Quarterbacks

Tom Brady/Russell Wilson

The call: Russell Wilson (x4). I wrestled with this decision before the start of the playoffs and would do the same now if we disregarded the 4x next to Wilson’s name. To what degree will CB Richard Sherman be limited with his left elbow sprain? How about S Earl Thomas and his dislocated shoulder? While optimism has been abundant regarding two of the key members of “The Legion of Boom”, I would expect Brady to test their health early – especially Thomas since he could see a fair amount of Rob Gronkowski. Wilson’s running ability always makes him a viable fantasy threat and he’ll probably rely more than usual on his legs since CBs Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Kyle Arrington should win most of the battles against the Seahawks’ receivers. I suppose Brady is the most logical choice given the health of Seattle’s secondary, but I’m hardly convinced he’s the right call.

Outside of Marshawn Lynch, the options at RB are thin.

Running Backs

Shane Vereen/LeGarrette Blount/Jonas Gray/Brandon Bolden/Marshawn Lynch/Robert Turbin

The call: Marshawn Lynch (x3) and LeGarrette Blount (x2). Were this as simple as picking the two backs who average the most yards after contact (Blount – 3.17; Lynch – 3.11), I might feel good about keeping my lineup the same. I probably will, but I’m more confident that Blount will rush for fewer than 20 yards this week than 50 or more. New England’s “power” game figures to be about as effective this week as it was against Baltimore, meaning this could easily be a Vereen game with a side of Bolden. Blount doesn’t offer anything in the passing game and could be phased out after five carries if they aren’t productive ones. I don’t expect any Patriot runner to have a great game, but I feel pretty sure that if one does, it won’t be Blount.

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell/Danny Amendola/Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Ricardo Lockette/Kevin Norwood

The call: Julian Edelman (x2) and Doug Baldwin. Sherman’s bum elbow increases the chances that LaFell will be a serviceable play. With that said, the ex-Panther will either end up in Sherman or Byron Maxwell’s coverage all game long, which makes a low-upside option at best. If the Patriots are going to have much success offensively, it will almost certainly because Vereen is beating a linebacker on a dump-off or wheel route OR because Edelman and Amendola are getting open in between the hashes and underneath the coverage. I’m not thrilled about Baldwin faring well against Revis, Browner or Arrington, but I’d rather take my chances on him over Kearse, who will probably need a big-play touchdown catch in a game that is unlikely to produce one.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski/Tim Wright/Luke Willson/Tony Moeaki

The call: Rob Gronkowski (x4). Seattle is as well-equipped to defend Gronk as any team when “The Legion of Boom” is 100 percent, but I’m not sure the combination of an injured Thomas and Kam Chancellor is the ideal mix to stop him this Sunday. There seems to be plenty of speculation the latter will be Gronkowski’s main matchup in the Super Bowl and, in theory, it makes a lot of sense given Chancellor’s uncommon size (6-3, 232) and Thomas’ health. However, that notion could be a bit shortsighted since the Patriots also use Gronk out wide on occasion and that is not somewhere Chancellor will go. In reality, Gronkowski could see as much of LBs K.J. Wright or Bobby Wagner as he does Chancellor or Thomas. Regardless of the defender he draws most often in coverage, Gronkowski is the only realistic option for owners this week.

Kickers

Stephen Gostkowski/Steven Hauschka

The call: Stephen Gostkowski (x4). It would not surprise me if both teams struggle inside the red zone and need three or more field goals in order to get a win this week. Ultimately, I expect New England offense to fizzle inside the 20 more often than Seattle, which means I expect Gostkowski to be the slightly better play.

Defense/Special Teams

Patriots/Seahawks

The call: Seahawks (x4). This is one of the few recent instances where I believe the best team from both conferences made the Super Bowl and a big reason for that is because each team has a very good (or great) defense. While both teams should have reasonable success moving the ball, I doubt there will be a high number of touchdowns scored. The injuries to Thomas and Sherman are significant enough that I could see the Patriots’ offense thriving on occasion, but the balance of the Seahawks’ offensive attack is such that I can’t imagine New England’s defense enjoying a banner fantasy day either.

Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Wilson: 210 passing yards, one passing TD, 40 rushing yards (16 x 4 = 64 fantasy points)
Lynch: 85 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 20 receiving yards (16 x 4 = 64 fantasy points)
Blount: 25 rushing yards (2 x 2 = four fantasy points)
Edelman: 70 receiving yards (7 x 2 = 14 fantasy points)
Baldwin: 55 receiving yards (five fantasy points)
Gronkowski: 65 receiving yards, one receiving TD (12 x 4 = 48 fantasy points)
Gostkowski: one extra point, three field goals (10 x 4 = 40 fantasy points)
Seahawks DST: 23 PA, two sacks, one turnover and a team win (8 x 4 = 32 fantasy points)

Projected Total: 271 fantasy points

Fearless Super Bowl prediction: Seahawks 26, Patriots 23

Fuzzy’s

Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well, with the key differences being that Fuzzy’s uses PPR scoring and there are no bonus-point modifiers or team-win points. Kickers get four points for field goals between 40-49 yards and six points for 60+ conversions while all TDs are worth six points. (Here is a link to the scoring.) Your goal is to pick the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each owner is asked to select a tiebreaker every week which will be used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams in a league whereas most other major sites employ a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving a nice return on investment for their troubles.

Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense/Special Teams

In this section, I’ll simply list how my teams did last week and suggest where I am leaning this week while presenting a brief overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how strongly I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the same lineup in more than one league.

I expect at least half of the owners to start Blount opposite Lynch this week, if only because he blew up the box score in the Patriots’ last game and is the best bet to score a rushing touchdown of any New England running back. I believe that would be a huge mistake, which is why I’m reasonably certain that Vereen will be in every one of my lineups. Blount offers nothing as a receiver while Vereen excels in the passing game, which is about the only way I can imagine any Patriots’ running back will shine on Sunday. If I choose to go with someone other than Vereen on one of my teams, I’ll opt for Bolden.

While the Patriots and Seahawks don’t possess any superstar receivers, it seems clear that Baldwin and Edelman should be no-brainer selections this week. Although working out of the slot does not guarantee production, it should help both players avoid a heavy dose of Revis and Sherman, respectively. The choice for the third spot is a bit more difficult, however, since it is conceivable that LaFell could find a way into the end zone as Brady’s favorite red-zone option among the receivers. Kearse could see the most snaps of the remaining options, but I don’t see him enjoying a lot of success against Revis or Browner. This process of elimination leaves us with Amendola, who I expect to be on the field a lot on Sunday. New England’s likely plan of attack on offense will be to spread it out and let its best short and intermediate options (Edelman, Amendola and Vereen) go to work. It wouldn’t surprise me much if Amendola ends up being the most productive fantasy receiver in the game this weekend, just as he was in the Divisional Round when the Patriots essentially chose not to run the ball.

Gronkowski will demand a ton of attention and may not be the best bet for a touchdown this week, but anyone that has watched the Patriots this year knows that Brady often doesn’t care if his tight end is covered or not on a given play, particularly near the end zone. New England’s safety and linebacker play may not be quite at the level of Seattle’s, but it should be effective enough to ensure that Gronkowski outperforms Willson in fantasy.

As I stated in the recap of last week, choosing the wrong kicker can be devastating to your team’s chances to finish in the money. I won’t ever claim to be able to predict weekly fantasy performance from kickers, but my selection process often comes down to which offense I believe will struggle more in the red zone. Quite often, that is a question that can be answered by which team is likely the least able to move the ball on the ground inside the 20. I expect that offense to be the Patriots, who are much more likely to abandon the run by the second quarter and throw 40-50 times than they are to pound away at the Seahawks’ run defense.

If I expect New England to struggle more in the red zone, then by extension it would follow that I will use the defense opposing the Patriots. Ultimately, picking a defense for this game is like splitting hairs as the New England stands a better chance at recording more sacks while Seattle is a slightly better bet at preventing touchdowns. I could see this decision going down to the wire on Sunday, but I’m leaning towards using the Patriots on two teams and the Seahawks on the other two.

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