Injuries continue to destroy strategies. This time it’s
Aaron Rodgers long-term. Perhaps fantasy owners should start carrying
a rabbit’s foot.
Just two teams are on bye this week (Detroit and Houston), but
fantasy owners should be preparing for a tough “six-team
bye week” in Week 8 (Arizona, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Los
Angeles Rams, New York Giants and Tennessee).
With 51 carries the last two weeks, Ajayi's
workload is starting to stabilize. Don't give up on him yet.
Truths
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of
them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.”
- Winston Churchill
1) Brett Hundley can, and will, do
better than his Sunday line of 18-of-33 for 157 yards, 1 TD and
3 INTs.
He didn’t look very good in Minnesota despite all the talent
the Packers have at receiver but it seemed more indicative of
a guy who hadn’t been under center since August 31st and
playing a strong Vikings’ defense. He’s no Aaron Rodgers,
but with a week of practice and a game-plan crafted for his strengths,
he could be a viable low-end option against New Orleans in Week
7 and Detroit after the bye.
2) The squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Frequently, particularly in Pittsburgh. Antonio Brown beat up
a Gatorade cooler and posted 312 yards the next two games. Le’Veon Bell says to an ESPN reporter “I think just over the course
of the season you’ll see the teams that run the ball heavy
win games.” Next thing you know he carried the ball 32 times
against the Chiefs and the Steelers knocked off previously undefeated
Kansas City behind his 179 yards rushing. The next time you see
a thoroughbred complain about his lack of contribution, jump on
the bandwagon and enjoy the ride.
3) Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor
has found a home in the slot.
The player on the field this season is a far cry from the guy
who needed a week off last season to get his head straight after
dropping too many targets. Agholor can release off the line much
easier from the slot and get separation. Carson Wentz is targeting
him more frequently of late and he’s racked up back-to-back
double-digit fantasy totals. He ranks 14th among wideouts who
have played at least three games and has benefited from Alshon Jeffery pulling attention to his side of the field. As long as
Jeffery stays on the field, Agholor should produce WR2 value.
4) Don’t quit on Jay Ajayi just because
he has yet to reach the end zone.
While he’s averaging just 8.3 FPts/G (28th among backs with
at least three games), he’s still getting plenty of opportunities.
He carried the ball 26 times on Sunday for 130 yards. He’s
seventh in rushing attempts (102). He faces two of the worse rushing
defenses in the Jets (21.8 FPts to opposing RBs) and Ravens (20.9)
in upcoming weeks and it was in Week 6 and 7 last season that
he posted back-to-back 200-yard games.
5) It’s time to admit that Dak Prescott
is the real deal.
Last year many said he was playing behind the best offensive line
in the league, had the best running back in the NFL and didn’t
need to force the issue. In 2017 his offensive line lost two of
their five starters, Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t been near as
good and he’s been forced to carry more of the load. All
he’s done is average 4.4 more fantasy points, raising his
average to 25.6 FPts/G which is more than Tom Brady, Alex Smith
and Wentz. He’s ranked second behind rookie Deshaun Watson.
With Elliott sidelined (probably, maybe) at some point this season,
he’ll be asked to do a lot more. I think he’s ready.
Lies
“The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others.”
- Friedrich Nietzsche
1) AP will continue what he started
in Week 6 against Arizona (134 yards rushing, 2 TDs).
I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t think Adrian Peterson
could produce 25.4 fantasy points. I also don’t believe
it’s repeatable although he faces the league’s most
generous team in the Rams in Week 7 (26.5 FPts/G). The adrenaline
of the first game with a new team is gone. The surprise factor
is gone.
2) Will Fuller’s first three games
is indicative of his season-long value.
False. He currently leads all wide receivers in FPts/G (15.4),
but he’s been extremely touchdown dependent. He’s
scored five times in three games, but is averaging just under
53 yards per game, which ranks as 40th-best overall. Since no
receiver can continue at a 1.67 TDs per game pace, his trade value
will never be higher.
3) Carr, currently ranked 29th among
quarterbacks, will turn it around any day now.
Derek Carr certainly didn’t look 100% recovered from his back
injury in throwing for just 171 yards in a loss against the Chargers
and it doesn’t get a lot easier with Kansas City, Buffalo
and Miami the next three teams on the Raiders schedule.
4) The emergence of Fuller as a touchdown
maker hurts Hopkins’ value.
False. Despite Fuller’s five touchdowns in three games,
DeAndre Hopkins has matched that total and his six scores in 2017 have
surpassed last season’s total for 16 games. Behold, the
benefits of finding a franchise quarterback. Hopkins has yet to
score less than seven fantasy points this season after failing
to reach that mark eight times last season primarily due to inferior
quarterback play. Just a guess, but I’m betting the Browns
wish they hadn’t passed on Watson … or Wentz …
or Prescott … or Jared Goff.
5) Everyone expected the No. 3 fantasy
tight end to be Cameron Brate.
Absolutely not. I certainly didn’t expect it, particularly
after the team used their first-round pick (19th overall) on Alabama’s
O.J. Howard. Yet Brate is currently ranked third with almost three
times as many targets as Howard. Brate has scored in four consecutive
games and posted 60-plus yards in three straight. Keep riding
the Harvard man.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.