My Draft Plan

Last week on the "Football Diehards" podcast that I co-host with JJ Wenner, I laid out my draft plan for early (1-4), middle (5-8) and late (9-12) draft slots. We spent about 30-40 minutes talking about each area of the draft. Please check it out.

Top 100 "My Guys"

At this point, it should be fairly clear which players I intend to draft a lot of over the next two weeks. I will say a few words about several of them now (listed in order of how they appear on my Big Board):

RB Christian McCaffrey, SF - No one wants the guy who always gets hurt, right? But what if he doesn't get hurt? Do not fall into the injury-prone trap with players such as McCaffrey. Every running back comes with a fair amount of injury risk. His injuries over the last three years were a high-ankle sprain, shoulder and thigh in 2020, a hamstring and ankle sprain in 2021 and Achilles tendinitis and a PCL sprain in 2024. His injuries are not chronic. Yes, he is a 29-year-old who has played a total of 14 games in three of the last five seasons (2020, 2021 and 2024). On the other hand, he was the overall RB2 in 2022 and RB1 in 2023. No player has a higher upside, especially in an offensive scheme that has consistently proven to deliver elite fantasy production at the running back position.

WR Drake London, ATL - While I understand the first round is as deep as it has been in years, London should not be falling into the second round very often. Of course, we cannot expect the small-sample run from London that we saw him enjoy in three games with Michael Penix Jr. late last season (39 percent target share with 117.3 receiving yards per game with Penix versus 24.6 and 65.6 with Kirk Cousins). Would it be surprising if he fails to reach a 30 percent target share and 100 receiving yards per game, though? Darnell Mooney (shoulder) is uncertain to start the season on time, while betting on the re-emergence of Kyle Pitts seems very risky.

Either way, Penix is likely to pass for over 4,000 yards in 2025. Assuming Mooney and Pitts combine for roughly 1,500 receiving yards, where are the rest going? Bijan Robinson? Ray-Ray McCloud? Penix should allow London to display the downfield contested-catch ability he showed in college - something that has been largely untapped with an injured Cousins, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke and Marcus Mariota over his first three NFL seasons. If Penix is the quarterback Atlanta thinks he is and capable of throwing for 4,500 yards, there is a very real possibility that London pushes for overall fantasy WR1 numbers in 2025.

WR Tetairoa McMillan, CAR - If I like London this season, you can probably imagine why I would like a player who I believe is a better prospect than London was and usually comes at a fourth-round price tag in fantasy drafts. While we should not expect McMillan to go toe-to-toe with London in fantasy in 2025, we should expect HC Dave Canales to get the most out of his new "X" receiver. As the play-caller for the Buccaneers in 2023, 30-year-old Mike Evans was targeted 136 times and turned those opportunities into 79 catches and 13 touchdowns. Carolina's primary X for Canales last season was a mishmash of Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson. We saw what was possible with Johnson in that role early and Thielen late. Now, introduce a 6-4, 219-pound player with underrated run-after-catch skills. I like him for at least 70 catches as a rookie and as many as 85.

WR Calvin Ridley, TEN - While Ridley has played with some "name" quarterbacks over the last four years, the jury is still out on at least one of them (Trevor Lawrence). The other was an aging Matt Ryan. Even without factoring in the quarterback play, Ridley has had his fair share of difficulties. Let's review: his 2021 season was cut short by mental health issues, he was suspended for the entire 2022 season for violating the league's gambling policy, he was miscast as an X receiver at times with the Jaguars in 2023 and had to live with Mason Rudolph and Will Levis as his quarterbacks in 2024. The 2025 Titans may not be a world-beater, but there is a lot to like. Elic Ayomanor appears primed to handle "X" receiver duties in Tennessee, which will keep Ridley in the "Z" receiver role he should be in. The Titans also addressed their offensive line in a big way during the offseason and should be no worse than middle-of-the-pack in terms of pass protection. Last but certainly not least, No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward will take over as the quarterback. Even if Ward is somewhere around the 20th-best quarterback in the league this season, Ridley's new offensive environment will be the best one he has played in since his 90-1,374-9 breakout in 2020.

TE Evan Engram, DEN - Denver HC Sean Payton has teased us with his "Joker" label in recent years, but the history of the role has been a good one for fantasy for some time. Players who have earned that moniker over the last 15-20 years include Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Alvin Kamara, Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Shockey. Payton recently confirmed (or re-confirmed) that Engram is a "Joker" for him in 2025. In Payton's own words, a "Joker" is a tight end or running back who has elite rare receiving skills. For those who are not sure that Engram can be that guy, he is just one season removed from a 114-catch season. Remember those days when he could not stay healthy? Last season was the first time in three years he missed a game and the first time since 2019 that he did not play in at least 15. In his two healthy seasons with the Jaguars, he posted at least 73 catches and four touchdowns. It would not surprise me if he pushes for 90 catches and 6-8 touchdowns this season.

WR Emeka Egbuka, TB - Egbuka checks in as a player I am willing to draft as early as the seventh round and I am not sure I have him high enough yet. Yes, Tampa Bay cannot stop buzzing about the rookie, but it is for good reason. It was clear from his time at Ohio State that he was a professional football player in college above the shoulders, but the question for me was whether the athleticism that he displayed at the NFL Combine would carry over to the NFL field. It has. What was not expected was Chris Godwin still not practicing this late into August. Egbuka likely locked up the No. 3 job before training camp started but appeared destined for an outside receiver role given the likelihood Godwin would return to the slot when he was ready. That still might end up happening, but Godwin missing a few games to begin the season will likely give the rookie a month-long audition in the slot - where his long-term home likely is.

NFL teams tend to leave things alone when they are working well, so there is a world in which new OC Josh Grizzard decides to do just that - at least for 2025. It is also worth mentioning that Godwin was pushing for overall WR1 status in his slot-heavy role last season until the unfortunate ankle injury. How long will it take for Godwin to return to his pre-injury self? There is also the small matter of Mike Evans. How much longer can he keep it going as he enters his age-32 season? It may not feel comfortable drafting Egbuka based on how much unknown there is in Tampa, but the combination of Evans' age and Godwin's health makes the rookie the kind of upside option I want on my roster.

RB Jordan Mason, MIN - We expect - and have been told to expect - that Mason will operate as a 1B option in Minnesota who will likely get the majority of short-yardage and goal-line situations in a good offense. Out of 46 running backs with 100 carries last season, Mason ranked third in the percentage of his runs to go at least 10 yards (15 percent) and 11th in yards after contact per rush (3.35). The Vikings boast my fourth-ranked offensive line and I would argue their defense is better than it was last year, so there should be plenty of positive game script again. There's more …

Aaron Jones is not a great bet to stay healthy, will turn 31 in December and is coming off a career-high 306 touches. I think Minnesota would like to get his carries down from 255 to around 200 and have him maintain the same involvement in the passing game as last year (51 catches on 62 targets). If I am being completely honest, I think the Vikings looked at what Detroit has with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and wanted the discount version of it. I think there is a world where Mason pushes for 1,000 total yards and 10+ touchdowns. I am not saying it is likely, I am saying it is possible - especially if Jones misses time.

TE Hunter Henry, NE - I probably will not have as much Henry as I would like when all is said and done this summer, but he will be my next tight end target in whatever drafts I am unable to land Engram. Operating in one of the worst offensive environments in recent memory, Hunter performed at a low-end TE1 level once Drake Maye was named the starting quarterback. In the 11 games Henry and Maye played together, Henry scored at least nine fantasy points eight times and at least 12 points six times. If we exclude the one game in which Henry played only about half of the team's snaps in Week 17, Henry was the TE9 in the 10 full games he played with Maye. Henry was on a 54-catch pace with Jacoby Brissett as the starter but a 77-catch pace with Maye. Even if Henry settles for last year's 66 receptions, he seems very likely to beat last year's two TD catches in what should be a much better offense.