Slowly but surely, I have seen a gradual shift in regards to considering the matchups when it comes to forecasting fantasy numbers in recent years. (And no, I’m not looking for any kind of award for helping start a movement. I was hardly the first person to play fantasy football and think to myself, “Julio Jones has a lot of soft matchups around fantasy playoff time; he’d sure be a good gamble as my WR4.”) Still, I find the fantasy community is a bit hesitant to warm up to the idea of using matchups as an important part of setting their draft boards, which is ironic since every reputable fantasy site begins to post its weekly projections a few days before Week 1 and continues to do so through the Super Bowl. Some sites will offer positional strength of schedule based on last season, which can be a bit helpful but doesn’t take into account the host of personnel changes teams made during the offseason. Others simply provide a list of “players to target” based on the defenses that struggled defending that position the previous season. And the list goes on and on…

Fantasy football is a wonderful combination of several clichés, including most notably “if it can happen, it will happen” and “those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it”. I have never once claimed – or believed – that I can see the future of the NFL, but that doesn’t mean it is not worth my time to take what I do know about each team (offensively and defensively) and apply it to my fantasy predictions. For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – which I have renamed “Preseason Matchup Analysis” this year – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the fantasy playoffs as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Buccaneers and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, this method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the playoffs – a time where there is usually very little separating each of the remaining teams.

Before we dive into the first round of projections, I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport are what we like to call in the industry “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are very few matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this…here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC EAST

Matchup analysis: It will be in the Dolphins’ best interest to build their offense around the aforementioned three players (Thomas, Bush and Clay) simply because Brian Hartline cannot be expected to carry the passing game since he is primarily a deep threat. Nor can the same be expected from Davone Bess, who thrives primarily in the short passing game. And as his failed stint in New England proved, Chad Ochocinco cannot be counted to be overly productive in an offense where he is not allowed to “freelance”. Training camp will ultimately prove if promising veteran Roberto Wallace or rookies B.J. Cunningham and Jeff Fuller can crack the top three and give the quarterbacks the kind of big receivers usually featured in a West Coast offense. The matchups would be difficult for a league-average receiving corps, but figure to be brutal for Miami against some of the best cornerbacks in the game over the first half of the season. One could argue the matchups get a bit easier in the second half, but there is a strong chance the Dolphins will be ready to turn things over to Ryan Tannehill by the time December rolls around. That’s why I continue the theme of the running game since a healthier Thomas running behind a zone-blocking line should give Miami a fighting chance. Again, the first half will be challenging (especially if the Jets’ run defense improves as I believe it will), but there is enough talent here to make the case that the Dolphins can support two runners worth starting in a flex spot on a regular basis. With that said, I cannot hand out any green boxes to Bush and Thomas due to the uncertainty of their roles. The ones that have me wavering on that decision, however, are the matchups in Week 2 (Oakland), Week 6 (St. Louis) and Week 9 (Indianapolis).

Matchup analysis: For the rest of this division, there are enough difficult matchups to give fantasy owners some pause. For this offense, however, I don’t think there is a single defense in the league capable of containing this offense when Tom Brady is on his game (which is most of the time). Wes Welker is almost impossible to cover in the slot, Lloyd gives this offense a dynamic downfield receiver it hasn’t had since Randy Moss, Gaffney is one of the best third receivers in the league and we haven’t even started talking about how difficult it was for defenses to stop both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez last season (and that was without the fear of a big-play threat like Lloyd taking the top off the defense). In short, if you own one of the five New England players I just mentioned and he doesn’t have a productive fantasy week that week, chances are that it is coming the next week. I will offer one warning: the back end of the Patriots’ schedule (including all three fantasy playoff weeks) is loaded with teams that have a shot at stalling this offense for a quarter or half. I expect the running game to basically serve as a way to grab a few yards while the receivers catch their breath and run out the clock at the end of games. Ridley is the overwhelming favorite to pick up Green-Ellis’ goal-line back role and needs to be considered a strong flex option. As was the case last season with the “Law Firm”, however, there will be times Ridley will play at a fantasy RB2 level and other times where he should be on your bench. Given the sporadic playing time of Patriots’ running backs in the post-Corey Dillon era, I’m not even going to pretend to have either of those spots figured out – especially in mid-July.

Matchup analysis: As one look at the table above reveals, I have little confidence in the Jets’ passing attack, except for a three-week neutral stretch leading into the bye. If Holmes and Sanchez have truly put aside their differences and the former is focused squarely on maximizing his talent, then he has a shot at being a capable fantasy WR3 in all but the most difficult matchups. And as dynamic of a deep threat (and talent) as Hill is, counting on him to develop the route-running ability necessary to make defenses respect him in the short and intermediate passing game is a tall order in his first season. As a result, I have a difficult time suggesting this offense will click early on under the pressure the Jets will face from the likes of the Steelers, Texans and Niners. Against defenses of that caliber, less-than-perfect throws and sloppy route-running are magnified and there is little reason to believe that New York will have everyone up to speed in the offense. Considering four of the more difficult defenses on the schedule come in the first five weeks, the offense may not get on track until the second half of the season, if even then. I’m slightly more optimistic about the running game based on the simple fact the Jets will be one of the few teams running the ball 500-600 times. Since the focus of the offense will be on the run, I feel more comfortable applying green to some of their matchups because the team will almost certainly rely on the run in just about every game for as long as possible.