 20 70 30 25 15 35
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 51 3 4 5 2 5 4 2 3 5 2 6 3 2 1 4

General overview: Even the most loyal Dolphins fans know they are in the midst of a rebuilding project. David Garrard and Matt Moore have each shown they can be better-than-league-average quarterbacks and Ryan Tannehill should one day be able to ascend past that. And on a team with a stable of talented pass-catching options, that would be acceptable in most cases. In Miami, however, it could be argued their two best receivers actually are listed as running backs. Coverage magnet Brandon Marshall is no longer around, which means the spread-the-wealth offense of new HC Joe Philbin and OC Mike Sherman will be put to the test with receivers that would be nothing more than role players on most teams. On the bright side, the Dolphins have two potential difference makers in Daniel Thomas and Charles Clay that should be able to display their talents in the new offense more than they were able to in 2011. Reggie Bush has already stated publically that he expects his role to change this season and in this version of the West Coast offense (that will feature a zone-blocking running game), look for Bush to return to something similar to the “satellite” back role he held in New Orleans as the Dolphins attempt to manufacture big plays.

Matchup analysis: It will be in the Dolphins’ best interest to build their offense around the aforementioned three players (Thomas, Bush and Clay) simply because Brian Hartline cannot be expected to carry the passing game since he is primarily a deep threat. Nor can the same be expected from Davone Bess, who thrives primarily in the short passing game. And as his failed stint in New England proved, Chad Ochocinco cannot be counted to be overly productive in an offense where he is not allowed to “freelance”. Training camp will ultimately prove if promising veteran Roberto Wallace or rookies B.J. Cunningham and Jeff Fuller can crack the top three and give the quarterbacks the kind of big receivers usually featured in a West Coast offense. The matchups would be difficult for a league-average receiving corps, but figure to be brutal for Miami against some of the best cornerbacks in the game over the first half of the season. One could argue the matchups get a bit easier in the second half, but there is a strong chance the Dolphins will be ready to turn things over to Ryan Tannehill by the time December rolls around. That’s why I continue the theme of the running game since a healthier Thomas running behind a zone-blocking line should give Miami a fighting chance. Again, the first half will be challenging (especially if the Jets’ run defense improves as I believe it will), but there is enough talent here to make the case that the Dolphins can support two runners worth starting in a flex spot on a regular basis. With that said, I cannot hand out any green boxes to Bush and Thomas due to the uncertainty of their roles. The ones that have me wavering on that decision, however, are the matchups in Week 2 (Oakland), Week 6 (St. Louis) and Week 9 (Indianapolis).

 New England Patriots
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TEN ARI BAL BUF DEN SEA NYJ STL bye BUF IND NYJ MIA HOU SF JAX
QB Tom Brady 35 30 30 450.2 450.2 4955 350 330 300 415 280 360 275 285 375 390 285 410 260 285 355
TD 42 4 2 1 3 3 3 1 3 4 4 2 5 2 3 2
INT 9 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 0
Ru Yards 60 0 5 5 0 10 5 0 0 5 0 10 5 10 0 5
Ru TD 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Stevan Ridley 23 10.8 9.8 150.5 137.5 815 80 45 75 30 75 55 80 105 45 60 35 INJ 50 25 55
Ru TD 8 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 INJ 0 0 1
Re Yards 80 5 0 5 0 10 15 0 0 15 0 5 INJ 10 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 2 0 1 INJ 2 2 1
RB Shane Vereen 23 9.3 7 121.5 91.5 510 35 55 15 50 INJ INJ 25 40 35 40 50 60 25 35 45
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 225 15 10 10 25 INJ INJ 25 15 35 15 15 20 10 20 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 3 1 2 3 INJ INJ 2 3 3 2 3 2 1 3 2
RB Joseph Addai 29 3.2 2.2 38.5 26.5 125 10 15 5 0 15 5 INJ INJ INJ 30 15 15 0 10 5
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 80 0 15 0 10 0 15 INJ INJ INJ 10 5 10 0 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 0 2 0 1 0 2 INJ INJ INJ 2 1 1 0 2 1
RB Danny Woodhead 27 3.9 2.8 58.5 41.5 210 10 15 10 15 35 20 15 5 15 5 10 25 15 15 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 145 0 15 5 10 25 10 10 5 15 0 10 15 10 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 0 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 2 1 0 2
WR Wes Welker 31 15.8 9.4 237.5 141.5 1055 65 85 55 135 55 90 40 50 70 55 80 100 50 55 70
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
Rec 96 6 7 5 12 5 10 4 4 8 5 7 6 6 5 6
WR Brandon Lloyd 32 14.8 10.5 222 157 970 105 50 65 55 25 55 60 80 70 110 40 100 55 60 40
Re TD 10 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 0
Rec 65 5 4 5 3 2 4 4 7 6 6 3 5 4 4 3
WR Jabar Gaffney 31 6.4 4 89.5 55.5 375 40 25 30 20 25 40 20 15 45 15 10 35 15 INJ 40
Re TD 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0
Rec 34 3 2 4 2 2 3 2 1 4 1 1 3 2 INJ 4
WR Deion Branch 33 4.1 2.6 49 31 190 15 25 15 0 10 INJ INJ INJ 10 20 0 30 20 45 0
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 18 1 2 2 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 1 2 0 3 2 4 0
WR Julian Edelman 26 0.7 0.3 10 5 50 0 0 10 0 0 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
TE Rob Gronkowski 23 16.7 11.6 250.5 173.5 1015 65 35 60 110 50 120 50 70 70 55 70 65 55 35 105
Re TD 12 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1
Rec 77 5 3 4 7 4 8 4 5 6 4 5 6 5 3 8
TE Aaron Hernandez 22 13.7 8.9 192 125 770 40 70 45 50 80 INJ 60 50 45 110 50 35 35 35 65
Re TD 8 1 1 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 67 4 6 5 4 7 INJ 4 5 4 8 5 3 2 4 6

General overview: Let’s just get it out there right away: this could be a historically good offense. If we were to create the perfect scenario of events/occurrences necessary to pile up legendary passing numbers, it would have to include an elite quarterback who is allowed to call his own plays and run his offense at a blistering pace, an embarrassment of riches at receiver and tight end, a defense that will struggle to keep opponents from moving the ball on it and a coach just ruthless enough that he won’t necessarily ask his offensive coordinator to lay off the pedal when his team goes up by more than 20 points. The one thing that leaps out at me as I study the Patriots’ schedule is the lack of quality safety play from most of their opponents – especially after the first month – meaning the deep ball should be a regular feature of the offense. Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney are huge upgrades over the patchwork job New England used at the position in 2011 for an offense that still somehow manage to pass for 5,261 yards despite the regular use of Deion Branch and failed Chad Ochocinco experiment. Assuming that Stevan Ridley has used the offseason to correct his ball-security issues, he could add a big-play element to an offense that gave the steady (if not somewhat plodding) BenJarvus Green-Ellis the majority of carries in recent years.

Matchup analysis: For the rest of this division, there are enough difficult matchups to give fantasy owners some pause. For this offense, however, I don’t think there is a single defense in the league capable of containing this offense when Tom Brady is on his game (which is most of the time). Wes Welker is almost impossible to cover in the slot, Lloyd gives this offense a dynamic downfield receiver it hasn’t had since Randy Moss, Gaffney is one of the best third receivers in the league and we haven’t even started talking about how difficult it was for defenses to stop both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez last season (and that was without the fear of a big-play threat like Lloyd taking the top off the defense). In short, if you own one of the five New England players I just mentioned and he doesn’t have a productive fantasy week that week, chances are that it is coming the next week. I will offer one warning: the back end of the Patriots’ schedule (including all three fantasy playoff weeks) is loaded with teams that have a shot at stalling this offense for a quarter or half. I expect the running game to basically serve as a way to grab a few yards while the receivers catch their breath and run out the clock at the end of games. Ridley is the overwhelming favorite to pick up Green-Ellis’ goal-line back role and needs to be considered a strong flex option. As was the case last season with the “Law Firm”, however, there will be times Ridley will play at a fantasy RB2 level and other times where he should be on your bench. Given the sporadic playing time of Patriots’ running backs in the post-Corey Dillon era, I’m not even going to pretend to have either of those spots figured out – especially in mid-July.

 New York Jets
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
BUF PIT MIA SF HOU IND NE MIA bye SEA STL NE ARI JAX TEN SD
QB Mark Sanchez 25 14.4 14.4 215.4 215.4 2885 180 205 195 155 190 230 265 145 245 165 125 200 160 275 150
TD 17 1 1 2 1 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 3 1
INT 15 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 3 1 2 0 2 1 1
Ru Yards 100 5 10 0 5 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 20 5 15 10
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
QB Tim Tebow 25 6.1 6.1 91.8 91.8 295 25 15 0 0 15 0 0 50 0 25 140 0 0 0 25
TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
INT 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ru Yards 360 35 15 45 20 15 40 20 15 15 20 35 35 15 20 15
Ru TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
RB Shonn Greene 27 12 10.6 168.5 148.5 980 55 45 110 35 80 125 60 70 50 90 30 INJ 90 60 80
Ru TD 6 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0
Re Yards 145 5 15 0 15 5 0 30 10 20 5 10 INJ 0 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 20 1 3 0 2 1 0 4 1 2 1 1 INJ 0 2 2
RB Joe McKnight 24 7.8 5.2 116.5 78.5 350 10 10 30 20 0 15 25 10 10 40 55 65 10 25 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 315 20 10 10 15 25 5 20 25 45 10 20 30 15 45 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 38 3 2 1 2 4 1 3 2 4 1 2 4 2 4 3
RB Terrance Ganaway 23 1.3 1.2 20 18 95 0 0 10 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 15 30 20 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 25 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
WR Santonio Holmes 28 11.8 7.5 177 112 820 40 70 60 55 20 70 65 50 70 45 45 65 40 75 50
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 65 4 5 4 5 2 4 5 4 6 3 3 6 4 5 5
WR Stephen Hill 21 5.4 4 81.5 60.5 425 30 55 45 0 40 50 70 25 0 25 35 0 20 30 0
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 1 2 2 0 3 2 2 3 0 1 1 0 2 2 0
WR Jeremy Kerley 23 7.5 4.3 112 65 530 40 25 15 55 70 20 30 35 25 55 60 20 15 45 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 47 4 2 1 5 5 2 2 3 3 4 5 3 2 4 2
WR Chaz Schilens 26 4.6 2.9 41.5 26.5 205 15 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 25 15 40 45 10 30 15
Re TD 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 15 1 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 2 1 2 3 1 3 1
TE Dustin Keller 27 10.3 6.6 155 99 690 55 35 65 15 45 75 40 50 60 30 55 25 60 40 40
Re TD 5 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 56 6 3 5 1 3 6 3 4 5 2 4 3 4 3 4

General overview: If you loved “Ground-and-Pound” over the first two years of the Rex Ryan regime, then prepare to be brought to your knees (or one knee if Tim Tebow has anything to say about it) for Wildcat 2.0. While the “Wildcat” will not be the primary method of attack, it will be a staple of the Jets’ offense now under new OC Tony Sparano. And based on the current state of their receiving corps, it isn’t the worst idea to lean on the running game that led the league in attempts in 2009 and finished second in 2010, even if the team doesn’t possess the same caliber of run-blocking offensive linemen it did just a few years ago. In no way is that meant to be an insult at the collection of talent New York has at receiver – the talent is not a question – but Santonio Holmes is highly unpredictable and rookie Stephen Hill is extremely raw. In fact, Dustin Keller is probably the most stable and dependable option the Jets have in the passing game. But isn’t he actually hurt the most by a run-heavy attack since that fact alone figures to decrease the number of opportunities he has to catch the scattershot throws of Mark Sanchez and Tebow? While this offense probably won’t light up the scoreboard, it should be interesting to see just how Sparano is able to incorporate what seems like a bunch of mismatched parts into what he hopes will be a ball-control offense. For example, Sparano has already promised to run Shonn Greene a lot, but how long will it take before his inability to convert in the red zone catches up to him and leaves Tebow as the primary option in that situation? Like I said, it should be interesting…

Matchup analysis: As one look at the table above reveals, I have little confidence in the Jets’ passing attack, except for a three-week neutral stretch leading into the bye. If Holmes and Sanchez have truly put aside their differences and the former is focused squarely on maximizing his talent, then he has a shot at being a capable fantasy WR3 in all but the most difficult matchups. And as dynamic of a deep threat (and talent) as Hill is, counting on him to develop the route-running ability necessary to make defenses respect him in the short and intermediate passing game is a tall order in his first season. As a result, I have a difficult time suggesting this offense will click early on under the pressure the Jets will face from the likes of the Steelers, Texans and Niners. Against defenses of that caliber, less-than-perfect throws and sloppy route-running are magnified and there is little reason to believe that New York will have everyone up to speed in the offense. Considering four of the more difficult defenses on the schedule come in the first five weeks, the offense may not get on track until the second half of the season, if even then. I’m slightly more optimistic about the running game based on the simple fact the Jets will be one of the few teams running the ball 500-600 times. Since the focus of the offense will be on the run, I feel more comfortable applying green to some of their matchups because the team will almost certainly rely on the run in just about every game for as long as possible.

 Dallas Cowboys
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NYG SEA TB CHI bye BAL CAR NYG ATL PHI CLE WAS PHI CIN PIT NO
QB Tony Romo 32 22.7 22.7 340.4 340.4 4110 300 280 385 255 265 275 300 250 190 280 260 240 300 215 315
TD 31 2 1 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 4
INT 11 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 0
Ru Yards 60 5 5 0 5 5 0 10 5 0 0 5 10 0 0 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
QB Kyle Orton 29 0 0 0.2 0.2 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
INT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru Yards 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 24 17.9 15.1 233 196 1190 75 60 110 85 60 120 90 50 100 INJ INJ 125 115 60 140
Ru TD 8 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 INJ INJ 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 290 25 20 55 15 20 5 10 45 30 INJ INJ 15 40 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 37 4 3 5 2 3 1 2 3 5 INJ INJ 3 4 2 0
RB Felix Jones 25 10 6.7 119.5 80.5 345 25 15 15 40 20 30 45 INJ INJ INJ 75 25 25 15 15
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 280 45 15 30 15 15 45 20 INJ INJ INJ 25 10 25 10 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 5 2 4 2 3 6 3 INJ INJ INJ 4 2 2 3 3
RB Phillip Tanner 23 0.9 0.7 13 10 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 15 60 0 0 0 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lawrence Vickers 29 2 1.5 30 22 45 5 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 5 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 55 5 0 5 0 10 0 0 0 5 15 0 10 0 5 0
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
WR Miles Austin 28 16.7 11.1 250 167 1130 80 85 120 70 55 100 55 85 30 125 45 80 70 55 75
Re TD 9 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 83 6 6 7 6 4 8 5 5 3 7 4 5 6 5 6
WR Dez Bryant 23 16.1 11.2 209 146 920 SUS SUS 60 75 80 50 80 40 75 35 105 70 90 50 110
Re TD 9 SUS SUS 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 1 1
Rec 63 SUS SUS 4 5 6 3 5 3 6 2 6 6 6 4 7
WR Andre Holmes 24 4.7 3 60.5 38.5 265 40 40 10 30 15 0 40 25 INJ INJ 0 10 20 15 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 22 3 4 1 3 1 0 3 1 INJ INJ 0 1 2 1 2
WR Kevin Ogletree 24 2.7 1.5 37.5 21.5 155 25 30 15 0 10 0 5 10 25 INJ 10 0 0 20 5
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 INJ 1 0 0 2 1
WR Danny Coale 24 0.9 0.4 13 6 60 10 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 10 20 0 0 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1
TE Jason Witten 30 13.7 8.3 205 125 890 70 75 80 50 45 60 85 45 50 60 75 30 55 45 65
Re TD 6 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 80 7 6 6 5 4 6 7 4 5 6 5 3 6 3 7
TE John Phillips 25 2.3 1.5 34.5 22.5 105 0 15 10 0 15 0 5 0 15 15 0 15 0 5 10
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 12 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 1

General overview: It’s no secret that Tony Romo gets an inordinate amount of the blame for the Cowboys’ relative lack of success in the most critical games – it’s part of the job description, especially in Dallas. But let’s look at a fact or two: among all quarterbacks in NFL history, Romo owns the second-best passer rating and fifth-best yards-per-attempt average. He is also coming off his second-best fantasy season since becoming the full-time starter in 2006 despite missing Miles Austin for six games and working around a constantly injured and slightly less-than-100%-fit Dez Bryant. Never mind the fact that he also maintained relevance in fantasy leagues when DeMarco Murray went crazy and picked up where he left off with his solid fantasy numbers once his stud RB was lost for the season. This season, Bryant appears as ready as ever to fulfill his vast potential and Austin is completely recovered from his hamstring ailments. Sure, the team will miss Laurent Robinson’s contributions, but his absence should mean that Jason Witten resumes his 80-90 catch ways as Romo’s favorite target. Last year proved that HC Jason Garrett is not afraid to run the ball a lot if he has a bellcow runner to do it with, but one of the main similarities with all the skill-position starters is that each one is a significant weapon in the passing game. With new OL coach Bill Callahan – considered to be one of the best in the league – organizing things up front, this offense finally appears ready to fulfill its vast potential in 2012.

Matchup analysis: As evidenced by the difference in the colors alongside Murray and Felix Jones, there is a substantial difference between the two backs. While both are injury risks, I cannot in good faith suggest that Murray is not capable of posting a solid fantasy game against even the most accomplished defenses. Obviously, the same cannot be said about Jones. Games against Seattle, Chicago, Baltimore, Atlanta and Pittsburgh give me the most pause, but it is not as if Murray should ever have to deal with an eight-man box as long as everyone in the passing game stays healthy. Romo and his receivers will have their work cut out for them in the second half of the season, but none of those opponents feature a pair of cornerbacks that should be able to lock up both Austin and Bryant for an entire game, although Philadelphia could pose a threat should they use more press man coverage this season (which suits the strengths of CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie better than the off-man and zone coverage the Eagles used last season). But even in those games, expect a heavy dose of Witten, meaning Romo should be almost matchup-proof. Like the Patriots above, there are simply too many weapons for this offense to struggle for very long in any game. Unlike the Patriots, they will rely a great deal on the running game, meaning Romo cannot be expected to perform at the same level as Brady. I do, however, expect Romo to have his finest fantasy season in 2012, with a big key to that being the kind of season fantasy owners have been waiting to see from Bryant.

Update – July 16: Bryant was arrested on a misdemeanor domestic violence charge. Although it was his first arrest, it isn’t the first time he’s found himself in trouble off the field. Look for Roger Goodell to hand out a season-opening suspension. For the purposes of this article, I will guess two games. (As more details of this case become public knowledge, I will update the Cowboys’ projections if/as necessary.)

 New York Giants
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DAL TB CAR PHI CLE SF WAS DAL PIT CIN bye GB WAS NO ATL BAL
QB Eli Manning 31 22 22 329.8 329.8 4295 305 280 290 275 245 270 330 275 220 360 375 245 365 265 195
TD 29 2 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 1 2 4 1 4 2 1
INT 14 1 1 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 1
Ru Yards 60 5 0 5 5 0 5 0 10 0 0 15 5 0 10 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 26 16.1 12.7 209 165 830 55 75 110 60 70 45 INJ INJ 35 30 60 70 100 65 55
Ru TD 7 0 1 2 0 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 340 30 20 5 40 30 50 INJ INJ 10 35 35 20 45 15 5
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 44 4 3 1 4 3 6 INJ INJ 1 5 4 3 6 2 2
RB David Wilson 21 7 6 97.5 83.5 620 35 35 45 45 55 30 85 60 45 55 25 INJ 40 25 40
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 1
Re Yards 95 10 0 10 0 5 5 15 5 0 5 0 INJ 5 25 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 0 INJ 2 1 1
RB D.J. Ware 27 4.3 2.6 64.5 38.5 150 10 15 0 5 10 0 25 15 5 0 10 35 5 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 175 10 25 10 0 15 5 20 15 0 10 15 15 20 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 2 3 1 0 2 1 3 2 0 1 2 3 4 1 1
WR Hakeem Nicks 24 18 12.2 252.5 170.5 1105 75 65 115 55 105 65 80 INJ 55 80 120 100 70 55 65
Re TD 10 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 INJ 0 1 1 1 2 0 0
Rec 82 6 4 8 3 9 6 6 INJ 4 6 10 7 5 3 5
WR Victor Cruz 25 19.2 12.7 288 190 1360 80 110 75 115 40 65 135 130 65 130 75 50 155 95 40
Re TD 9 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 98 8 7 6 7 4 6 7 10 6 8 6 3 7 8 5
WR Domenik Hixon 27 5.3 3.3 80 49 430 40 20 35 10 25 45 10 40 40 20 30 10 30 35 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 31 3 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 1 3 1 3 2 2
WR Rueben Randle 21 4.4 2.9 52.5 34.5 225 15 0 20 15 0 0 10 60 15 25 40 25 INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ
Rec 18 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 5 1 2 3 2 INJ INJ INJ
TE Martellus Bennett 25 8.5 5.4 127 81 510 45 30 20 40 20 35 55 25 35 45 60 20 40 15 25
Re TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 46 4 3 2 3 1 4 5 2 3 3 6 2 3 2 3

General overview: A theme in several of the major pro sports this year has been “the rich getting richer”. Such is the case with the Giants, who replaced Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham with their first two draft choices, David Wilson and Rueben Randle. Obviously, neither rookie can be expected to be a better pro immediately than their veteran counterpart – both of which landed in San Francisco – but New York doesn’t need either player to step up and be a starter in Week 1 anyway. They also grabbed ex-Dallas TE Martellus Bennett, who is at least an athletic upgrade over Jake Ballard and considered one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL. While some may have argued that Eli Manning was already an elite quarterback, it wasn’t until last season that he proved it to me. (And the numbers, courtesy of Pro Football Focus, back me up.) PFF said: “In 2010, Manning averaged 8.1 yards per attempt when there was no pressure and 5.8 yards per attempt when there was pressure. In 2011, he stayed the same when there was no pressure, but improved to 8.4 yards per attempt when under pressure. That is part of why Eli went from being ‘good’ to being ‘elite’.” While the quarterback should never receive all the credit or blame, it was obvious to me his decision-making has markedly improved in just the past couple of years, meaning he should be trusted to carry the offense when necessary. The increase in Manning’s YPA under pressure was undoubtedly helped by the likes of Victor Cruz, who posted a ridiculous 18.7 YPC on 82 catches. Much to the chagrin of old-school HC Tom Coughlin, the talent on this team favors another season of big passing numbers.

Matchup analysis: There is no question that many of the stars lined up perfectly for Manning & Co. last season and it started in the Giants’ own division. The Cowboys were sometimes laughably bad against the pass and the Eagles believed so much in their “wide-nine” scheme that they forgot to let their high-priced defensive backs do what they do best – play press-man defense. And let’s not forget the Giants’ tendency during the early part of last season to fall behind inferior opponents, further forcing the team to rely on Manning to bring New York back. Logic suggests that both Dallas (through personnel upgrades) and Philadelphia (through experience) have corrected their flaws and will be much more competitive against the pass in 2012. And unfortunately, New York trades in the defenses of the AFC East and NFC West for the AFC North and NFC South this season. While the NFC swap isn’t that big of a deal from a matchup perspective, the AFC one sure is, so suffice it to say that another 4,933-yard season is not in the cards for Manning in 2012. With that said, however, Hakeem Nicks and Cruz combine to form one of the top receiver duos in the league and the receiving abilities of Ahmad Bradshaw (and perhaps Wilson) will ensure that Manning remains a top 10 QB. The part that would scare me most is that New York may be facing its two most difficult pass defenses of the season in Week 15 and 16. Obviously, there is some projection here, but the combo of Brent Grimes and Asante Samuel one week and Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith during fantasy championship week is daunting. I’m not exactly a big fan of the those two matchups from a running game perspective either, so when you combine that potential risk with the likelihood that Wilson may become a fairly significant thorn in the side of Bradshaw’s fantasy owners (not to mention the injury risk he already carries), Bradshaw may not be one player you want on your team during the fantasy playoffs.

 Philadelphia Eagles
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CLE BAL ARI NYG PIT DET bye ATL NO DAL WAS CAR DAL TB CIN WAS
QB Michael Vick 32 23.9 23.9 310.2 310.2 3380 270 240 300 280 180 355 250 330 85 INJ INJ 280 280 255 275
TD 23 1 1 2 2 2 4 0 3 0 INJ INJ 1 3 1 3
INT 12 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 INJ INJ 2 1 0 2
Ru Yards 430 35 25 25 50 20 20 50 40 15 INJ INJ 40 55 30 25
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
QB Mike Kafka 25 10.8 10.8 32.5 32.5 700 205 265 230
TD 2 1 1 0
INT 4 1 1 2
Ru Yards 5 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB LeSean McCoy 24 21.3 17.3 320 260 1235 75 40 65 100 50 95 50 110 85 105 140 55 120 85 60
Ru TD 13 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 1 1 1
Re Yards 465 55 30 45 15 20 35 30 35 30 20 15 45 15 35 40
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 60 4 5 6 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 6 2 5 6
RB Dion Lewis 21 1.8 1.3 27 20 150 10 0 20 0 0 5 0 15 15 10 25 5 20 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 50 5 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 15 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0
WR Jeremy Maclin 24 16.4 11.2 246 168 1080 75 65 70 110 45 120 45 80 40 100 35 65 50 80 100
Re TD 10 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1
Rec 78 5 4 4 8 5 6 4 7 3 8 2 5 5 6 6
WR DeSean Jackson 25 13.4 9.6 187 134 980 25 55 115 60 40 110 65 115 50 40 INJ 65 105 65 70
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 2 0 1
Rec 53 2 2 4 4 2 6 5 5 3 2 INJ 5 4 4 5
WR Jason Avant 29 7.2 4 108 60 540 40 60 10 25 50 40 70 25 30 40 55 35 5 30 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 3 5 1 3 4 3 6 2 2 5 5 4 1 2 2
WR Riley Cooper 24 1.7 0.9 25.5 13.5 135 15 0 15 5 0 0 15 10 0 0 35 0 40 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 1 0 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 0
WR Marvin McNutt 23 0.7 0.4 11 6 60 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 15 0 10 10 0 0 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
TE Brent Celek 27 10.6 6.6 158.5 98.5 685 40 20 35 55 20 40 25 50 110 45 55 70 50 30 40
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 60 3 2 3 5 2 3 3 5 7 4 4 6 5 3 5
TE Clay Harbor 25 1.3 0.8 19.5 12.5 65 15 10 0 0 5 0 0 0 10 0 25 0 0 0 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0

General overview: Outside of rounding out their depth chart at receiver and running back, the biggest fantasy news coming from the offensive side of the ball in Philadelphia (not including Jason Peters’ injury) is that Michael Vick is finally enjoying his first full offseason as the unquestioned starter since his last season as a Falcon back in 2006. (In 2009, he was the “Wildcat” QB behind Donovan McNabb. In 2010, he was all set to back up Kevin Kolb until HC Andy Reid did an about-face after Week 1. And in 2011, we had the lockout.) Be that as it may, Vick finally appears to understand the commitment necessary to be an elite quarterback in the NFL. And a healthy and invested Vick – a combination that we have yet to see as he enters his 10th season as a pro – is a dream for value-seeking fantasy owners and a nightmare for opposing defenses. Further contributing to his cause will be a completely healthy Jeremy Maclin, who dealt with a mysterious illness that robbed him of any meaningful preseason preparation and a bum hamstring for most of the second half of the season. He has drawn rave reviews this offseason, bulking up to 205 pounds since last season and even drawing a Michael Irvin comparison from Vick. One can only hope now that DeSean Jackson has his long-term contract that he will go back to being the incredible big-play artist who struck fear into defenses back in 2009 and parts of 2010 and leave the sulking and immature version of himself back in 2011. Philadelphia has no such questions about LeSean McCoy, who has basically evolved into a more durable version of Brian Westbrook.

Matchup analysis: Over the next four weeks, there will be times that it won’t be necessary for me to provide a matchup overview for a player because he is essentially matchup-proof; McCoy’s receiver-like contributions in the passing game make him one of those players. So even though the Ravens, Steelers and Falcons all stand a fairly good chance at bottling him up on the ground, he is extremely likely to catch 5-8 passes in each of those games. The same matchup-proof statement could actually also be said about Vick, who may see his passing numbers deflated by the AFC North defenses on the Eagles’ schedule, but his running ability – even if he cuts back on his attempts – makes him a no-brainer option every week he is healthy. Like the first two NFC East teams we have already discussed, the matchups for the wideouts would be brutal if we were talking about average receivers – but we’re not. While all bets are off if/when Vick gets hurt, I have no question Maclin is ready to become a consistent top 10 fantasy receiver starting in 2012. Vick obviously loves and trusts him and he is the one receiver on this team that can win on every level (short, intermediate and deep) and not allergic to running routes inside the numbers. There’s no doubt Maclin benefits from the presence of Jackson, who still commands enough respect – despite his antics and unwillingness to run the entire route tree – that he still often draws the opponent’s top cornerback when that defense opts to “shadow” a receiver. We should get some sense as to whether or not that will change early on this season since each of the Eagles’ first five opponents could employ that tactic to varying degrees. And it doesn’t change much in the second half since Atlanta (Brent Grimes), Dallas (rookie Morris Claiborne), Carolina (Chris Gamble) and Tampa Bay (Aqib Talib) have players capable of being an effective shadow or already proven they can do the job.

 Washington Redskins
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NO STL CIN TB ATL MIN NYG PIT CAR bye PHI DAL NYG BAL CLE PHI
QB Robert Griffin III 22 20 20 280.6 280.6 3365 275 225 265 320 250 75 255 190 265 270 175 INJ 265 275 260
TD 18 2 1 1 3 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 INJ 1 2 1
INT 15 1 1 1 0 3 0 2 1 0 1 1 INJ 0 1 3
Ru Yards 440 40 55 25 30 15 60 30 20 15 25 35 INJ 20 55 15
Ru TD 4 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 0 0 0
QB Rex Grossman 32 14.3 14.3 42.9 42.9 660 205 150 305
TD 4 1 1 2
INT 4 1 1 2
Ru Yards 5 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Tim Hightower 26 7.1 5.8 99 81 410 40 25 50 15 30 20 55 25 INJ 45 20 15 20 45 5
Ru TD 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 1 1
Re Yards 100 10 5 20 5 10 0 15 5 INJ 5 10 0 10 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 18 2 1 4 1 2 0 2 1 INJ 1 1 0 2 1 0
RB Roy Helu 23 15.2 11.9 197.5 154.5 855 70 90 30 30 50 65 INJ INJ 25 40 80 105 65 85 120
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 330 20 10 15 5 35 30 INJ INJ 10 60 55 35 25 15 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 43 3 1 2 1 5 3 INJ INJ 2 8 6 4 4 2 2
RB Evan Royster 24 3.5 2.6 52.5 39.5 260 10 10 0 45 10 0 30 45 90 10 0 10 0 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 75 5 0 0 25 5 0 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 1 0 0 3 1 0 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR Pierre Garcon 26 11.4 7.5 171.5 112.5 825 70 50 75 115 40 45 55 35 50 25 55 100 35 35 40
Re TD 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 59 5 4 5 6 3 3 5 3 4 2 4 6 2 3 4
WR Santana Moss 33 11.1 6.8 155 95 710 50 40 60 INJ 45 40 65 40 50 50 80 40 45 70 35
Re TD 4 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 60 5 4 5 INJ 3 5 6 4 3 4 6 4 4 5 2
WR Leonard Hankerson 23 7.1 4.3 106 64 460 25 40 15 40 30 55 15 20 60 25 20 15 50 30 20
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 42 2 3 1 3 3 5 1 2 6 2 2 2 5 3 2
WR Josh Morgan 27 4.4 2.6 65.5 38.5 325 10 0 20 35 0 30 30 15 30 15 25 45 20 40 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 1 0 2 2 0 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 2 3 1
TE Fred Davis 26 12.7 8.1 191 121 850 60 70 35 65 75 50 50 50 20 75 50 60 40 50 100
Re TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 70 6 6 3 5 7 4 5 4 2 6 4 5 2 3 8
TE Chris Cooley 30 5.4 3.1 81 47 350 25 10 25 30 10 30 5 15 35 15 30 10 40 30 40
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 34 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 2 3 1 4 3 3

General overview: Can lightning strike twice in two years? On the heels of a huge rookie season from the well-rounded Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III will attempt to do his best impression of the Carolina quarterback in 2012. While Griffin lacks the incredible girth of Newton, he does possess the track speed the league hasn’t seen from a quarterback since Vick. Just because he is sure to draw Newton and Vick comparisons from fans and media alike, I get the feeling he will not be given free rein to run at a moment’s notice like a young Vick nor will HC Mike Shanahan allow him to be the team’s goal-line back like Newton. Furthermore, no one is going to confuse Pierre Garcon for Steve Smith anytime soon. What RG3 does have, however, is perhaps the best supporting cast of the “mobile” quarterbacks mentioned so far at a similar time of their careers. Garcon’s stock is on the rise and a case could easily be made that Fred Davis is every bit the threat at tight end that Alge Crumpler was in his prime for Vick. Throw in what appears to be a reborn Santana Moss and a player that Shanahan hopes will be one day be a No. 1 receiver in Leonard Hankerson and Washington has much reason for hope. It’s a good thing for fantasy owners that RG3 is creating a buzz for the passing attack because Shanahan is doing his best job to stifle a similar enthusiasm for the running game. Even though Tim Hightower was allowed to test the free agent market and attracted scant interest, the Redskins brought him back and appear willing to start him despite the fact he graded out poorly as a receiver and pass blocker over the past three years – the same two traits that supposedly made him attractive to Washington as a trade target last year. It looks like it is going to be another fun year of playing the “I wonder who Shanahan feels like making a star this week” game with Redskin RBs.

Matchup analysis: Annually one of the most difficult positions groups to project in fantasy football, the 2012 Redskins’ running backs are off to a rousing start in terms of befuddling prognosticators once again. Shanahan has long believed that his zone-blocking system can work against any opponent, so he often has each of his runners on a very short leash since he “knows” one will eventually produce. The fact that Hightower is potentially in line to start Week 1 should mean very little since it is impossible to believe that a player less than a year removed from an ACL tear – who wasn’t all that explosive to begin with – is still a better player than Roy Helu, who thrived during the second half of the season despite some pretty major obstacles. Regardless of which RB Shanahan trots out each week, the matchups are favorable early before getting progressively harder – Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Baltimore figure to be among the most difficult. The one element that changes everything this season, however, is Griffin’s ability to break a big run off one of Shanahan’s patented rollouts. That threat alone means the outside zone runs should be almost impossible to contain for an entire game. While that part of Griffin’s game – along with his huge arm – will help Pierre Garcon, the ex-Colt will have his hands full trying to defeat the “shadow” cornerbacks he is likely to face on a regular basis this season, a list which figures to include most of the following: Cortland Finnegan, Aqib Talib, Brent Grimes, Corey Webster, Ike Taylor, Chris Gamble, Nnamdi Asomugha, Morris Claiborne, Lardarius Webb and Joe Haden. Even for a player who did so much with so little help last season, that list of potential matchups figures to keep Garcon from exploding this season. What it does mean, however, is that Santana Moss and Fred Davis should have ample opportunity to shine. Very few of the Redskins’ opponents have either a nickel cornerback that can keep up with Moss and/or a cover linebacker/safety that can match Davis’ athleticism. Assuming Davis can keep his nose clean in 2012, he should have post career highs across the board.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.