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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Opportunity Breeds Success - RBs
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/10/12

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

Key to the table below:

0-9% - This column represents the percentage of games in which a runner collected no more than nine touches.

0-9 - This column represents the actual number of games in which a runner collected no more than nine touches.

Note: You may sort the table by clicking on the column headers.

 Running Backs (Touches) - 2011
Rk Fant RB Tm G 0-9% 10-14% 15-19% 15+% 20+% 0-9 10-14 15-19 15+ 20+
1 1 Ray Rice BAL 16 0.0% 18.8% 12.5% 81.3% 68.8% 0 3 2 13 11
2 2 LeSean McCoy PHI 15 0.0% 13.3% 26.7% 86.7% 60.0% 0 2 4 13 9
3 3 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 16 0.0% 6.3% 18.8% 93.8% 75.0% 0 1 3 15 12
4 4 Arian Foster HOU 13 0.0% 7.7% 7.7% 92.3% 84.6% 0 1 1 12 11
5 5 Darren Sproles NO 16 43.8% 43.8% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 7 7 2 2 0
6 6 Marshawn Lynch SEA 15 6.7% 6.7% 20.0% 86.7% 66.7% 1 1 3 13 10
7 7 Ryan Mathews SD 14 7.1% 7.1% 42.9% 85.7% 42.9% 1 1 6 12 6
8 8 Michael Turner ATL 16 0.0% 18.8% 18.8% 81.3% 62.5% 0 3 3 13 10
9 9 Chris Johnson TEN 16 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% 100.0% 37.5% 0 0 10 16 6
10 10 Steven Jackson STL 15 13.3% 6.7% 13.3% 80.0% 66.7% 2 1 2 12 10
11 11 Michael Bush OAK 16 18.8% 25.0% 6.3% 56.3% 50.0% 3 4 1 9 8
12 12 Matt Forte CHI 16 43.8% 43.8% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 7 7 2 2 0
13 13 Reggie Bush MIA 16 6.3% 25.0% 43.8% 68.8% 25.0% 1 4 7 11 4
14 14 Fred Jackson BUF 10 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 90.0% 60.0% 0 1 3 9 6
15 15 Adrian Peterson MIN 12 8.3% 33.3% 8.3% 58.3% 50.0% 1 4 1 7 6
16 16 Mike Tolbert SD 15 33.3% 46.7% 6.7% 20.0% 13.3% 5 7 1 3 2
17 17 Jonathan Stewart CAR 16 25.0% 62.5% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 4 10 2 2 0
18 18 Frank Gore SF 16 12.5% 6.3% 31.3% 81.3% 50.0% 2 1 5 13 8
19 19 Shonn Greene NYJ 16 6.3% 18.8% 37.5% 75.0% 37.5% 1 3 6 12 6
20 20 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 12 8.3% 25.0% 41.7% 66.7% 25.0% 1 3 5 8 3
21 21 Pierre Thomas NO 16 31.3% 62.5% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 5 10 1 1 0
22 22 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 15 13.3% 20.0% 46.7% 66.7% 20.0% 2 3 7 10 3
23 23 Beanie Wells ARI 15 13.3% 20.0% 20.0% 66.7% 46.7% 2 3 3 10 7
24 24 Roy Helu WAS 15 53.3% 13.3% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 8 2 0 5 5
25 25 Cedric Benson CIN 15 0.0% 6.7% 60.0% 93.3% 33.3% 0 1 9 14 5
26 26 Willis McGahee DEN 15 20.0% 6.7% 33.3% 73.3% 40.0% 3 1 5 11 6
27 27 C.J. Spiller BUF 16 62.5% 0.0% 25.0% 37.5% 12.5% 10 0 4 6 2
28 28 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE 16 31.3% 25.0% 31.3% 43.8% 12.5% 5 4 5 7 2
29 29 DeAngelo Williams CAR 16 25.0% 62.5% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 4 10 2 2 0
30 30 DeMarco Murray DAL 13 46.2% 15.4% 0.0% 38.5% 38.5% 6 2 0 5 5
31 31 Dexter McCluster KC 16 43.8% 56.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7 9 0 0 0
32 32 Ben Tate HOU 15 40.0% 26.7% 6.7% 33.3% 26.7% 6 4 1 5 4
33 33 Brandon Jacobs NYG 14 50.0% 14.3% 21.4% 35.7% 14.3% 7 2 3 5 2
34 34 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ 14 57.1% 35.7% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 8 5 1 1 0
35 35 LeGarrette Blount TB 14 28.6% 28.6% 21.4% 42.9% 21.4% 4 4 3 6 3
36 36 Darren McFadden OAK 7 14.3% 0.0% 28.6% 85.7% 57.1% 1 0 2 6 4
37 37 Donald Brown IND 16 43.8% 25.0% 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 7 4 5 5 0
38 38 Toby Gerhart MIN 16 68.8% 6.3% 12.5% 25.0% 12.5% 11 1 2 4 2
39 39 Ryan Grant GB 15 46.7% 40.0% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 7 6 2 2 0
40 40 Kevin Smith DET 6 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% 83.3% 33.3% 0 1 3 5 2
41 41 Felix Jones DAL 12 33.3% 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% 33.3% 4 2 2 6 4
42 42 Jahvid Best DET 7 14.3% 42.9% 28.6% 42.9% 14.3% 1 3 2 3 1
43 43 James Starks GB 13 23.1% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 0.0% 3 5 5 5 0
44 44 Peyton Hillis CLE 10 10.0% 30.0% 10.0% 60.0% 50.0% 1 3 1 6 5
45 45 Kendall Hunter SF 16 62.5% 31.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 10 5 1 1 0
46 46 Maurice Morris DET 16 75.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 12 2 2 2 0
47 47 Mark Ingram NO 10 10.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 0.0% 1 5 4 4 0
48 48 Isaac Redman PIT 16 81.3% 6.3% 6.3% 12.5% 6.3% 13 1 1 2 1
49 49 Jackie Battle KC 15 46.7% 26.7% 20.0% 26.7% 6.7% 7 4 3 4 1
50 50 Marion Barber CHI 11 36.4% 54.5% 0.0% 9.1% 9.1% 4 6 0 1 1
51 51 Daniel Thomas MIA 13 30.8% 23.1% 30.8% 46.2% 15.4% 4 3 4 6 2
52 53 Lance Ball DEN 16 87.5% 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 6.3% 14 1 0 1 1
53 55 Chris Ogbonnaya CLE 13 69.2% 7.7% 7.7% 23.1% 15.4% 9 1 1 3 2
54 56 Danny Woodhead NE 15 86.7% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 2 0 0 0
55 57 Ricky Williams BAL 16 68.8% 25.0% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 11 4 1 1 0
56 59 Bernard Scott CIN 16 75.0% 12.5% 6.3% 12.5% 6.3% 12 2 1 2 1
57 66 Cadillac Williams STL 12 75.0% 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 8.3% 9 0 2 3 1
58 68 Tim Hightower**** WAS 5 20.0% 0.0% 40.0% 80.0% 40.0% 1 0 2 4 2
59 71 Thomas Jones KC 16 43.8% 31.3% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 7 5 4 4 0
60 73 Stevan Ridley NE 14 71.4% 21.4% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 10 3 1 1 0
61 74 Montario Hardesty CLE 10 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5 3 1 2 1
62 77 Delone Carter IND 16 68.8% 31.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11 5 0 0 0
63 78 Evan Royster WAS 6 50.0% 16.7% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 3 1 0 2 2
64 81 Keiland Williams DET 15 86.7% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13 2 0 0 0
65 82 Chris Ivory NO 6 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 1 2 3 3 0
66 87 Deji Karim JAC 12 83.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 10 1 1 1 0
67 91 Ryan Torain WAS 9 66.7% 22.2% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 6 2 1 1 0

To qualify, a running back had to appear in six games and average at least five touches per game. I “broke” the games played requirement for Hightower (denoted by the “****”) to provide a clearer picture of the Redskins’ running game last season.

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

To absolutely no one’s surprise, running backs who saw the highest percentage of 20 or more touches per game found themselves among the top 20 fantasy RBs with a great deal of regularity. Seven of the eight backs who saw 20 or more touches in at least 60% of his games finished among the top ten fantasy backs while 11 of the 13 RBs who hit that benchmarks in at least 50% of his games secured a place among the top 20 fantasy RBs. The two that did not – Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis – were limited to just 17 games combined.

After that, the news is a bit more depressing. Only two running backs – Chris Johnson (ninth) and Ryan Mathews (seventh) – fell within the top ten of the 15-19 touch range (percentage-wise) and managed a top-ten finish at his position. (Not surprisingly, both running backs are considered to be elite talents and saved their fantasy stock with high reception totals.) Ten players who collected 15-19 touches at least 25% of the time found themselves among the top 25 fantasy RBs. When the search parameters are set to identify the RBs with the highest percentage of 10-14 touch games, only Sproles grabbed a top-ten finish. What was more surprising were some of the names that posted 10-14 touch games at least 25% of the time last season – players such as Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Hillis, Reggie Bush and Michael Bush. While we have known for some time that Forte has been underutilized, it comes as a bit of a surprise that Peterson, Hillis and Reggie Bush all were included in this subset – especially when you consider each player was on a team with limited offensive firepower.

If we simply account for the backs that had the highest percentage of 15+ touch games, however, there is much reason for optimism. Once again, Sproles was the only top-ten fantasy back that did not finish among the 15 RBs who saw 15+ touches in 80% of his games. But it wasn’t just Sproles who prospered with limited touches; Forte and Jonathan Stewart each joined the Saints’ mighty mite as top 20 fantasy RBs who posted very usable fantasy numbers despite matching Sproles’ 12.5% mark in the 15+ touch category. Along with Mike Tolbert, those four running backs were the only ones to finish among the top 20 at their position in fantasy seeing fewer than 15 touches in half of their games.

At this time, I’d like to talk a bit more about Stewart, who has been Pro Football Focus’ most “elusive” back in two of his four seasons. (The “Elusive Rating” is a PFF metric based on a formula that attempts to isolate the performance of a runner by placing significant weight on yards after contact and missed tackles – numbers that a RB typically accrues independent of the blocking he receives.) I feel compelled to bring Stewart’s name up at this point because he joined teammate DeAngelo Williams and Pierre Thomas atop the list with the highest percentage of games with 10-14 touches, yet somehow managed to finish 17th overall at his position in PPR leagues. Even with fewer carries, rushing yards and touchdowns, Stewart easily outpaced his “Double Trouble” backfield mate in fantasy despite similar usage patterns (each back at four sub-10-touch contests, 10 games in which they registered 10-14 touches and two more games where they saw 15-19 touches). No one will debate there is a logjam in the Carolina backfield, but if an owner is looking for the next Michael Turner candidate in dynasty leagues (supremely talented runner operating under a glass ceiling with little wear and tear on his body), here he is. The fact he is able to maintain low-end RB2/high-end flex viability in fantasy despite his relative lack of involvement is amazing. His stock should be on the rise and if he is ever able to free himself from this committee – 2012 is the final year of his rookie contract – the case could be made that Stewart has enough talent to be a top-five fantasy back, almost regardless of the situation.

Fantasy impact: It goes without saying that you want as many 15+ touch running backs on your roster as possible. But when that well is all dried up, targeting an underutilized pass-catching RB is a solid move. In the case of Tolbert, if you can find a third-down back who also doubles as his team’s goal-line specialist for most of the season, even better.

Wide Receivers

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.