Eight years ago, I introduced "The Dirty Dozen" and "The
Delicious Dozen" around Thanksgiving time. (Here is last
week's Delicious Dozen.) The idea then - as it is today - was
to identify negative and positive receiver matchups, respectively,
as a way to prepare owners for the upcoming stretch of fantasy games
that usually determine fantasy championships.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down - and even fewer do it in much detail. Until
this becomes a more common practice, thousands of fantasy managers
who will avoid and target matchups they shouldn't.
The point is the fantasy industry as a whole tends to rely on
name recognition when it comes to avoiding a potential matchup
rather than do some research to find out which defenders are playing
well consistently. They also tend to stick with their opinions
about struggling corners for far too long when they finally break
through and begin playing well. The truth is defensive players
ebb and flow in much the same way offensive players do.
Note: The cutoff for this piece was 330
coverage snaps. At roughly 30 coverage snaps per game, we should
be able to eliminate any players who are not "full-timers."
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
keep in mind that receivers move across the formation a lot, while
most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners
on one side of the formation, so this is far from an exact science.
In cases in which a receiver there isn't a discernible difference
in how often a receiver plays on one side of the field or the
other (which is quite common), the most likely player to see primary
coverage from the cornerback below will be listed first and the
receiver expected to see less of him will be listed second.
All coverage data courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
*** - Indicates the cornerback has been/will be used as a "shadow"
Hayward is the rare aging player (32 years old) afforded a legitimate
chance to recapture his former glory. Perhaps the most interesting
part about it all is the fact he was able to change teams but
keep the same defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley), and perhaps
it was because of Bradley that he was given a legitimate chance
and is taking advantage. It has not been all sunshine for him
in his new home, however, as he has allowed quarterbacks to complete
each of their throws in his coverage in three of his last five
games. All four of his worst coverage grades per PFF have come
in the last six games, while four of the five games in which he
has recorded a passer rating against of at least 91.0 have come
over the same span. It does not mean he is becoming a target for
fantasy managers or DFS players though. Although Michael Gallup
(3-for-3, 90 yards) enjoyed success against him on Thanksgiving
Day, Hayward has only surrendered a mere 18 completions on 34
throws for 245 yards and zero touchdowns in his coverage for the
season.
There was always a good chance that Jackson would prove to be
a strong addition to any defense if his body stopped betraying
him as it did throughout his first four years in Tennessee. So
far, so good in New York. Whereas Hayward's passer rating against
has spiked in recent weeks, Jackson has been playing at an exceptional
level in his last four-plus games, yielding 10 scoreless catches
on 25 targets for 70 yards over that time before making an early
exit due to a quad injury in Week 12. Even more notable, quarterbacks
have failed to exceed a passer rating of 64.6 in his last four
outings. For the season, Jackson is allowing a completion rate
of only 57.6 percent. He has given up a mere two touchdowns -
the last one coming in Week 6. Perhaps the most impressive part
is opponents are now taking more shots at teammate James Bradberry,
who is still one of the more feared cornerbacks in the league
despite going through one of his worst seasons as a pro.
Week 13: Albert Wilson/DeVante Parker (Dolphins) Week 14: Jalen Guyton/Mike Williams (Chargers) Week 15: Michael Gallup/Amari Cooper (Cowboys) Week 16: Jalen Reagor/DeVonta Smith (Eagles) Week 17: Darnell Mooney/Marquise Goodwin (Bears)
10. Darius Slay,
Eagles (Passer Rating Against: 71.3) ***
* Has lined up on the left side on 499 of his 725 defensive snaps.
Slay has lined up exclusively on the left side of the defense
in seven games and split his time on the left and right side almost
equally in the other five, suggesting he is one of several corners
in the league who will shadow when DC Jonathan Gannon believes
the opposition has a receiver worthy of being followed. Except
for a nightmarish effort against the Cowboys in Week 3 (in which
he surrendered touchdowns to Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson)
and another uneven showing in Week 9 versus the Chargers (allowed
a touchdown to Donald Parham and a 49-yard catch to Mike Williams),
it has been mostly smooth sailing for the 30-year-old. In his
other 10 games combined, he has snagged three interceptions while
yielding 143 yards and no TDs. Week 6 against the Bucs and Week
7 versus the Raiders are the only other times quarterbacks have
recorded a passer rating higher than 75.7 in his coverage.
Week 13: Corey Davis/Elijah Moore (Jets) Week 14: bye Week 15: Terry McLaurin (Football Team) Week 16: Kadarius Toney/Kenny Golladay (Giants) Week 17: Terry McLaurin (Football Team)
* Has lined up in the slot on 322 of his 592 defensive snaps;
has also lined up on at left cornerback on 202 of his defensive
snaps.
It has been a bit of a mixed bag for Murphy. In four games, quarterbacks
have enjoyed a passer rating of at least 106.3. In his other six
outings, that number has been 70.5 or lower. The good news for
Murphy is that three of his bad games happened consecutively in
Weeks 7-9. In the two games since, he has returned to being very
stingy. If we remove his poor three-game stretch from consideration,
he has tallied three interceptions while allowing 18 catches and
one touchdown on his other 35 targets. Perhaps just as impressively,
receivers have failed to top 28 yards in his coverage in half
of his 10 games, including each of his last four. That is a far
cry from the 57 or more yards he gave up in four of his first
six. Considering Marco Wilson appeared in last week's Delicious
Dozen, it makes much more sense to target him (on the left side
of the offensive formation) than Murphy for fantasy purposes.
Week 13: Allen Robinson/Darnell Mooney (Bears) Week 14: Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson (Rams) Week 15: Amon-Ra St. Brown/Kalif Raymond (Lions) Week 16: Zach Pascal/Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) Week 17: CeeDee Lamb/Michael Gallup (Cowboys)
Of all the players that we could have expected to see on this
list two years in a row, I doubt anyone could have imagined it
would be Oruwariye. Unlike last
year's appearance, this one is not for all the right reasons.
The Penn State alum has posted coverage grades of 48.0 or lower
in six of 11 games and allowed quarterbacks to register a passer
rating of at least 118.8 four times. So why is he on THIS list?
Oruwariye enters Week 13 in a four-way tie for third in the league
with five interceptions, including one in each of his last two
outings. Otherwise, he ranks 24th among corners who qualified
for this list in most yards allowed (430). He is also giving up
a completion on 66 percent of the throws in his coverage. This
does not mean the third-year pro is a fraud - it is rather impressive
that a player on a winless team in Week 13 has the ball and anticipation
skills necessary to pick off five passes on a defense that has
a lackluster pass rush. What it does mean is that Oruwariye is
not a matchup to fear for fantasy purposes in 2021.
* Has lined up on the right side on 496 of his 689 defensive
snaps.
Considering how much interceptions drive passer ratings down
for quarterbacks, it is rather amazing Diggs does not appear later
on this list. How much does it matter for cornerbacks, you ask?
Diggs recorded six interceptions through his first five games
- including at least one in each outing - and quarterbacks did
not post a passer rating higher than 70.1 in his coverage. Since
then, he has only two interceptions and quarterbacks have enjoyed
a passer rating of at least 116.7 in four of six contests. While
there is no question his ball and anticipation skills are among
the best in the league (one of several reasons why he leads the
NFL with eight interceptions), it is hiding the fact he has surrendered
the most yards of any cornerback in 2021 (728). The average yards
per reception in his coverage is the second-highest of any player
who qualified to be on this list (16.9). The most concerning part:
quarterbacks have completed at least 70 percent of their passes
in his coverage in five of the last six after failing to top 50
percent in four of the first five games of the season.
* Has lined up on the left side on 306 of 307 defensive snaps
since Week 5.
Denver has taken its lumps publicly for passing on a quarterback
in this spring's draft (Justin Fields and Mac Jones were still
available at No. 9), but it would seem Surtain is well on his
way to being the same kind of impact player his father was for
most of his career in Miami. After quarterbacks were able to post
a passer rating of at least 101.9 in the younger Surtain's coverage
in two of his first four games as a pro, he has kept that number
below 80 in all but one game since. The rookie enjoyed a four-game
stretch after his rough start in which he did not allow more than
27 yards and has held his own despite a tough draw lately (faced
off regularly against Amari Cooper, DeVonta Smith and Mike Williams),
giving up 74 of the 142 yards he has allowed over that span after
the catch. He likely cemented his place on this list with a two-interception
performance in Week 12, although the more telling statistic about
his recent improvement might be that receivers have caught a mere
12 passes on 30 targets in his coverage in the last five contests,
lowering quarterbacks' completion rate while throwing at him to
53.2 for the season.
Week 13: Tyreek Hill/Byron Pringle (Chiefs) Week 14: Kalif Raymond/Josh Reynolds (Lions) Week 15: Tee Higgins (Bengals) Week 16: Zay Jones/DeSean Jackson (Raiders) Week 17: Jalen Guyton/Mike Williams (Chargers)
* Has lined up in the slot on 459 of his 563 defensive snaps.
There are several reasons why Buffalo's defense has taken a step
forward in 2021. Among them: watching Johnson dramatically increase
his PFF coverage grade from 58.4 last season to 82.9 so far in
2021. It could be argued his worst games of the season have been
the last two, but it is clear he has set a high standard for himself
when five receptions on seven targets for 59 yards and a touchdown
(to Jonathan Taylor) is a bad stretch. Taylor's touchdown is the
only one he has allowed in his coverage this season, while the
36 yards he gave up in Week 12 were the most he has permitted
in a game since Week 5. Receivers have only caught only 53.2 percent
of the throws in his coverage. Perhaps just as impressively, Johnson
has surrendered a catch rate higher than 50 percent in only two
outings. In case it was not obvious by now, fantasy managers do
not want their receivers lining up in the slot against Buffalo
right now.
Week 13: Jakobi Meyers (Patriots) Week 14: Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) Week 15: Brandon Zylstra/Terrace Marshall Jr./Robby Anderson (Panthers) Week 16: Jakobi Meyers (Patriots) Week 17: Russell Gage/Olamide Zaccheaus (Falcons)
********Note: Tre'Davious White (61.4) was No. 4 on this list
but was lost for the season in Week 12 with a torn ACL. ***********
* Has lined up on the left side on 508 of his 619 defensive snaps.
Whether it is due to the arrival of DC Dean Pees or just the
natural progression of a player taking the next step in his second
NFL season, Terrell has emerged as a cornerstone for the Atlanta
defense in 2021. He is allowing a league-low (among cornerbacks
that qualify for this list) 50 percent of the passes in his coverage
to be completed and has not given up more than 32 yards receiving
in any game. For the season, receivers have accumulated a mere
130 yards and two touchdowns (Marquez Callaway, Nelson Agholor)
against him. He has surrendered one catch of more than 20 yards.
He is among the league leaders in pass breakups with seven, suggesting
he could easily have more than one interception. Unsurprisingly,
his 88.2 PFF coverage grade ranks as the best among cornerbacks
who qualify for this list, just ahead of Jalen Ramsey (87.0).
Week 13: Tyler Johnson (Buccaneers) Week 14: DJ Moore/Robby Anderson (Panthers) Week 15: Deebo Samuel (if healthy)/Trent Sherfield (49ers) Week 16: Kalif Raymond/Josh Reynolds (Lions) Week 17: Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders (Bills)
* Has lined up on the right side on 442 of his 523 defensive
snaps.
Tampa Bay can only wonder what could have been with its pass
defense this season. Carlton Davis was emerging as one of the
league's best young corners at the end of last year but has been
sidelined since Week 4 with a quad injury. (He has a shot to play
in Week 13.) Slot corner Sean Murphy-Bunting just returned from
a lengthy injury absence himself. While not to the same degree
as Davis last year, Dean is stepping up his game in 2021. Since
the season opener in which he gave up five catches for 58 yards
and a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, Dean has permitted
only 17 receptions for 192 yards and no TDs on 33 targets over
his last nine outings. A good chunk of that production came against
in the Bucs' surprising Week 10 loss to Washington, as the combination
of Terry McLaurin (two catches, 27 yards), DeAndre Carter (one
catch, 22 yards), J.D. McKissic (one catch, 11 yards) and John
Bates (one catch, 18 yards) accounted for over 40 percent of the
yards he has allowed since Week 1.
Durability has not been Ward's calling card since he was drafted
in 2018 (he played a maximum of 12 games over his first three
seasons), but he has generally been among the better corners in
the league when he has been on the field. He got off to a rough
start by allowing five catches on seven targets in the opener.
His worst game by far was in Week 2 when the combination of Brandin
Cooks (three catches, 45 yards), Nico Collins (one catch, 32 yards)
and Chris Conley (one catch, 13 yards) roughed him up for 90 of
the 269 yards receiving he has permitted all season. Ward has
not allowed more than 32 yards in any other game. He did not give
up his first touchdown catch until falling victim to a scramble-drill
play to Mark Andrews in Week 12. Just as impressively, he has
surrendered only 16 catches on 29 targets since Week 2. While
Ward is not a shadow corner per se, fantasy managers should assume
Ward will line up across from the opponent's top perimeter receiver
- assuming DC Joe Woods considers him worthy of such treatment
- approximately 60 percent of the time.
Week 13: bye Week 14: Marquise Brown (Ravens) Week 15: DeSean Jackson/Zay Jones (Raiders) Week 16: Davante Adams (Packers) Week 17: Diontae Johnson (Steelers)
* Has lined up on the right side on 517 of his 662 defensive
snaps.
What does a cornerback need to make it to the top of the Dirty
Dozen list (or bottom, depending on your perspective)? It helps
if he allows a low catch rate, gives up a minimal number of touchdowns
and is fortunate enough to rank among the league leaders in interceptions.
Check, check and check. Quarterbacks have often tried to test
the former undrafted free agent out of Maryland this season and
the results have not been overly favorable. Jackson is allowing
a completion on only 35 of the 69 times he has been targeted for
472 yards and one touchdown versus seven interceptions. The 50.7
catch rate allowed is second only to A.J. Terrell, while his seven
picks are good for second in the NFL behind only Trevon Diggs.
Last week against Tennessee marked the first time since Week 6
(Dallas) that Jackson allowed receivers to catch more than half
of their targets in a game. Even with that blip on the radar,
quarterbacks have not posted a passer rating higher than 40 against
him in four straight contests. The one touchdown he surrendered
this season came in Week 5. Jackson may not be the second coming
of Darrelle Revis and will give up the occasional big play (i.e.
41-yarder to Keenan Allen, 67-yarder to Chris Moore). While there
is no guarantee that receivers will struggle against Jackson in
every game, fantasy owners would be wise to downgrade their receiver
from a WR1 to a WR2 or a WR2 to a WR3 at the very least in the
week(s) he faces Jackson.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
