“We can have facts without thinking, but we cannot have thinking without facts.” – John Dewey

1) The good news is that J.J. McCarthy tried to get the ball to Justin Jefferson on Sunday.

True. Jefferson saw his highest target total since Week 11 (8). It just didn't translate into production. What I see is McCarthy only throws "fastballs" and is a bit wild. Sometimes, you have to take a bit off the throw (a.k.a. touch) and the receivers will do the rest. McCarthy and Jefferson missed one obvious touchdown because the quarterback was throwing it as hard as possible (and two feet over his head) instead of concentrating on accuracy.

2) You waited 74 games, but you finally got the Kyle Pitts you have been waiting for.

All it took was an injury to the top wide receiver on the team and the quarterback. Pitt's 45.6 fantasy points was almost double his previous high. He's actually put together two other solid games in Drake London's absence since Week 13. His target shares the past three games are; 26, 35 and 29. The bad news... London (PCL) could return for Week 16.

3) Justin Herbert is overrated.

Analysts always put him in top-five lists, I guess because he throws a pretty ball. His current 21.4 FPts/G ranks 11th and he hasn't cracked 18 fantasy points since Week 9. His 12 interceptions are surpassed only by Geno Smith (14) and Tua Tagovailoa (15). It's been four years since he's been a top fantasy quarterback. Adjust your rating.

Among QBs with at least two starts in a season

4) Nothing is wrong with Jahmyr Gibbs, he just had one of his worst days of the season at a very bad time.

True. Gibbs saw 13 rushing attempts and seven targets last week, he just did nothing spectacular with them. It was his worst effort since Week 9 against Minnesota. But if you survived the week and advanced, he'll face a middle-of-the-pack Steelers run defense in Week 16 (21.3 FPts/G over the last five contests) likely without J.J. Watt.

5) What started as a "conserve Kyren Williams" strategy for the playoffs has become a full-blown shared backfield.

Correct. For the season, Williams is averaging 16.3 FPts/G and Blake Corum 7.1, but over the past five games it's 15.1 for Williams and 9.9 for Corum. Rushing attempts since Week 10 are 79/58 in favor of Williams with neither much of a factor in the passing game. That's 58% to 42%. Williams should now be considered to have a ceiling limit and not elite.

Lies

“Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.” – Mark Twain

1) Drake Maye is an MVP candidate, but Trevor Lawrence shouldn’t be one.

False. Since Week 5, Maye is producing 24 FPts/G and Lawrence is producing 24.5 FPts/G. Maye is 8-1 over that span, but Lawrence is 7-3. Maye has Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins Kayshon Boutte and a very good tight end in Hunter Henry. Henry is his go-to guy in clutch situations. Lawrence has dealt with injured star receivers most of the season (Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter) and is making it work with Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and tight end Brenton Strange. Time to give Lawrence credit where credit is due. (P.S. - Matthew Stafford is averaging 23.9 FPts/G over that same span).

2) The Eagles' DeVonta Smith is still fantasy-worthy.

He has the talent, but he's not producing results for fantasy owners. He's cracked double-digits just once in the last five games despite seeing almost seven targets per game. In those five games, A.J. Brown (a.k.a. the squeaky wheel) has averaged 9.6 targets and 20 FPts/G. Nick Sirianni has obviously decided to feature Brown the rest of the way, so benching Smith is an option to consider.

3) There is no way to predict which Green Bay receiver should be started from week to week.

In a receiver room which looks to be "packed" (pun intended) with equal receivers; Christian Watson (chest), Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, your choice should be clear - a healthy Reed gets the nod. After missing 11 games, Reed has come back and led the team in targets in Week 14 and Week 15. He's produced double-digits in two of three games this season. He led the team in fantasy point average in 2023, his rookie season, and in 2024. The Packers have two favorable throwing games on the schedule in Chicago (ranked 21st) and Baltimore (23rd).

4) Thank goodness Joe Burrow returned in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Maybe. In Burrow's three games since his return, he's averaging 21.3 FPts/G. In the six games Joe Flacco started for the Bengals he averaged 23.6 FPts/G. For those who start Ja'Marr Chase... he is averaging 17.1 since Joe Burrow returned from his toe injury, but averaged 21.5 with Flacco under center. Tee Higgins has only played one of the three Burrow return games (definition of small sample size) and produced a stunning 27.2, while averaging 16.5 with Flacco. Running back Chase Brown probably doesn't care which quarterback starts, as long as it's not Jake Browning (he produced 9.3 FPts/G with Browning, 16.2 with Flacco and 14.9 with Burrow). Bengals head coach Zac Taylor announced that Burrow will start the remaining three games despite Cincinnati being eliminated from postseason play.

5) Sam Darnold's move from Minnesota to Seattle has been a failure.

While it's true that Darnold's fantasy production has dropped from 22.5 FPts/G to 19.1 FPts/G. he's also the winningest quarterback since the start of the 2024 season. He's gone 25-6 over that span. Also, don't tell Jaxon Smith-Njigba it was a bad move. His fantasy production has jumped from 14.8 FPts/G in 2024 (ranked 22nd) to 22 FPts/G which is No.2 in the league behind only Puka Nacua. I'm just guessing that Justin Jefferson and Vikings fans (14-3 in 2024 to 6-8 this season) aren't happy about Darnold leaving Minneapolis too.