As the Denver-Dallas game played out to its riveting end last Sunday,
I paused to consider if 51-48 is what the folks in the league office
had in mind when they decided to invoke all their safety measures
and give the fans what they asked for – more scoring. Little
did I know at the time that injuries would rear their ugly head
yet again.
While Dallas served as the home of a fantasy-point explosion
last Sunday, Atlanta has quickly become the home of much pain
and suffering. We’ve known for some time that Roddy White
was going to be limited, but that was a reality most of us had
accepted no later than Week 2, which is the same time Steven Jackson
left his fantasy owners in a bind with a hamstring injury. Tony
Gonzalez got off to a terribly slow start, but has rewarded his
patient owners with back-to-back stellar games despite drawing
an incredible amount of attention – especially at the goal
line. The one unaffected piece of the Falcons’ offensive
puzzle had been Julio Jones, who was among the best players in
fantasy through five weeks despite fighting through a knee injury
that had dogged him for most of the season and hindered his ability
to practice.
As most of us found out on Tuesday, Jones will be lost for the
season due to a foot injury, reportedly breaking the screw in
the same foot (right) that he had surgery on following the NFL
Combine leading up to the 2011 draft. Adding insult to injury,
White injured a hamstring against the New York Jets and his status
is in question for Week 7 because of it (not the much-publicized
high-ankle sprain), even after the Falcons come off their bye
this week. Although he wasn’t exactly tearing up the Jets before
the injury, White was playing nearly every snap and possibly on
his way to matching his one – if not both – of his season totals
(10 catches, 84 yards) entering the contest.
At least Atlanta can say its suffering is mostly physical. In
Houston, it is both physical and psychological. For all intents
and purposes, Owen Daniels escaped Week 5 with no issues whatsoever
and led the Texans with six catches for 60 yards. Around the middle
of the day on Monday, HC Gary Kubiak revealed his starting tight
end had “soreness” in his leg and that he would undergo
tests. By Monday night, the team was worried he could miss “a
few weeks”. On Tuesday, he was diagnosed with a “non-displaced
fibula fracture” and given a 4-6 week timeline. On Wednesday,
he was placed on injured reserve/designated to return list, meaning
he is out a minimum of eight weeks.
Matt Schaub broke a NFL record by throwing a pick-six for the
fourth consecutive game in last week’s loss to the San Francisco
49ers. Schaub has thrown at least one interception in eight consecutive
games for a team that is among the best in the league at running
the ball and playing pretty good defense (No. 1 in total defense
at 260.2 yards per game, nearly 40 fewer than the second-ranked
Jets). We don’t have any reason to believe Calvin Johnson’s
knee injury is serious, but we also had no reason to believe he
was in any danger of missing a game at this point last week either.
Depending on the source, Michael Vick is either a possibility
to start this week or a lock to miss multiple weeks.
Weeks like this one should remind fantasy owners that building
a team is a continuous job that officially starts when you draft
your team and doesn’t end until the league championship
has been decided. In short, owners that have two reliable –
if not elite – options at running back or receiver need
to constantly be thinking about how to land a third. Injuries
will strike and fantasy teams that pull off trades while the iron
is still hot off a breakout performance (like Alshon Jeffery,
who is a good hold or sell right now, depending on what you can
get in return) to build depth in a potential problem area are
likely doing themselves a big favor.
As I have said in this area a time or two over the years, injuries
create “ripple effects” in the way each team attacks
an opponent and, by extension, the value of their teammates in
fantasy. Because Atlanta and Houston are two fairly big fishes
in the fantasy football pond, it makes sense to evaluate the new
fantasy reality in both of those cities.
QB Matt Ryan's fantasy value takes a hit
until Roddy White gets back to being 100% healthy.
Matt
Ryan – Given all the depth-chart chaos in Atlanta,
it could be argued that Ryan is playing as well as he ever has
– at least in fantasy – with two touchdown passes in every contest
and four 300-yard game to his credit. But let’s be real: the loss
of Jones pretty much takes Ryan off the high-end QB1 pedestal
and makes him more of a borderline weekly starter, at least until
White is 100% healthy. Since there is no certainty White will
be healthy anytime soon, owners with strong quarterback depth
should seek out the Ryan owner in their league. (But you knew
that already…) I’m recommending that – depending on your roster
dynamic – you make Ryan a priority in the trade back. Why? At
the very least, Ryan has missed two games over his first five
years and is a quarterback that will probably be spending a lot
of time in catch-up mode. And there is upside: if White gets healthy,
there is no reason why can’t post the serviceable QB1 numbers
he posted prior to the arrival of Jones.
Steven
Jackson – Perhaps the player that sees the smallest
amount of fantasy decline in White’s absence – because no Falcon
will benefit – is Jackson, who will almost be forced into heavy
workloads once he is cleared to return. The Falcons’ offensive
line is among the worst in the league and doesn’t figure to improve
in 2013, but Jackson’s ability as to extend drives and catch the
ball out of the backfield will be important to Atlanta going forward.
It is also very likely he will be used as much, if not more, as
a receiver out in the flat and in the screen game than the team
intended upon his signing.
Jacquizz
Rodgers – The natural reaction to Jackson’s return
will be to drop Rodgers, but I’m not so sure that is the prudent
move – assuming OC Dirk Koetter is willing to think outside the
box. While Rodgers can’t exactly evolve into a slot receiver over
the remaining 12 weeks of the regular season, the Falcons could
use him as a “satellite back” to help fill the huge reception
void left behind by Jones. In fact, I’m not sure Atlanta has much
of a choice but to use Rodgers in that fashion because Gonzalez
isn’t going to be the target for 15 of Ryan’s 43.6 pass attempts
(Ryan’s average through five games) every week. Rodgers should
maintain low-end flex appeal in 12-team leagues as a result upon
Jackson’s return.
Roddy
White – At this point, it doesn’t make a lot of sense
to speculate on White going forward because we have yet to see
him at anything close to 100%. If he gets to that point sometime
during the season, it would not be surprising if he posted top-10
receiver numbers and re-emerged as the dominant force he was prior
to Jones’ arrival. However, we are at least 2-3 weeks away from
that and probably more.
Harry
Douglas – The de facto top wide receiver in Atlanta
for as long as Jones and White are out, Douglas has always had
the talent to be a serviceable receiver in the league. He will
be pressed into top-dog status in all likelihood in Week 7 – if
not beyond – and will see a much steadier stream of targets than
he ever has over his five-year NFL career. As a non-featured part
of the passing game for much of that time, the Falcons have never
really needed to cater their gameplan around what Douglas does
well on a consistent basis. Douglas needs to be on just about
every fantasy roster for the foreseeable future, although he’s
going to be stretched as anything more than a low-end WR3 when
White is out and low-end WR4 when White is healthy.
Drew
Davis/Kevin
Cone – Barring an injury to Douglas, it is hard to
believe either back-end receiver will find their way onto most
fantasy rosters. I’ll give a slight edge to Davis in that battle
as he has caught my eye more in limited action (preseason and
regular season) than Cone.
Levine
Toilolo – Tony Gonzalez will undoubtedly take over
as Ryan’s top target – at least until White is all the way back
– but one reason why I think Jackson will have some success is
due to the likely continued development of Toilolo. Offensive
line struggles usually result in more tight end-heavy packages
and given the current state of the Falcons’ skill-position players,
they may not have much of a choice. Toilolo hasn’t exactly made
his mark yet as a run-blocker, but the likelihood of two tight-end
sets will help secure the edge for Jackson and probably lead to
more snaps for the rookie outside the 20. The Stanford alum has
caught two short TD passes over the last three weeks and is a
huge man (6-8, 265 pounds) that has the chops to be a dependable
safety valve for Ryan. While I doubt he establishes any considerable
redraft value in 2013, it is clear that his quarterback already
has a fair amount of trust in him in the red zone.
Matt
Schaub – As much as some Texans fans want a change
at quarterback, there really is no viable alternative to Schaub
in Houston – and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Let’s remember
that on a run-dominated team over the past three seasons (basically
since the emergence of Arian Foster), Schaub has basically averaged
1.5 passing touchdowns. Over that same time, he has thrown for
over 4,000 yards twice and, perhaps most importantly, 12 or fewer
interceptions each season. Schaub hasn’t lost “it”, but defenses
are baiting him into certain throws and he isn’t showing the veteran
savvy right now to avoid them. Along the same lines, San Francisco
showed it was paying attention in the film room because all three
Schaub interceptions were made on plays by a defender that either
ran the route better than the receiver or picked up a tendency
based on a formation, which means Kubiak and his staff could help
their quarterback by self-scouting a bit better. Schaub is going
to have his chance to get it right against St. Louis this week
before a Week 7 showdown against Kansas City.
Garrett
Graham – Perhaps I’m in the minority here, but it would
not surprise me if the temporary loss of Daniels actually helps
the offense in the long term. (Please note that I did not say
Daniels’ loss will make the team better.) First off, Graham has
already proven he can be productive in limited action and is probably
more fluid than Daniels, so he could easily step into his production.
Kubiak gives his quarterbacks more “easy” throws that just about
any offense in the league with the way his teams sell the run
on play-action and rollout passes. Graham is a better athlete
than Daniels at this point of his career, so it isn’t unthinkable
more Graham could mean a few more “chunk” plays.
DeAndre
Hopkins/Keshawn
Martin – For a player Kubiak compared to Rod Smith
in the offseason, it seems odd that he and/or Schaub haven’t allowed
Hopkins to “rent space in the defense’s mind” in much the same
way the Chicago Bears have with Jeffery (someone to punish defenses
for paying too much attention to Brandon Marshall). Part of the
reason defenses have been able to get a bead on Schaub’s throws
lately is because Andre Johnson and Daniels always appear to be
the only reads. Hopkins has the ability to snatch the ball in
mid-air down the field, which is yet another element of the game
that has been missing in Houston’s passing offense. Either way,
Hopkins could be the one player besides Graham who sees his fantasy
stock increase with Daniels out. Martin is currently battling
a shoulder injury and did not see a great deal of time earlier
in the season thanks to the plethora of two tight-end formations
Houston ran with a healthy Daniels, but the Texans could use many
more three-wide sets because it seems unlikely raw rookie Ryan
Griffin will play a key role as he continues to adjust to
the NFL. Martin is an explosive player on an offense that needs
that element, so perhaps he’ll force his way into more snaps over
the next eight weeks.
___________
One of the many benefits to watching all the games on NFL Game
Rewind is to be able to identify the player – particularly
cornerbacks – who are struggling or simply getting torched
by opposing receivers. While the FF
Today points allowed tool is helpful in determining if a team’s
receivers is likely to have success in a given week, it cannot
account for likely individual matchups. This week, I’m going
to focus on a few cornerbacks that have been victimized the most
in my game study and what it means for the near future in fantasy.
Notes:
*Each NFL QB rating the cornerback has allowed is courtesy of
Pro Football Focus.
*Each cornerback has seen at least 50% of his team’s defensive
snaps. Remember, 158.3 is a perfect QB rating.
*Receivers in italics are likely regular starters in 12-team,
three-receiver leagues.
Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins,
St. Louis – What was thought to be a daunting matchup
for receivers at the beginning of the season has been anything
but. Through five games, Finnegan has graded out as PFF’s
worst cornerback by a large margin while Jenkins has been better,
but not substantially so.
NFL QB Rating: Finnegan –
158.3, Jenkins – 112.4
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins
Week 7: Steve Smith/Brandon LaFell/Ted Ginn
Week 8: Golden Tate/Sidney Rice
Week 9: Nate Washington/Kendall Wright/Kenny Britt/Damian Williams
Week 10: Reggie Wayne/T.Y. Hilton/Darrius Heyward-Bey
Robert McClain, Atlanta (Slot corner)
– McClain hasn’t exactly faced a who’s
who of slot receivers – Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Brandon
Gibson, Julian Edelman and Jeremy Kerley are among them –
and has been extremely poor in 2013 after being something of a
revelation last season.
NFL QB Rating: 145.4
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: bye
Week 7: Vincent Jackson/Russell Shepard/Tiquan Underwood
Week 8: Larry Fitzgerald/Andre Roberts
Week 9: Brandon LaFell
Week 10: Doug Baldwin
Justin Rogers, Buffalo –
To be fair, Rogers was pressed into a starter’s role when
2012 second-half rookie sensation Stephon Gilmore went down with
a wrist injury in the preseason. He has been burned for touchdowns
by the likes of Ted Ginn, Santonio Holmes, Torrey Smith and Marlon
Brown. Gilmore was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but
one would have to imagine he will probably need at least two weeks
before he can handle a full game’s worth of snaps.
NFL QB Rating: 142.3
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: A.J. Green
Week 7: Mike Wallace
Derek Cox and Johnny Patrick, San
Diego – Without being too general, every Charger
cornerback (including Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall) has
surrendered a passer rating of at least 111.3, so fantasy owners
can feel safe about just about every fantasy-relevant receiver
they have going against the Chargers’ defense.
NFL QB Rating: Cox – 127.8, Jenkins – 111.3
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Reggie Wayne/T.Y. Hilton/Darrius Heyward-Bey
Week 7: Cecil Shorts/Justin Blackmon
Week 8: bye
Week 9: Pierre Garcon/Leonard Hankerson
Week 10: Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker/Wes Welker
Mike Jenkins, Oakland –
Unlike McClain, Rogers and Cox, Jenkins hasn’t exactly been
burned for touchdowns (the only he was charged with was Maurice
Jones-Drew’s score in Week 2). However, 15 of the 21 balls
thrown into his coverage have been completed for 227 yards.
NFL QB Rating: 122.5
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Dwayne Bowe
Week 7: bye
Week 8: Emmanuel Sanders
Week 9: DeSean Jackson
Week 10: Hakeem Nicks/Rueben Randle
Alan Ball, Jacksonville –
Ball hasn’t exactly seen a lot of targets (12) or given
up many touchdowns (one), but quarterbacks are completing 75%
of their passes in his coverage. Expect those numbers to increase
dramatically in the coming weeks.
NFL QB Rating: 122.2
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Demaryius Thomas
Week 7: Keenan Allen
Week 8: Anquan Boldin
Week 9: bye
Week 10: Kenny Britt/Damian Williams
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Denver
– DRC has actually held up well for the most part,
but he got roughed up in the Mile High Shootout last Sunday, giving
up touchdowns to Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley. If there was a corner
of this bunch that I would say is a victim of small sample size
right now, it would be him.
NFL QB Rating: 117.0
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Justin Blackmon
Week 7: T.Y. Hilton/Darrius Heyward-Bey
Week 8: Leonard Hankerson
Week 9: bye
Week 10: Vincent Brown
Chris
Owens, Cleveland – Joe Haden (60.1 QB rating)
and Buster Skrine (68.1) have actually performed very well to
this point and played more snaps than Owens, but he is the third
corner and bumps Skrine into the slot in three-receiver sets.
At any rate, he has played significantly less snaps since Miami
abused him in Week 1.
NFL QB Rating: 115.4
Likely upcoming matchups
Week 6: Ryan Broyles
Week 7: James Jones
Week 8: Donnie Avery
Week 9: Torrey Smith
Week 10: bye
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |