Anyone that has played fantasy football for any length of time understands
there is a certain level of anguish we are willing to put ourselves
through each fall and winter. On one hand, a person trying to attain
something they want should expect some level of adversity. On the
other hand, attempting to set a competitive lineup each week around
midseason becomes a real challenge when bye weeks compromise a third
of your roster and injuries strike at the worst possible time, leaving
a team operating with limited bench space even weaker than you could
have anticipated.
Injuries are a part of every sport and football is easily the
worst offender of the major sports, so it goes without saying
that winning a fantasy title is sometimes as much about being
the owner who handled adversity the best as it is about being
one who drafted the best team. In a season that seems to have
delivered enough high-profile injuries, Week 7 was particularly
bad for some significant fantasy players and likely affected at
least one – if not several – of your teams.
Jay Cutler (torn groin, out at least
four weeks) – This was supposed to be the year when
Cutler put it all together. New HC Marc Trestman’s quick-hitting
offense combined with offensive line and skill-position upgrades
was working wonders for Cutler, who had been sacked only nine
times through the first six games. He was on pace for one of the
best seasons of his career in a contract year. Josh McCown cannot
be expected to pick up where Cutler left off, but owners shouldn’t
be surprised if Trestman is able to coax steady QB2 numbers out
of him. Owners of Matt Forte or any of the main receivers/tight
ends (Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett)
should expect to take a slight hit to their players’ fantasy
numbers, but not so much so where owners should bail.
Sam Bradford (torn ACL, out for the
season) – Owners were lukewarm in regards to Bradford
prior to his injury, probably due in part to his injury history
as well as the Rams’ move to a balanced offensive attack
over the last month. Unlike some of the other players I will mention
in this section, Bradford’s loss figures to close the book
on whatever value was left in the passing game. New starter Kellen
Clemens has enjoyed a moment or two of success in the NFL, but
he’s easily one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
(In my opinion, there’s no doubt recent signee Austin Davis
is a much better option.) Perhaps he latches onto Austin Pettis
or Tavon Austin as his go-to receiver, but most owners should
be able to part ways with Pettis, Austin, Chris Givens and/or
Jared Cook in the coming weeks if they haven’t done so already
in redraft leagues.
Doug Martin: A return to the field is possible
but a return to RB1 status is unlikely.
Doug
Martin (torn labrum, out indefinitely – although a 4-6 week
return is likely) – A victim of the sinking Bucs’ ship,
Martin insists he will return at some point this season. And based
on some research I’ve done, the 4-6 week timetable is very possible
because his injury is not as devastating to a running back as
it would be for a quarterback. While Martin hasn’t been nearly
as disappointing as some would suggest, there’s no arguing the
Bucs never found a way to make defenses pay for showing too much
attention to him. It probably goes without saying if/when Martin
comes back, owners should not expect him to return to the heavy
workload he had through his first five full games. Some potential
positives as a result of this situation: 1) his dynasty value
figures to come down and 2) HC Greg Schiano will likely be fired
and the new coach will inherit an offense with a boatload of talent.
Mike
James, who will replace Martin, is probably capable of matching
Martin’s 2013 production, if only because defenses will probably
spend less time worrying about the run and more time containing
Vincent Jackson.
Reggie Wayne (torn ACL, out for the
season) – Wayne is probably the toughest player on
this list for his PPR owners to replace because he has delivered
consistent WR2 numbers all season long; his loss was particularly
shocking because he hasn’t missed a game since 2001. Wayne’s
absence obviously drives Andrew Luck’s fantasy stock down
a bit, but it could open the door for Darrius Heyward-Bey to fulfill
his vast potential. While Wayne’s injury cannot be viewed
as a blessing in disguise, the Colts now have ample opportunity
this season to prepare for life after Wayne while also competing
for an AFC South title. They also have enough in-house talent
at receiver to stabilize Luck’s fantasy value, even if it
is immature and needs to be developed. GM Ryan Grigson has also
established himself as an aggressive executive, so a trade cannot
be ruled out even though the Colts have already dealt some of
their 2014 draft picks. For now, T.Y. Hilton should become a much
more dependable fantasy WR2, DHB has a shot at WR3 value and LaVon
Brazill or a couple of practice-squad candidates I’ll discuss
below will have a golden opportunity to become a second-half star.
Jermichael Finley (bruised spinal
cord, out indefinitely) – Few injuries require a
visit to the intensive care unit, so “out indefinitely”
in this case could mean he is back before the end of the season
or could force him to retire in a worst-case scenario. (Ravens
LB Jameel McClain suffered a similar injury last December and
did not return to the field until this past week.) The Packers
will move forward with blocking TE Andrew Quarless and former
basketball player Brandon Bostick, but they will likely lean even
more heavily on the running game than they were already. With
Jordy Nelson and James Jones (when he returns from his own injury)
basically locked into starting roles for the foreseeable future,
they should be in fantasy lineups every week. The same can probably
be said for Jarrett Boykin as well.
Unlike the daily news, there is some good news to report:
- The extra time off from last Thursday’s game has reportedly
been very good for Larry Fitzgerald’s ailing hamstring.
With a bye coming up in Week 9, the Cardinals could choose to
manage his snaps this week in order to let him come back as healthy
as possible for the second half. We are all well aware of his
fantasy upside when healthy, so I’d be more willing to buy
at 75-80 cents on the dollar rather than sell at that amount with
a handful of solid upcoming matchups.
- Percy Harvin’s recovery from hip surgery has been swift
and remarkable, which basically sums up how he reportedly looked
on the practice field earlier this week. He could be back in time
for Monday Night Football this week, but owners should watch him
first, count their blessings that he made it back so quickly and
hope he is ready to recapture top-20 WR form over the next 2-3
weeks.
- Jonathan Stewart admitted to “discomfort” in one
of his surgically-repaired ankles as recently as a week ago, but
he’s on track for a Week 9 return. As one should expect
with a player that has been out so long, Carolina will ease him
into game action. With that said, he is the most-talented back
in the Panthers’ backfield and could eventually assume the
value DeAngelo Williams currently has in time for the fantasy
playoffs.
______________________
This week, I chose to revisit the past. After taking a year off
from targets and touches, it is back by popular demand – at
least for one week.
The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets
per game. I chose to leave in some noteworthy players who failed
to miss the cut to provide some context (such as the void Wayne
leaves in the Colts’ offense) or because the player should
qualify in relatively short order.
Steven Jackson’s owners – especially those in PPR leagues
– who have been tracking the usage numbers for Jacquizz Rodgers
since the ex-Ram suffered his hamstring injury in Week 2 have to
be thrilled about his likely return to the field this week. After
the Falcons ease Jackson back in this week, he should be expected
to step back into 61.5% of the snaps that Rodgers assumed during
the four full games he missed. With Atlanta in desperate need of
players to take attention away from the injury-ravaged receiving
corps, Rodgers collected 24 catches in the four-plus games Jackson
missed. Rodgers actually thrived a bit in fantasy during his absence
and probably earned himself a more substantial role in the offense,
but also proved at the same time he is not a viable long-term replacement
for Jackson. While both are very capable receivers, Jackson is a
legitimate red-zone threat as a runner as well. Jackson has a string
of four particularly daunting fantasy matchups coming up, but is
set up for success for the remainder of the fantasy season –
particularly if he steps back into a 20-touch capacity and can stay
healthy.
Ryan Mathews has gone over 100 total yards in three of his last
four games (with the exception being the Week 5 game against Oakland
in which he left with a concussion after three carries). If ever
there was a time to move Mathews in a trade, now may be that time.
Why? For the most part, he has become a situational back who will
see the majority of his snaps on running downs and, to a lesser
extent, end-of-game situations in which the Chargers are trying
to hold a late lead. While he converted a 3-yard touchdown in
last week’s win, he has been vultured three times by Danny
Woodhead and Ronnie Brown inside the 5 and has seven receptions
all season long, which means his current level of production probably
isn’t sustainable. Assuming he remains in the coaching staff’s
good graces and avoids the mind-numbing mistakes he made in Week
6 against the Colts (running out-of-bounds twice late in the game
as San Diego was trying to run clock), Mathews should be a viable
flex play going forward. However, one look at the upcoming schedule
suggests San Diego may need to throw a lot and that obviously
favors Woodhead. Move Mathews along to a running back-needy owner
while you still can; there should be at least one or two owners
in your league that desperately need a warm body at that position.
Part of the “fun” with fantasy football is tracking the odd usage
patterns of running backs. Chris
Ivory and Andre Ellington were probably the two backs that
epitomized that better than anyone else last week. Ivory’s 35
touches against the Patriots were one more than he had over his
first five games combined. It is not a surprise that Ivory found
a way to cut into Bilal Powell’s snaps – it has been stated many
times and in many places that Powell is an average talent – but
there’s little to no evidence to support the notion that a “rusty”
Ivory is: 1) better on his 30th carry than Powell would be on
his fifth or 10th carry and 2) more likely to hold up for an entire
season when his 35-touch day followed three straight games of
four touches. As far as Ellington is concerned, it is understandable
why HC Bruce Arians views him as a 30-32 snap/game back. What
doesn’t make a lot of sense, however, is how the rookie managed
only five touches in a Week 7 game against Seattle in which Arizona
could not run the ball and had Larry Fitzgerald operating at far
less than 100%. In fact, it could be argued Ellington was the
one matchup advantage the Cardinals enjoyed against the Seahawks.
After watching each of his touches in last week’s relief
effort against the Falcons, it became clear why Mike James is
a backup running back. While that statement is dripping with negativity,
the only reason I make the comment is because he lacks explosiveness.
He can make a move or two, showed the vision and decisiveness
necessary to get what was blocked and caught every pass thrown
in his direction, which is about as much as coaches can ask for
out of a rookie running back drafted in the sixth round. As most
of us already know, any back with access to 15-20 touches per
week is worthy of a spot on a fantasy roster. However, it is difficult
to imagine James enjoying much success against Carolina (Week
8), at Seattle (Week 9) or versus Miami (Week 10). Based on the
research I mentioned above, there is reason to believe he could
return after that unenviable three-game set. In short, if you
land James and don’t own Martin, do it so you can leverage
a trade with the Martin owner in your league. James is a sustaining
kind of back, not one that should be expected to put up anything
more than low-end flex production.
I think it is particularly noteworthy that Vincent
Jackson is tied with A.J.
Green for the league lead in targets despite having played one
less game. Perhaps more impressively, Jackson has 47 targets in
the three games Mike Glennon has been his quarterback – three more
than the combined total of the four Tampa Bay players who ranks
second through fifth on that list.
Whether some people want to recognize buy-low or sell-high opportunities
over the course of the season is their prerogative, but savvy
owners in competitive leagues owe it to themselves to test the
market. “Playing the game” – as I like to call it – has led to
my ability to acquire Brandon
Marshall and Drew Brees in separate leagues and has greatly
contributed to my ability to stay in contention despite some poor
luck in terms of the schedule and injuries. Another player that
may come cheaper than he did two weeks ago is Torrey
Smith, who has posted back-to-back single-digit fantasy point
efforts and is heading into a bye this week. As I outlined during
my PMA series, Smith didn’t figure to take the world by storm
with a brutal first-half slate. While he did post 629 yards, he
only scored once in Baltimore’s first seven games. That knowledge
– along with his fantasy totals against “cloud” coverage versus
Green Bay and Pittsburgh’s Ike Taylor last week – may have his
owners a bit frightened that defenses have “caught up” with Smith.
Just like any investment, there is some risk involved because
Baltimore’s running game has been so pathetic that more teams
may opt to use cloud coverage against Smith. The fact of the matter,
however, is that Smith’s second half should be even better than
his first. Primary matchups against Joe Haden, Taylor, Charles
Tillman and Aqib Talib await Smith over the final eight games
of his fantasy season, but he has proved his ability to post solid
numbers against Haden already. Tillman has battled injuries all
season and Talib is more physical than fast, which plays into
Smith’s hands if Baltimore simply chooses to send him in motion
or use him in bunch formations to avoid press coverage.
Many people expect T.Y.
Hilton to become an every-down player in the wake of the season-ending
injury to Reggie
Wayne. While there is a strong possibility that will be the
case, a closer look at Hilton’s target numbers reveals he was
already receiving Wayne-like opportunities over the last month
(36-34) and the Colts have been hesitant to overwork their 5-10,
183-pound wideout. Heyward-Bey saw a season-high seven targets
last week, but can we really count on the coaching staff to draw
up a gameplan that revolves around his strengths (such as run-after-catch)
and less to the team’s desire to be a ground-and-pound offense
when the offensive line lacks the horses to make it happen? Or
does the team get rewarded for sticking with LaVon
Brazill through his season-opening four-game suspension? Brazill
has the speed to make splash plays like Hilton, although it is
a stretch to say he could come anywhere close to emulating his
success. Another wild-card is undrafted rookie free agent Da’Rick
Rogers (who was let go by Buffalo earlier this summer) and Griff
Whalen (who played with Andrew Luck at Stanford). Of the three,
Whalen probably has the most going for him given his familiarity
with Luck and the offensive system, not to mention reliability
(hands as well as no character red flags). Rogers’ talent belongs
in the league, but teams have been justifiably cool on trusting
him given his background. All we know for now is that Brazill
has the inside track for significantly more snaps and – as we
saw last week with Jarrett
Boykin – when a receiver has an opportunity to garner playing
time, he is very capable of posting solid fantasy numbers when
operating with a top-of-the-line NFL starting quarterback.
Kendall Wright may be the most underrated PPR receiver in fantasy.
Since Week 1, Wright has managed at least five catches and 54
yards in every game. It was understandable why he was available
on waivers when he entered the season behind Kenny Britt and Nate
Washington and even more so after an Opening Week dud, but receivers
that consistently post double-digit fantasy totals – even
if they aren’t eye-popping – are hard to come by;
his consistency explains why he currently ranks 23rd at his position.
At this point, it is hard to tell if substantial improvement by
the running game – which is likely given the Titans’
remaining schedule – will lead to more touchdown opportunities
for him or not. Either way, it is notable whenever a receiver
on any team – much less a running team – draws eight
or more targets in four consecutive weeks. Further consider that
Tennessee’s last three opponents were Kansas City, Seattle
and San Francisco – a pretty long stretch of formidable
pass defenses – and Wright still managed 20 catches for
241 yards. The Titans won’t pass the ball enough down the
stretch for Wright to become the 2013 version of Cecil Shorts,
but he is set up for a lot of success after this week’s
bye with no opponents that compare to the defenses he has seen
lately. As a fearless receiver with deep speed and an increasing
number of targets, he warrants a spot in every league regardless
of format and should be considered a strong WR3 with WR2 upside.
One of the harder-to-believe contracts handed out to a free agent
last spring was the one Miami gave Brandon
Gibson. But while Mike Wallace (50 percent catch rate) and
Brian
Hartline (60.8%) draw the majority of defensive attention
on the outside, few receivers boast the catch rate of Gibson,
who has receptions on 70.7% (29-of-41) of his targets. (For some
perspective, Wes
Welker’s catch rate stands at 71%.) Gibson is hardly a special
talent, but he’s doing enough to warrant a bench spot in most
leagues. While a repeat of his two-score effort last week is highly
unlikely, he has eight targets in three of his last four games
and is typically one of the two receivers closest to Ryan Tannehill.
It is something to remember because Tannehill operates behind
a line that has surrendered 26 sacks. In other words, Gibson is
working in some prime real estate until Miami solves its pass-protection
issues.
Jimmy
Graham (9.8) and Jordan
Cameron (9.0) are the only two consistently healthy tight
ends averaging at least nine targets, but I have a bad feeling
Cameron is about to take a bit of a hit when it comes to fantasy
value. For those of you who have tracked Cameron’s production
(or watched Browns’ games since Brandon Weeden “reclaimed” the
starting job), it will come as no surprise that Cameron mustered
most of his production in garbage time over the last two games.
While fantasy points are created equal regardless of when they
are scored, it is a bit concerning that was the only time he was
truly a big part of the offensive attack. I suppose the argument
can be made the switch to Jason Campbell can’t hurt an offense
whose quarterback was completing only 52.8% of his passes, but
my lasting image of Campbell was basically rendering every one
of the Bears’ offensive players ineffective last season. I suppose
Campbell could one-up Weeden by starting garbage time a bit earlier
and make his living by hitting Cameron on the same five-yard drag
patterns that helped boost the tight end’s fantasy numbers last
week, but I can’t imagine Campbell’s presence being a good thing
for Cameron. Either way, it’s been a while since I’ve seen Campbell
push the ball down the field with any sort of effectiveness, which
takes away the strengths of both Josh Gordon and Cameron. In the
one money league in which I have played Cameron all season, I
will now turn to Jordan
Reed for the foreseeable future.
For those of you who took the Tim
Wright plunge last week, it wasn’t a one-week recommendation.
The undrafted rookie free agent saw a season-high 45 (out of 86)
snaps last week, staying right in line with the same percentage
of snaps (52%) that he has seen since he began to see regular
playing time in Week 3. Obviously, the two-catch, three-target
performance wasn’t what I (or anyone else that rolled with him)
expected, but he is clearly the passing-down tight end on a team
that will be airing it out quite a bit. Although Tampa Bay’s next
two opponents have defended the tight end well, it is important
to remember Wright is essentially a receiver masquerading as a
tight end. Over the next two weeks against defensive-minded Carolina
and Seattle, it will be important for Mike Glennon to get the
ball out quickly. I wouldn’t recommend starting him against the
Panthers when athletic OLB Thomas Davis figures to see a lot of
him in coverage, but Glennon may have no choice but to go his
way against the Seahawks with their standout cornerbacks defending
Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. After that two-game run, each
of the Bucs’ next three opponents appears to be a plus-matchup
for opposing tight ends.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |