Key to the table below:
0-9% - This column represents the
percentage of games in which a runner collected no more than nine
touches.
0-9 - This column represents the
actual number of games in which a runner collected no more than
nine touches.
Note: You may sort
the table by clicking on the column headers.
To qualify, a running back had to appear in six games and
average at least five touches per game. I “broke”
the games played requirement for Hightower (denoted by the “****”)
to provide a clearer picture of the Redskins’ running game
last season.
A d v e r t i s e m e n t
To absolutely no one’s surprise, running backs who saw the highest percentage
of 20 or more touches per game found themselves among the top
20 fantasy RBs with a great deal of regularity. Seven of the eight
backs who saw 20 or more touches in at least 60% of his games
finished among the top ten fantasy backs while 11 of the 13 RBs
who hit that benchmarks in at least 50% of his games secured a
place among the top 20 fantasy RBs. The two that did not –
Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis – were limited to just
17 games combined.
After that, the news is a bit more depressing. Only two running
backs – Chris Johnson (ninth) and Ryan Mathews (seventh)
– fell within the top ten of the 15-19 touch range (percentage-wise)
and managed a top-ten finish at his position. (Not surprisingly,
both running backs are considered to be elite talents and saved
their fantasy stock with high reception totals.) Ten players who
collected 15-19 touches at least 25% of the time found themselves
among the top 25 fantasy RBs. When the search parameters are set
to identify the RBs with the highest percentage of 10-14 touch
games, only Sproles grabbed a top-ten finish. What was more surprising
were some of the names that posted 10-14 touch games at least
25% of the time last season – players such as Matt Forte,
Adrian Peterson, Hillis, Reggie Bush and Michael Bush. While we
have known for some time that Forte has been underutilized, it
comes as a bit of a surprise that Peterson, Hillis and Reggie
Bush all were included in this subset – especially when
you consider each player was on a team with limited offensive
firepower.
If we simply account for the backs that had the highest percentage
of 15+ touch games, however, there is much reason for optimism.
Once again, Sproles was the only top-ten fantasy back that did
not finish among the 15 RBs who saw 15+ touches in 80% of his
games. But it wasn’t just Sproles who prospered with limited
touches; Forte and Jonathan Stewart each joined the Saints’
mighty mite as top 20 fantasy RBs who posted very usable fantasy
numbers despite matching Sproles’ 12.5% mark in the 15+
touch category. Along with Mike Tolbert, those four running backs
were the only ones to finish among the top 20 at their position
in fantasy seeing fewer than 15 touches in half of their games.
At this time, I’d like to talk a bit more about Stewart,
who has been Pro Football Focus’ most “elusive”
back in two of his four seasons. (The “Elusive Rating”
is a PFF metric based on a formula that attempts to isolate the
performance of a runner by placing significant weight on yards
after contact and missed tackles – numbers that a RB typically
accrues independent of the blocking he receives.) I feel compelled
to bring Stewart’s name up at this point because he joined
teammate DeAngelo Williams and Pierre Thomas atop the list with
the highest percentage of games with 10-14 touches, yet somehow
managed to finish 17th overall at his position in PPR leagues.
Even with fewer carries, rushing yards and touchdowns, Stewart
easily outpaced his “Double Trouble” backfield mate
in fantasy despite similar usage patterns (each back at four sub-10-touch
contests, 10 games in which they registered 10-14 touches and
two more games where they saw 15-19 touches). No one will debate
there is a logjam in the Carolina backfield, but if an owner is
looking for the next Michael Turner candidate in dynasty leagues
(supremely talented runner operating under a glass ceiling with
little wear and tear on his body), here he is. The fact he is
able to maintain low-end RB2/high-end flex viability in fantasy
despite his relative lack of involvement is amazing. His stock
should be on the rise and if he is ever able to free himself from
this committee – 2012 is the final year of his rookie contract
– the case could be made that Stewart has enough talent
to be a top-five fantasy back, almost regardless of the situation.
Fantasy impact: It goes without
saying that you want as many 15+ touch running backs on your roster
as possible. But when that well is all dried up, targeting an
underutilized pass-catching RB is a solid move. In the case of
Tolbert, if you can find a third-down back who also doubles as
his team’s goal-line specialist for most of the season,
even better.
Wide
Receivers
Suggestions, comments,
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Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly
fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington,
D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |