In the past, Week 14 would be the beginning of the fantasy playoffs,
but with the extension of the NFL season to 17 games, you have one
more week to grab your ticket to the postseason. Don’t waste
Byes: Indianapolis, Miami, New England and Philadelphia (this
is the final “bye week” of the 2021 season).
“If you would be a real seeker after truth, it is necessary
that at least once in your life you doubt, as far as possible,
all things.” – Rene Descartes
1) The start to Justin Herbert’s career ranks above the
True. Just look at the chart below which tracks 300-yard passing
games. Herbert has a higher percentage than anyone Ö including
everyoneís favorite Patrick
Mahomes. The second thing you will notice is how you can certainly
see we are in the era of passing, when rules were changed to help
quarterbacks and coaches emphasized throwing the ball over running
the ball. For dynasty leagues, the question is whether Herbert
and Mahomes can continue at this more than 50% level. Also donít
ignore Joe Burrow
who without much fanfare is among the top-five. Finally, appreciate
the two forerunners who brought the passing game into vogue Ė
Dan Fouts (1973-1987) and Dan Marino (1983-1999).
300-Yard Passing Games
2) DK Metcalf has produced a troubling trend for fantasy owners
the past two seasons.
Heís produces very well from Week 1-8 and fallen off significantly
in the second half of the season. Iíll give him a bit of a break
for having to deal with Geno
Smith for three games this season, but if he doesnít get back
on track over the final five games, Iíll have to consider a new
strategy for next season. I would still draft him, but with the
idea of trading him mid-season while his fantasy value is at its
3) Not starting Lamar Jackson when he plays against Pittsburgh
seems to be the right play in DFS and perhaps also in season-long
They face each other again in Week 18 if your league goes to
the final weekend. In three starts versus their most hated division
rival (he missed one on the Covid-19 list and was inactive for
one in Week 17 of 2019) heís averaged just 207 passing yards with
four touchdown passes and six interceptions. Meanwhile, heís run
for 63 yards a game, but has never run for a touchdown against
the Steelers. Heís also fumbled six times, losing two. Thatís
a mediocre 22.1 FPts/G which is borderline QB1 (would rank 13th
4) Jonathan Taylor season has been so good, heís scored as many
touchdowns as the entire New York Giants offense (18). Also, the
Taylor isnít Christian McCaffrey version 2019 good (29.3
FPts/G), but he leads all running backs in 2021 and over the last
five games as fantasy owners maneuver into position for the playoffs,
heís averaged 31.6 FPts/G. His fantasy owners will have
to survive this weekend without him (bye) before facing the Patriots,
Cardinals and Raiders in the fantasy playoffs. The Patriots have
allowed the fewest touchdowns to opposing running backs (just
four) and the Cardinals are second-best in fewest TDs allowed
to opposing RBs (five). Taylor will have his work cut out for
5) This Kansas City five-game winning streak is ďkillingĒ Mahomesí
True. Another win, another sub 19-point fantasy performance.
Thatís four times in the five-game winning streak and five
times in the last six games. Whatís worse, their next three
opponents all rank in the top 13 against opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
Drafting Mahomes early has turned into a wrong move and we canít
count on him in the fantasy playoffs.
“I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before
one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories,
instead of theories to suit facts.” – Sir Arthur Conan
1) Tom Brady is too old to play in the NFL.
False. At age 44, TB12 leads all fantasy quarterbacks with 335.8
fantasy points and a 28.0 FPts/G average. He also leads the league
with 3771 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes. And that is despite
missing his all-time favorite tight end Rob Gronkowski for almost
half the season and Antonio Brown for seven games.
2) Tom Brady is too old to play in the NFL. (Part 2)
Again false. Brady is also on pace (719) for the second-most
passing attempts in a single season behind a 24-year-old Matthew Stafford (727 in 2012). Itís a little misleading because,
barring injury, Brady should play in 17 games, but adjusted for
16 games heís still likely to throw the fourth-most passes
in a single season all-time. After 11,106 passes, 82,975 yards
and 615 touchdowns passes, his arm is still first-rate.
3) Tom Brady is too old to play in the NFL. (Part 3)
Still false. Since arriving in Tampa Bay, Brady has thrown 52
touchdown passes in the red zone and ZERO interceptions. Brady
is the smartest quarterback in the NFL and when it counts Ö
4) As good a season as Cooper Kupp is having (100-1366-11),
heíll never catch up to Randy Mossí magnificent 2007 season when
he produced a record 385.3 fantasy points.
False. Moss had a great season (98-1493-23), but if Kupp continues
what heís doing (25.2 FPts/G) he is on pace for a whopping
428 fantasy points. He needs just 20.8 FPts/G to match Mossí
season in 16 games and 16.6 if we include the extra game.
5) I saw a twitter comment yesterday on how the tweeter (obviously
a Dolphins fan) was excited that Tua Tagovailoa was completing
passes at an 80% clip over the past three games.
Sorry, not excited. Yes, heís 84-of-105, but the key numbers
for fantasy owners are an ugly 10.0 Yards-Per-Completion (ranks
30th) and just 19.4 FPts/G. A quarterback who doesnít run
and continuously throws short passes and check downs isnít
going to be fantasy-worthy.
6) The more explosive Tony Pollard is the Dallas running back
I thought that too, but the numbers still say Ezekiel Elliott
is the better fantasy option Ö though not by a big margin.
Over the past four games, ďZekeĒ has produced 57 fantasy
points on 62 touches while Pollard has produced 51 points on 51
touches. Therefore, while Pollard is producing more points-per-touch
than Elliott (1.00-to-.895), as long as Elliott continues to see
more touches heís still the better option.
7) Steelers rookie Pat Freiermuth is a nice fantasy tight end,
but heís no Heath Miller.
In fact, his 9.5 FPts/G average is better than Miller when he
came into the league in 2005. Since Week 9 Freiermuth is averaging
12 FPts/G on just six targets per game. That has him ranked No.
5 in the league over that span. As to his future fantasy value,
it will depend on who the starting quarterback is next season
as most assume Ben Roethlisberger will retire at the end of the