Three years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and "The
Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. The idea then -
as it is today - was to identify negative and positive receiver
matchups, respectively, as a way to prepare owners for the upcoming
stretch of fantasy games that usually determine who moves on and
who doesn't.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down in much (if any) detail for what I can only
imagine is a fear of being wrong or a general lack of readily
available information. That's not a shot at the fantasy industry,
it's just the cold hard truth in a lot of cases. I probably hate
being wrong more than anyone I know, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't
take a shot at being right … no?
In a team game, the receiver vs. cornerback battle is often as
individual as it gets at the skill positions. Without getting
into too much of a philosophical discussion about how individual
it is, we can generally assume that a defense will remain either
a team that uses a “shadow” cornerback or opts to
“play sides” and not change its method during the
course of a game. Receivers tend to move all around the formation
and many of the top receivers nowadays spend time in the slot,
so the most any analyst can say with any certainty is that a certain
receiver should see a lot of a certain receiver in coverage based
on where he has lined up in the past.
I have often said owners make the most lineup mistakes at receiver
because there is more mystery surrounding the receiver vs. cornerback
battle than any other fantasy position. In an effort to eliminate
some of that mystery, I have chosen to bring back this two-part
series to take a look at the juiciest matchups available to our
receivers, just in time for what we all hope is a long playoff
run. Next week, I'll turn the spotlight on the 12 cornerbacks
we don’t want our receivers to face.
While the receiver position will probably always remain the most
difficult fantasy position to predict from week to week, we do
have some tools at our disposal to evaluate just how difficult
their upcoming matchups are. Pro Football Focus has many stats
that can help us to make informed decisions about what receiver
vs. cornerback matchups we should target, and I am using their
coverage grade (as opposed to their overall grade) as a tool to
help discern what receivers could be in for a big day. Below is
a list of the 12 cornerbacks most likely to get picked on in the
coming weeks, ranked from the 12th-worst to the worst.
Note: The average
number of coverage snaps for the 117 cornerbacks to qualify for
PFF's rankings was 269, so I chose to use that number to eliminate
players who aren't "full-timers". Below each write-up
is the remaining schedule and the projected matchups each corner
should see in coverage in that week. Please note while I do watch
enough film to feel confident about my projected matchups, I am
not so naïve to believe I've got it pegged. Receivers move
across the formation a lot nowadays, while most defensive coordinators
seem to favor keeping their corners on one side of the formation.
Kelvin Benjamin has a couple tasty matchups
including a date with Vernon Hargreaves in Week 16.
12. Logan Ryan, New England (PFF Coverage
Grade: 55.1)
Ryan has never graded lower than 69.4 (overall) prior to this
season, so he's got some work to do if he hopes to avoid setting
a new career low in that regard. Depending on the opponent and
the quality of its receivers, the Patriots will sometimes use
Malcolm Butler to shadow the opponent's No. 2 wideout and give
Ryan regular help against the No. 1 in order to give themselves
a chance to take away one side of the field. Butler is currently
PFF's fifth-ranked CB in coverage (86), so he may not be all that
far away from earning a chance to shadow lead receivers on a regular
basis. At any rate, Ryan's effectiveness has dipped dramatically
from 2015, so it is fair to wonder if his drop in play has to
do with a combination of New England's lackluster pass rush and
a greater emphasis from offenses to avoid throwing at Butler,
particularly if he is guarding the opponent's second-best receiver
that day. Ryan hasn't exactly had an easy run either, opposing
Larry Fitzgerald, Terrelle Pryor and A.J. Green, among others.
The Pats were prompted to make a change in Week 7, cutting Ryan's
snaps for two weeks and starting former Philadelphia Eagle Eric Rowe ahead of him, but Ryan returned to his usual role last week
versus the Seattle Seahawks, while Rowe did not play at all.
Predicting what the Patriots are going to do in any particular
area in any given week is a difficult task, but it seems logical
to believe Ryan's primary responsibility in coverage for the remainder
of the fantasy season will remain consistent with how I laid it
out above (Butler shadowing the opponent's No. 2 wideout and giving
Ryan regular help over the top). If that is the case, here's his
likely upcoming schedule:
While the caliber of receivers he is likely to see is daunting
at first glance, all of them come attached to below-average quarterbacks.
As such, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot for fantasy owners
to take advantage of here.
If there were any questions on how the Raiders' viewed their
2013 first-round pick prior to free agency this offseason, they
were answered when Oakland handed Sean Smith a four-year, $40
M deal to start opposite David Amerson. Smith was famously toasted
by Brandin Cooks in Week 1 but has since rebounded nicely. As
proof of that, both Smith and Amerson currently rank inside the
top 20 in coverage grades per PFF. Smith's arrival pushed Hayden
into the slot, where he has played better than he did last year
but still not at a high level. Given the recent success of Smith
and Amerson, it is a pretty good bet more and more teams will
increase the number of times they send their top wideout in the
slot in order to escape their coverage moving forward, making
it a virtual certainty Hayden's grade will plummet. It is worth
noting, however, that most of the Oakland's remaining opponents
already give their top receiver plenty of slot time, so while
owners cannot exactly target one specific player Hayden might
be guarding for most of any given week, they can still get some
benefit from using their wideout against the Raiders.
10. Buster Skrine, New York Jets (PFF Coverage
Grade: 54.0)
Remember last year when the return of Darrelle Revis and signing
of Skrine - along with the presence of Antonio Cromartie - was
going to make the Jets' secondary a no-fly zone? Oh, how quickly
things change in the NFL. Revis' coverage grade is just high enough
that he missed this list (58.6), but Skrine has once again been
exposed as an overaggressive corner who commits too many penalties.
He's already been benched, but the Jets don't have the luxury
of leaving him on the sideline since Revis' play has tailed off
dramatically, Cromartie is long gone, former first-round pick
Dee Millner was cut over the summer and Marcus Williams - the
most effective New York corner by far this season - is out for
a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain. The pass rush isn't good
enough to mask the Jets' secondary shortcomings either, so Skrine
& Co. will continue to be a favorable target for passing games
for the foreseeable future. Although Skrine will often move into
the slot in three-wide packages, he'll continue to see plenty
of work outside with Williams out.
Joseph hasn't graded out lower than 70 since he was a Cincinnati
Bengal back in 2007, but it appears age (32) and the fact he has
been at his job for 11 years might be starting to catch up with
him. In his defense, he had a rough October physically, dealing
with a concussion in Week 5 and a forearm injury in Week 6, although
neither injury caused him to miss a game. A.J. Bouye has played
like the best corner in the league for most of the season and
is one of the primary reasons Houston continues to play great
pass defense despite the loss of DE J.J. Watt, the decline of
Joseph and the season-ending injury to CB Kevin Johnson. Since
Joseph spends the bulk of his time on the defensive left side,
he's likely to see an assortment of wide receivers every week,
so it will be difficult to owner to pick on him when considering
advantageous matchups. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, since
some offenses tend to lean toward playing a receiver on one side
of the formation more often than others.
Worley is a third-round rookie out of West Virginia and was the
Panthers' second attempt in this spring's draft to fill the void
left behind by the departure of Josh Norman. While draft analysts
liked his size (6-1, 204 pounds) and ball skills for the most
part, they were less crazy about his 4.54 speed, which is probably
one reason why a zone-based defense like Carolina ended up taking
him late on the second day of the draft. At any rate, while second-round
draft classmate James Bradberry seems to be settling in nicely
(79.2 coverage grade), Worley is getting picked on. However, much
like several other situations we have/will discuss, the Panthers
really don't have many other alternatives. Bene Benwikere was
let go after Julio Jones' 300-yard game in Week 4 and fellow rookie
Zack Sanchez isn't ready. Offenses have sensed blood in the water
ever since, which leaves Carolina with three corners out on the
field quite often (Bradberry, Worley and slot CB Leonard Johnson).
Worley (RCB) and Bradberry (LCB) don't shadow receivers, so the
former can expect to guard several different wideouts each week.
7. Nolan Carroll, Philadelphia (PFF Coverage
Grade: 51.1)
Excluding the Week 9 loss to the New York Giants in which the
Eagles essentially giftwrapped New York's first two touchdowns
(and gave up four passing scores on the day), Philadelphia's pass
defense has been pretty stingy, especially when it comes to giving
up touchdowns. However, just because a unit is doing well collectively,
it doesn't always mean in each of its individual parts are holding
up their end of the bargain. Carroll's overall grade (50.4) is
his lowest since 2011 and that was before he left Week 10 with
a concussion. Unfortunately, the Eagles have precious little depth
behind him and Jalen
Mills, who got the start last week because the team wanted
to rest injured top corner Leodis
McKelvin, is the worst-rated cover corner in the league per
PFF. (Former CFL All-Star Aaron Grymes and undrafted rookie free
agent C.J. Smith are the only other cornerbacks listed on the
team's depth chart.) Long story short, we can safely assume Carroll
will return to his usual RCB position when he clears protocol.
It's also bears mentioning that Carroll might not be as bad as
his grade suggests - at least not recently - as he has done battle
against Dez
Bryant, Odell
Beckham Jr. and Julio
Jones over the past three weeks.
Gilmore was one of the league's better corners in each of the
last two seasons, so this one may come as a shock to most. Should
fans be alarmed? Sure, because it's obviously never good for a
corner to grade so low at the primary job he is being paid to
do. But there's more to it than that and this
link should serve as another reminder than players (defenders
in this case) don't always lose effectiveness from year-to-year
because their skills fade or for any other number of reasons,
but because schemes change and doesn't always fit everybody's
skill-set. As the linked article suggests, Gilmore is known more
as a "squat corner" - a player who excels against quick, timing
routes. He's not a zone corner and often does his best work in
press-man coverage. Last season, Buffalo blitzed 35 percent of
the time through the first nine games, which plays right into
Gilmore's strengths. Again, as the linked article suggests, his
technique has not been as good this season and his confidence
is not where it has been in years past. In my experience, technique
can improve as quickly as the player recognizes there is a problem,
but a major decline in confidence - once it strikes - seems to
last for the season. The bigger problem here, however, is that
Gilmore is a press corner being asked to play more off-coverage.
Until HC Rex Ryan gets back to the blitzing style he is known
for, Gilmore may be more of a sitting duck than most want to admit.
5. Ken Crawley, New Orleans (PFF Coverage
Grade: 50.3)
Undrafted rookie free agents are supposed to struggle in the
NFL, especially in their rookie year. They aren't supposed to
be logging major snaps in their Week 1 pro debut or be expected
to cover Julio Jones two weeks later. But that is exactly what
happened when Delvin Breaux broke his fibula in Week 1 and P.J. Williams was lost for the season a week later due to a concussion.
Breaux's return from IR in Week 9 bumped Crawley from the starting
lineup, while B.W. Webb and Sterling Moore have logged starts
opposite Breaux over the last two games. Thus, I am going to assume
Crawley is no more than a fourth corner for the Saints for now,
making him virtually impossible to target for fantasy purposes.
Behind standouts Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., Roby is typically
the Broncos' third corner. He's been pressed into heavier snaps
over the last three weeks due to Talib's back injury and he hasn't
caught any breaks in that time, going up against proficient offenses
in San Diego, Oakland and New Orleans. While Roby helped cause
two turnovers against the Saints, he gave up a tough touchdown
to Willie Snead as well. A week earlier, he drew Amari Cooper
and was flagged twice. The week before he returned an interception
from Philip Rivers for a touchdown. All of this is to say his
low grade probably isn't so much poor coverage as it is the quality
of competition he has faced lately. After Denver returns from
its Week 11 bye, its remaining slate figures to be a better indication
of what Roby is really about. However, Talib is expected to return
as well, which will likely lower Roby's snaps back into the 30-40
range he was playing prior to Talib's absence, instead of the
70-80 range he saw in Weeks 8-9.
PFF has Cox rated as the 107th corner out of 117 that qualify
- a mark that is actually better than the one he had entering
last week (112th). He drew primary coverage of Jordy Nelson last
week and most of us remember how that turned out (12-126-1 on
18 targets). Obviously, Cox wasn't responsible for all that damage,
but Nelson's big line last week had just as much to do with his
matchup as it did negative game script and his connection with
Aaron Rodgers. A handful of other receivers that spend a great
deal of time on the right side of the offensive formation have
also enjoyed plenty of success this season against him this season,
including Terrelle Pryor and Michael Crabtree. Overall, Cox graded
out in the 70s in each of his previous two seasons, but his play
has slipped below the level that made him something of a journeyman
prior to his arrival in Tennessee. Fellow starter Jason McCourty
(77.0 overall, 76.7 coverage) is hardly a shutdown force himself,
but Cox really isn't giving quarterbacks much of a reason to attack
the other side of the field.
2. Marcus Cooper, Arizona (PFF Coverage
Grade: 43.2)
Cooper was acquired via trade after final cuts this summer from
the Kansas City Chiefs to provide some depth behind converted
running back Brandon Williams, who "won" the job in
camp. The New England Patriots were merciless in targeting Williams
in Week 1 and his inexperience showed up in a big way. Cooper
took over and was promptly named NFC Defensive Player of the Week
in Week 2 after picking off two passes (one for a score) against
Tampa Bay, but it has been much more bad than good since. Because
he plays opposite Patrick Peterson, Cooper will continue to be
targeted heavily regardless of whether or not he steps up his
game moving forward. Peterson doesn't always shadow receivers,
but Arizona tends to use him in that regard when the Cardinals
face an elite wideout, so owners can target Williams whenever
that occurs.
The third corner selected in the spring's draft, Hargreaves was
billed as an ultra-competitive and explosive player with great
feet. His size (5-10, 204) and speed (4.5) are less than ideal,
but little more than slight concerns. So why is he the most advantageous
matchup in the league this year? Well, he's young (turned 21 in
June) and the Bucs asked him to learn the right and slot corner
positions in camp, putting more on his plate than they probably
should have. It's also possible new DC Mike Smith, who has never
been considered a great defensive mind, isn't using the rookie
correctly. Not unlike Gilmore above, Hargreaves excels at press-man
coverage, but Smith has never been an overly aggressive play-caller,
which leaves him in off-coverage a lot. This obviously gives big
receivers more time to exploit his size and quarterbacks more
time to make the perfect throw. Hargreaves possesses too much
talent to remain one of the worst cover corners in the league,
but it might take another season (and possibly a different coordinator)
in order for it to happen.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
