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A Down Year For Rookie Receivers?

By Steve Schwarz | 8/21/25

This is not your father's fantasy football from 2005. In this new era, we expect wide receivers to get on the field the minute they arrive at training camp. There isn't any "learning-by-watching" anymore. Because the players are better trained at the college level. No more three yards and a cloud of dust, major college football throws the ball just as much, or more, than their NFL counterparts.

The flood of strong-armed passers has enticed college coaches to use them more often and has made college wide receivers much more ready than they were 20 years ago. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. arrived in Week 1 last season ready to help their team and your fantasy team. But 2024 will be a hard bar to exceed or even reach this season.

In the first chart below, notice how much better rookie wideouts drafted in the first two rounds are producing the last five seasons versus the five seasons from the beginning of the century (2001-2005... WOW! That statement made me feel really old because I remember those "old guys" like it was yesterday).

 Rookie WRs: 2020-2024
Rookie WRs 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
1st Round FPts/G 12.0 10.0 9.7 12.4 11.5
2nd Round FPts/G 7.2 9.0 6.5 6.0 8.7

 Rookie WRs: 2001-2005
Rookie WRs 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
1st Round FPts/G 6.9 8.5 10.2 7.4 5.2
2nd Round FPts/G 4.3 5.0 7.1 6.3 5.6

The charts show how, in general, the wide receiver classes are giving teams and fantasy owners’ impactful results much quicker than 20 years ago, but can this season’s rookies possibly match Nabers' 18.1 FPts/G, Thomas Jr.'s 16.5, and Ladd McConkey's 14.9 FPts/G average?

All told, the first two rounds of the 2024 class gave us five double-digit scorers, including Xavier Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. Four more wideouts; Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette and Keon Coleman averaged over eight fantasy points per game. Below the first two rounds, Jalen McMillan helped the Buccaneers overcome the mid-season loss of Chris Godwin.

But the 2025 wide receiver class doesn't seem to be giving off the same "we have arrived, watch us produce" vibes.

Let's look at this year's wide receiver class more closely to see if we can indeed find the next Nabers or Thomas Jr.

Travis Hunter, Jacksonville - You want Hunter to produce like Thomas all the while playing across the line from him? That's a tall order for both the rookie and his quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The former No.1 overall selection, Lawrence has never thrown for more than 4,200 yards or 25 touchdowns. Also, Hunter's attention will be spread between the offense and the defensive secondary. I do think he can reach double-digits, but more like 2024 Harrison Jr. (62-885-8) than "BTJ" (87-1,282-10).

Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina - The eighth-overall pick in 2024, McMillan should step into a starting spot opposite last year's first-round receiver, Xavier Legette, who was a bit disappointing (49-497-4). At 6-4" McMillan is big and fast and should be an explosive wideout, if we see the "second-half" Bryce Young. Young was horrible and benched early on last season, but from Week 10 through the end of the season he threw 12 touchdown passes against just three interceptions and averaged 213.6 passing yards. Hopefully, he will continue to improve. The Panthers defense yielded a league-worst 31.4 PPG meaning the Carolina offense will be throwing early, late and often and in garbage time, when fantasy owners can rack up the points. McMillan should benefit from this and his ceiling is a 1,000-yard receiving season. A good start should make that possible, but beware that Young had a solid connection with veteran Adam Thielen last season, so a slow start might quickly dampen our enthusiasm. A DeVonta Smith-type rookie season is my expectation for McMillan (10.9 FPts/G) with a Jaxon Smith-Njigba rookie year as his floor (8.8).

Emeka Egbuka

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay - At times last season the Bucs' receiving room looked like an emergency room on Saturday night. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan all spent time on the sidelines and at one point tight end Cade Otton was forced to be the leading pass catcher. For that reason and looking to the future after Evans retires, Tampa selected Ohio State star Emeka Egbuka in the first round (No.19 overall). I love his ability and with Godwin not expected to be ready to start the season, I think Egbuka will produce WR2 numbers each game Godwin misses. As a third receiver, however, his weekly ceiling is stifled and he's more of a handcuff for either Evans or Godwin than a stand-alone starter. Again, think JSN, who in 2023 was the third guy with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Seattle.

Matthew Golden, Green Bay - The path is wide open for Golden to step into a primary role right from the start. Former high draft choice Christian Watson (knee) is sidelined for the season and the best returning wideout Jayden Reed (foot) is already questionable for the season opener. Holding the rookie wide receiver back is a quarterback who in his second full season as a starter slid back slightly from his first season. Even taking into consideration he was injured in the season opener against Philadelphia, his passing yards-per-game was down, completion percentage was down and his touchdown passes per game was lower. In 2024, Love divided his targets pretty evenly between Reed (75 targets), Dontayvion Wicks (76), Romeo Doubs (72) and tight end Tucker Kraft (70). In Love's two seasons as a starter, no receiver on the team has seen 100 targets, which is a huge red flag against Golden going big. Think Rome Odunze (8.6 FPts/G).

Jayden Higgins, Houston - The first wide receiver off the board in the second round, the Texans thought enough about this rookie to fully guarantee his contract. That doesn't mean he'll be starting right away as the team has elite Nico Collins on one side and signed veteran Christian Kirk for the other side. But it does mean he should be a significant part of the offense at some point this season as a third receiver. If the OL can improve, C.J. Stroud will find him. In 2023, when Stroud did have time to throw, he supported three pass-catchers. Collins ranked eighth among receivers, Tank Dell was 12th and Dalton Schultz 10th among tight ends. For now, Higgins is more likely a handcuff for Collins, than fantasy starter and barring injury I'm thinking Legette-type results (8.3 FPts/G).

Luther Burden III, Chicago - Keenan Allen is no longer a Bear, leaving 121 targets for the taking, but the team added to both the wide receiver room with Burden and the tight end room with first-round selection Colston Loveland. Despite what you may have heard, quarterback Caleb Williams wasn't horrible last season, he just held onto the ball too long and with his team's inferior OL, suffered way too many sacks. They have brought in numerous lineman and an elite OC as head coach (Ben Johnson) so the Chicago offense should be much improved in 2025. The problem is how much of an opportunity will Burden get with D.J. Moore and Odunze as primary targets and two decent tight ends in Cole Kmet and the aforementioned Loveland. Still, without a quality running game, Williams could be throwing the ball 600 or more times in 2025 and that might make Burden worth stashing on your bench. He won't be playable at the start of the season and barring injury probably only has value in dynasty leagues. Think Jalen Reagor (sorry Eagles fans I know that's a very sore subject).

Tre Harris, Los Angeles Chargers - I was excited about the possibilities for Tre Harris until the Chargers went and brought Keenan Allen back into the fold. Before it looked like disappointing Quentin Johnston and rookie Harris outside with star second-year wideout Ladd McConkey in the slot and little else in the receiver room. Now it's Allen, Harris and McConkey with former first-rounder Johnston lurking on the sidelines. Also, the Chargers are a run-first offense under Jim Harbaugh. Despite having a talented quarterback like Justin Herbert, the team only threw the ball 510 times, which ranked 28th of 32 teams. The formula worked, as their 11 wins was the most since 2018. Therefore, targets for the rookie might be hard to come by on a consistent basis with Harris/Johnston fighting for the McConkey/Allen scraps. Harris' ceiling is Michael Pittman Jr. (7.6 FPts/G mostly when Allen is sidelined by the inevitable soft-tissue injury), but more likely he'll be Jonathan Mingo (5.7 FPts/G).

Jack Bech, Las Vegas - The 2024 Raiders' offense was tight end Brock Bowers, wideout Jakobi Meyers and little else. Of course, the merry-go-round at quarterback among Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder didn’t help anyone. Neither did an ineffective running game lamentably “led” by Alexander Mattison. Las Vegas thinks they solved both those problems in the offseason bringing in Geno Smith from Seattle and making heralded Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty the No. 6 selection in the 2025 draft. Both should be significant improvements. If true, it probably doesn’t leave much opportunity for the second receiver whether it is holdover Tre Tucker (47-539-3) or one of three rookie wideouts the team selected in April (Bech, Dont’e Thornton Jr. and Tommy Mellot). Bech, only because he was selected in the second round, should get the best chance at the No.3 wideout, but early in training camp good things were heard about Thornton. Even if Bech wins this competition, I can’t see him with much fantasy value in 2025.