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The Postseason Plan - Part 1



By Doug Orth | 11/21/25 |

A large part of my success in 20-plus years in this industry - and specifically in the 19 years I have utilized Preseason Matchup Analysis - can be attributed to preparing for the playoffs before the season begins. Suffice it to say, the notion of preparing for the postseason before everyone else does is a central part of my fantasy philosophy.

I came up with the concept for this column roughly 15 years ago. While I dabbled putting it in the regular-season "rotation," I spoke more about the importance of planning for the postseason in my columns for the next several years before devoting two weeks of articles to it for the first time about three years ago. At any rate, one of the last edges that can be realized in this hobby is identifying whose matchups stand out so much that they could be potential league-winning types.

After discussing quarterbacks and running backs last week, the focus this week will be on wide receivers, tight ends, kickers and defense/special teams units with the best fantasy playoff matchups.

Most of the reason for doing this now - as opposed to a week or so before Week 15 - is because it leaves fantasy managers some time to acquire the assets via trade or off the waiver wire. I will mention the elite options when applicable, but the point of this piece is to line up the "easy" matchups in Weeks 15-17 before your league-mates do.

I understand the majority of the players below are already on rosters, but the bulk of them can be had at a slight discount for one reason or another via trade.

Note: Opponents highlighted in green represent what should be favorable matchups. Opponents highlighted in red represent what should be unfavorable matchups.

Wide Receivers

Here are the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups for receivers through 11 weeks:

1. Steelers
2. Cowboys
3. Raiders
4. Commanders
5. Ravens
6. 49ers
7. Titans
8. Giants

This is very much a good news, bad news situation. Of the seven teams that I feel confident in saying have a good fantasy playoff schedule, most of them have good or great receivers (Vikings, 49ers, Eagles, Commanders, Browns, Dolphins and Giants). So what is the bad news? Maybe only the 49ers have a situation where you trust the quarterback and the current offensive environment. In other words, this may not be one of those years where matchups are overly critical in determining who stays alive and who goes home - at least at receiver.

Of the 10 or so teams with the softest receiver schedules during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith, Eagles (LV, @WAS, @BUF)

Isn't the Philadelphia offense the unhappiest group of defending Super Bowl champions that you can remember? The play-caller stinks, A.J. Brown is unhappy about his lack of involvement, the run game can't get going and the offensive line is injured … does that about sum up the complaints we hear regularly? Included in that mix is the one player who has spent most of his 4 1/2 NFL seasons living a quiet life in Smith. "The Slim Reaper" is probably the one player who will never be caught saying anything negative on camera. What he does every year is go underappreciated by real and fantasy fans alike. Amid all of the chaos about how the Eagles' offense is broken and/or Brown not seeing enough targets is that Smith has five of the seven best fantasy performances by a Philadelphia receiver this year. (Smith has scored at least 14.4 PPR fantasy points five times while Brown has only done so twice.) Smith has been the better receiver this year, and it would not be terribly surprising if the Eagles make an adjustment and move more in that direction as the team prepares for the playoffs.

Anyone who needed a reminder about the secondary of the Raiders (Week 15) probably saw what they needed to see on Monday night against the Cowboys in Week 11. While Eric Stokes is having a decent year, Kyu Blu Kelly is getting picked on a lot. Their primary slot corners are Darnay Holmes and safety Jeremy Chinn and that is working out about as well as most expected. As for the Commanders (Week 16), Marshon Lattimore (torn ACL) was lost for the season earlier this month and Mike Sainristil has struggled in 2025 after a stellar rookie season. The Bills (Week 17) will be much more of a challenge than the aforementioned opponents - especially if the weather is as poor as it usually is in Buffalo in late December - but we need to remember how much Philly is struggling to run the ball. Things might be about to get worse in that regard with RT Lane Johnson (foot) likely done for the rest of the regular season. Smith is the one receiver in Philadelphia who can get open quickly, which is something the Eagles should lean on more often moving forward.

Jameson Williams, Lions (@LAR, PIT, @MIN)

Without question, Williams will not come as cheaply as he would have a couple of weeks ago. I do not think that makes him a bad buy, however. Yes, his three-game touchdown streak will end sooner rather than later. No, I don't think that is going to be nearly the issue it would have been in September or October. Williams has been targeted seven times in each of the two games since HC Dan Campbell took over the play-calling duties and put more of an emphasis on Williams running more horizontal routes. (It is the same kind of thing that led to Tyreek Hill's emergence a few years ago when HC Andy Reid used him more often on deep over routes. It is more difficult for defenders to stay with high-end speedsters across the field - where there may be other players they need to avoid - than it is to run with a receiver vertically. Perhaps just as importantly, defenses cannot put a safety over the top of a wideout running horizontally.) It could be argued that Williams' presence is even more important now with Sam LaPorta (back) on IR. While LaPorta should be back in time for the start of the fantasy playoffs, we also saw him take a back seat to Williams last season. Williams has a chance over the next few weeks to prove why it should happen again. One last thing: do not overlook the fact that Detroit will play indoors throughout the fantasy postseason.

The Rams (Week 15) are more of a middling matchup - as opposed to a good one - for receivers in general, but their run defense has been so good for much of the season that passing-game volume should help the cause for Detroit's receivers on that day. It is also worth noting that Los Angeles has not faced many good or great receivers this season. Ones that come attached to offenses with dynamic running games have fared reasonably well. The Steelers (Week 16) have been one of the best matchups for wideouts all season long. While still not nearly at the level of the Rams, Pittsburgh's run defense has improved to the point where Detroit could need to air it out in this one as well. After surrendering just one touchdown to receivers over the first five games, the Vikings (Week 17) have been much more susceptible to giving up major production to receivers since. Williams (4-66-1) is among the five receivers who have scored at least 16 PPR fantasy points against Minnesota in its last five outings. (That Week 9 loss to the Vikings was the game before Campbell took over for OC John Morton, for what it is worth.)

Jauan Jennings, 49ers (TEN, @IND, CHI)

I would love to include Brandon Aiyuk's name above, but we are about to enter the start of Week 12 and there still is no definitive word on when he will begin practicing. I would like to do the same with Ricky Pearsall, but he just returned to action in Week 11. It is possible the 49ers will be conservative with his ramp-up period over the next month or so considering how much he has dealt with injury issues in 2025. You know it is one of those years when the "healthy guy" is the one who told reporters not so long ago that he was playing through five broken ribs, a low-ankle sprain and a high-ankle sprain, but that is where we are with Jennings and the 49ers receivers.

If you can name a current starting cornerback for the Titans (Week 15), congratulations. What could have been a good group (L'Jarius Sneed, Roger McCreary and Darrell Baker) is now just down to Baker, former Raven Jalyn Armour-Davis and 2025 sixth-round pick Marcus Harris. All of them have a passer rating against allowed of well over 100 and none of them have an interception. In fact, they each only have two passes defensed across their 27 combined games and 497 coverage snaps. By the time the 49ers visit the Colts in Week 16, I expect Indianapolis to be a much more difficult matchup as Sauce Gardner gets more comfortable in DC Lou Anarumo's scheme and Charvarius Ward gets his legs under him following his IR stint. With that said, Indy's offense - combined with the 49ers' injuries on defense - should make this a game where San Francisco is chasing points. The Bears (Week 17) have a chance to be healthier on the back end of their defense in another month, but the only cornerback of consequence (at least from the perspective of being a reason to downgrade a receiver) is Jaylon Johnson. While Johnson (core) appears to be on his way back relatively soon, his status - much less his ability to be a top-five corner again this year - is still very much an unknown at this point.

Other receivers of note with favorable playoff schedules: Wan'Dale Robinson, Giants (Weeks 15 and 17), Alec Pierce and Josh Downs, Colts (Weeks 16 and 17)

Other receivers of note with favorable playoff schedules (who I will likely avoid, due mostly to quarterback play): Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Vikings (Weeks 15 and 16, avoid due to uneven quarterback play), Deebo Samuel, Commanders (Weeks 15 and 17), Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, Browns (Week 17)

Tight Ends

Once again, let's highlight the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups, this time for tight ends:

1. Bengals
2. Jaguars
3. Dolphins
4. Steelers
5. Seahawks
6. Colts
7. Vikings
8. 49ers

Of the 10 or so teams with the softest tight end schedules during the fantasy playoffs, here are the most realistic options of the bunch (in the order I would prefer them over the rest of the season):

Mark Andrews, Ravens (@CIN, NE, GB)

Just starting calling Andrews "Mr. Second Half." Last year, things were so bleak through the first month of the season that people started dropping him after Week 4. From that point on, he was the overall TE6. Of course, we knew (or should have known) the reason for that; he was recovering from a car accident. He had no such excuses or reasons for a slow start this season, right? Just about the time people were ready to rage drop him in Week 3, he goes for 91 yards and two touchdowns in a track meet against the Lions. He followed that with a 7-30-0 line on eight targets the following week before doing next to nothing again for the next three weeks - all during the time Lamar Jackson missed with his knee injury. Jackson returned in Week 9 and so did Andrews, who is again the overall TE6 in the last three weeks. For anyone who dropped him, we should have known better. Andrews is nowhere near as bad as his production said he was in the first two weeks with Jackson or the three weeks without him.

What should be clear now is that he is probably going to be a TE1 for as long as he is tied to Jackson's hip. Jackson does not receive near the credit he deserves as a passer. The chemistry those two have built is strong, partly as a result of being in the same 2018 draft class. Perhaps the only problem - as opposed to a few years ago before Zay Flowers arrived - is that Andrews is more touchdown-dependent. In case there was any doubt about that, look at his game logs for this season. He has earned five targets or fewer in seven of 10 games and three or fewer targets in five of 10. Even for a good tight end in a high-scoring offense, he needs to be highly efficient to be a weekly asset with so little volume.

As luck would have it, efficiency should not be a problem for Andrews in at least two of the last three games of the fantasy season. The Bengals (Week 15) have been absolutely pummeled by tight ends. Their 12 TDs allowed the position is nearly double that of any other team in the league. They have also surrendered a league-high 808 yards to the position. Their 21.9 PPR fantasy points per game allowed to the position is not too far off what Trey McBride (23.9) is averaging over his last three outings. The run defense of the Patriots (Week 16) has been so good that opponents have had little choice but to take to the air. With Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones playing well, teams have resorted to throwing more often to their running backs and tight ends versus New England. Unsurprisingly, no team has given up more receptions to running backs (63) or tight ends (69) than the Patriots. The Packers (Week 17) have held tight ends in check since McBride scorched them for 74 yards and two TDs in Week 7, but no one is going to mistake tight ends from the Steelers, Panthers, Eagles (more about the offense in general than Dallas Goedert) and Giants for being superstars. Andrews may not be a superstar anymore either, but Green Bay is probably even more exploitable than what its current ranking (10th-most forgiving) against tight ends says it is.

Darren Waller, Dolphins (@PIT, CIN, TB)

Waller is a complete wild card, no question about it. First and foremost, Miami needs something to play for before it can be reasonably expected to bring Waller back from IR. Things are actually looking up in that regard, however. At 4-7 now and with upcoming (winnable) games after their Week 12 against the Saints and Jets, the Dolphins could be one game under .500 at the start of the fantasy postseason. It is conceivable that Miami could be one game out of the last wild-card spot at that point. The other factor to consider with Waller is that he is currently on IR recovering from a pectoral injury. His injury history is not for the faint of heart. With that said, what Waller did in four games playing 45.7 percent of the offensive snaps was borderline amazing. In the three games he didn't get hurt in (Weeks 4-6), he was the overall TE5. Being able to muster 10 catches for 117 yards and four scores in three games is good work for any tight end and no small feat for a full-timer. Waller was nowhere close to that.

The Steelers (Week 15) are still paying for the sins of giving up two-touchdown games to Hunter Henry and Tucker Kraft, but those are not the only efforts that made them the great matchup they appear to be on paper. Harold Fannin Jr. (7-81-0) and Noah Fant (4-44-1) are on the list as well, and Oronde Gadsden II probably would have been too were it not for an injury cutting his game against Pittsburgh short. Since I discussed the Bengals (Week 16) above, let's move on to the fantasy championship round. The Buccaneers are actually not a great matchup on paper for tight ends this season, but this would be one game I would trust in the talent and the role over the matchup. For the short time Waller was healthy, he appeared to be the primary target in the red zone. For all of their faults, the Dolphins can be explosive offensively, so trips inside the 20 could become more frequent down the stretch.

Other tight ends of note with favorable playoff schedules (who will be much harder to acquire): Tyler Warren, Colts (Weeks 15, 16 and 17)

Kickers

Let's briefly highlight the defenses that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups for kickers:

1. Jets
2. Ravens
3. Cardinals
4. Vikings
5. Commanders
6. Cowboys
7. Steelers
8. Browns

Kickers who could receive a bump during the fantasy playoffs due to a favorable schedule:Andres Borregales, Patriots (Weeks 16 and 17), Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys (Weeks 15 and 17), Evan McPherson, Bengals (Weeks 15 and 17), Jake Bates, Lions (Weeks 16 and 17), Brandon McManus, Packers (Weeks 15 and 17), Riley Patterson, Dolphins (Weeks 15 and 16)

Defense/Special Teams

Let's briefly highlight the teams that have been the most favorable fantasy matchups for defense/special teams units:

1. Vikings
2. Titans
3. Bengals
4. Cardinals
5. Browns
6. Raiders
7. Chargers
8. Jets

For at least the second year in a row, most of the best matchups for DSTs have landed with teams that may not be able to take advantage of them. The Saints are at the top of the list. Not far behind them are the Giants, Cowboys and Bengals. As a result, streamers or managers without an elite option may need to get out of their comfort zone to make things work this postseason or consider rostering two or three DSTs (far from ideal). Maybe there are people out there who like the idea of competing with a few of their league-mates for whoever is matched up against the Titans, Browns or Raiders each week during the fantasy playoffs. I do not. Hoping the worst defenses slow down the worst offenses is playing with fire.

Texans (ARI, LV, @LAC)

There is not much analysis to provide here outside of how great Houston DST managers should feel about having an elite option face three top-seven opponents during the most important time of the fantasy season. The Cardinals (Week 15) are tied for fifth in most sacks allowed through 11 weeks with 34. They have not exactly faced a who's who of defenses either. The two elite pass-rushing units that have seen (Seattle twice and Green Bay once) have combined for 16 of those 34 sacks. Most of what I just said about Arizona also applies to the Raiders (Week 16). Las Vegas has given up 31 sacks this season and scored fewer than 10 points four times despite only facing one defense on par with Houston. (Denver collected six sacks and held the Raiders to seven points.) The Chargers (Week 17) feel like a much riskier option until we remember how poor Justin Herbert's protection has been in the games LT Joe Alt did not play. (Alt was lost for the season in Week 9.) Even with Alt in about half of their games, the Chargers have allowed 37 sacks for the season.

Eagles (LV, @WAS, @BUF)

Philadelphia is a bit more of a projection than Houston, but it is not hard to see how both squads could end up dominating on defense during the fantasy postseason. It is not hard to pick on the Raiders (Week 15) for the reasons discussed above. Would you rather have Moro Ojomo, Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and Jaelan Phillips OR Stone Forsythe (Kolton Miller should be off IR by Week 15), Dylan Parham, Jordan Meredith, Alex Cappa and DJ Glaze? Exactly. The Commanders (Week 16) are not yet a highly favorable matchup for DSTs, but I think it is only a matter of time before they are with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Washington is averaging 14 points in his last three starts and may ultimately decide not to bring back Jayden Daniels or Terry McLaurin at this rate. The idea of starting any DST at Buffalo (Week 17) in late December would be a bold call and one I would probably only make if I knew the weather was going to be awful. With that said, the Eagles' defense is starting to resemble last year's Super Bowl unit.

Other defense/special teams units of note with favorable playoff schedules: Steelers (Weeks 15 and 17), Saints (Weeks 16 and 17), Chiefs (Week 16), Patriots (Week 17)


Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.