Then it dawned on me that at least a couple of those guys were in the middle of great runs and then suffered major injuries. Sure enough, I was right on three. Check the charts below (I added Eric Dickerson because he was too close to ignore):

Davis averaged 23.3 FPts/G over the two-year span, then dropped to 8.9 FPts/G a drop of over 60%. Alexander went from 22.2 to 14.8 (33%), Larry Johnson saw a drop of 30% (23.2 to 16.1) and even Dickerson took a huge production dive of 27%.

But in truth, this is a familiar refrain from the past … if you will recall the “Rule of 370.”

The basic 370-carry theorem is: "A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year. Prime early examples of this “rule” were produced by; Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, Jamaal Lewis, Ricky Williams and Jamal Anderson.

Even allowing for the fact that more teams pass a lot and run less, if we look at the last five guys with at least 340 rushing attempts, the outlook is not pretty for Henry in 2021. See below:

In each instance, the runner’s numbers took a significant hit in production even if he managed to play most of the season like Murray and Johnson. All told these five saw a 48% drop in fantasy points despite only two of the five missed significant games (Foster, MJD).

So what are we to do with Henry in 2021?

On the plus side the man is a warrior. He’s been in uniform for 78 of 80 games over five years and started 31 of the past 32 games. He’s rushed for 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns over that span. He’s touched the ball 713 times. He’s tough as nails and runs over defensive backs and linebackers. That’s also one of the worries when choosing him in the top-three (current ADP 3.7) of your draft.

He’s also not part of the passing game which likely won’t change with the addition of All-Pro Julio Jones and a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, who doesn’t use his backs that way. In 2020, Tannehill threw just 48-of-468 passes to his running backs (12.4%). That wasn’t a fluke - it’s by design. In 2019 the Titans threw 64 passes to RBs (of 428 targets) even with Dion Lewis on the roster.

The most important factor hanging over all of this, is the history of injuries to running backs from overuse.

The most recent example of overuse is Christian McCaffrey. He only ran the ball 506 times in 2018-19, but also saw a whopping 266 targets and caught 223. That’s over 700 touches in two seasons. Then in 2020 he played just three games due to injury. The pattern is all too familiar. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Don’t let that be you … or at least be prepared.

The point is, while there is no sure thing, the statistics show selecting Henry in the top-five isn't without major injury risk. Adding a handcuff in Brian Hill (formerly of Atlanta) or second-year Darrynton Evans if he can beat out Hill for the backup role, is an absolute must.

Or my preferred plan would be to grab a lighter-used Alvin Kamara (just 522 touches since 2019) instead.