What April's draft boasted in terms of quality and quantity at a
number of positions, the free agency market did not. That's not
to say some impact players didn't seek and/or find greener pastures,
but only a handful of veterans - mostly receivers and tight ends
- who changed employers did much to change their fantasy fortunes
in 2017. That doesn't mean it's not worth looking at the new landscape,
however.
After providing each of you with my early-summer thoughts on
the incoming class of rookies each of the last two weeks (Part
1 and Part 2) and
their potential impact in redraft leagues, it's time to focus
on the veterans that are most likely to make some noise in their
new surroundings. (The players will be separated initially by
position, and then ordered by likely “impact” in 2017.
I’ll briefly discuss a pair of other notable players that
should probably go undrafted in most traditional 16-round drafts
at the bottom of the article.)
QB Mike
Glennon 2016 Team: Tampa Bay
2017 Team: Chicago
Fantasy Analysis: At this point
of his career, Glennon has to be wondering what a guy needs to
do in order to keep a job for more than a year. One year after
holding his own (19 touchdowns, nine interceptions) in 13 starts
as a rookie in 2013, Josh McCown was named the Bucs' starter in
camp the following year. Jameis Winston was drafted No. 1 in 2015
and the rest is history. Fast forward to March of 2017 and Glennon
has to be feeling good about getting $18.5 million guaranteed
in a three-year deal from the Bears. Of course, his honeymoon
period lasted less than two months as he was famously invited
to the team's draft party at Soldier Field when Chicago traded
up for Mitchell Trubisky. At any rate, Glennon has to be considered
at least a small upgrade over the glut of quarterbacks (Jay Cutler,
Brian Hoyer, Mark Barkley and David Fales) the Bears rolled out
last season. Chicago has also blessed him with an up-and-coming
offensive line - a definite plus considering how immobile Glennon
is - and what should once again be a solid running game led by
Jordan Howard. The main questions: 1) Will the fifth-year veteran
will be able to recreate the same chemistry with Cameron Meredith
that Jay Cutler did early and Barkley had late last season?; 2)
Will Kevin White and/or Zach Miller stay healthy long enough to
give Glennon more than one decent option in the passing game?;
3) How long will it take before the front office pushes Trubisky
into the lineup to save the day? With so many quality QB1-capable
quarterbacks in fantasy, Glennon faces long odds of emerging as
anything more than a bye-week option in what may be a one-and-done
situation in Chicago for him.
QB Brian
Hoyer 2016 Team: Chicago
2017 Team: San Francisco
Fantasy Analysis: When's the last time a quarterback with a 25:7
TD-INT ratio over the last two years has been so undervalued?
It goes a bit deeper than that, as we all well know, and so Hoyer
is playing on his fourth team in four seasons. Fortunately from
his perspective, his new head coach is one of his former offensive
coordinators (Cleveland, 2014), so new HC Kyle Shanahan will try
to get the 49ers back on track with a 31-year-old quarterback
who has been chewed up and spit out by five teams over his eight-year
career. Working in his favor is his experience with Shanahan,
the fact he has no legitimate competition behind him (Barkley
and rookie C.J. Beathard) and Shanahan's ability to consistently
churn out productive running games. Working against Hoyer is the
fact he has yet to play a full season, the offensive line was
among the worst at pass-blocking and run-blocking in 2016 and
no dynamic threats in the passing game beyond an aging Pierre
Garcon. Shanahan will get more out of this offense than he probably
should, but Hoyer faces longer odds than Glennon when it producing
in fantasy.
RB Mike
Gillislee 2016 Team: Buffalo
2017 Team: New England
Fantasy Analysis: For the bulk of HC Bill Belichick's tenure,
New England running backs as a group have annually been among
the best in fantasy. Of course, most fantasy leagues are not set
up to account for team scoring but rather individual scoring,
so finding even a regular flex contributor in their backfield
has been a challenge more often than not. LeGarrette Blount was
one of the few exceptions to that rule last year, primarily because
there were only three regular-season games in which he did not
score a touchdown. Naturally, owners will draft his replacement
with the hope (expectation?) his replacement can/will do the same,
especially considering the 2017 Patriots could be even more explosive
offensively. While a repeat of Blount's banner campaign is certainly
possible for Gillislee, there is one important reason franchise
records are franchise records (Blount had 18 rushing touchdowns
in 2016); they are tough to break, especially the following year.
The problem with drafting (or worse, counting on) New England
running backs is how game-specific their usage is. Facing an elite
run defense? No problem, the Pats will be happy using Julian Edelman
and James White as an extension to the running game. Trying to
blow out a team that said something it shouldn't have to the press
earlier that week? Same deal. With all that said, Gillislee is
more of a complete back than Blount and the one back on the roster
who gives New England a bit of power in between the tackles. Thus,
it is perfectly reasonable to believe Gillislee will be more efficient
than Blount was last year (299 carries for 1,161 yards) and still
be a less productive fantasy back because White or Dion Lewis
steal a handful red zone scores. Gillislee is positioned nicely
at the moment on Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP (6.03 in standard,
7.02 in PPR) and exactly the type of player owners should target
as a RB3/flex option.
Peterson in New Orleans: Mark Ingram's
new tag-team partner is one of the biggest fantasy storylines
this off-season.
RB Adrian
Peterson 2016 Team: Minnesota
2017 Team: New Orleans
Fantasy Analysis: Drew Brees paired up with Peterson probably
won more than a few owners a fantasy title about five years ago.
The Saints are hoping that pairing will help them end a three-year
run of 7-9 finishes. It's probably not a stretch to say Peterson
will be entering the most explosive offense he's ever been a part
of, but it's also a virtual certainty he'll top out around 200
touches and be considered - at best - Mark Ingram's tag-team partner.
Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara are much more accomplished in the
passing game, which is obviously New Orleans' preferred method
of attack. Peterson stands to benefit greatly if Ingram falls
in line with his pre-2016 track record when it comes to durability,
but HC Sean Payton may have simply concluded the reason the former
Heisman Trophy winner was able to play all 16 games last year
for only the second time in his career was because he chose to
spread the wealth with Tim Hightower. Peterson obviously brings
more to the table than Hightower, but the workload split figures
to be about the same and every bit as unpredictable on a game-to-game
basis. With the ex-Viking unlikely to see more than 15 touches
per game on a regular basis - most of which will likely be as
a runner - and given the fact he will probably share goal-line
work with Ingram, Peterson's ceiling will probably be as a RB3/flex
option for as long as Ingram and Kamara stay healthy.
RB Danny
Woodhead 2016 Team: San Diego
2017 Team: Baltimore
Fantasy Analysis: The Ravens made no secret about their desire
to add another running back this offseason, and their sense of
urgency to do so increased once they learned Kenneth Dixon would
be suspended for the first four games of the season due to PEDs.
Fortunately for Baltimore, by the time the rest of the world found
out that news, Woodhead was already on the verge of signing. While
it is impossible to tell exactly how much longer his 32-year-old,
200-pound body will be able to hold up in the NFL, the ex-Charger
obviously was a player the team has big plans for in 2017 despite
the fact he is less than nine months removed from a torn ACL.
Woodhead's arrival is bad news for Terrance West in that the former
will probably eat into his goal-line carries - if not take the
job outright - as well as Dixon, who will probably at best share
snaps in the passing game. Since Woodhead is also highly regarded
for his ability as a blocker, the odds are pretty strong he will
see the most playing time from this group. The Ravens have been
among the league leaders the past two years in receptions from
running backs, with FB Kyle Juszczyk contributing 78 catches to
the total over that time. It is a fair bet Woodhead will absorb
Juszczyk's production and also cut into West's playing time at
the very least, while it remains to be seen if Dixon can reprise
the same kind of role he enjoyed as a rookie once he gets back
from suspension. All told, Woodhead should be a sneaky RB3 for
owners who could be had at a RB4 price tag this summer.
RB Eddie
Lacy 2016 Team: Green Bay
2017 Team: Seattle
Fantasy Analysis: HC Pete Carroll apparently wants Lacy to play
heavy. He's probably going to get his wish. The real question
is whether or not Seattle's weight-clause incentives over the
summer, per-week roster bonuses and other statistical incentives
are going to be enough motivation for him to get his career back
on track. Seattle addressed both guard spots on the offensive
line and figures to be better up front this year because of it.
With that said, Lacy's days of being a big back who will contribute
in the passing game are probably over whenever C.J. Prosise is
healthy enough to play. In fact, it is very possible Lacy will
struggle to get much more work on early downs than Thomas Rawls.
Without an Aaron Rodgers-led passing game to keep defenses honest
and an offensive line that may struggle to be average, Lacy's
chances of rehabbing his stock on a one-year deal could be slim
with Seattle probably opting for a committee backfield. A happy
and somewhat fit Lacy should be the main goal-line back and could
push for 10 touchdowns, but it might come attached to 600 to 700
yards rushing and little involvement in the passing game. If Russell
Wilson is forced to play hurt again in 2017, those somewhat optimistic
projections could take a pretty big hit. About two years after
he was in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy
drafts, Lacy has probably fallen into RB4 territory.
Fantasy Analysis: Blount probably wasn't going to come anywhere
close to repeating 2016 even if he had stayed in New England (1,161
yards rushing and 18 touchdowns), but he and his owners can forget
about it happening now. Few teams in the league seems happier
with the committee approach at running back than the Eagles, who
utilized Darren Sproles as their lead back for large parts of
last season and quite often gave three (or sometimes four) running
backs a bite of the apple. Blount is expected to fill the role
left behind by the injured Ryan Mathews, who is expected to be
released once he can pass a physical following offseason neck
surgery. Mathews enjoyed a nice little run over the early part
of last season, but his production was highly inconsistent after
September once the league got a better look at the Eagles and
RT Lane Johnson was suspended. Blount brings less to the passing
game than Mathews did - the former had seven catches last year
while the latter had 13 in 2016 - but he brings more power and
better ball security, which is a big deal considering how much
Philadelphia improved its receiving corps this offseason. Sproles
and rookie Donnel Pumphrey will see significant time in all non-early
down situations, and the Eagles won't be playing in such favorable
run situations nearly as often as the Patriots did last year,
so Blount isn't going to see 299 carries again. (Heck, 200 might
be an optimistic number.) As a result, he profiles as a touchdown-dependent
fantasy RB3 at best who figures to have his fair share of fantasy
game-winning performances one week and soul-crushing efforts the
next week.
Fantasy Analysis: It took about a week into free agency before
Murray landed on his feet. It probably took less than two months
for him to question his decision. Already sidelined for most of
the offseason due to ankle surgery, Murray's offseason fantasy
prospects took a substantial hit when the Vikings traded up for
Dalvin Cook, who could easily run away with the feature-back job
if Minnesota is willing to give out playing time in the backfield
based on merit. Murray goes from running behind one of the best
offensive lines in the NFL to one of the worst, although the Vikings
took some important steps toward addressing the front five by
adding OTs Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers in free agency as well
as G/C Pat Elflein in the draft. Despite the Raiders' talent up
front and in the passing game, Murray turned in consecutive seasons
averaging exactly four yards per carry. That's not a number that
is going to increase in Minnesota, as the Vikings' only edge at
any of the offensive positions may be at tight end. Cook and Jerick
McKinnon are big-play backs who should be able to get through
the hole quicker and can create more yards in space - an important
note to mention since the Vikings figure to remain a quick-hitting
offense which will throw a lot of short passes again in 2017.
Murray does have two things working in his favor: 1) he is the
heavy favorite to be the team's goal-line back and 2) Minnesota's
recent history. Any offensive coordinator willing to split touches
almost evenly between McKinnon and Matt Asiata probably won't
have any issue doing the same with Cook and Murray. In the end,
the rookie should be the man in this backfield no later than midseason,
meaning Murray may not be anything more than a RB4 or RB5 after
September.
RB Jamaal
Charles 2016 Team: Kansas City
2017 Team: Denver
Fantasy Analysis: Considering the details of his one-year, incentive-laden
contract, there is no guarantee Charles is even on the Week 1
roster this fall. Yes, this is where we are now with one of the
more dynamic backs in recent NFL history and the modern-day record-holder
in yards per carry by a running back (5.5). Charles didn't do
much during offseason workouts, so any debate about him until
after the start of training camp will probably be conjecture at
best. If all of the time away from the game has allowed his knee
to heal correctly, he will probably split carries with C.J. Anderson.
If he looks more like a typical 30-year-old back, then perhaps
he will be more of a third-down back while Devontae Booker attempts
to prove why he deserves about a third of the early-down work.
In short, it is way too early to try to get a feel for Charles'
2017 value now. He is going in the eighth round in both standard
and PPR leagues according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP
- a price that seems based on reputation and a bit exorbitant
considering starting-caliber receivers such as Cameron Meredith
and Corey Coleman can be drafted about a round later. Samaje Perine
and Kareem Hunt are coming off the board roughly about the same
time, and I'd argue both rookies have a much better shot at contributing
to fantasy championships this year than Charles.
WR Terrelle
Pryor 2016 Team: Cleveland
2017 Team: Washington
Fantasy Analysis: Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Cody Kessler,
Charlie Whitehurst and Kevin Hogan - this is the list of quarterbacks
Pryor had throwing him the ball last year (of course, when he
wasn't handling the duties himself). Perhaps no other 77-1,007-4
receiving line in recent history is more impressive considering
the quality of quarterbacking, especially considering how new
Pryor was to the position. One can only imagine what his ceiling
might be when you combine his talent with an above-average quarterback
in a contract year (again) in Kirk Cousins and a tight end like
Jordan Reed to command the respect of the defense. Perhaps only
a surprising showing by the defense - thus reducing the need for
Washington to pass as much as it has in recent years - can keep
Pryor from being an every-week WR2 with WR1 upside. DeSean Jackson
and Pierre Garçon each saw at least 100 targets and eclipsed 1,000
yards receiving in this offense last year, and neither player
can dominate physically or be the same factor in the red zone
(or is as versatile) as Pryor. HC Jay Gruden oversaw the best
two years of A.J. Green's career in Cincinnati in 2012 and 2013,
and this will mark the first time since then he will have a talent
in that class running routes. While I won't predict superstardom
this year, I think Pryor has a realistic shot at finishing among
the top 10 fantasy receivers in all leagues.
WR Brandin
Cooks 2016 Team: New Orleans
2017 Team: New England
Fantasy Analysis: Following a 2015 preseason game against the
Saints, one notable coach (wait for it) told the New Orleans Times-Picayune:
"I'm glad we don't have to play him twice a year and he's
not in our division. He's a really good player." I remembered
this quote the minute I learned Cooks was getting traded to New
England. But let's dig deeper: New Orleans and New England have
scrimmaged against each other for several years, so Belichick
also must have impressed with Cooks' practice habits, intelligence
and maybe even scheme versatility before trading for him. All
this is to say that Cooks will probably be more of a central part
of this offense than other recent receiver acquisition made by
the Patriots. Yes, Cooks will give New England the vertical threat
it hasn't seen since Randy Moss, but it does no good to compare
the 5-10 burner to a long-striding 6-4 receiver who played in
a pre-Rob Gronkowski offense with a much younger Tom Brady just
because they can both stretch the field. There's little doubt
Gronk will remain the preferred option in the passing game, but
I think the move for Cooks hints at a slightly decreased reliance
on Julian Edelman moving forward - assuming Gronkowski stays healthy
for most of the season. Whatever decrease in targets Cooks might
see on an offense with so many passing-game weapons - he averaged
123 over his last two years in New Orleans - he should make up
for in big-play touchdowns simply because defenses will have little
choice but to respect the running game and the Patriots' ability
to control the middle of the field with Gronk and Edelman. It
would not be the least bit surprising if Cooks finished with fewer
than 70 receptions but set career highs in yards (1,173 last year),
yards per catch (15) and TD catches (nine in 2015).
WR Alshon
Jeffery 2016 Team: Chicago
2017 Team: Philadelphia
Fantasy Analysis: In the two seasons Jeffrey played all 16 games,
he averaged 87.5 catches, 1,277 yards and 8.5 touchdowns (and
even threw in some rushing yards for good measure). We've seen
the good. The bad is obviously the fact he has missed at least
four games and averaged a 43.3-665-3 line in each of the other
three seasons he has been in the league, which makes it hard to
consider him a WR1. In Philadelphia, he steps into perhaps his
best situation since 2013 when he, Brandon Marshall, Martellus
Bennett and Matt Forte all enjoyed banner seasons playing in then-HC
Marc Trestman's offense. With second-year QB Carson Wentz's career
arc looking to head into a much different direction than Jay Cutler's,
one could argue Jeffery has never had it better. Thus, it is all
on the one-time Pro Bowler to make sure he's healthy enough to
take advantage of the situation. And really, that's what it all
boils down to with him, because he's a proven producer who is
too big (6-3, 218) and plays the ball in the air too well for
most cornerbacks. Whether or not HC Doug Pederson's offense will
cater to his skill-set is another question entirely, but his one-year
contract as well as the fact Torrey Smith, Jordan Matthews and
Zach Ertz each deserve respect from the defense does suggest there
should be enough working in his favor to approach his best days
as a Bear … if he can stay healthy. He should fall into the late
third round of most drafts, which sounds about right for a WR2
with his combination of durability and upside.
WR Jeremy
Maclin 2016 Team: Kansas City
2017 Team: Baltimore
Fantasy Analysis: Steve Smith may have been at the tail end of
his likely Hall-of-Fame career when he joined the Ravens three
years ago, but he turned out to be a worthy investment for a team
who has spent most of its existence relying heavily on non-homegrown
receivers. (Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin are a couple of recent
examples.) Maclin figures to be the next in that line of wideouts,
and one capable of rivaling (and sustaining) the kind of production
Smith enjoyed over the first half of the 2014 season. With Dennis
Pitta's career likely over and speed-burners Mike Wallace and
Breshad Perriman capable of stretching defenses, the Ravens desperately
needs someone who can work the slot like Smith did prior to his
retirement and a receiver who isn't afraid of the high-volume
grunt work over the middle. There was reportedly some concern
Maclin had "lost a step" prior to his release from the
Chiefs, although it seems like a claim with no merit since he
is a 29-year-old who played hurt most of last year and is two
years removed from a 87-catch season with an average quarterback
(Alex Smith) as his quarterback. Expect Maclin to essentially
merge the roles of Smith and Pitta and bring more big-play ability
to the table than either one did in 2016, although his YPC may
not reflect it at season's end if he works mostly underneath.
If Maclin proves he is still every bit as dynamic as he was in
2015 and can stay healthy this year, he should be able to top
80 catches once again and emerge as Joe Flacco's top target.
WR Pierre
Garcon 2016 Team: Washington
2017 Team: San Francisco
Fantasy Analysis: Once upon a time, Garcon saw an unthinkable
184 targets as second-year QB Robert Griffin III's favorite receiver
in the nation's capital, enabling the Mount Union product to finish
with 113 catches, 1,346 yards and five touchdowns. The offensive
coordinator? New 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan. Four years later, Shanahan
will turn to a familiar face - entering his age-31 season - to
help another former Shanahan protégé, Brian Hoyer,
to prove he still belongs in the league. Garcon operated as a
1A or 1B receiver at times last year, although it is safe to say
Washington's passing game revolved more around Jordan Reed. In
San Francisco, feel free to try to name a receiver, tight end
or running back after Garcon who should command anywhere close
to 100 targets. It's kind of a big deal, because despite all the
improvements the 49ers made in the offseason, they still seem
like a good bet to throw the ball 550 to 600 times. It doesn't
take long to realize while Garcon is not at the stage of his career
where he deserves 150 targets, he very well may push that mark.
That is notable, as only 13 of 177 players to record at least
150 targets since 1992 have finished with fewer than 80 catches.
Touchdowns will probably still be hard to come by, but that kind
of volume alone makes him a fantasy WR3, so he's actually got
a very good chance to build upon last season's numbers (79-1,041-3)
and maybe even perform like a low-end WR2 on occasion.
WR Eric
Decker 2016 Team: NY Jets
2017 Team: Tennessee
Fantasy Analysis: In one offseason, the Titans have turned one
of their biggest weaknesses (receiver) into one of the biggest
strengths. For the first time since his debut season in New York
in 2014, Decker should have a solid chance to be his team's clear
No. 1 receiver, and he'll get that opportunity with someone throwing
him the ball that isn't Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. The former
Bronco has three seasons with at least 11 touchdown catches on
his resume and is a quality slot receiver for an offense which
figures to use more three-wide sets this year after losing blocking
TE Anthony Fasano. While Decker's fantasy ceiling is obviously
capped by Tennessee's conservative run-oriented offense and the
amount of receiving talent on the team now, owners would be doing
themselves a disservice if they consider him anything less than
an every-week WR3. The running game is among the league's best,
rookie Corey Davis should be a star in the league sooner than
later and Rishard Matthews has already proven he is a very capable
second receiver, so defenses won't be able to key on any one particular
player or phase. Decker is a proven force in the red zone, and
his addition may be enough to convince the Titans to open things
up a little bit more on offense this year as well. While another
74-catch season in this offense may be a bit much to ask - he
had four straight prior to 2016 - he should be Tennessee's top
receiver this year and is a candidate to score double-digit touchdowns
yet again with Marcus Mariota as his quarterback.
WR DeSean
Jackson 2016 Team: Washington
2017 Team: Tampa Bay
Fantasy Analysis: In real football
and strictly from an efficiency perspective, Jackson is the epitome
of what coaches want from skill-position players - athletes who
don't require a lot of touches in order to have a huge impact
on the game. Perhaps at no point in his career will he be able
to do a better job of that than in 2017 with Tampa Bay. Although
Jackson has served as a No. 1 receiver in the past, he is more
of a classic 1B or maybe even a No. 2 option in that he doesn't
control the middle of the field or dominate in the red zone. While
he will certainly still produce solid numbers across the board,
he will be more like a good point guard than shooting guard in
basketball in Tampa Bay in that his presence is going to make
things much easier for his teammates and should take this offense
to the next level. Even at 30 years old, Jackson stretches as
well and easily as any receiver in the league. That means most
corners are going to need safety help against him, which is the
same that can be said for Mike Evans. Obviously, that opens up
the middle of the field for TEs O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate,
not to mention the running game, which should never face a stacked
box. Jackson may not see enough targets or high-percentage looks
to finish with more than 60 catches, but he's a good bet to push
his career high of nine touchdowns and average nearly 20 yards
per reception. The fantasy consistency may be maddening from time
to time as has become his norm, but few fantasy WR3s will be able
to deliver as many week-winning performances as he should as a
Buc.
Marshall in New York: It remains to be
seen if Marshall can keep a cool head playing second fiddle
to Odell Beckham Jr.
Fantasy Analysis: In early April,
Eli Manning compared the addition of Marshall to Plaxico Burress,
and the comparison makes sense on a number of levels, not the
least of which is how big of a target each receiver provides/provided.
Marshall himself has already made clear he understands his place
in the passing game pecking order behind Odell Beckham Jr. While
he isn't going to stretch the field in the same way some of the
other receivers on this list will, there is something to be said
about a wideout who can bully his way into first downs and give
defenses something else to think about in the red zone besides
OBJ. In fact, it's not hard to see Marshall thriving in the role
that Rueben Randle was supposed to play and being more productive
- especially in touchdown department - with the same number of
chances Randle received in his two years in then-OC Ben McAdoo's
offense. (Randle posted a 71-938-3 line on 127 targets in 2014
and 57-797-8 on 90 targets in 2015.) In all likelihood, Marshall
will probably be on the high end of all those Randle numbers,
so while it may be disappointing from the level of production
his owners have come to expect from him prior to 2016, they will
probably be good enough for him to warrant consideration as an
every-week starting, high-end WR3 option.
WR Robert
Woods 2016 Team: Buffalo
2017 Team: LA Rams
Fantasy Analysis: Woods was anything but consistent in 2016,
but he proved to be a receiver capable of delivering a WR1-level
performance on occasion in his final season as a Bill. He hardly
profiles as that kind of receiver long-term, but he'll be asked
to fill that role in Los Angeles - at least for a year - for a
team in desperate need of someone capable of carrying the passing
game from time to time. While he gives the Rams a credible threat
at the position and should be given as many targets as he can
handle in some games, a Jared Goff-led, short-passing offense
does not inspire much confidence. (Neither does four games receiving
primary coverage opposite Richard Sherman or shadow coverage from
Patrick Peterson.) Nevertheless, Woods should occupy the Garcon
role in new HC Sean McVay's offense in 2017 while Tavon Austin
mimics DeSean Jackson, rookie Cooper Kupp emulates Jamison Crowder
and Gerald Everett does his best Jordan Reed impression. Like
Garcon in San Francisco, Woods should get force-fed targets. Unlike
Garcon in Washington, Austin, Kupp and Everett have yet to prove
they can play to the level of the 2016 Redskins whose roles they
will try to fill. In the end, Woods should get enough opportunities
to be a consistent low-end WR3 in PPR who will probably struggle
to score touchdowns, just as he did in Buffalo.
WR Kenny
Britt 2016 Team: LA Rams
2017 Team: Cleveland
Fantasy Analysis: Britt must be a glutton for punishment. The
case could be made that Kerry Collins - in 2009 and 2010 - is
the best quarterback he has ever played with in his eight-year
career. His next stop is Cleveland, where quarterback instability
has become a bit of an institution. On the plus side, Britt's
supporting cast may be the best it's been in years, and there
may not be much pressure for him to be the top target if Corey
Coleman is ever able to stay healthy for a prolonged stretch.
There may be members of the fantasy community who believe the
ex-Titan and Ram can slide into Terrelle Pryor's role and put
up similar production as a big-bodied receiver long on talent,
but it seems doubtful that is how it will play out. Even if Britt
continues to stay reasonably healthy like he has in recent years,
Cleveland should be more competitive than it was last year and
the running game should be the focal point of the offense. As
such, a repeat of last year's 68-1,002-5 line with Los Angeles
should probably be considered his ceiling, and one he is unlikely
to hit - even if he only misses it by a little. He should make
for solid fantasy bench depth, but he'll be a stretch as anything
more than a WR4.
WR Ted
Ginn Jr. 2016 Team: Carolina
2017 Team: New Orleans
Fantasy Analysis: There is very little question what Ginn's role
is going to be. After all, the Saints have been trotting out speed
merchants for years - Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Kenny
Stills and Brandin Cooks to name the most prominent - and they
have all had delivered week-winning performances in fantasy. Now
the real question for owners: Is Ginn more Henderson or Cooks?
Ginn has been something of a late bloomer as a receiver, although
even his best years haven't allowed him to eclipse 60 catches
or 800 yards receiving through 10 NFL seasons. He still brings
elite speed to the table, but it would be a misnomer to say that
is all he is or will be, as The Advocate's Nick Underhill so eloquently
broke down shortly after the Saints signed him. According
to Underhill, Ginn was highly productive on the curl (16 catches
on 21 targets for 141 yards), the out (14 catches on 21 targets
for 164 yards) as well as slants and crossing routes (six catches
on 14 targets for 83 yards combined) last year. Bear in mind Ginn's
career "resurgence" came during the same time he also
had the best quarterback of his career throwing him the ball in
Cam Newton. Nothing against Newton, but he's not Drew Brees when
it comes to the art of quarterbacking. In an offense that hasn't
thrown fewer than 650 passes since 2009, Ginn is set up for a
career year even if Michael Thomas and Willie Snead combine for
300 targets. It's not realistic to expect Ginn to make the Saints
completely forget about Cooks, but he is simply too much of a
big-play threat on an offense with a very good ground game and
Hall-of-Fame level quarterback not to take advantage. His 14th
round ADP is at least two rounds too low, especially for someone
who could rival DeSean Jackson's production this year. Consider
him as a high-upside WR5 option near the end of your drafts; I
doubt you'll be sorry.
Fantasy Analysis: Bennett was going to be hard-pressed to find
a much greener pasture for his fantasy fortunes than New England.
The Packers didn't have many better options at tight end than
to bring back Jared Cook and usually sit out free agency. Somehow,
the two unlikely parties struck an accord and both should be better
as a result. Despite playing injured for the bulk of 2016, Bennett
finished with a 55-701-7 line in his only year as a Patriot despite
being something of an afterthought in that offense most weeks
- numbers that should serve as his floor as the primary tight
end in Green Bay. In return, the Packers should finally have the
presence at tight end Aaron Rodgers has sought since Jermichael
Finley and the kind of threat Cook gave Green Bay during the playoffs.
His ceiling is obviously capped somewhat by Rodgers' trust for
Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams in the red zone, but this should
be a loaded offense capable of averaging 30 points, so opportunities
should not be lacking. Furthermore, Bennett's ability to serve
as one of the best blockers at his position will keep him on the
field, helping out the potency of the running game while also
increasing the odds he'll be on the field just about every time
the Packers are within scoring range. He has top-five upside at
his position this season.
TE Julius
Thomas 2016 Team: Jacksonville
2017 Team: Miami
Fantasy Analysis: Entering his seventh NFL season and coming
off a mostly forgettable two-year stint as a Jaguar, Thomas has
already burned so many owners that any hype about him this summer
figures to fall on deaf ears. His 13.05 ADP in PPR leagues is
over three full rounds lower than Zach Ertz (10.01) and nearly
three rounds lower than rookie O.J. Howard (11.01). At that price,
it really doesn't matter if Thomas continues his injury-prone
ways; if HC Adam Gase utilizes him in the same way he did in Denver,
the former Portland State basketball player is going to play like
a TE1 and be a threat to score in any game. Much like his best
days with the Broncos, the Dolphins' supporting cast is very talented
and should be able to count on at least average play at quarterback.
Miami tight ends totaled 55 catches for 551 yards and six scores
last season despite cycling through Jordan Cameron (now retired),
Dion Sims (now in Chicago), MarQueis Gray and Dominique Jones.
No one from that group compares to Thomas as a receiver, and the
return of Anthony Fasano - a superb run blocker - should mean
Thomas can do what he has done in his best years before - control
the middle of the field. There were only a handful of potential
good landing spots for Thomas this season, but Miami - and specifically
in a Gase-led offense - was one of them. Entering his age-29 season,
Thomas should be considered a low-end fantasy TE1 with top-six
upside if he can somehow stay healthy long enough to play 14 games.
TE Jared
Cook 2016 Team: Green Bay
2017 Team: Oakland
Fantasy Analysis: Cook's 30-377-1 line in his only year as a
Packer doesn't come close to telling the story of his season.
The player that was supposed to give Aaron Rodgers his best option
at tight end in recent memory managed only six catches for 53
scoreless yards over his first two-plus games before suffering
a high-ankle sprain that sidelined him nearly two months. It took
only his first game back from injury - Week 11 versus Washington
(6-105-1) - to prove why he continues to find work year after
year in the league. Three more dreadful weeks followed that breakout
performance before he closed the regular season out strong and
balled out in the playoffs. Derek Carr isn't quite Rodgers, but
Cook did find a soft landing spot in Oakland for an offense that
needs a tight end to make defenses pay for giving too much respect
to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. In theory, Cook should be
able to push his career high of five touchdowns, but he has never
really been able to put it together for a full year despite playing
eight seasons in the league, usually due to poor quarterbacking,
injuries or both. Maybe this is the year, but owners would be
foolish to trust him as anything more than a TE2. While he should
be an upgrade over Clive Walford, consistency has never been his
forte, and Walford is just one season removed from being the future
at the position in Oakland.
This concludes the should-be-drafted portion of our segment.
Below are two players who may get drafted in deeper leagues based
on name recognition as much as anything:
WR Torrey
Smith 2016 Team: San Francisco
2017 Team: Philadelphia
Fantasy Analysis: Smith saw his stock reach its apex following
his breakout 2013 season in which he finished with 65 catches
for 1,128 yards. He still had plenty of believers after his fluky
11-score season the following year, but two years in San Francisco
exposed him as a player incapable of being a team's No. 1 receiver.
Following his release from the Niners, he joined the Eagles and
is the only one of the top three wideouts with a contract that
extends past 2017. Carson Wentz will do more for Smith than any
quarterback in San Fran could do for him over the last two seasons,
but the conservative nature of the Eagles' offense combined with
the presence of Jeffery, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz and Darren
Sproles among others will probably keep him from showing he is
anything more than a deep threat.
TE Dwayne
Allen 2016 Team: Indianapolis
2017 Team: New England
Fantasy Analysis: In a perfect world, Allen will be able to complete
16 games for the first time since his rookie season (2012). More
realistically, the former Colt will attempt to replicate the production
Martellus Bennett provided last year and give the Pats an able
body to step in should Rob Gronkowski struggle with injuries yet
again. Allen's talent has never been in question, but his durability
has - the main reason why owners would be unwise to put much faith
into him despite what could be a pretty decent role in what should
again be one of the top offenses in the league.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.