Pre-Draft Fantasy Prospect
Grade* (out of 50): 42.0
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
The first thing that jumps out about Burks is his size (6-2, 225).
Unsurprisingly, he is a headache for defenses after the catch. His
9.2 yards after catch per reception is among the best in the draft
class, which only speaks to how difficult he can be to bring down
and how much he seems to enjoy creating contact. Perhaps the best
part of his game is that he is more than just a big receiver who
wins with physicality; he is also a big-play receiver who can beat
defenses vertically. In short, he boasts unusual athleticism for
a receiver of his size. This shows up repeatedly on the rare occasion
that a cornerback attempts to press him at the line of scrimmage
(something that happened only 39 times in 2021, per Pro Football
Focus). Arkansas was not shy about moving him all over the formation
either. While he was used primarily out of the slot (82.9 percent
of his career snaps came inside), he logged time on the outside,
in the backfield and even occasionally as an H-back. As a result
of this usage, it is reasonable to assume his football IQ is high
even if the Razorbacks did not ask him to run a full route tree.
Negatives
As is often the case in today's college game, evaluators have
little choice but to guess on a wide receiver prospect's route-running
skills. Burks showed the aptitude to be solid in this area, but
he ran an inordinate number of bubble screens and go routes with
the occasional slant and scramble-drill catch mixed in. Pro Football
Focus data backs this up, as he ranked 37th in college football
with 18 catches on screen passes for 219 yards (ninth) and 25th
in deep catches (12) for 456 yards (24th). Making his evaluation
even more difficult is that NFL teams would rather not be forced
to put a player with X receiver size (like Burks has) in the slot.
(Did Razorbacks OC Kendal Briles line him up inside so much because
he wanted to guarantee easy touches for his best receiver? Or was
it because Briles didn't think Burks had the route-running nuance
to win outside consistently?) Between the lack of physical coverage
he saw in college and how often he lined up inside in college, his
ability to be a potentially dominant outside receiver in the NFL
is more of a projection than it might be for most receivers with
his size and athleticism. Burks obviously possesses the size to
be a very good blocker in the NFL, but his effort in this area was
inconsistent at best.
Bottom Line
A player with Burks' demonstrated versatility and size will likely
draw lazy comparisons to Cordarrelle Patterson, but that is not
what he is - at least not right now. While he certainly has the
size to handle a carry or two out of the backfield, it is hard to
imagine him being a true Swiss Army knife kind of player at the
next level. Creating separation could be an issue early on for the
former three-sport athlete, as there is minimal proof that his route-running
is refined enough to get open consistently. His performances in
high-profile games this season against Alabama (8-179-2) and Texas
A&M (6-167-1) provide hope that he could be the next A.J. Brown,
but duds against Texas (5-37-0), Georgia (3-10-0) and LSU (4-16-0)
suggest that his ceiling may not be that high. While Burks figures
to be a favorite of many given his combination of size and athleticism,
he profiles much more as a high-upside complementary receiver who
may end up being a long-term big slot. He has alpha wideout traits,
however, and could eventually grow into that role early in his career
if he is blessed with a strong position coach who drills him tirelessly
on the importance of route-running. A poor position coach could
cause him to begin his career in the same way Laviska Shenault has.
--- Predict
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now. Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
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