If you are still reading fantasy pieces in Week 15, congratulations
on making the fantasy playoffs. The bye weeks are over and it’s
time to produce your best lineup of the year even if that means
sitting a guy you would normally never sit. It’s now “one-and-done”
season and you can’t wait for someone to get hot.
“Love truth, and pardon error.” - Voltaire
1) Over the past three weeks Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence
are top-three fantasy quarterbacks.
Fact. Only Jalen Hurts (34.0 FPts/G) is better than Smithís
28.2 points and Lawrenceís 27.1. Thatís the good news,
that the pair of quarterbacks has unexpectedly brought you to
the playoffs, but their path in the playoffs will be a difficult
one. Smith faces San Francisco No.3 in fantasy points allowed
in Week 15 followed by Kansas City and the Jets (No.8). Meanwhile,
Lawrence faces Dallas (No. 4), Jets and Houston (No.1).
2) If you are searching for a streamer in your first-round fantasy
playoffs because of a bad quarterback matchup think about Mike
White or even Matt Ryan.
Sure, I know it is not 2016, but Ryan faces a Minnesota Vikingsí
defense which has been historically bad the past few weeks and
doesnít figure to turn it around in Week 15. Since Week
10 they have allowed at least 23.4 QB fantasy points and averaged
26.8 FPts/G. And White, if it turns out he survived that big hit
from Matt Milano, will be rewarded with a date against the porous
Detroit Lionsí secondary which allows a league-worst 27.2
FPts/G this season and 31.1 over their last five games.
3) J.K. Dobbins posted solid numbers in his first action in
True. He saw 43-percent of the snaps and led the team with 16
carries for 120 yards and a score. I think better days are ahead
as he still didnít look 100-percent healthy. The real question
will be whether the Ravensí passing game with a question
mark at quarterback (until Lamar Jackson returns) can keep defenses
from stacking the line of scrimmage. Baltimoreís next opponent,
Cleveland, hasnít been able to stop any running game (28.0
FPts/G allowed to RBs) so Dobbins should be locked in as a starter
4) James Conner has quietly been a top-five running back for
over a month.
True. He doesnít get much hype from the MSM, but heís
averaging 20.9 FPts/G since Week 10 which makes him No.3 behind
Josh Jacobs (26.5 FPts/G) and Tony Pollard (22.7). Now, with Kyler Murray (ACL) sidelined for the season, the Cardinals are likely
to rely on Conner even more than they previously have.
5) I was afraid that Samaje Perineís success the past three
weeks would eat into Mixonís fantasy totals when he returned and
it happened Sunday.
Unfortunately true. Perine saw 43-percent of the snaps and poached
a short touchdown run from Mixon (from six yards out) which left
the starter with a below average 12.6 fantasy points, while Perine
earned 9.4 points despite just five touches. Perine also saw more
targets than Mixon (5-2). Damn the coaches for having so much
confidence in their backup.
“Praise from the common people is generally false, and rather
follows the vain, than the virtuous.” – Sir Francis
1) Miles Sanders is the No.2 RB since Week 12, so keep riding
him in the playoffs.
This is a tough one for me, an Eagles fan, but after a favorable
matchup in Week 15, he is a candidate to sit in Week 16 and 17
against the No.5-ranked Cowboys and No.13 Saints. Also, should
the Eagles win their next two games, all starters might be subject
to extra rest as they would have clinched the top seed in the
NFC. In five games against Dallas, Sanders is averaging just 51
2) Minnesota loses when Justin Jefferson doesnít perform.
False. As Week 14 proved, Jefferson can have a huge day (11-223-0)
and the Vikings can still lose. The more correct statement is
- the Vikings lose when Dalvin Cook doesnít perform. Cook
produced 16.9 FPts/G in wins and just 8.5 fantasy points in losses
this season. Thatís a 50-percent drop in production while
Jeffersonís production drops about 30-percent in losses.
3) Tua Tagovailoa has made the greatest progress year over year
than any other starter this season.
False. While Tua has jumped from 17.5 FPts/G in 2021 to 22.2
points in 2022, heís not been the most improved this season.
If fact, he has produced the fifth-best improvement. See the chart
below. If you donít see your favorite starter on this list
itís because his production didnít improve this season.
4) Nothing can stop the Amon-Ra St. Brown train this season.
Iím not so sure we didnít see the start of a St. Brown fade last weekend. In a big Lionsí offensive explosion
where Jared Goff threw for 330 yards, ARSB produced the third-most
points in his wide receiver room. His 13.4 points ranked behind
a healthy D.J. Chark (21.4), Josh Reynolds (16.1) and was almost
equaled by rookie Jameson Williams in his first career game in
which he caught just one pass (41-yard touchdown for 11.1 points).
Itís likely that this becomes a more balanced receiver room
by next season with no clear cut No.1.
5) Justin Herbertís fantasy value peaked in his first two seasons.
False. Herbert has dealt with the following issues in 2022: poor
offensive line blocking, injuries to his top-three preseason receivers
which cost him 22-of-39 possible games and a rib cartilage injury.
His ribs wonít be truly healed until the off-season, but
with the return of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in recent
weeks, Hebert has ranked ninth over the last three games averaging
24.7 FPts/G versus 20.9 for the first 10 games. Those in dynasty
league should not be souring on the Chargersí star quarterback.