Straight from the man who created fantasy football's version of
the Midsummer Classic, The Scott Fish Bowl is "the premier
fantasy tournament in the fantasy football industry." It
brings together nearly every fantasy football analyst in the industry,
celebrities, former professional athletes and thousands of fans.
There are live drafts all over the country and in several different
countries as well.
Fish is arguably the most charitable person in the fantasy industry.
Along with plenty of help from many others (including but not
limited to Ryan McDowell, John Bosch and Bob Gilchrist), he spends
countless hours during the late winter and most of the spring
organizing this charitable event, which expects to have 5,000
entries this year.
The Scott Fish Bowl is the main fundraising event for Fantasy
Cares - a foundation that has raised hundreds of thousands
of dollars for charity. The majority of the funds raised are used
to buy toys for kids at Christmas, but Fantasy Cares has also
supported dog rescues, hurricane relief efforts, food shelves,
the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence and many other
worthy causes.
That is not the only unique feature of this league. Fish makes
it his mission each year to tweak the scoring system, which adds
another challenging layer of competition to a league where managers
are trying to beat more than 5,000 other competitors.
Speaking of the unusual setup and scoring system, let's look
at what SFB15 has to offer this season:
SCORING/LINEUP
Roster Size: 22 players (11 starters) Draft: Snake (no third-round reversal - as of
yet - as has been the case in recent years) Starting lineup: No roster or lineup minimums
at any position
Passing:
6 points per passing TD
1 point for 25 yards passing (.04/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
Rushing:
0.5 points per carry
6 points per rushing TD
1 point for 10 yards rushing (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
1 point per first down
Receiving:
6 points per receiving TD
1 point for 10 yards receiving (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
1 point per first down
Targets/Receptions:
QB/RB/WR - 1 point per reception on MFL; 2.5 points per reception
on Sleeper
TE - 2 points per reception; 3.5 points per reception on Sleeper
* Managers will earn one point for every target on MFL; targets
will not factor into the scoring on Sleeper
****************
SFB15 marks the first time in my 20-plus years of playing fantasy
football that there are no lineup minimums at any position. Do
you want an all-quarterback lineup? An all-tight end lineup? Eight
of one position and one each of the other three positions? It
is possible here.
"Volume is king" is the theme for this year's SFB,
as players receive 0.5 points per carry (both platforms), one
point per target and one point for reception (only on MFL) and
2.5 points per reception (only on Sleeper). SFB15 remains a tight-end
premium league in which tight ends receive three points for every
reception (one for the target and two for the catch; only on MFL)
and 3.5 points (one for the target and 2.5 for the catch; only
on Sleeper). Just like most leagues nowadays, athletic quarterbacks
are the way to go at that position. Running backs with heavy involvement
in the passing game will get a huge bump with a point each for
a target and a reception.
Before we begin, let's look at how position groups fared (with
this exact scoring setup) over the last two seasons:
2024
Top 25 (overall points): 7 QBs, 11 RBs, 4 WRs,
3 TEs Top 25 (average - must play at least eight games):
6 QBs, 11 RBs, 5 WRs, 3 TEs
Top 50 (overall points): 12 QBs, 20 RBs, 13
WRs, 5 TEs Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 10 QBs,
20 RBs, 15 WRs, 5 TEs
Top 100 (overall points): 19 QBs, 31 RBs, 38
WRs, 12 TEs Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 25
QBs, 29 RBs, 35 WRs, 11 TEs
2023
Top 25 (overall points): 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 11 WRs,
4 TEs Top 25 (average - at least eight games): 4 QBs,
10 RBs, 8 WRs, 3 TEs
Top 50 (overall points): 11 QBs, 18 RBs, 15
WRs, 6 TEs Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 10 QBs,
19 RBs, 15 WRs, 6 TEs
Top 100 (overall points): 20 QBs, 32 RBs, 36
WRs, 12 TEs Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 21
QBs, 32 RBs, 34 WRs, 13 TEs
Now that we know how the positions have fared in this specific
scoring system, let's add some context for more perspective:
- Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the only two players to finish
inside the top 12 in overall scoring in both seasons. If we expand
our parameters to the top 20 in both seasons, Allen and Jackson
are joined by Jalen Hurts, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kyren Williams.
- Seventy-six players scored at least 300 fantasy points last
season. In 2023, 83 cleared that bar.
- Eleven players (three quarterbacks, five running backs, one
receiver and two tight ends) averaged at least 30 points last
year. Nine players (two quarterbacks, three running backs and
four receivers) averaged at least 30 points in 2023.
- Eight players scored at least 40 points in a game four times
in 2024. In 2023, that number was six.
- Twenty-seven players hit the 35-point plateau at least four
times last year. Two seasons ago, that number was 24.
- To illustrate the difference between SFB15 scoring and a more
traditional format (PPR, four points per passing touchdown, no
first-down or carry bonuses, etc.), Saquon
Barkley ranked seventh overall with 356.3 fantasy points with
about 60 fewer points than first-place Lamar
Jackson (416.4). Using SFB15 scoring, Barkley (571.5) topped
Jackson (560.0) by 11.5 points. Hurts was the eighth overall scorer
in traditional formats (325.1). With SFB15 scoring, he ranked
19th last year (439). Ja'Marr
Chase was surprisingly third in both formats. Bo
Nix's 295.7 fantasy points netted him a 17th-place finish
in traditional formats. His 387.5 points in SFB15 scoring were
only good for 32nd.
- The gap between QB1 (Jackson) and QB12 (Kyler Murray) last
year was just less than 13 points per game. In 2023, the difference
between QB1 (Hurts) and QB12 (C.J. Stroud) was nine points per
game.
- Last season, 12 running backs and eight receivers averaged
at least 28 points. Those numbers were five and six, respectively,
in 2023.
*************
While it may be an exercise in futility, I wanted to take a look
at what managers should expect from each of their picks on a round-by-round
basis, especially since what Fish strives for is balance across
positions. I arrived at each average by taking the top 12 scorers
across all positions and assuming they went in the first round.
I did the same thing with players finishing 13th through 24th
serving as the second round and so on. Knowing how many fantasy
points we should expect from each draft pick makes it a lot easier
to guide our decisions during the draft.
SFB15 Expected Production
Rd
2023
2024
1 (1-12)
488.8
504.9
2 (13-24)
420.9
444.1
3 (25-36)
394.3
398.3
4 (37-48)
364.1
366.1
5 (49-60)
342.0
334.2
6 (61-72)
322.0
310.4
7 (73-84)
308.1
296.1
8 (85-96)
284.0
280.6
9 (97-108)
261.0
258.5
10 (109-120)
238.2
231.7
Totals
3423.4
3424.9
Average
342.3
342.5
Perhaps it helps to look at it in graph form ...
In 2024, only Saquon
Barkley (571.5), Lamar
Jackson (560), Ja'Marr
Chase (547.5) and Bijan
Robinson (515) scored more than the 504.9-point average for
first-round players. The gap between the top scorer (Barkley)
and the No. 12 scorer (Baker
Mayfield) was 102 points! In 2023, only Christian
McCaffrey (612), CeeDee
Lamb (541.5), Tyreek
Hill (529), Jalen
Hurts (513.5) and Josh
Allen (498) topped the first-round average of 488.8 for first-round
players that year. The difference between the first and 12th players
in 2023 was 172 points, which was due in large part to CMC having
a ridiculous season. (The gap between two and 12 that year was
a much more reasonable 101.5.)
At the very least, the charts above should give SFB15 drafters
an idea of the point total they should expect (hope for) from
each of their first 10 selections.
In most "normal" leagues, fantasy managers are usually
satisfied if their top starters are averaging 20 or more points
- regardless of position. In SFB15, managers need to treat that
number as more of a bar every one of their projected starters
needs to clear. In 2024, 85 players cleared 20 points per game.
In 2023, 88 players did likewise.
In a league where 132 players (11 starters x 12 teams) will start
each week, the last two years of data suggest about two-thirds
of each SFB15 league will have at least seven or eight players
scoring at least 20 points most weeks. Finding the ninth or 10th
20-point scorer figures to be the difference in a win or loss
in any given week and may be what separates the top team from
the bottom team in many leagues.
STRATEGY
The strategy in this league will be simple: pick the player on
your board who you think will score the most points each time
you are on the clock. It really should be that simple. Perhaps
the hardest thing drafters will encounter in this format is resisting
the urge to scoop up the last player in a particular tier just
to avoid a huge drop-off at a position. Another potential pitfall
for drafters is remembering they do not need to make sure they
come out of the draft with at least one player at each of the
four fantasy positions. A team could take 11 quarterbacks and
11 tight ends. Or even 22 receivers.
It may be helpful to think of one word when drafting in SFB15:
position-less. If the player with the highest-scoring projection
is projected for 300 points and the next-best remaining player
is projected for 285, the choice should be simple. The one exception
might be someone like Omarion Hampton, who many believe will become
a bigger factor over the second half of the season than the first.
Getting an expected (if not likely) second-half push from a player
is a completely justifiable reason to not take the player on the
board with the highest-scoring projection.
The winner of SFB15 will be similar to the ones in most large
tournaments: draft a team based on good statistical projections
and hope they can avoid injuries. SFB15 figures to take that to
an extreme, however. The manager who uses or creates the most
accurate projections and simply follows their cheat sheet the
best (and drafts a team that avoids injuries) will almost certainly
play into late December.
Many managers will be drawn to the generous scoring setup at
tight end and go heavy at that position in the early rounds. While
it is not a bad idea, the data suggests the top ones (Brock Bowers
and Trey McBride) need to be going in the back end of the first
round at the earliest unless they are expected to finish with
90 catches, 1,000-plus yards and eight or more touchdowns, which
is a huge ask.
T.J. Hockenson's 95-960-5 line from 2023 was good for the 15th-best
scorer that year. Sam LaPorta's 86-889-10 line in the same season
was good for 22nd. While Brock Bowers (112-1,194-5) and Trey McBride
(111-1,146-2) fared better last year with third- and eighth-place
finishes, respectively, can we expect either one to repeat that
volume with improved supporting casts (Bowers) or with another
player expected to see a much greater target share in 2025 (McBride)?
I doubt it.
One of the more interesting nuggets from the charts above was
the final point totals - total and average. The fact that both
numbers are nearly identical was shocking. The data is also a
clear indication fantasy managers should be targeting roughly
365 points per week from their regular starting lineup if they
hope to make the playoffs. Teams eyeing a deep postseason run
- since scoring average factors into the math during the postseason
- probably need to shoot for an average of 375-380.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.