Byes – None

Truths

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain’t going’ away.” - Elvis Presley

1) Real and fantasy are two completely different outlooks on life and the game.

True. Since Week 8, Joe Burrow leads all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring averaging 30.4 FPts/G with a league-leading 13 touchdown passes. His Cincinnati Bengals are 1-3 over that span of games. Jordan Love, meanwhile, is 4-1 since Week 8, while averaging just 16.1 FPts/G with three touchdown passes and three interceptions.

2) De’Von Achane should buy Tua Tagovailoa that special helmet to prevent concussions and pay a bodyguard to protect him at all other times.

Fact. In seven games with Tagovailoa under center, Achane is averaging 23.2 FPts/G. In four games without the concussion-prone quarterback, he averaged 7.0 FPts/G. The opposite is true for the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. Since the return of Anthony Richardson in Week 7, Taylor has averaged 9.7 FPts/G. JT averaged 18.2 FPts/G to start the season until an ankle injury sidelined him from Week 5-7.

3) Don’t be surprised when I tell you that Jerry Jeudy is the Cleveland Browns’ receiver to have.

True. His target shares for the past three weeks are; 24%, 24 and 22. He’s seen 28 targets, caught 19 for 300 yards and one score. He’s produced 14.3 FPts, 26.2 and 14.5. The Cedric Tillman infatuation is gone (19.5 FPts, 7.7 and 4.8) and Elijah Moore (9.8 FPts/G) is no match for the former Bronco.

4) I blame Trey McBride for stunting rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.’s fantasy value.

In the same way that Travis Kelce has always sucked the air out of the room for all Chiefs wideouts (except Tyreek Hill), now McBride is doing the same in Arizona. The up-and-coming star tight end is seemingly always open and an easier target than MHJ against the opposing team’s best cover corner. Harrison has 66 targets in 11 games and just five double-digit games. Rookie eh? McBride has 80 targets in 10 games and double-digits in eight starts. Harrison still has a great future, it just might not start until 2025.

5) Justin Tucker is having the worst season of his 13-year career.

Fact. His 7.7 FPts/G is the lowest of his career. His 73.9 FG% is the worst of his career. Even worse for fantasy owners, as the Baltimore Ravens offense has become more prolific, they don’t settle for field goal attempts anymore. They score touchdowns. The Ravens lead the NFL with a 78.7% red zone touchdown rate (37-of-47). Tampa Bay is second-best at 69.8%.

Lies

“The essence of lying is in deception, not in words.” – John Ruskin

1) The rise in Saquon Barkley’s production and value will take a chunk away from Jalen Hurts.

False. Just look at the numbers over the last five weeks. Barkley leads all running backs averaging a stunning 27.2 FPts/G (versus 21.4 for his first six games), yet over the same five-game span, Hurts is second among all quarterbacks averaging 28.6 FPts/G (versus 23.2 for the first six games of the season). Both players can thrive at the same time.

2) Jayden Daniels is still the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Not so fast my friend. Take a look at the chart below. Yes, Daniels got off to a quick start, but Bo Nix, he of the 61 college starts, has improved as the season has progressed and appears ready to challenge for the top spot.

3) Panic should be setting in for Justin Jefferson’s fantasy value.

Not panic, but concern. Over the past three games he’s seen 22 targets, caught 13 for 156 yards and zero scores. That’s usually a one-game total. Through Week 9 “JJ” averaged 19.6 FPts/G. Over the same last three games, Jordan Addison has received 22 targets, T.J. Hockenson - 21, Josh Oliver - 9, Aaron Jones - 8, Jalen Nailor - 7, and Malik Washington - 7. The Vikings have won four consecutive games so things are quiet, but if they lose and JJ doesn’t get a bigger share things may get a little crazy. We approve of the “squeaky wheel” response.

4) Daniel Jones can still be an NFL caliber starter.

I don’t believe this is correct. He’d be a very nice backup, who could keep you in a game or two while your starter heals, but he’s not a 17-game starter. Normally highly drafted quarterbacks get a second chance and GMs blame his first coaches, but if Brian DaBoll couldn’t straighten him out, he might not ever be a starter. Of course, I said the same thing about Baker Mayfield and he’s definitely become an NFL-worthy quarterback instead of a below average QB and a commercial sensation. Since Jones wants to go to a contender is he better than; Clayton Tune, Mitchell Trubisky, Hendon Hooker, or Kenny Pickett? If the answer is yes, that team should make a claim.

5) Historically, you ride the Steelers defense through the fantasy playoffs.

No, not for 2024. Though they rank No.12 at 4.8 FPts/G, the schedule is not favorable for them this year. From Week 15-17 they are scheduled for @ Philadelphia, @ Baltimore and Kansas City. Quietly find an alternative. A sleeper option might be the Atlanta Falcons (7% rostered) who play @ Las Vegas in Week 15, New York Giants in Week 16 and @ Washington in Week 17.