As was the case last week, my goal will be to highlight some non-elite players who could be cheaper trade targets (maybe because they are coming off a down game or two, battling through an injury or attached to a bad offense) because they are poised to enjoy a strong second half of the season based on multiple "soft" matchups. I will highlight four receivers and two tight ends this week. The focus will be the rest of the fantasy regular season. I will likely highlight favorable matchups for the fantasy playoffs at some point in the coming weeks.

Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent what should be unfavorable matchups.

Wide Receivers

Brian Thomas Jr. (MIN, @DET, bye, HOU, @TEN)

It could be argued Thomas is already an elite player. That's fair, although an argument could also be made that elite receivers tend to earn at least five targets in more than half of their games. Thomas has five or fewer targets in three straight and five of nine games overall. What has put him on the brink of being an elite player is the frequency with which he is hitting the big play, which tends to be an inconsistent thing until a player proves otherwise. He has caught each of his three contested-catch targets on deep throws (20-plus yards) and recorded a reception on eight of his 13 deep targets overall for 325 yards and three touchdowns. Only Jayden Reed (90 percent) and George Pickens (64.3) have a higher catch rate than Thomas (61.5) on deep throws among receivers with at least 10 such targets.

The case for Thomas being a second-half stud was already strong before Jacksonville lost Christian Kirk (collarbone) for the season in Week 8. Gabe Davis has predictably done next to nothing for the offense this season outside of Week 6 (21.5 of 51.7 PPR fantasy points came in that game). Parker Washington is a better fourth receiver than most teams have, but he cannot be expected to be a one-for-one replacement for Kirk in the slot. Even if we assume Evan Engram continues to average the 7.5 targets he is seeing since his return in Week 6, Thomas is a near-lock to see more targets than he did over the first eight contests (6.1).

While we did not get to see what his upside could be in Week 9 due to his chest injury and an improving Eagles defense, better days should be ahead shortly. The Vikings (Week 10) and Lions (Week 11) have done a great job of defending the run all season and tend to work in positive game script just about every week. Minnesota has surrendered the most points per game to receivers (43.6), while Detroit ranks third (42.2). The Texans check in at No. 7 (35.9). The Titans (Week 14) rank as the third-stingiest defense against receivers, but some of their success in that area is a product of Tennessee's opponents only targeting their receivers 139 times because the Titans have trailed by at least one score most of the season. Even if the Titans are as good as their fantasy points against numbers say they are, Thomas has among the most pristine matchups for any receiver leading up to the fantasy playoffs.

Josh Downs (BUF, @NYJ, DET, @NE, bye)

Downs should be an obvious starter at this point. Then again, the notion that Downs was ever a free agent in traditional leagues boggles my mind. He was a sixth-round value on my Big Boards despite entering the season with a high-ankle sprain. This is a player who was not healthy for roughly 75 percent of his rookie season and still earned 95 targets. There were also multiple glowing reports about him being the most dominant receiver in training camp.

Let's cut Downs some slack and say it took him two weeks to trust his ankle again after missing the first two weeks of the season to complete his recovery. Per Fantasy Points Data, Downs ranked 18th among all receivers (minimum 100 routes) in Average Separation Score in Weeks 5-9. The point is he gets open A LOT and typically works out of the slot, which only makes him harder to stop. Further helping his cause is Michael Pittman Jr.'s health (or lack thereof). Pittman has dealt with the back issue for over a month and seems unlikely to return to form this season because of it. While it is fair to question if Downs can handle the mantle of being the team's lead receiver, I would argue he has already been doing that. Furthermore, defenses do not have the luxury of committing too many resources to Downs since Jonathan Taylor demands so much attention.

Even without the threat of Taylor, it could be argued that he will consistently have the easiest path to success of any receiver on his team for the rest of the season. While the next two games (Bills and Jets) are not great matchups for anyone in the passing game, Downs will easily be the best option for Joe Flacco in both games. The Lions have been among the most forgiving defenses against receivers all season long and have been particularly susceptible to slot receivers. For the most part, Downs will avoid Christian Gonzalez in Week 13 and square off against Marcus Jones more often instead. While Jones has had his moments in 2024, he was targeted 10 times during Jaxon Smith-Njigba's first big game in Week 2 and nine times against the Jets (many of which came while covering Garrett Wilson) in Week 8. In short, Jones is not a matchup to fear.

Rome Odunze (NE, GB, MIN, @DET, @SF)

The entire Chicago passing game has fallen off the rails since the team's Week 7 bye. While the Commanders and Cardinals' improved defenses have played a role in that, very few teams have the personnel necessary to line up confidently across from DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Odunze. This passing attack will find its way again. Moore has been almost invisible over the last three games and Allen has produced only decent fantasy performance all season long. No player has been immune to the demise, but Odunze is the one player who has been the least affected by it. Over the last three games, Odunze has 10 catches for 185 yards and no scores on 15 targets. By comparison, Moore has compiled 10 catches for 100 yards and no TDs on 18 targets. In short, if you have been starting Moore based on his reputation recently, then you should have been starting Odunze as well.

If things are so bad for the Bears, why am I recommending anyone from their passing game? The way that things typically work in the NFL is: 1) talent eventually wins out or 2) an offense that is struggling either figures things out or the play-caller loses his job. While OC Shane Waldron has probably performed poorly enough for the team to question whether he should be allowed to finish the season, one of the worst things a team can do for a young quarterback is to keep changing things up from a coaching and scheme perspective. Caleb Williams has shown enough flashes - albeit mostly against the worst pass defenses in the league - to give Waldron more time to figure things out.

Rookie receivers - especially those who are talented enough to go inside the top 10 picks in the draft - tend to make a big leap after a bye. Odunze has been the Bears' most productive receiver over the team's two post-bye games. He should also remain the opponent's secondary or tertiary concern. This likelihood should mean teams like the Patriots (who will likely have stud CB Christian Gonzalez shadow Moore) or the Packers (Jaire Alexander) will take their chances on letting the rookie beat them.

Odunze's role should only grow over the remainder of the year. If taking advantage of teams prioritizing Moore over the next two weeks does not help the rookie, then perhaps a pair of matchups against two of the three most forgiving receivers in Weeks 12-13 will. Odunze may not emerge as Williams' top option as a rookie, but he has already carved out a target share on their level. With a pair of 100-yard games on his resume and his contested-catch ability, it would be stunning if he does not finish the season strong.

Calvin Ridley (@LAC, MIN, @HOU, @WAS, JAC)

The Titans rank 31st in passing offense at 170.8 yards per game. DeAndre Hopkins (28.8 yards per game) is no longer in Tennessee. Tyler Boyd (23.0) has become an afterthought. Chigoziem Okonkwo (19.9) has exceeded 16 receiving yards twice all season. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has come on in recent weeks, but he has topped 60 receiving yards only four times over his five-year NFL career. The point of this exercise is that whatever number fantasy managers believe is a good per-game number for the Titans' passing game for the rest of the season, there is a great chance Ridley (49.9) is likely to be responsible for at least a third of it.

Quite often in fantasy, the "who else is going to get it" argument is a poor one to make. I will not make it here, although I think this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to do so. In two games since the Hopkins trade, Ridley has been targeted 23 times (15 versus the Lions and eight against the Patriots), which works out to be a 32.4 percent target share. While Tennessee does not have high-end quarterbacks on its roster, it has at least one capable one in Mason Rudolph. (The jury is still out on Will Levis.) While it may be too much to ask Ridley to maintain a target share in the low 30s, who is going to keep him from doing so on this roster? Good receivers with that kind of target share are going to be useful in fantasy almost regardless of any other factor - outside of perhaps extremely low volume, highly difficult individual matchups or horrible quarterback play.

Fortunately for Ridley, most of the remaining matchups are not overly imposing. The Chargers (Week 10) have been the stingiest defense against receivers - by far - of the teams left on Tennessee's schedule. Minnesota (first), Houston (seventh), Washington (15th) and Jacksonville (fourth) rank inside the top half of the most forgiving matchups for receivers. Only the Commanders - with their recent addition of Marshon Lattimore - should scare Ridley's fantasy managers, however, as the Chargers have given up three 10-plus target games (and 14-plus fantasy points) to three receivers over the last two weeks alone (Chris Olave, Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy). Olave had his huge game with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener combining for 41 passes in Week 8. The point is this: Ridley should be considered no worse than a high-volume WR3 with legitimate upside in four of the next five weeks.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid (@IND, KC, bye, SF, @LAR)

Without question, the Dalton Kincaid experience has not been what any of his fantasy managers wanted. The targets have been there lately (no fewer than six since Week 3), but a 58.5 percent catch rate (24-of-41) over that six-game span for a player with an 8.8 aDOT (average depth of target) is poor, to say the least. Still, a 21.4 percent target share for a tight end is always going to be attractive to fantasy managers who are hoping for a difference-maker down the stretch.

Matchups may not matter for Kincaid moving forward since Khalil Shakir should get a large chunk of the work inside 10 yards and behind the line of scrimmage (88.7 percent of his targets have come in those two ranges). Kincaid typically does most of his damage in the same areas. Once he is healthy, Amari Cooper will steal some of those targets as well while also taking the bulk of targets in the intermediate and deep passing game.

With that said, it is impossible to ignore what lies ahead for Buffalo. The Colts (fourth) and Chiefs (second) rank inside the top five of most forgiving matchups for tight ends. The 49ers (22nd) are not a great matchup, but the Rams (seventh) are. If Kincaid's managers have been able to survive this long with his three double-digit efforts and a 13.1-point ceiling, their patience should be rewarded at least once or twice between now and the end of the fantasy regular season.

Ja'Tavion Sanders (NYG, bye, KC, TB, @PHI)

Sanders may not be a familiar name to most fantasy managers, but he is a fourth-round rookie who is probably going to be on many sleeper lists next season. He is the TE18 over the last three weeks and has scored at least 9.9 fantasy points in three of his last four, so he has provided a decent floor despite playing with two quarterbacks in an uninspiring offense. In those same three "good" weeks, Sanders has attracted a 22 percent target share despite running only 65.6 percent of the team's routes (anything under 70 percent for a tight end is a bit on the low end for fantasy purposes). However, he has made up for the relative lack of routes by leading all tight ends with 117 yards after the catch and 56 yards after contact in those same "good" weeks (Weeks 6, 7 and 9). Just as encouragingly, Sanders has run 57.6 percent of his routes out of the slot in those same weeks.

The Carolina passing game is not going to support more than one or two pass-catchers most weeks, but it is hard to say with any confidence that any Panther receiver will step up once over the next month. As a result, we should not be surprised if Sanders plays a huge role in each of the two green matchups above and at least one of the red ones. Kansas City and Philadelphia's cornerbacks should be able to limit the likes of Adam Thielen (if healthy), Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, while Tampa Bay (Week 13) could easily force the Panthers into negative game script for most of the second half. The Panthers may not possess anyone who is a "league winner" this year, but Sanders may be that cheap piece off the waiver wire that can get some managers in deeper leagues through the tough times at tight end and into the playoffs.