For many, Week 17 is the lull before the real NFL playoffs begin.
But for some, this is championship week and for those select few,
we will continue to advise you on lineup decisions.
Wacky Week 17 where DeAngelo Williams
or perhaps Fitzgerarld Toussaint will be an elite play.
Truths
“Truth does not become more true by virtue of the fact
that the entire world agrees with it, nor less so even if the
whole world disagrees with it.” - Maimonides
1) Week 17 starting lineups are always an issue with stars sitting
in preparation for the playoffs or off-season golf.
Example: Le’Veon
Bell (20.2 FPts/G) may have carried you all the way to the
final weekend, but with Pittsburgh locked into the No. 3 seed,
there is no earthly reason he should see the field on Sunday.
Those fantasy owners who handcuffed DeAngelo
Williams or perhaps Fitzgerald
Toussaint will be rewarded against a Cleveland defense that
doesn’t slow down many running backs. Other “locked in” teams
to avoid include; Houston (AFC No. 4), Dallas (NFC No. 1) and
the New York Giants (NFC No. 5).
2) I was right last week when I said
Tyreek Hill would have trouble catching passes against the top-ranked
Denver pass defense.
The Chiefs rookie wideout saw five targets, but didn’t catch
any of them. On the other hand, Andy Reid smartly used Hill out
of the backfield and he rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown on
just six carries. I guess that proves that sometimes you can be
right and still be wrong.
3) Opportunity is the mother of invention.
You can be a great player, but unless you get a chance to show
it, nobody will know. Backups who starred after getting a chance
to start made the difference in many leagues. Dak Prescott, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Tyrell Williams and Tyreek Hill are a few examples
of difference-makers who probably weren’t selected on draft
day.
4) It will take a miracle for the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn a playoff spot.
In addition to a win, the Bucs needs Indianapolis to beat Jacksonville,
Dallas to beat Philadelphia, Detroit to beat Green Bay, Tennessee
to beat Houston, San Francisco to beat Seattle and, finally, the
Washington and the New York Giants to tie. Fortunately, with a
1 p.m. start time, fantasy owners will likely still get their
best effort. You can start Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and even
Jacquizz Rodgers.
5) Unlikely names will frequent the
top-five at each position this weekend.
In 2015, these players posted top-five results in Week 17; Kellen Moore, Ronnie Hillman, Jonathan Grimes, Dennis Funchess and Will Tye. Not a household name among them. The season before that saw
Geno Smith, Jordan Todman and Virgil Green make the list. Moral
of the story: There could be some big totals available on the
waiver wire in Week 17 if you know where to look.
Lies
“Give me just enough information so that I can lie convincingly.”
- Stephen King
1) The difference between Russell
Wilson this season and the 2015 version is his lack of scrambling.
Not completely true. While he has scored 30 less fantasy points
with his feet this season (2.0 FPts/G), he’s also thrown
14 fewer touchdown passes (despite seven in the last two weeks)
and three more interceptions. I attribute both to the lack of
a strong running threat which pulls linebackers up closer to the
line of scrimmage. It’s the absence of “Beast Mode”
- Marshawn Lynch.
2) Claiming Oakland backup quarterback
Matt McGloin should be a viable replacement for injured Derek
Carr.
Sorry, he’s just not “Carr-worthy.” In six career
starts back in 2013, McGloin owned a 1-5 record and averaged 16.1
FPts/G. Carr has averaged 21.0 FPts/G this season. Handcuffs only
work when the backup can produce like the starter.
3) A great receiver will produce no
matter the quarterback situation.
4) If you draft and trade for the
best players you will always win.
Obviously false. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than
good. I won the FFToday Staff league not just because my team
got hot at the right time, but because Brandon LaFell posted career
high receiving yards (6-130-1 and 19 FPts) and my opponent started
Jets wideout Robby Anderson, who failed to score on three targets,
after averaging 9.7 targets and 12.4 FPts/G over the previous
three games. Winning fantasy football takes both skill and a little
luck.
5) Fantasy experts never get anything
wrong!
If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not
laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? OK, don’t get any
bright ideas, I was just quoting William Shakespeare. Thanks for
reading FFToday these past months and I’ll try to be perfect
next season.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.