One of the many reasons owners have been so fixated on drafting
receivers early and often in recent years is the lack of blue-chip
running backs coming out of college, or at least a shortage of decent
backs landing in great situations. There has also seemingly been
a dearth of quality tight ends since the beginning of time, so much
so that half of the owners in a 12-team league are usually using
a committee or streaming the position for the better part of the
season.
Given how many quality wideouts have entered the league over
the last three to four years, the tide almost had to turn sooner
or later. There's a good chance 2017 will go down in history as
that year, as the draft provided a bumper crop of running backs
and tight ends unlike any we've seen in recent memory. Depending
on who you ask, at least four running backs had first-round grades
and two went in the top eight for the first time since 2005. Three
tight ends were selected in the first round for the first time
since 2002. But the draft is about more than just first-rounders
and fantasy owners sometimes need quantity about as much (if not
as much) as quality. Of the first 150 choices made, 15 running
backs and 10 tight ends were chosen, or 16.7 percent of the picks.
Of those groups, I think a fairly strong case can be made roughly
nine of the former and seven of the latter will become their team's
regular starter sometime this year or early next season.
In short, fantasy owners needed a draft like this to happen,
if only to restock the shelves and make it cool to be a "running
back guy" again. And while tight ends rarely ever contribute
meaningful fantasy numbers in their rookie season, it is good
to know there are some good ones in the pipeline.
Unlike Ezekiel Elliott last year, no rookie landed in what could
be considered a perfect situation after the dust settled following
the 2017 NFL Draft, so expectations must be tempered a bit for
this round of freshmen, especially if owners are going to use
Elliott as the standard for what they hope their rookie will do.
(One would hope that won't be the case, but there are more than
a few folks in this hobby who can be a bit unreasonable at times.)
Last year, I suggested the incoming rookie class, which by most
accounts wasn't supposed to be overly great in terms of future
fantasy impact, had two players who should be considered immediate
fantasy starters (Elliott and Sterling Shepard). Most will agree
Jordan Howard and Michael Thomas did enough to make the cut as
well. This year, it wouldn't surprise me if 10 newcomers find
their way into weekly fantasy relevancy, plus perhaps maybe a
couple more who won't make either this week or last week's list.
That's a stunning number of impact rookies for any draft class
and a pretty good indication this should go down as one of the
best group of first-year players to enter the league in the same
season in some time. Let's meet this impressive collection of
talent:
Note: The rankings below are for the 2017
season only and ranked in order of likelihood of fantasy impact.
(For example, quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson may accrue more
fantasy points given the nature of their position, but the chances
of them impacting a fantasy team are slimmer than say, a potential
fantasy WR3 in a three-WR league, because the receiver may become
an every-week fantasy starter.) The RB3/WR4-type designations
I make are what I expect that rookie to be in PPR formats this
season.
2017 Projected Role: Pure backup
to Frank Gore who should begin the season seeing a handful of
change-of-pace touches; could emerge as the primary third-down
back if he makes strides in pass pro as the season progresses
and become the lead back should Gore hit the wall or get hurt.
Mind-blowing college stat: Mack
gained 52.3 percent of his 1,182 rushing yards last season on
his 15 runs of 15-plus yards.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it:Robert Turbin and Josh Ferguson comprised
one of the worst backup running back duos in the league last year,
so Mack isn't going to need to be great in order to start the
season as the main backup to a 34-year-old starter. South Florida's
all-time leading rusher was also one of this draft class' top
big-play backs - an element that has not existed in the Colts'
running game for years. Indy's long-abused offensive line still
has work to do, but it has the makings of being an above-average
unit in 2017 if it can stay healthy, although Mack also doesn't
require a lot of time to get through the hole. The No. 143 overall
selection is a plus-receiver and should have little issue stealing
most of Turbin and Ferguson's work in the passing game (the duo
combined for 46 catches on 61 targets last year). He should also
easily exceed the duo's 62 combined carries, although the team
appears somewhat committed to keeping Turbin around as a regular
option at the goal line. Thus, Mack will probably have to do his
damage in between the 20s for as long as Gore remains healthy
and/or effective.
Why he won’t: If Gore drinks
from the fountain of youth yet again. The ageless wonder will
probably find some way to squeeze one more productive season out
of his 34-year-old body and top 200 carries for the 12th consecutive
year. At worst, the five-time Pro Bowler will probably split carries
with Mack, if only because he has earned so much trust and Indy
has a very rich quarterback they need to protect. Mack had a fumble
rate of 1.8 percent, roughly 2.5 times what is considerable ideal
by evaluators. The Colts know they need to move on from Gore at
some point in the near future, but their hand will almost have
to be forced. Indianapolis began to make some strides on the offensive
line toward the end of last year, but how much of that was a product
of Gore's straight-ahead style? While he can also run inside,
Mack is more of an outside runner who thrives in open space at
this point of his career.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: The selection
of Mack means Ferguson will be fighting for a job, as it is Ferguson's
"role" I believe the Colts had in mind for 2017 when
they drafted him. At first glance, that role netted Ferguson 35
touches last season, but Mack is a superior talent and Indy should
also be a better team than it was last year. It seems highly unlikely
Gore will top 300 touches for a second straight year in his age-34
season, so if Mack absorbs Ferguson's touches and takes 30-40
touches away from Gore, the question becomes how many he steals
from Turbin. Despite his relatively low draft position, Mack will
likely be the Colts' starter (if not featured back) in 2018, so
they will be doing him and themselves a disservice by not giving
him at least 125 touches. Of course, that assumes Gore continues
to be an iron man, which is far from a given at his age. And the
likelihood of Gore doing a slow fade during this season is exactly
why Mack needs to be taken seriously as a potential Year 1 contributor,
especially in the second half of the season. He should only be
drafted as a handcuff in fantasy, but the odds are decent he'll
be finding his way into fantasy lineups sometime in November or
December.
Fearless early-June prediction (zero starts):
111 carries for 515 yards and four TDs; 26 receptions for 195
yards and one TD
The run-first offense in Tennessee will
be the biggest concern for fantasy owners eyeing Corey Davis.
2017 Projected Role: Eventual building block; likely to begin
the season in a 1A/1B situation with Rishard Matthews - a setup
that could potentially last all season. Davis should eventually
pull away from Matthews and emerge as the primary threat, especially
in the red zone.
Mind-blowing college stat: Davis' 5,285 career receiving yards
is the best mark in FBS history, while his 52 receiving scores
ranks second all-time.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: As
far as most rookie receivers in any draft class are concerned,
Davis is ahead of the game when it comes to understanding how
to be physical and as a route-runner. The FBS' all-time leader
in career receiving yards should be an immediate factor in the
red zone and can create yards after the catch, which is a big
deal considering Tennessee's passing game won't provide the kind
of volume that most offenses will. Delanie Walker and Matthews
have already established themselves as viable threats as well,
meaning Davis should not be facing coverages designed to stop
him, at least not right away. The running game is also among the
best in league, so defenses may find themselves in a pick-your-poison
situation most weeks. Marcus Mariota has quickly established himself
as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL as well, so a
low-volume passing game (and, by extension, a lower target total)
will not necessarily preclude him from having a regular impact
on the box score week after week.
Why he won’t: There are two facts which most NFL fans cannot
deny when it comes to the Titans: 1) they are a physical, run-oriented
offense and 2) Walker and Matthews are high-quality, established
NFL targets who aren't going to stand idly by while Davis carries
the passing game. The potent rushing attack figures to remain
the focal point of the offense for at least one more year, meaning
there will be games in which three primary targets may not see
more than 15 combined targets if DeMarco Murray and/or Derrick Henry are rolling. Davis did a fine job of holding onto the ball
once he caught it while at Western Michigan (one fumble on 266
receptions over his final three years), but drops were a problem
and increased every year (11 in 2016). While the No. 5 overall
pick is able to create separation with his route-running, he is
quicker than fast and doesn't appear to have breakaway speed.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: Every owner wants the next Michael Thomas
- a player who can take the league by storm and is available in
the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. On another team, Davis could
have very well been that guy. However, there isn't much similarity
in Saints and Titans' offenses in terms of their overall philosophies,
and Walker and Matthews already have a head start in terms of
having Mariota's trust near the goal line, which is one of the
areas in which Davis is able/could be expected to make an immediate
impact. That's not to say he won't become Mariota's favorite option
eventually, but there's no guarantee it will happen early or at
all in 2017. It is not out of the question Davis will lead the
Titans in most receiving categories as a rookie, but this situation
very much has the feel of one in which all three players will
finish with 50-65 catches and five to seven touchdowns. As such,
Davis should be considered a high-upside WR4 option who could
emerge as a high-end WR3 if he really comes on toward the end
of the season.
Fearless early-June prediction (14 starts):
55 receptions for 710 yards and six TDs
2017 Projected Role: Complementary player and clear No. 2 receiver;
Week 1 starter who figures to battle Charles Clay for the right
to be Tyrod Taylor's favorite short-range target and will assume
No. 1 duties should Sammy Watkins struggle to stay healthy again.
Mind-blowing college stats: Among
college receivers with at least 100 targets last year, Jones ranked
second in lowest drop rate (3.66 percent). He was also targeted
216 times - 45 more than any other receiver - and caught a FBS
single-season record 158 passes - 21 more than any other wideout,
per Pro Football Focus.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: If
there were any questions about Jones' record-setting career being
a product of playing in a spread offense for a non-Power 5 school,
he erased those during Senior Bowl week. Although he was rarely
asked to run a vertical route at East Carolina, he showed the
ability to do so in Mobile and backed it up with a 4.45 time at
the NFL Scouting Combine. However, the real reasons Jones should
be considered a real candidate to lead his position in rookie-year
impact has to do with opportunity, competition (or lack thereof)
and the fact he has flypaper for hands. Although new OC Rick Dennison
figures to open up the offense a bit more, Buffalo will very likely
remain a mostly conservative offense, and every conservative offense
needs a dependable chain-mover like Jones. While the Bills did
address the receiver position this offseason, Corey Brown and
Andre Holmes aren't going to keep Jones out of the lineup. Watkins
has missed a total of 11 games over the past two years, so it
should go without saying that Jones will become the lead receiver
if the fourth-year pro goes down yet again. Last but certainly
not least, Jones does what every receiver should aspire to do:
catch virtually everything thrown in his direction.
Why he won’t: There is some concern the Bills either don't
have the offense to support two fantasy receivers or Taylor only
has eyes for Watkins when both players are on the field together.
After all, Robert Woods struggled to become a fantasy-relevant
option even when Watkins wasn't on the field and Jones' game shares
some similarities to Woods'. Jones did a lot of his damage on
passes at or near the line of scrimmage at East Carolina, so owners
have a right to be concerned that he'll end up fighting Clay for
shorter targets, especially if Buffalo continues to feature the
running game as much as it has recently. The No. 37 overall pick
also didn't create a lot of separation against defensive backs
in the American Athletic Conference, instead relying more on positioning
and route-running.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: It sounds so basic, yet it is very hard
to find: a college receiver who is fairly well-schooled as a route-runner
and catches pretty much everything (he was credited with a drop
on only 17 of his 360 catchable targets over his last three seasons).
He doesn't play to his timed speed or create a ton of separation,
so big plays may not be in his bag. Outside of that, Jones is
as good of bet as any rookie receiver in this class to be a high-volume
target right out of the gate. He may not be the guy in 2017 who
finds his way onto the highlight reel every week, but his four
to six catches most games should make him a receiver who can emerge
as a regular low-end fantasy WR3.
Fearless early-June prediction (15 starts):
61 receptions for 700 yards and five TDs
2017 Projected Role: Eventual building block; Latavius Murray
doesn't present a huge obstacle, but the Vikings' insistence on
a committee attack to replace an injured/suspended Adrian Peterson
in recent years suggests Murray could fill a Matt Asiata-type
role, while Jerick McKinnon may steal some passing-down snaps.
Mind-blowing college stat: Cook led the country with 99 total
missed tackles forced last season, per PFF.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: Something
of a modern-day Tiki Barber who shares similar qualities to Jamaal Charles and Devonta Freeman, Cook can do just about everything
NFL teams ask from running backs nowadays. Despite having a reputation
as a big-play runner, the 2016 Orange Bowl MVP is a willing and
able inside runner who generally gets more than what is blocked,
which is a big deal for a team like Minnesota, which was forced
to endure terrible line play for most of last year. Thankfully,
the team addressed its front five in a big way this offseason,
adding three players (projected starters in LT Riley Reiff, RT
Mike Remmers and rookie RG/C Pat Elflein - all of which should
considerable upgrades from the men occupying those spots last
season). Cook is also the best receiving back the Vikings have
employed at least since Chester Taylor. Florida State's all-time
leading rusher may not have tested out well athletically at the
NFL Scouting Combine, but the game tape reveals a player with
almost effortless speed, hip flexibility and very good feet. Cook
also showed up time after time again in big games, routinely carving
up opponents with plenty of future pros on defense such as Clemson,
Michigan, Florida and Louisville.
Why he won’t: Cook got a bit of a bum rap during the spring
for being injury-prone despite missing only one game during his
college career, but his history of hamstring and shoulder injuries
should give current and potential owners at least some pause.
He has also had three legal charges against him dropped since
2009, although there are some within the Vikings' organization
who believe getting Cook away from some bad seeds in his inner
circle in Miami may be just the thing he needs to avoid any more
trouble. There is also the small matter of his 14 career fumbles
on 763 touches; his career fumble rate of 1.8 is more than twice
as high as the number (in the 0.8 percent range) most evaluators
are comfortable with. Cook will be the most complete talent in
the running back room in Minnesota, but this current coaching
staff's aforementioned insistence on giving Asiata regular touches
at the expense of a superior talent like McKinnon does not bode
well for Cook's chances of being featured in 2016. Murray could
easily steal goal-line work, while Minnesota may ask the rookie
to lead a three-way committee early on. And let's not forget the
offensive line, which is at best a work in progress. The Vikings
will be better up front in 2017, but how much better is the question.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: Certainly one of the backs I most enjoyed
watching the most throughout the draft process, Cook has more
immediate obstacles facing him than any other potential foundation
back in this draft given his landing spot. Minnesota's defense
should give the offense plenty of chances to run the ball, but
it is unlikely to be enough for Cook to be a weekly fantasy starter
if he is in a three-way committee. In other words, he is going
to need to be far and away the best running back in camp and during
the preseason. Can that happen? Sure. Will it matter? I have my
doubts. While Cook could certainly have the occasional huge performance
as the lead man in a three-headed attack, I get the feeling his
breakout will come in 2018, as Murray's three-year deal can be
voided after this year and McKinnon will become a free agent.
If Cook emerges as the feature back at some point during the 2017
season, however, he has high-end RB2 upside.
Fearless early-June prediction (eight
starts): 170 carries for 690 yards and four TDs; 32 receptions
for 255 yards and two TDs
2017 Projected Role: Eventual building block; will battle Rob Kelley in camp and should be able to overtake him at some point
early in season, if not by Week 1.
Mind-blowing college stat: Despite fewer carries each season,
Perine saw his YPC drop each year (from 6.5 to 6.0 to 5.4). On
a related note, he recorded career-low big-run percentages (10-plus,
20-plus, etc.) across the board in his final season.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: The
Redskins wanted Matt Jones to be the 230-pound sledgehammer that
punished NFC East defenses six times a year, but ball-security
issues have him likely headed for the waiver wire at some point
this summer. Kelley did yeoman's work when called upon last season,
but he's a poor athlete by NFL standards and his 4.2 YPC last
season is more of a credit to the offensive line he ran behind
than his talent. Perine has the goods to be the 230-pound thumper
Washington desires, if only because he takes care of the ball
better than Jones and is a better and more punishing runner than
Kelley. The FBS' single-game rushing-yardage record holder was
perhaps the second-most physical back available in the draft and
one of the best in short-yardage situations, meaning he should
be considered the heavy favorite to assume goal-line duties right
away - Washington was 29th in red zone TD efficiency last year.
The Redskins graded out as one of the better run-blocking offensive
lines a season ago as well and return all the key pieces of a
front five that should only improve with another year together.
Why he won’t: It is entirely possible Perine may enter
the season as only the goal-line back. HC Jay Gruden could easily
roll with the known (in this case, Kelley) over the unknown (Perine)
for half of the season or more. Kelley created enough goodwill
that he will probably be given multiple opportunities to fail
before a change is made and there is a distinct possibility he
will remain in the mix all season long if Gruden feels as if he
should ease the rookie into the lead-back role. Chris Thompson
is going to see the majority of work on passing downs and whenever
Washington find itself in comeback/hurry-up/end-of-game situations.
Perine's likely heavy usage at the goal line alone won't be enough
to make him a weekly fantasy starter, while Thompson's presence
certainly caps his PPR upside. It's also questionable whether
or not Washington has added enough playmakers on defense to create
the weekly grind-it-out conditions that would obviously play into
Perine's ability to finish games.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: If common sense wins out and the rookie
is handed the early-down reins right away, Perine could top 1,000
rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. As any veteran owner knows, though,
what appears to be logical to most owners doesn't always play
out on the field. In what I would imagine is a best-case scenario,
Perine starts the season sharing early-down carries with Kelley
and takes over the lead-back role in October, all the while serving
as the main goal-line back. In the worst-case scenario, Kelley
builds upon his early-offseason hype and causes the No. 114 overall
pick to settle for an even split of the carries all season long.
There is little doubt in my mind Perine SHOULD be the top fantasy
back in Washington, and that is why he is ranked this high. However,
I find myself not able to trust Gruden to do what I believe is
the right thing year after year, and I suspect he'll find some
way to occasionally sabotage what could be a pretty special rookie
season for Perine, who I believe has RB2 upside but will settle
in as an inconsistent flex - assuming I am right about Gruden.
Fearless early-June prediction (three
starts): 182 carries for 790 yards and eight TDs; 13 receptions
for 80 yards and no TDs
2017 Projected Role: Complementary player; change-of-pace option
behind Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson who is expected to fulfill
the Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles "satellite back" role
in this offense.
Mind-blowing college stat: Kamara forced 23 missed tackles on
40 receptions last year and produced 23 touchdowns in only 284
offensive touches over two seasons at Tennessee.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: From
a pure upside perspective - both individually and fantasy-wise
- Kamara is drooling with it. Individually, he was at times an
all-purpose yardage machine (the 2016 Texas A&M game is a
good example) who looked like he was easily a top-five running
back in this loaded draft class. From a fantasy perspective, most
owners know New Orleans' running backs - as a group - have finished
in the top eight of PPR fantasy scoring every year since 2010
and understand how important Bush and Sproles have been in regard
to reaching that rarified air for six straight seasons. Kamara
is more late-career Bush than a younger version of Bush or Sproles,
and he is likely capable of handling something more than a satellite-back
role should Ingram and/or Peterson get hurt. However, the most
likely reason to believe the No. 67 overall pick will probably
outperform this ranking - beyond the fact he is a good fit for
the role he is expected to play - is the fact HC Sean Payton already
seems pretty convinced he knows how he will use Kamara. That alone
puts him well ahead of most rookies. Payton also expects to use
him on punts, making him an even stronger target in leagues which
reward return yardage.
Why he won’t: Outside of the fact that no one on the roster
(outside of perhaps Travaris Cadet, if he makes the team) can
fill the role he is expected to fill, where do we start? Ingram
and Peterson could each easily surpass 200 touches (equals out
to 12.5 touches per game for both players), leaving a third running
back with a ceiling of roughly 100. It's one thing if 70 percent
of those are receptions, but is that something owners can bank
on? (Sproles enjoyed top-12 finishes in two of his three seasons
with New Orleans but had no fewer than 150 opportunities - targets
plus carries - in either year.) Kamara also never carried the
ball 20 times in a game in college or led his team in rushing
for a season - two baffling facts that speak to his inconsistency.
Durability and dependability have also not been particular strengths
throughout his career. Ingram and Peterson figures to gobble up
all the rushing touchdowns inside the red zone - except for the
unpredictable ones in end-of-half/hurry-up situations - so the
rookie's value will be heavily reliant on Ingram not stealing
too many receptions.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: People have been quick to use the Saints'
2009 Super Bowl model of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush
and fill in the names of Peterson, Ingram and Kamara, respectively.
The problems with that are AP is a better power back than Bell,
Ingram is certainly at least as good as Thomas - if not better
- and Kamara MAY eventually be something approaching Bush. Thus,
when projecting touches for this backfield, there is no guarantee
the rookie will see enough every week to be a consistent force
so long as everybody is healthy. If (and most likely when) one
of the two older guys get hurt, then we can discuss the rookie's
huge upside and dream of a top-20 fantasy finish. Expecting both
players to miss enough games (let's say four apiece) so Kamara
can boost his year-end bottom line is risky business, however,
even in the world of fantasy football. The rookie should be a
solid RB4 in PPR capable of a few splash games, but owners should
not count on him becoming a consistent fantasy force, at least
not right away.
Fearless early-June prediction (two starts):
72 carries for 330 yards and two TDs; 55 receptions for 410 yards
and four TDs
2017 Projected Role: Possible building block; may begin the season
in a timeshare with Spencer Ware but could emerge as the lead
back by the second half of the season.
Mind-blowing college stats: Hunt committed one fumble on 722
total touches over his last three years at Toledo and tallied
98 total missed tackles forced (second in the country) per PFF.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: Can
you remember a time when an Andy Reid-coached team didn't have
a dynamic, all-purpose running back? Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook,
LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles have all blossomed in Reid's offenses
over the years. Even Ware emerged as a surefire fantasy RB1 early
last season. In short, Reid can either make running backs produce
in his system or he has quite the eye for identifying exactly
what traits he wants from the position. Like all the aforementioned
"Reid backs", Hunt is very good as a runner and receiver.
Unlike Ware, he is incredibly explosive and was one of the most
elusive backs available in this draft class. While Ware was the
talk of the fantasy football world for the first two months of
last season, the Chiefs really missed Charles' explosiveness.
Hunt doesn't have that kind of long speed or big-play ability,
but the rookie literally looks like he has been fired out of a
cannon as soon as he gets the ball. As mentioned above, Hunt doesn't
fumble either. For a back as elusive as he is, he does not lack
for power, runs inside well and possesses outstanding balance.
Why he won’t: Ware established
he is a highly capable NFL running back last season, so Hunt isn't
going to win this job with a great preseason game or two; he's
going to need to outperform the veteran all summer long. That's
a pretty tall order. There is a fairly strong possibility the
same committee Reid was considering when Charles was supposed
to come back last season will be employed in 2017, at least in
September and maybe through October, maybe at which point Reid
will reassess. Reid also admitted before the draft he is a big
fan of Ware ("the kid's dirty
tough and he's going to give you an honest down every snap"),
so he's probably going to keep goal-line duties almost regardless
of how well Hunt plays.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: If it seems as if Hunt doesn't have
a ton of weaknesses in his game, it's because he really doesn't.
Ware is the major reason he isn't one of the top three names on
this list. While it shouldn't surprise anyone if Hunt ends up
being the lead back in KC toward the end of what figures to be
another playoff run, Ware probably isn't giving up goal-line duties
anytime soon. Therefore, potential owners will likely need to
be satisfied with whatever they can get from Hunt in between the
20s and consider any touchdowns he might score in close a blessing.
The Chiefs are one of the teams capable of having two productive
fantasy running backs, however, so owners should be able to get
at least flex-level production from him while the playing time
sorts itself out. Greedy owners will always want more, but "more"
may not come until 2018, when Hunt has hopefully proved he is
on his way to becoming the next great "Reid back".
Fearless early-June prediction (four starts):
173 carries for 820 yards and five TDs; 28 receptions for 235
yards and two TDs
2017 Projected Role: Building block; could start out in a committee
with Jeremy Hill to ease his transition to the pro game and/or
share passing-game work with Giovani Bernard if he is completely
healthy by camp, but the odds are relatively strong he will be
featured at some point.
Mind-blowing college stat: Mixon ranked tied for first among
FBS running backs in 2016 with 26 scrimmage plays of 20-plus yards
and first with 15 scrimmage plays of 30-plus yards.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: Most
of the league was in agreement that Mixon would have been a first-round
pick were it not for his well-documented off-field history. There
is also little debate he was as good of a running back prospect
as this loaded draft class had to offer. Hill has been largely
ineffective since his brilliant rookie season and Bernard is coming
off a November ACL tear, so the "name value" of the
rookie's immediate competition far outweighs their recent production.
Mixon is sensational as a receiver and performed well in a small
sample size of pass protection reps in 2016, meaning Bernard may
not have a role to come back to even when he is 100 percent. In
addition to his ability to contribute in the passing game, the
one thing that probably allows the Oklahoma product to stand out
the most is how elusive he is for a 230-pound back. As sacrilegious
as it may seem to compare a committee college back to David Johnson,
there are a lot of parallels between the two. Mixon should rarely
face a loaded box either; A.J. Green regularly sees coverage tilted
in his direction, rookie John Ross should emerge as one of the
league's better deep threats quickly and Tyler Eifert (when healthy)
can stretch the seam as well as any tight end.
Why he won’t: His well-chronicled off-field incidents notwithstanding,
Mixon would have ideally landed in a better situation than Cincinnati,
more from an off-field prospective than an on-field one. Although
the Bengals aren't overloaded with questionable off-field decision-makers
to the degree they used to be, it would have been preferable for
him to go to a team without the likes of Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones on the roster. Call it a gut feeling based on some of his
interviews this spring (and I hope I'm wrong), but I think there
is an very good chance he will be suspended for off-field conduct
at least once during his rookie contract. Regarding his situation
on the field, Cincinnati's once potent offensive line is now young
and untested. And despite Hill's lack of production over the last
two years, he has remained a quality goal-line back, so unless
he is traded as has been rumored, Mixon may not get the kind of
goal-line looks many might expect. To that end, the rookie gets
by more on elusiveness than physicality at the moment despite
his 230-pound frame, so he's probably going to need to get it
done in other areas in 2017.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: The range of potential outcomes for
Mixon's rookie season - much less his career - are about as limitless
as any running back in recent memory. He is talented enough to
overcome what projects as an average run-blocking unit and he
certainly has a supporting cast capable of forcing defenses into
nickel personnel on a regular basis. On the other hand, Hill could
end up stealing his short-range scoring opportunities and/or Mixon
could be forced to share passing-down work with Bernard. And,
of course, at what point does he get tired of being asked about
what he did as an 18-year-old? The odds Mixon emerges as the main
back at some point during the season are pretty strong, but I'm
not so convinced it will happen that I'm going to view him as
a RB2 candidate, at least not yet. He is an ideal flex option
for early drafters with week- and league-winning upside, however,
and someone I would happily pursue as an RB3 in the sixth round
or so, especially if I like the first two backs I drafted in the
first four to five rounds.
Fearless early-June prediction (10 starts):
183 carries for 815 yards and five TDs; 43 receptions for 365
yards and two TDs
Christian McCaffrey's all-purpose abilities
should allow him to make an immediate fantasy impact.
2017 Projected Role: Building block; will be asked to serve as
an all-purpose dynamo sooner than later. Should split carries
with Jonathan Stewart right away and assume change-of-pace/return
duties as soon as he arrives in training camp. He could emerge
as a PPR superstar in the event Stewart loses multiple games due
to injury.
Mind-blowing college stat: McCaffrey amassed 6,191 all-purpose
yards in his final two seasons at Stanford - the most in a two-year
span by any player in college football history.
Why he will live up to this ranking and
perhaps exceed it: An argument can be made McCaffrey could
have been drafted in the first round as a receiver this year.
The single-season NCAA record-holder in all-purpose yards could
very well end up being this generation's Marshall Faulk or Brian
Westbrook if Carolina is willing to be creative with him and Cam
Newton embraces how easily he can create yards by himself.
McCaffrey has no glaring weakness and only parts in his game he
needs to refine through more reps and NFL-level coaching. Despite
concerns about a lack of muscle in his lower half, he's also a
stronger runner (3.3 yards after contact per attempt) than most
expect for someone with his size (roughly 205 pounds). To that
end, GM Dave Gettleman stated Hall-of-Famer Curtis Martin was
the best inside runner he has ever seen and went on to say McCaffrey
is "right
there with him". One of the many great things about the 2015
Heisman Trophy runner-up is the fact Stanford utilized a lot of
power runs in its offense, but his change-of-direction skills
and ability to work in space makes him a perfect fit out of the
shotgun, which has been a staple of the Panthers' offense since
Newton arrived.
Why he won’t: IF Newton remains at least a secondary option
at the goal line and IF Stewart stays healthy enough to top 200
carries for the third straight season, there may not be enough
carries for McCaffrey to get the 800 or so rushing yards he's
probably going to need to be a weekly fantasy starter. Even though
the rookie should be more than capable at the goal line, it seems
reasonable Stewart and Newton may get those chances on a more
regular basis, at least early on. There's also the small matter
of Newton being willing/able to check it down on a regular basis
(Gettleman has admitted part of the inspiration for drafting McCaffrey
was watching how much Dion Lewis and James White contributed to
the Patriots' Super Bowl run). We've seen it time and again: just
because a general manager gives a quarterback a shiny toy to play
with doesn't mean he is going to cooperate as often as he should.
In four seasons under OC Mike Shula, no running back has finished
with more than Mike Tolbert's 27 catches in 2013. With that said,
I have no concern about Newton's last-place ranking on throws
from 0-5 yards last year. McCaffrey is light years ahead of Tolbert
or Fozzy Whittaker in that regard.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: An investment in McCaffrey is one in
which a fantasy owner is betting against Carolina's recent offensive
history and betting on Shula's ability to mold his scheme around
the talents of his best players, much like he has done with Newton.
Generally, when the emphasis to change a part of a culture - in
this case, making more of an effort to protect Newton - comes
from the top - in this case, the general manager - it tends to
happen. McCaffrey is going to be a godsend for owners in leagues
which reward return yardage, and it doesn't require a lot of imagination
to dream up a scenario in which he ends up as the NFL Offensive
Rookie of the Year, either because Stewart misses significant
time due to injury again and/or how much McCaffrey will contribute
as a rusher, receiver and returner even if Stewart/Newton remain
healthy. There are only five running backs in NFL history to reach
800 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving in their rookie season;
McCaffrey could easily be the sixth.
Fearless early-June prediction (eight
starts): 180 carries for 825 yards and four TDs; 54 receptions
for 415 yards and three TDs
2017 Projected Role: Building block; could begin season losing
a few passing-down and change-of-pace snaps to T.J. Yeldon, but
should be the featured back for the majority of the season.
Mind-blowing college stat: Fournette faced eight in the box on
67 percent of his runs (average college back is 31 percent) and
nine in the box 22 percent of the time.
Why he will live up to this ranking and perhaps exceed it: Talent
and opportunity are two of the most important traits for any fantasy
running back to succeed, and Fournette has plenty of both. The
No. 4 overall pick is a tone-setter for an offense that hasn't
had one since Maurice Jones-Drew in his prime, and a player capable
of helping the Jaguars "hide" QB Blake Bortles if necessary.
Fournette has an extremely rare combination of power, burst and
explosion for a back who typically goes about 230 pounds, and
it is safe to say Yeldon and/or Chris Ivory won't be stealing
much goal-line work from him. The LSU product got a bad rap during
the draft process about being a zero in the passing game; it would
be more accurate to say he hasn’t had much of a chance to
show off what skills he has as a receiver yet. In the limited
opportunities he had in college, he showed capable hands and actually
graded out well in protection. And one of these years, Jacksonville's
execution on defense will catch up with its talent. When that
happens, there should be no shortage of carries for Jaguars' runners.
Why he won’t: C Brandon Linder graded out well as a run
blocker in 2016, but he was about the only Jacksonville offensive
lineman able to make that claim. Second-round T/G Cam Robinson
should help out fairly quickly in that regard, but how soon? LT
Branden Albert, who was acquired from the Miami Dolphins this
spring, is coming off the worst year of his career by far and,
based on his actions so far, he doesn't seem particularly thrilled
about working for his new employer. There's no question Fournette's
most immediate obstacle to superstardom will be the men tasked
with the job to clear a path for him. His physical - almost violent
- running style may also work against his ability to hold up year
after year, meaning he could very well be a regular on the injury
report. As referenced above, it remains to be seen if he needs
to come off the field on passing downs. However, it would be more
accurate to say whether or not Jacksonville decides whether it
wants to carve out a role for Yeldon or not, because Fournette
is - at the very least - competent as a receiver.
2017 Fantasy Assessment: In terms of what owners can realistically
expect, Fournette should be able to come close to matching Todd Gurley's production (1,294 total yards and 10 touchdowns) from
his rookie season. His talent makes that projection - especially
the yardage - seem low, but it is important to remember the Jaguars
haven't had a back come close to those numbers since 2012. Fournette
is also probably not the highest-upside rookie for redraft owners,
but he appears to have the most going for him. For all the reasons
I noted earlier, there is no reason to believe we are about to
see a repeat of Ezekiel Elliott's incredible debut. As long as
owners realize he should enough work to be a steady RB2 who will
occasionally serve as a RB1, they should be happy.
Fearless early-June prediction (eight
starts): 265 carries for 1,075 yards and seven TDs; 27
receptions for 195 yards and one TD
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.