Bye weeks are done and the fantasy playoffs begin. You should be
at full strength… unless you start a San Francisco 49ers running
back.
Truths
“I am
a firm believer in the people. If given the truth they can be
depended upon to meet any national crises. The great point is
to bring them the real facts.” – Abraham Lincoln
1) If you roster A.J. Brown, then you agree with his post-game
comments on the need to improve the Eagles’ passing game.
True. The team is 10-0 when Brown plays, and Brown is averaging
15.6 FPts/G for the season, good enough for 13th place, but is
averaging just 12.7 FPts/G since Week 8. The Eagles throw just
25 times per game versus running 36 times and Brown’s targets
are limited, therefore his production is limited. Hurts has one
300-yard game (Week 3) and hasn’t cracked 240 passing yards
since Week 6.
2) Josh Allen should be the MVP, but his failed sneak on first
down against the Rams may have cost his team a shot at the No.1
seed and a bye.
Fact. The team had three timeouts and could use them on defense
if the Bills scored quickly. A passing attempt would at least
stop the clock if incomplete. However, fantasy owners likely didn’t
care whether the sixth touchdown was a pass or a run. But just
think, he might have gotten a chance for a seventh score.
3) Beware of overvaluing Sam Darnold for 2025.
True. My guess is he’s the starting quarterback for a different
team and the Vikings will be ready to commit to J.J. McCarthy.
Wherever Darnold ends up, he won’t have a receiving corps
as good as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
Las Vegas might be a prime landing spot, New Orleans, Tennessee
or perhaps if the San Francisco 49ers decide Brock Purdy isn’t
worth $55 million a season, could be a sneaky good place for Darnold.
4) If the Eagles asked Saquon Barkley to give up a shot at the
single-season rushing record (currently Eric Dickerson 2,105 rushing
yards) for the good of the team he would do it.
Nothing I’ve seen or heard leads me to believe Barkley
(1,623 yards in 13 games) to be a selfish man. Getting the ball
to Brown in Week 15 to make the “diva” receiver (aren’t
all the good ones divas?) happy could go a long way for the Eagles
team. Eagles’ history has seen a QB-WR divisiveness destroy
the team (Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens). The Steelers are
No.8 versus opposing wideouts, No.4 against opposing quarterbacks
and have T.J. Watt rushing the passer, so Brown may see a lot
of quick slants over the middle this Sunday.
5) Joe Mixon might be the biggest surprise of the season among
running backs but he’ll be tough to trust throughout the fantasy
playoffs.
OK, maybe Chuba Hubbard is in the running for that award too.
Mixon has a pretty good matchup this weekend against the 21st-ranked
Dolphins, but should you get to the next round the Texans face
Kansas City (No. 1 against opposing RBs) and in Week 17 face Baltimore
(No. 8). Also, the Dolphins have been better of late, ranking
12th since Week 10 because of their improved offense with Tua
under center. Opposing teams aren’t running as much because
Miami has won four of the last five games.
Lies
“Half a truth is often a great lie.” – Benjamin
Franklin
1) Saquon Barkley has been the best running back since Week
10 (24.2 FPts/G).
False. The answer is Josh Jacobs. The Packers workhorse back
is averaging 24.6 FPts/G. He’s averaging a little over 20
rushing attempts per game and two receptions. Jacobs has also
scored a league-high eight touchdowns over that five-game span.
Two of his next three opponents rank 20th-or worse against opposing
running backs.
2) Cooper Kupp is still the best receiver on the Rams (when
healthy).
True and false. He’s a great receiver AND he’s also a great blocker,
so his value to the Rams is unlimited. But fantasy-wise, Puka
Nacua is taking over as the guy to have on your roster. Since
Week 10 Nacua is averaging 24.8 FPts/G (second only to the amazing
Ja’Marr Chase)
while Kupp is averaging 17.7 FPts/G (ninth-best).
3) It is very hard to be a top-10 wide receiver with a rookie
quarterback.
Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin both said… “Hold
our beers.” For the season, Sutton is No. 11 with 177.6
fantasy points. But since Week 7 when he turned in a zero-target,
zero-catch stat line, he’s averaging 18.9 FPts/G. He reacted
well after the game, saying he didn’t care about stats (are
you listening A.J. Brown?) and Nix has featured him since. After
that game, I believe I read that Nix came to Sutton and asked
for him to talk to the quarterback if he ever went a half without
a target. During the fantasy playoffs, the wideout will face the
Colts, Chargers and Bengals. McLaurin, who has 10 games of 15
fantasy points-or-better in his last 11 starts, has an even better
schedule with New Orleans (25th), Philadelphia (5th) and Atlanta
(31st).
4) Brock Bowers is the best tight end in the NFL.
Not yet, check back at the end of the season. Currently he’s
ranked No.2 (15.8 FPts/G) and sandwiched between leader George Kittle and Trey McBride. I can’t wait until the Raiders
get an actually start-worthy quarterback under center. (Darnold
are you paying attention?) Think about Las Vegas signing free
agent Darnold, and drafting a wide receiver - they would be well
on their way to a solid passing game. They are currently holding
the No. 2 pick… imagine if they selected Travis Hunter (WR/CB
Colorado)?
5) Zach Charbonnet should be the Seahawks starter and Kenneth
Walker the backup.
Nope. Sure, Charbonnet had a career-game against the Cardinals
(ranked 25th against opposing RBs), producing 38.3 fantasy points.
Sorry, one game doesn’t make you a starter. Walker has proven
to be a solid option when healthy and is averaging 16.7 FPts/G
this season. Everyone always loves the backup, whether it’s
the QB with the clipboard or the back who sees limited touches
and is always fresh when he goes in the game. I like the 1-2 punch
in Seattle as is.