It’s easy if you have the first pick… its Christian McCaffrey without question. CMC, at 24.7 FPts/G, was 3.3 fantasy points better than the runner up (Kyren Williams at 21.4) and more than six points ahead of everyone else. No other position had as big a gap between first and second.

Consensus has the second and third picks a choice between two dynamic receivers – Tyreek Hill or CeeDee Lamb. Both receivers are elite and also have very good quarterbacks to get them the ball. Personally, I prefer Lamb slightly over Hill because Miami has more options on offense than Dallas. Hill saw 30.2% of the Dolphins targets in 2023, slightly better than Lamb’s 29.5%, but the team added Jonnu Smith to the tight end room and he’s much more talented and should see more targets than Durham Smythe did a year ago. Additionally, the Miami run game with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane should see significantly more work than the Dallas backfield of aging Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle.

No matter the choice at No.2 and No.3, owners should be rewarded with elite production from Hill and Lamb.

But No. 4, this is where the questions abound.

Do you continue the run on wide receivers, choosing between the likes of Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown or Puka Nacua? Do you look at Travis Kelce? Or do you choose the next-best running back?

I’m throwing out any tight end option.

Kelce’s production dropped significantly from recent seasons and there is no longer a big advantage to selecting him this early. You can get quality tight end production from Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and even Evan Engram.

Now let’s look at these receiving options.

Jefferson might be the most talented receiver in the league, but do you really have confidence in Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy consistently getting him the ball? Jefferson did finish fifth last season, averaging 20.4 FPts/G a season ago with a mish mosh of quarterbacks, so his name must stay in the mix for this pick.

St. Brown finished fourth-best last season at 20.8 FPts/G, but how much will a healthy Jameson Williams with a full preseason of practice steal from his totals? And who among us doesn’t think Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t going to be more involved in the passing game?

As an Eagles fan, I love A.J. Brown, but he has one of the best receivers playing opposite him, a solid tight end and now a top third-down back in Saquon Barkley who will eat into the receiving targets. He’s out.

I also love Chase and Joe Burrow, but how many games have they actually played together over the last few years? Combined they have missed a total of 15 games over the past two seasons. It’s hard to place your faith in injury-prone players this early in your draft.

Puka Nacua likely won many people their league title in 2023, but how much will a fully healthy Cooper Kupp grab from Nacua’s volume?

So I’m keeping Jefferson and St. Brown in the mix for the No.4 selection.

Finally, let’s research the available running backs.

The consensus options here are Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams are top-five with CMC. Each of these backs, like each receiver listed above is excellent, but also come with flaws.

Here’s what we know about Robinson… he was underused last season. We hope the new coaching staff will rectify this mistake, but we have no actual evidence because they haven’t played a game together. The head coach, Raheem Morris, is a defensive coordinator by trade. The OC, Zac Robinson, has only dealt with the Rams passing game since 2019, so we don’t know how he will handle his running backs. He already said Tyler Allgeier will see significant work. Bijan has never seen more than 280 touches in a season… college or pro. So how well would he handle a workhorse workload even if given one?

Breece Hall was the “do everything” back for the Jets. He ran well and caught 76 of 95 targets because the quarterback options after Aaron Rodgers went down on his fourth play of the season were ugly. Rodgers is back and based on history, Hall won’t see the same receiving workload. Aaron Jones, an equally talented receiving back, never saw more than 72 targets with “ARod.” Hall could play just as well as last season and still see a regression in fantasy points due to fewer opportunities.

Jonathan Taylor is old school. Despite missing the first third of the season while recovering from injury, he averaged 15.6 FPts/G, good enough for 11th – best. He hasn’t been involved in the passing game of late, because the team had guys like Zack Moss and Nyheim Hines as backups. Both are gone and Taylor may end up adding receiving to his repertoire. In 2021 he did catch 40 balls. Count as a red flag the fact that quarterback Anthony Richardson rushed for four touchdowns in just three and a half games in 2023. In a full season how many scores might he “steal” from Taylor?

Finally, Kyren Williams finished a distant second to McCaffrey last season. He’s also yet to play more than 12 games in a season. Add in the Rams choosing Blake Corum (Michigan) in the third round of the draft and there are enough red flags here to send me running in the opposite direction.

So we are left with Jefferson, St. Brown or Robinson.

Given these options I have to decide if I want my season dependent on Darnold or a rookie? The answer is no.

We’re down to two.

Robinson’s backfield handcuff, Allgeier saw 206 touches in 2023. While that number should decrease, he’s still going to consume 35% of the workload.

Meanwhile, in Detroit, ARSB should continue to see the same volume. I’m willing to gamble that Jameson Williams’ increase in targets will come from Josh Reynolds’ 64 targets from 2023 (he’s now in Denver).

It’s Amon-Ra St. Brown for me at No. 4.