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Truths and Lies - Week 15



By Steve Schwarz | 12/11/24

Bye weeks are done and the fantasy playoffs begin. You should be at full strength… unless you start a San Francisco 49ers running back.

Truths

“I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth they can be depended upon to meet any national crises. The great point is to bring them the real facts.” – Abraham Lincoln

A.J. Brown

1) If you roster A.J. Brown, then you agree with his post-game comments on the need to improve the Eagles’ passing game.

True. The team is 10-0 when Brown plays, and Brown is averaging 15.6 FPts/G for the season, good enough for 13th place, but is averaging just 12.7 FPts/G since Week 8. The Eagles throw just 25 times per game versus running 36 times and Brown’s targets are limited, therefore his production is limited. Hurts has one 300-yard game (Week 3) and hasn’t cracked 240 passing yards since Week 6.

2) Josh Allen should be the MVP, but his failed sneak on first down against the Rams may have cost his team a shot at the No.1 seed and a bye.

Fact. The team had three timeouts and could use them on defense if the Bills scored quickly. A passing attempt would at least stop the clock if incomplete. However, fantasy owners likely didn’t care whether the sixth touchdown was a pass or a run. But just think, he might have gotten a chance for a seventh score.

3) Beware of overvaluing Sam Darnold for 2025.

True. My guess is he’s the starting quarterback for a different team and the Vikings will be ready to commit to J.J. McCarthy. Wherever Darnold ends up, he won’t have a receiving corps as good as Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Las Vegas might be a prime landing spot, New Orleans, Tennessee or perhaps if the San Francisco 49ers decide Brock Purdy isn’t worth $55 million a season, could be a sneaky good place for Darnold.

4) If the Eagles asked Saquon Barkley to give up a shot at the single-season rushing record (currently Eric Dickerson 2,105 rushing yards) for the good of the team he would do it.

Nothing I’ve seen or heard leads me to believe Barkley (1,623 yards in 13 games) to be a selfish man. Getting the ball to Brown in Week 15 to make the “diva” receiver (aren’t all the good ones divas?) happy could go a long way for the Eagles team. Eagles’ history has seen a QB-WR divisiveness destroy the team (Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens). The Steelers are No.8 versus opposing wideouts, No.4 against opposing quarterbacks and have T.J. Watt rushing the passer, so Brown may see a lot of quick slants over the middle this Sunday.

5) Joe Mixon might be the biggest surprise of the season among running backs but he’ll be tough to trust throughout the fantasy playoffs.

OK, maybe Chuba Hubbard is in the running for that award too. Mixon has a pretty good matchup this weekend against the 21st-ranked Dolphins, but should you get to the next round the Texans face Kansas City (No. 1 against opposing RBs) and in Week 17 face Baltimore (No. 8). Also, the Dolphins have been better of late, ranking 12th since Week 10 because of their improved offense with Tua under center. Opposing teams aren’t running as much because Miami has won four of the last five games.

Lies

“Half a truth is often a great lie.” – Benjamin Franklin

1) Saquon Barkley has been the best running back since Week 10 (24.2 FPts/G).

False. The answer is Josh Jacobs. The Packers workhorse back is averaging 24.6 FPts/G. He’s averaging a little over 20 rushing attempts per game and two receptions. Jacobs has also scored a league-high eight touchdowns over that five-game span. Two of his next three opponents rank 20th-or worse against opposing running backs.

2) Cooper Kupp is still the best receiver on the Rams (when healthy).

True and false. He’s a great receiver AND he’s also a great blocker, so his value to the Rams is unlimited. But fantasy-wise, Puka Nacua is taking over as the guy to have on your roster. Since Week 10 Nacua is averaging 24.8 FPts/G (second only to the amazing Ja’Marr Chase) while Kupp is averaging 17.7 FPts/G (ninth-best).

3) It is very hard to be a top-10 wide receiver with a rookie quarterback.

Courtland Sutton and Terry McLaurin both said… “Hold our beers.” For the season, Sutton is No. 11 with 177.6 fantasy points. But since Week 7 when he turned in a zero-target, zero-catch stat line, he’s averaging 18.9 FPts/G. He reacted well after the game, saying he didn’t care about stats (are you listening A.J. Brown?) and Nix has featured him since. After that game, I believe I read that Nix came to Sutton and asked for him to talk to the quarterback if he ever went a half without a target. During the fantasy playoffs, the wideout will face the Colts, Chargers and Bengals. McLaurin, who has 10 games of 15 fantasy points-or-better in his last 11 starts, has an even better schedule with New Orleans (25th), Philadelphia (5th) and Atlanta (31st).

4) Brock Bowers is the best tight end in the NFL.

Not yet, check back at the end of the season. Currently he’s ranked No.2 (15.8 FPts/G) and sandwiched between leader George Kittle and Trey McBride. I can’t wait until the Raiders get an actually start-worthy quarterback under center. (Darnold are you paying attention?) Think about Las Vegas signing free agent Darnold, and drafting a wide receiver - they would be well on their way to a solid passing game. They are currently holding the No. 2 pick… imagine if they selected Travis Hunter (WR/CB Colorado)?

5) Zach Charbonnet should be the Seahawks starter and Kenneth Walker the backup.

Nope. Sure, Charbonnet had a career-game against the Cardinals (ranked 25th against opposing RBs), producing 38.3 fantasy points. Sorry, one game doesn’t make you a starter. Walker has proven to be a solid option when healthy and is averaging 16.7 FPts/G this season. Everyone always loves the backup, whether it’s the QB with the clipboard or the back who sees limited touches and is always fresh when he goes in the game. I like the 1-2 punch in Seattle as is.