Key to the table below:

0-4% - This column represents the percentage of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

0-4 - This column represents the actual number of games in which a receiver/tight end received no more than four targets.

Note: You may sort the table by clicking on the column headers.

I did not set a games played or target-average limit at wide receiver or tight end as I wanted to focus more on relevant players for the 2012 season as opposed to include 25-50 more players that may have little to no impact . Players in the next two tables with “****” after their names in the next two tables will be receivers/tight ends who failed to average five targets per game last season.

Once again, an elite-level number of consistent opportunities (8+) pretty much identified the majority of players who finished among the top 10 at their position. Of the 11 receivers (in this study) that collected eight or more targets in at least two-thirds of their games, seven finished among the top 14 fantasy receivers. Some combination of a revolving door at quarterback (Brandon Lloyd, Santana Moss), expected regression due to questionable work ethic (Mike Williams) and injury (Kenny Britt) conspired to keep each of the four “exceptions” from finishing any higher.

Much like we touched on with running backs, if a receiver isn’t seeing a near-elite number of opportunities, he had better make up for it by being elite in another area, such as being a prolific deep threat. Lo and behold, the three top 10 fantasy receivers who failed to meet the criteria in the paragraph above (eight or more targets in at least two-thirds of their games) all were among the league’s most dangerous big-play artists in 2011: Mike Wallace, Jordy Nelson and Steve Smith. As a whole, however, there wasn’t a great deal of high-ranking fantasy receivers that ended the season with 5-7 targets in at least a third of their games or more. Using that criteria and based on a 12-team league that requires three starters at WR (taking the top 36 fantasy receivers, in other words), only half (18) of them were able to finish in the top 36 at their position in fantasy.

Amazingly, an incredible 41 receivers managed to secure five or more targets in at least 75% of their games last season. Of that group, only six finished outside of the top 41 fantasy receivers. Once again, it isn’t difficult to understand why Greg Little, Moss, Mario Manningham, Andre Roberts, Austin Collie and Denarius Moore found themselves on the outside looking in. Little played in a terrible offense with a weak-armed quarterback and anemic running game. Moss missed four games and probably wasn’t helped by the combination of John Beck and Rex Grossman. Manningham was relegated to the “clearout” receiver role with the emergence of Victor Cruz and didn’t take advantage of all the deep-ball opportunities he had in 2011 (which I discussed at length last season). Roberts was caught in a time share with Early Doucet and lost out to his more physical teammate in the red zone. Collie was certainly not in a position to succeed with a carousel of mediocre quarterbacks while Moore struggled to stay healthy and had Carson Palmer throwing him the ball for only half the season.

Not surprisingly, only Nelson and Robinson overcame their significant lack of consistent targets to excel in fantasy last year. Robinson (who saw four or less targets in 35.7% of his games) and Nelson (31.3%) were the only two receivers that managed a top-20 finish with over 30% of their games being in the 0-4 target range. While Robinson should be able to improve on his 2011 numbers as the likely WR1 in Jacksonville despite the expected drop-off in quarterback play, Nelson is a prime candidate for a significant drop-off for any number of reasons, such as the likely bounce-back year from Jermichael Finley and the continued expansion of Randall Cobb’s role in the offense. As good of an all-around receiver as Nelson is, some of his peripherals were off the charts. Let’s examine:

For example, 22.06% of Nelson’s catches went for touchdowns last year. To give that number some perspective, I can find only three other instances since 2008 in which a receiver turned over 20% of his catches into touchdowns and one of them was Robinson (20.37%). In the other two instances (Dwayne Bowe, 2010 and Robert Meachem, 2009), neither receiver came anywhere close to repeating that pace the following year. In Bowe’s case, he went from the best rate among qualified receivers in the league (20.83% in 2010) to one of the worst (6.17 in 2011), although no one will argue that Tyler Palko did not help his cause. On the other hand, Meachem has an elite quarterback – like Nelson – and made his living on deep throws that went for scores in 2009 (20%). In 2010, that rate dropped almost by almost half to 11.36% Furthermore, Nelson also caught 71.4% of passes thrown over 20 yards down the field (per Pro Football Focus), which was the best percentage PFF has recorded since they began tracking that stat in 2008. To put that number into even more perspective, Larry Fitzgerald caught exactly two-thirds of the deep balls thrown his way during his career-best 2008 season and Nelson topped that mark by more than 5%. If you are one of those owners who believe a player can follow up a career year with a similar one, go ahead and draft Nelson based off his 2011 numbers. History suggests that his 18.6 YPC (more than four YPC higher than his previous career high) and touchdown totals will drop precipitously, so I will be drafting him as top-end fantasy WR2 and expecting something closer to 7-8 TDs.

Fantasy impact: Not surprisingly, you stand a pretty good chance at being competitive at the receiver position as long as you can grab at least one receiver who sees eight-plus targets per game in about 70% of his games. As discussed above, the best deep threats in the game can get away with fewer targets, but they obviously run the risk of being somewhat inconsistent if that is their only function in the offense. As it has been for some time now, drafting a receiver tied to an elite quarterback is the smart play because they are the best bet to provide “quality targets”. Look no further than players like Little and Lloyd – players who could have easily seen a huge bump in their final numbers with better quarterback play since they saw five-plus targets in 15 and 13 of their games last year, respectively.

Tight Ends

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me or follow me on Twitter.